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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #1,701
  • Jun 3, 2011 3:26pm Jun 3, 2011 3:26pm
hmmm 4650 barriers, also probably 4700... but i'd say a shot at the 4650 barriers early next week and down for a retrace we go... if they can make it...
  • #1,702
  • Jun 3, 2011 3:28pm Jun 3, 2011 3:28pm
Quoting Monroe
yo vicky... couldn't trade today but it sure looks like those bids at 4450 did the trick... (previous high tops from june 1st and the top of yesterdays 1hr retrace hammer... if you wanna get technical...) looks like a good wad of cash I missed...

well we're at the top of a channel due for a retrace... and there is next week's ECB meeting... lets hope for a dovish trichet... though I don't even think mike tyson in his prime could knock this bitch down...
I got in at 4455. I have been looking at your trades to get an idea on how to do this. So thanks a lot.
Given the surprise element in the NFP figures (birth/death adjustment puts value as net -ve figure) I think it will take some really horrible news in eurozone to turn this around.
  • #1,703
  • Edited 3:51pm Jun 3, 2011 3:33pm | Edited 3:51pm
Quoting vicky_ag
I got in at 4455. I have been looking at your trades to get an idea on how to do this. So thanks a lot.
Given the surprise element in the NFP figures (birth/death adjustment puts value as net -ve figure) I think it will take some really horrible news in eurozone to turn this around.
well then I'd have to say thats a damn nice trade....

yea, i think if trichet comes out and doesn't signal further rate hikes using his vigilance crap and some bullsh*t happens with this new Greece bailout plan (which sounds kinda iffy to me) or better yet other problems (ireland, portugal).... that could do some damage perhaps... if all goes well, i see this train going back up to where it dropped off from eventually... I guess...

I'd also be watching for FED talk on their views on this US data... also, last time we were up at 4940 and got that huge sell-off, heavy long spec contracts were at extremes...
  • #1,704
  • Jun 3, 2011 7:29pm Jun 3, 2011 7:29pm
looking over todays forexlive.. as soon as euro broke back into the 4500's you heard about Goldman on the bid... isn't that money... then i read about there new trade calls on zerohedge...
  • #1,705
  • Jun 4, 2011 6:08am Jun 4, 2011 6:08am
Quoting Monroe
well then I'd have to say thats a damn nice trade....

yea, i think if trichet comes out and doesn't signal further rate hikes using his vigilance crap and some bullsh*t happens with this new Greece bailout plan (which sounds kinda iffy to me) or better yet other problems (ireland, portugal).... that could do some damage perhaps... if all goes well, i see this train going back up to where it dropped off from eventually... I guess...

I'd also be watching for FED talk on their views on this US data... also, last time we were up at 4940 and got...
Thanks again.

I dont see how rate increase + Greece bailout could go hand in hand. Though Troika report will give us a clearer picture.

By heavy long spec, I assume you are talking about COT. How much heavy is too heavy to cause a selll off?

GS made the same noise last month too, only to see EUR sell off. Now once the pair has recovered back to 4500 they have again started with their 5000+ prediction.
  • #1,706
  • Edited 11:16am Jun 4, 2011 10:56am | Edited 11:16am
Quoting vicky_ag
Thanks again.

I dont see how rate increase + Greece bailout could go hand in hand. Though Troika report will give us a clearer picture.

By heavy long spec, I assume you are talking about COT. How much heavy is too heavy to cause a selll off?

GS made the same noise last month too, only to see EUR sell off. Now once the pair has recovered back to 4500 they have again started with their 5000+ prediction.
well it's not extreme long holding contracts that cause the sell off, the catalyst is what causes it ( in that case, it was trichet didn't signal rate hikes in june, which is what the market was expecting/anticipating and the greece debt became more severe)... but when you have that many leveraged spec's all scrambling for the exits.. you get some major orderflow so you're bound for a big correction. When you start hearing about "more long holding contracts since 2009" or whatever.. should be a warning sign. Along the way to 4940 there were some decent corrections on greece news so it wasn't like the market wasn't paying attention AT ALL to it and you knew that problem was building in the background as well as possible upset on the rate hike. Not to mention, other risk currencies already started selling off a few days prior to that...

I think it was somewhere in the 90+k contracts on eur/usd up at 4940. after this weeks move, i've seen reports saying that next weeks CFTC report should show somewhere in the 40-50+ long contracts... I'd say when you start getting around 50-60k+ it's starts getting heavy...

yes exactly my point with GS...
  • #1,707
  • Jun 4, 2011 11:56am Jun 4, 2011 11:56am
Hello, all,

I believe that the major price swing happen after the price forecast of big trading firms or major news time. The discussed mindset should be shift to look for the entry zone or cluster of entry price from hedge fund's orders or big guys orders.

If you got a good mindset of order entry zone, then, you can effectively trade with those hedge funds, big guys, etc. without much loss.

Cheers! Good weekend.
  • #1,708
  • Jun 4, 2011 12:15pm Jun 4, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting Jack168
Hello, all,

I believe that the major price swing happen after the price forecast of big trading firms or major news time. The discussed mindset should be shift to look for the entry zone or cluster of entry price from hedge fund's orders or big guys orders.

If you got a good mindset of order entry zone, then, you can effectively trade with those hedge funds, big guys, etc. without much loss.

Cheers! Good weekend.
and who do you think are the large spec contracts?

i wouldn't always go with the price forecast's of big firms... gotta use your brain.

orderflow is the order sequences of those who move the market. I like how DS puts it...

"Orderflow Mindset is a metagame analysis system for predicting the future course of price action. The majority of analysis is on external factors like participant strategy, fundamental factors (news/data/etc) and microstructure processes."

"You're exploiting order sequences and inefficiencies in market microstructure to earn profits. No math or special levels to be found."
  • #1,709
  • Jun 5, 2011 10:10pm Jun 5, 2011 10:10pm
Quoting Jack168

If you got a good mindset of order entry zone, then, you can effectively trade with those hedge funds, big guys, etc. without much loss.
If it were as simple as that I would be very glad, but currencies is a bit more complicated. We could easily hear "happy" news for euro zone thesedays that Greece will be helped (by adding another debt, which is not solving the core problems). What we call the fat finger, hedge fund, etc, put their bet to euro of that temporary happy ending. If we following their level of target or whatever they call important, don't be shocked when in the next days, weeks, or months, Trichet shout with the red warning megaphone to all euro family that their ship is gonna be sunken soon and then suddenly eur/usd drop sharply just like a month ago. I would not blindly "trust" the fat finger forecast, or better say I don't really care much, I prefer more objective data, global economic data for building my own different kind of scenario.

What if the privatization idea from Germany to help Greece is ended up in the deadlock? What if investors risk aversion risen in the negative sentiment of global recovery (because US & Europe problem is not yet solved) where do they move their money? To another currencies such as CHF or JPY? What will be the effect next with the business cycle of that countries?
  • #1,710
  • Jun 6, 2011 8:18am Jun 6, 2011 8:18am
Thanks, Monros, Assassin,

Yes, my view would be too simple, and hard to do in practice.

Few days ago, one news brought my attention about key analysts from major banks may has some big role to move the market. eg. the analyst of Goldman Sach said "Commodities are overbought", then, later, commodity related pairs did fell significantly; then, few days late, same guy said "Commodities are not overbought", then, the market seem be recovery until now. It seems most of hedge funds, eg. big guys follow him or his view.

Yes, We can't blindly follow any forecast of big banks. But, when I hear news, I watch last 5 candles after these news, if the price go in their ways, which would validate the market is following their view. Key price level, indicators or other technical instruments can be used to measure whether their news, their forecast has any impact on price movement.

If price movement happens eg. 300 pips or 500 pips, then, there would be huges of orders dropped into the market. Small traders or retail traders won't contribute huges of orders, so, these orders are coming from hedge funds, big guys, etc. These order flow often has significant role on the market, often keeping market to move in the same direction for while.

I am not favour or interested in scalping 25 pips or 30 pips with order flow mindset or order flow image, etc. I am interested in question: How can we use "order flow mindset" to detect (or figure out) a major turning point (or major swing movement) ???
  • #1,711
  • Jun 6, 2011 9:41am Jun 6, 2011 9:41am
Using big guys forecast & wait market reaction, seems like one kind of lagging indicator. Why don't we analyze first and came out with different kind of scenarios, we have "exact" data like interest rate change, inflation, payroll, policy or regulation change, options barrier, psychological stop, etc, mixed with important "speech" from the regulatory institutions.... it's just like we are investigating a crime case with those evidences and build "motives" of the "culprit" to do the "murder". If the fact is this and then connected with that, should be creating effect like this, etc. Even I'm not good enough processing all of that data but I'm trying to familiarize my self with it.
  • #1,712
  • Jun 6, 2011 11:30am Jun 6, 2011 11:30am
Quoting Jack168
Thanks, Monros, Assassin,

Yes, my view would be too simple, and hard to do in practice.

Few days ago, one news brought my attention about key analysts from major banks may has some big role to move the market. eg. the analyst of Goldman Sach said "Commodities are overbought", then, later, commodity related pairs did fell significantly; then, few days late, same guy said "Commodities are not overbought", then, the market seem be recovery until now. It seems most of hedge funds, eg. big guys follow him or his view.

Yes, We can't blindly...
sup there Jackson... how about trying to figure out what would compel or cause traders to move the market 300-500 pips.... surely there would have to be a reason right?

It's been talked about here...
  • #1,713
  • Jun 6, 2011 11:49am Jun 6, 2011 11:49am
on a side note, looks like that retrace after the barrier hit is in progress like I anticipated... with no data today and a German official casting doubts over on the greece plans like I thought might happen...

are they accumulating in a range until thur?

further doubts in the Greece plan and/or if the fed confirms no QE3?

All ears on Trichet I guess...

p.s yea i like talkin to myself in this thread... where the hell did everyone go...

I know CindyXXXX opened that thread "what's moving the market today?" but it seems like it turned into "whats moving the market next year, fundamentals++...."
  • #1,714
  • Jun 6, 2011 12:04pm Jun 6, 2011 12:04pm
Hmmm cable is acting pretty weirdly today based off the IMF report only. Wonder what's brewing.
  • #1,715
  • Jun 6, 2011 12:16pm Jun 6, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting melvin87
Hmmm cable is acting pretty weirdly today based off the IMF report only. Wonder what's brewing.
cable is just chillin'.... EG goin' up without much in the way of a retrace... talk of custodial names... corporate or m&a flow?
  • #1,716
  • Jun 6, 2011 12:46pm Jun 6, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting Carnegie
OK so many of you have read the order flow - finding cluster of stops on chart, and that's lovely. But I guess I started off in the wrong direction. It appears to not be on the chart, but behind it.

The order flow thread about finding cluster of stops on A CHART got overextended really, even though it has some MIGHTY good information. What some of the guys have said there takes off plenty of time of the learning curve.

This thread I want to be about what's behind the move. What makes the price inefficient? What does disequlibirum mean and how...
WHAT MAKES PRICE MOVE?

i'm very new to trading..but i've learnt enough to feel the need to simplify what i see in price action. All i see in clusters are buyers and sellers fighting for position. Ce que ci que ca .
The price breaks and you ride it or you dont
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #1,717
  • Jun 6, 2011 1:21pm Jun 6, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting Monroe
on a side note, looks like that retrace after the barrier hit is in progress like I anticipated... with no data today and a German official casting doubts over on the greece plans like I thought might happen...

are they accumulating in a range until thur?

further doubts in the Greece plan and/or if the fed confirms no QE3?

All ears on Trichet I guess...

p.s yea i like talkin to myself in this thread... where the hell did everyone go...

I know CindyXXXX opened that thread "what's moving the market today?" but it seems like it turned into...
Well I am here. Still a newbie though

Today closed my longs from Friday and one I had from 4168, at 4653. I am shorting from there on...closed one half at 20 so lets see. No data days are quite boring, the market is so patchy in the movement. So, you expecting a bullish news from Trichet? Given the bomb dropped on Friday, market's reluctance to move in (aka factor or discount in) the bullishness could only mean one thing as far as I am concerned. They see Trichet coming out with some vigilance crap or not so much headway in Greece bailout.

If that turns out to be incorrect...then market will be caught on the wrong foot and we might see some real quick movements towards 5000.
  • #1,718
  • Jun 6, 2011 1:54pm Jun 6, 2011 1:54pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Well I am here. Still a newbie though

Today closed my longs from Friday and one I had from 4168, at 4653. I am shorting from there on...closed one half at 20 so lets see. No data days are quite boring, the market is so patchy in the movement. So, you expecting a bullish news from Trichet? Given the bomb dropped on Friday, market's reluctance to move in (aka factor or discount in) the bullishness could only mean one thing as far as I am concerned. They see Trichet coming out with some vigilance crap or not so much headway in Greece bailout....
well I can't predict what will happen, just be ready and predict/anticipate what the reaction is, being aware of the positioning.

We have Trichet, how Greece plays out, what the FED might say and possible big risk off in equities so we'll see...

I am still biased bullish though at this point... we were at the top of a daily channel and got a little over extended clearing stops above 4600 and barriers at 4650. Still at 4700.

Heard of Hedge Funds, ACB, and China on the bid... stops still above 4660/80/4700+ and gathering..

i took a short at 4650 for a quick one last night.
  • #1,719
  • Jun 6, 2011 1:58pm Jun 6, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting Monroe
p.s yea i like talkin to myself in this thread... where the hell did everyone go...
I'm still around, suffering information overload atm. So I have nothing of value to add right now.
  • #1,720
  • Jun 6, 2011 2:05pm Jun 6, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting Jimmy Jones
I'm still around, suffering information overload atm. So I have nothing of value to add right now.
our brains are powerful, no such thing.... maybe just more practice and observation?
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