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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #1,721
  • Jun 6, 2011 2:07pm Jun 6, 2011 2:07pm
Quoting Monroe
well I can't predict what will happen, just be ready and predict/anticipate what the reaction is, being aware of the positioning.

We have Trichet, how Greece plays out, what the FED might say and possible big risk off in equities so we'll see...

I am still biased bullish though at this point... we were at the top of a daily channel and got a little over extended clearing stops above 4600 and barriers at 4650. Still at 4700.

Heard of Hedge Funds, ACB, and China on the bid... stops still above 4660/80/4700+ and gathering..

i took a short at 4650...
Isnt the focus of orderflow to try and predict what will happen next? Maybe I got it wrong.

I like to play one day at a time (most of the times playing without news) but still I think if there is no bad news for Euro (highly unlikely) we might see a quick up thrust.

I haven't still gone to the dark side ie shorts but the effing LIFO principle doesn't really help. I had to close the longs before trying to short the market.
  • #1,722
  • Jun 6, 2011 2:12pm Jun 6, 2011 2:12pm
well I only trade it the way I trade it, everyone else can see it their own way. I do try and anticipate the future course of orders, but the not the future itself... if that makes any sense.

Knowing the structure of the market and the way traders react to situations, how they trade, what their expectations/fears/etc are with the info I get is how I try and do it...

I cant get it right every time, but nothing works better for me.
  • #1,723
  • Jun 6, 2011 2:28pm Jun 6, 2011 2:28pm
for example i thought there should be a retrace because we are up above where the big news about Greece hit the wires after the ECB meeting at the beginning of May, even though the Greece situation is not fully out of the clear yet? Yes, even though now the added plus for Euro because of the horrible US data, but we don't know much about that either, it's only fears of QE3 and the end of QE2 and how the FED will react to this.

We don't have confirmation on definite rate hikes just yet, but it's being anticipated. They have to take profit and reload... any stupid news like Juncker saying the euro is overvalued seems like a fade soon enough.... and I'm sure there's orders waiting around 4550/25/00
  • #1,724
  • Jun 6, 2011 2:30pm Jun 6, 2011 2:30pm
well same here. Quick thrust if it comes will come only due to the stops. so order anticipation is there too.

You caught on to the Juncker news before me

So you are basically saying difference in both scenarios: begining of May and now is: The unknown factor. At the start of May it was Greece, now it might be Fed's reaction to sudden (and very suspect) bad data ? Makes sense.
  • #1,725
  • Jun 6, 2011 2:36pm Jun 6, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting Monroe
our brains are powerful, no such thing.... maybe just more practice and observation?
I don't know whats wrong then. It's like I sit down to formulate trade ideas and there is so much crap bouncing around in my brain I can't get any clarity or direction on what to do. I usually spend some time looking over recent stuff from forex live, checking out the Oanda IFR feed, and taking a peak at the charts, and there just isn't clarity on what to do.

I started working out again last week and have implemented strict diet this week so we'll see if the cloudiness I have been feeling is the result of no exercise and terrible diet over the last 2 months...
  • #1,726
  • Jun 6, 2011 2:39pm Jun 6, 2011 2:39pm
Quoting vicky_ag
well same here. Quick thrust if it comes will come only due to the stops. so order anticipation is there too.

You caught on to the Juncker news before me
of course, not like some short term money can't be made with this either...

Quote
So you are basically saying difference in both scenarios: begining of May and now is: The unknown factor. At the start of May it was Greece, now it might be Fed's reaction to sudden (and very suspect) bad data ? Makes sense.

well it's still Greece, along with the FED, and along with ECB policy... obviously more bets on Greece being resolved by June 20th without default/restructuring/whatever and rate hikes in July...

but any talk/comments from officials about greece in the mean time is just... talk...

that's how I see it anyway...
  • #1,727
  • Jun 6, 2011 2:57pm Jun 6, 2011 2:57pm
Quoting Jimmy Jones
I don't know whats wrong then. It's like I sit down to formulate trade ideas and there is so much crap bouncing around in my brain I can't get any clarity or direction on what to do. I usually spend some time looking over recent stuff from forex live, checking out the Oanda IFR feed, and taking a peak at the charts, and there just isn't clarity on what to do.

I started working out again last week and have implemented strict diet this week so we'll see if the cloudiness I have been feeling is the result of no exercise and terrible diet over the...
if it's unclear then you can't do anything I guess. Maybe just sit back and observe, try and work it out, and watch what happens and try and find out why it might have happened so you can better analyse the situation for the next trade. At some point you're gonna have to step up to the plate and get behind what you feel is right and just go with it, you can never be 100% right?
  • #1,728
  • Jun 6, 2011 5:50pm Jun 6, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting Monroe
p.s yea i like talkin to myself in this thread... where the hell did everyone go...
I'm still lurking but, to be honest, what I am doing now is very basic compared to what everyone else is talking about.

Basically, what I'm doing can be summed up in these two posts by Darkstar:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=3095398
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4548873

Again, it's very basic but it's been very high probability. I really don't have much value to add to the forum other than identify the levels I'm going to fade. Unfortunately, that doesn't add very much value to the forum without knowing why I am fading that level, thus no need for me to post.

Anyway, I really appreciate the help everyone here has provided. My account is methodically growing and I wouldn't have been able to do it without the help of certain people on this board. Thanks to those individuals (you know who you are).
  • #1,729
  • Jun 6, 2011 6:23pm Jun 6, 2011 6:23pm
Quoting Monroe
p.s yea i like talkin to myself in this thread... where the hell did everyone go...
I try to stop in for a few minutes a day, but I just don't have the time to post. I'm in the final stages of editing and I'm trying to get everything to the printer by the end of the month. I think if I can eliminate all the superflous distractions, I might even pull it off.

Quoting Jimmy Jones
I don't know whats wrong then. It's like I sit down to formulate trade ideas and there is so much crap bouncing around in my brain I can't get any clarity or direction on what to do. I usually spend some time looking over recent stuff from forex live, checking out the Oanda IFR feed, and taking a peak at the charts, and there just isn't clarity on what to do.
Try eliminating all caffeine and sugar from your diet for a week. I get fuzzy like that once in awhile and its usually because I'm overloaded on the stuff.
  • #1,730
  • Jun 6, 2011 8:50pm Jun 6, 2011 8:50pm
Quoting relyt
I'm still lurking but, to be honest, what I am doing now is very basic compared to what everyone else is talking about.

Basically, what I'm doing can be summed up in these two posts by Darkstar:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=3095398
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4548873

Again, it's very basic but it's been very high probability. I really don't have much value to add to the forum other than identify the levels I'm going to fade. Unfortunately, that doesn't add very much value to the forum...
fair enough.... good to hear things are well for you relyt. I guess I have been bored and want to keep the orderflow kickin'... you guys don't need to feel like what you're posting is valuable, maybe just post some thoughts on your journey or something like that...
  • #1,731
  • Jun 6, 2011 8:58pm Jun 6, 2011 8:58pm
Quoting Darkstar
I try to stop in for a few minutes a day, but I just don't have the time to post. I'm in the final stages of editing and I'm trying to get everything to the printer by the end of the month. I think if I can eliminate all the superflous distractions, I might even pull it off.
nice... final stages... that sounds damn good to me. hope all is well other then that.

@Jimmy Jones... also I would suggest some fresh fruits to the diet...
  • #1,732
  • Jun 6, 2011 9:00pm Jun 6, 2011 9:00pm
Quoting Monroe
nice... final stages... that sounds damn good to me. hope all is well other then that.
Same, and the thing about the sugar,,, gotta give that a go...
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,733
  • Jun 6, 2011 10:14pm Jun 6, 2011 10:14pm
Quoting Monroe
fair enough.... good to hear things are well for you relyt. I guess I have been bored and want to keep the orderflow kickin'... you guys don't need to feel like what you're posting is valuable, maybe just post some thoughts on your journey or something like that...
Good point. You're doing a good job keeping this thread going.

Right now I'm just trying to keep it simple. It isn't the most exciting approach, but it's working for me and I'm going to keep doing it as long as it makes money (even if it is starting to get boring, haha).

I can't say it any better than Darkstar said in posts that I linked. The big thing for me is staying patient (much harder than it sounds) and not trying to fade every single level where there might be stops. I'm getting much better at this aspect and that's what is allowing my account to steadily grow.

I still go back every now and then and look at your posts in the "Smexy Trades" thread, Monroe. You have some nice examples in there. I'm pretty much going after those same 30-50 pip moves. Only about a 1:1 risk:reward but very high probability if you're being patient and selective.
  • #1,734
  • Jun 6, 2011 10:30pm Jun 6, 2011 10:30pm
Quoting relyt
Right now I'm just trying to keep it simple. It isn't the most exciting approach, but it's working for me and I'm going to keep doing it as long as it makes money (even if it is starting to get boring, haha).
I hear you... the only exciting way I know of is dropping down to a 1min and playing a game, but we all know how that most likely ends...

Quote
I still go back every now and then and look at your posts in the "Smexy Trades" thread, Monroe. You have some nice examples in there. I'm pretty much going after those same 30-50 pip moves. Only about a 1:1 risk:reward but very high probability if you're being patient and selective.

cool, glad it helped. Yea it makes sense to me to build this way. What I am trying to do is let them run a bit until I expect there is a clear profit taking level, so sometimes a rigid 30-50 pip TP makes less sense.
  • #1,735
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:10am Jun 7, 2011 12:10am
There have been some great long&short term flow trading this year bc of the crappy Eur and crappy Usd.
An example is the flow of Usd to Chf as a safe haven. The Swiss economy doesn't rely much on the rate of the Usd as much as keeping its currency from strengthening too much against its #1 exporter, the Euro countries.
  • #1,736
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:23am Jun 7, 2011 12:23am
Another good example is what is happening on AUD/USD right now...
  • #1,737
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:26am Jun 7, 2011 12:26am
Eur/Aud following suit
  • #1,738
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:28am Jun 7, 2011 12:28am
indeed... nice flipped resistance to support on eur/aud
  • #1,739
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:37am Jun 7, 2011 12:37am
Quoting Monroe
indeed... nice flipped resistance to support on eur/aud
recent low of 1.3580 to new intra high of 1.3680. 100pip trailing stops are being taken out.
  • #1,740
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:39am Jun 7, 2011 12:39am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
recent low of 1.3580 to new intra high of 1.3680. 100pip trailing stops are being taken out.
cascade style...
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