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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #25,461
  • Jun 2, 2011 2:22am Jun 2, 2011 2:22am
Quoting Incrediblle
if I am getting correct u guys trade fundamentals here?
not exclusively madam.....!
  • #25,462
  • Jun 2, 2011 4:10am Jun 2, 2011 4:10am
Quoting Incrediblle
if I am getting correct u guys trade fundamentals here?
for general bias, yes. for trading, no.
  • #25,463
  • Edited 5:21am Jun 2, 2011 4:37am | Edited 5:21am
yes, fundamentals always taken into account due to market structure. If you are stepping into battle field, you will be in fed, CB radar. Since we are playing their game, we have to be careful when they issue warnings. Yes, so as piccolo says, for bias and preparation.

At any point in time there are endless opportunities to trade. For us retail traders, we have the privilege to formulate a strategy based on our analysis of the charts within our financial abilities that we can handle (be honest with yourself your capacity and ability to manage volatility of trade). The analysis can be fundamental, basing off of recent levels of strength/weakness ect. As long as you are aligned with your chosen trend.

This is the part where people often become rigid in analysis, catching a river in a bucket.

Like fti says, the best strategies are the ones you come up with, so keeping the basic mindset, develop your own strategy. If fundamental is your thing then go with it, just be careful of the volatility and know the risks that you face when dealing with fundamentals. Also keep in mind that the market will do as it pleases. No amount of fundamental or any other kind of analysis will make your trade right once the market decides not to go your way. imo, the actual trading is done via dancing with the flow.

looks like tornado spared me, had everything ready too...can't find radio though

oops forgot to add, also keep aligned to your appropriate modus in strategy
  • #25,464
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:02am Jun 2, 2011 5:02am
tried to trade the news today and was successful.....
short and long positions just before the news time with their respective s/ls on either sides....

only risk i guess is that it does not hit both of the stop losses.....otherwise it is good.....at least today it was good.
  • #25,465
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:17am Jun 2, 2011 5:17am
short AND long? I hope is not what it sounds like, lest you end up pig. Unless you mean you are trading more than one pair. If that's the case, I would advise sticking to one pair to get the feel of the pair's movements.

Using s/l? You understand that news activity = volatile right? So if volatile and not enough capital to watch babies, why enter the trade? If you put the stop loss there, you are a sitting duck.


Quoting cuthbert
tried to trade the news today and was successful.....
short and long positions just before the news time with their respective s/ls on either sides....

only risk i guess is that it does not hit both of the stop losses.....otherwise it is good.....at least today it was good.
  • #25,466
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:39am Jun 2, 2011 5:39am
Quoting cuthbert
tried to trade the news today and was successful.....
short and long positions just before the news time with their respective s/ls on either sides....

only risk i guess is that it does not hit both of the stop losses.....otherwise it is good.....at least today it was good.
Hello. Please, re-read the thread. First pages ...
  • #25,467
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:49am Jun 2, 2011 5:49am
Quoting fullperson
short AND long? I hope is not what it sounds like, lest you end up pig. Unless you mean you are trading more than one pair. If that's the case, I would advise sticking to one pair to get the feel of the pair's movements.

Using s/l? You understand that news activity = volatile right? So if volatile and not enough capital to watch babies, why enter the trade? If you put the stop loss there, you are a sitting duck.
yes same pair.....volatility right...but to which side.....i did not know and without stop loss it could not have been useful...it was a 1 minute trade.
  • #25,468
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:52am Jun 2, 2011 5:52am
Quoting Fana
Hello. Please, re-read the thread. First pages ...
have read....where have i gone wrong?
  • #25,469
  • Jun 2, 2011 5:57am Jun 2, 2011 5:57am
Quoting cuthbert
have read....where have i gone wrong?
You dont understand the concept. This is the first step. What you presented is something else. Regards
  • #25,470
  • Jun 2, 2011 6:02am Jun 2, 2011 6:02am
yes Fana...i do understand some of the concepts ......i know its something else.
  • #25,471
  • Edited 6:44am Jun 2, 2011 6:22am | Edited 6:44am
Quoting cuthbert
tried to trade the news today and was successful.....
short and long positions just before the news time with their respective s/ls on either sides....

only risk i guess is that it does not hit both of the stop losses.....otherwise it is good.....at least today it was good.
Gambling?
fti discussed it early here.
In the dance, it is recommended to wait 10-20 min to see the main trader reaction before acting.
Otherwise, it is just gambling. It is not that gambling is bad, but winning and losing is just luck.
It does not require skill at all.
Besides, with experience you will see PA going in both direction too and hitting both stop losses then you got either 2 trades going in oppositive direction while losing a huge transation cost or you will have a double wammy of a losing position...etc.
I believe that there is a place in forex factory that discuss news trading. It is not here.
With news trading, you will need all the luck of the world.
Cheers.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #25,472
  • Jun 2, 2011 6:56am Jun 2, 2011 6:56am
thanks for explaining Lusan
  • #25,473
  • Jun 2, 2011 6:59am Jun 2, 2011 6:59am
Quoting piccolo
for general bias, yes. for trading, no.
I find this the best answer to the question, because,
what do you know about fundamentals?
What you read in Bloombreg......?
What you learned at the Uni?
Your personal economics view (Weltanschaung) (that's for you MaMood ?

And what if you are right about your fundamentals view, but the market
does not realize that you're right and insists going to the opposite side?

Rgs,

Textor
  • #25,474
  • Jun 2, 2011 3:30pm Jun 2, 2011 3:30pm
oh, I'm completely out of touch with fundamentals. Seems a while back greece had been cooking books. Talk about self-destructive huh? 2009 debt was 6% 2010 revealed as 12.8%...meanwhile avg retirement age went from 61-65. Still, 10 yr bonds were snapped up in jan 2010, people asking for 4x the amount.
  • #25,475
  • Jun 2, 2011 3:35pm Jun 2, 2011 3:35pm
"And what if you are right about your fundamentals view, but the market
does not realize that you're right and insists going to the opposite side?"

lol, market is always right. Best we can do is go with it, keeping fundamentals in back of head



Quoting textor
I find this the best answer to the question, because,
what do you know about fundamentals?
What you read in Bloombreg......?
What you learned at the Uni?
Your personal economics view (Weltanschaung) (that's for you MaMood ?

And what if you are right about your fundamentals view, but the market
does not realize that you're right and insists going to the opposite side?

Rgs,

Textor
  • #25,476
  • Jun 2, 2011 4:33pm Jun 2, 2011 4:33pm
i think some of the "experienced" traders here should go back and read the first 200 pages.

we all trade different, as long as we have contingency plans, risk parameters, good sound MM in place and a sound strategy that OUR generals devise that our commanders need to implement.

flexible, adaptable, and ongoing objective analysis. dont fight the market and recognise when the market is changing before your eyes. protect the book, and always aim to win.

that is all. like mamood said fti's strategy is the most natural, some peopl here want to make it into my way or your wrong. type of thing


some might trade of a naked chart, some might use some indicators, who is to say who is wrong. the fallacy of TA is basing our decisions SOLEY on a read. one needs to use our BRAIN.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,477
  • Jun 2, 2011 4:41pm Jun 2, 2011 4:41pm
i am not an exepert at all (yet)

but the best advise i would give some one besides read the first 200 pages.

is sit in front of the screen and OBSERVE. observe price movement, behavior, patterns, time of the day when moves happen.

JUST OBSERVE AND EXPERIMENT.

the strategy you come up with is the best for you, fundamentals, correlations, candle patterns, momentum, key levels etc all tools that one needs to UNDERSTAND AND LEARN.

USE WHAT WORKS FOR US, and discard what is not effective.

some trade of the imidiate 1 minute movement, and it flows beautifully, that is their strategy and it works.
some like to feel the terrain in relation to the daily, if that works then fine.


fti says to follow price movement, not predict it


i think we should all be willing to learn from each other, and teach each other. but not so much shun eachother
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,478
  • Jun 2, 2011 4:58pm Jun 2, 2011 4:58pm
yes, well said. It is mind over matter story.

Quoting the redlion
i am not an exepert at all (yet)

but the best advise i would give some one besides read the first 200 pages.

is sit in front of the screen and OBSERVE. observe price movement, behavior, patterns, time of the day when moves happen.

JUST OBSERVE AND EXPERIMENT.

the strategy you come up with is the best for you, fundamentals, correlations, candle patterns, momentum, key levels etc all tools that one needs to UNDERSTAND AND LEARN.

USE WHAT WORKS FOR US, and discard what is not effective.

some trade of the imidiate 1 minute movement,...
  • #25,479
  • Edited 7:07pm Jun 2, 2011 6:34pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting fullperson
yes, well said. It is mind over matter story.
yo fp,
please no quote mind over matter, unless you are wired like me, red beret, or green beret, or commando. You not really understand what that in fact means until you had been thru it in real life firing exercises.

You know i feel so sad. Iam stuggling with my health and the worst happens. One of the readers here i was trying to rescue and train, failed flat out. Only reason was under capitalisation. So any of you, if you undercapitalised, please stay the hell out of these killing fields.

And look at these people. Puts the money hogging bureacrats to shame. All senior managers of the power plant , should be on the front of this que. They probabaly all resigned to take credit for this mess already.

Old People Line Up To Clean Radiation in Japan
http://gizmodo.com/5807188/old-peopl...ation-in-japan

regards

PS; and I have warning for the sorry ass market maker, whos shading my blotter. I have idea of who you are. You think only you have friends in the market? but i have a surprise for your sorry ass. I know which sector yopu working from ろくでなし. You going to blow in the markets, just you watch. And you can stop reading this thread, I have finished my presentation. The レター is already out. Is your choice. Your pinky or sashimi. You like bully small traders huh, i 'll show you 大きなボール.
  • #25,480
  • Jun 2, 2011 6:43pm Jun 2, 2011 6:43pm
Sir Fti,

Sorry to hear of whom ever it was that failed.

I was wondering what dollar figure you would consider sufficient for trading in the manner you have presented?

I have been working on learning this for about a year and managed to keep my little account from destruction so far. I still get stupid on occasions and cause myself losses by attacking or rescuing with a pip value that is to large.

I still love it though.

Thanks for presenting it for us.

Good Trading
Mike
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