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  • #1,181
  • May 30, 2011 4:05pm May 30, 2011 4:05pm
Quoting AlexanderSV
This is true diamond.
Pipeasy thread


Hello, cfabian.
Agree with you that last week had a medium-strength bullish PA on EU (and very bullish on some other correlated pairs, NU, GU and AU) and bearish on UCHF.

So far I see guys want to play counter-trade trades, while waiting when bullish PA on EU will be happening on H4 at 50%, 61.8% of last week fibo levels.
Thanks a lot mate, just added to my bookmarks to give it a read. Lets see what happens as per our agreed hindsight.

NOMASK: An important question for you... If you see last weeks EURUSD, the weekly candle although has bigger body than its predecessor, it didn't go any higher than it, and according to my understanding of "engulfing" it is not "engulfing" any of the previous 2 candles. Would you still consider this as a valid long signal? Or you would prefer it engulfing previous, or at least breaking previous's HH? Thanks
  • #1,182
  • May 30, 2011 7:36pm May 30, 2011 7:36pm
Quoting cfabian
Thanks a lot mate, just added to my bookmarks to give it a read. Lets see what happens as per our agreed hindsight.

NOMASK: An important question for you... If you see last weeks EURUSD, the weekly candle although has bigger body than its predecessor, it didn't go any higher than it, and according to my understanding of "engulfing" it is not "engulfing" any of the previous 2 candles. Would you still consider this as a valid long signal? Or you would prefer it engulfing previous, or at least breaking previous's HH? Thanks
Hi cfabian and all.sorry for post with no chart since i dont have an accesa to a regular computer yet (posting this through my tablet).
I must have mentioned at some point that i would be looking to go long on eu because of the last weekly candles shape and location.
Last down move of it didnt attract me since it happened with no test of a major line (this is usually a sign of a secondary move).but last week it did touch a major line and it was foemomg a pinbar but turned out somethong better maybe an engulfing bar it can be callwd.so my hindsight is up for this week.sorry for spelling mistakes.hard writing on touch screens
  • #1,183
  • May 30, 2011 8:19pm May 30, 2011 8:19pm
after a predictably dead day yesterday, when I hope everyone practiced their golf swing rather than traded , today seems to be kicking in last week`s hindsight very nicely indeed (so far!!)
  • #1,184
  • May 31, 2011 1:52am May 31, 2011 1:52am
Other than EU, NZDUS also looks promising.

It broke 0.8000 major level last week and is now breaking the resistence level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.PNG Size: 72 KB
  • #1,185
  • May 31, 2011 3:08am May 31, 2011 3:08am
Quoting sam69
hi people, long time no trade,me short on eu,please comments!
positio died @be+1,after alittle pullback /35pips or so/ went up again,strong bull atm,so no need to look for ct,missed long setup this morning by asia,waiting for retrace...
Money is made by sitting, not trading. Jesse L. Livermore
  • #1,186
  • May 31, 2011 4:25am May 31, 2011 4:25am
Quoting cfabian
Thanks a lot mate, just added to my bookmarks to give it a read. Lets see what happens as per our agreed hindsight.

NOMASK: An important question for you... If you see last weeks EURUSD, the weekly candle although has bigger body than its predecessor, it didn't go any higher than it, and according to my understanding of "engulfing" it is not "engulfing" any of the previous 2 candles. Would you still consider this as a valid long signal? Or you would prefer it engulfing previous, or at least breaking previous's HH? Thanks

Cfabian, in addition to Nomask's reply I would like to share few hints I learnt from Pipeasy and other guys.
1. Almost engulfing = attracts higher risk, so entry is possible with lower lotsize or with same lotsize, realizing that there is a higher risk of fault for such entry.
2. "Anticipation" (for details - check Pipeasy's thread).
When you see a bar, unclosed yet, or closing near the open of the prev. opposite bar, you can anticipate that price move was not sporadic and rather than not, it'll continue running in the direction of last move.
Beautiful example was in Pipeasy's thread, when if we see a current H4 or H1 candle, unclosed yet, near the level where it engulfes prev. opposite candle, we can take this fact as a valid signal to go to lower TF for entry, but assuming we're taking higher risk, as candle is still not closed.
3. Entry zones - as Pipeasy taught, we're not looking for exact pip for entry, instead we're looking for certain key areas near important levels.


It's "ALMOST" everywhere in life. It means there is a risk everywhere. Our target is to identify where we can accept the risk, at which cost, and what for. Not always risk taking is good. Out of market is also a good alternative from time to time. Overconfidence attracts lower profit. Not enough confidence attracts unjustified high risk.
  • #1,187
  • May 31, 2011 8:01am May 31, 2011 8:01am
Cfabian,
I agree with you- I mean short the dollar, so long EUR/USD.

Quoting cfabian
gss,
Iwonder why you keep your hindsight short for EU? Last week is a bullish pinbar from the 1.4 level (mayor line). I've my chart marked long waiting for momentum bar on H4 probably tomorrow or Wednesday.

I have market to short USDCHF though.

Comments appreciated.

BTW, no I havent read graems (pipeasy) thread. Do you have the name of the thread or the link to it?

Cheers
  • #1,188
  • May 31, 2011 12:00pm May 31, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting AlexanderSV
Cfabian, in addition to Nomask's reply I would like to share few hints I learnt from Pipeasy and other guys.
1. Almost engulfing = attracts higher risk, so entry is possible with lower lotsize or with same lotsize, realizing that there is a higher risk of fault for such entry.
2. "Anticipation" (for details - check Pipeasy's thread).
When you see a bar, unclosed yet, or closing near the open of the prev. opposite bar, you can anticipate that price move was not sporadic and rather than not, it'll continue running in the direction of last move.
Beautiful...
Thanks a lot Alexander, was a very good addition.
  • #1,189
  • Jun 1, 2011 6:58pm Jun 1, 2011 6:58pm
Quoting tradista
Indeed, my week entry NZDCAD is still alive, now almost reaching 200 pips!
My first big one, man
Thanks Nomask for teaching us your amazing method !!
This is another position that died a BE.
Next...
  • #1,190
  • Jun 1, 2011 10:44pm Jun 1, 2011 10:44pm
Nomask, you're so quiet lately. We need you here!!! What is your opinion on current conditions? We want to see your marked charts
  • #1,191
  • Jun 2, 2011 1:13am Jun 2, 2011 1:13am
...long...
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Money is made by sitting, not trading. Jesse L. Livermore
  • #1,192
  • Jun 2, 2011 3:03am Jun 2, 2011 3:03am
Hello, guys.
On this week. Few facts to consider:
1. It's a start of new month.
2. It's a NFP release week.
Assumption: ranging moves with no clear established direction, or very low trend strength.
Result: positions opened are likely to end as losses or died at BE.
Next week we will see how market will interpret this week NFP and, possibly, make a choice to continue current direction (continuation of upmove), or to continue with last monthly candle, which is bearish.

So, IMHO we have a contradiction in hindsights, which is bearish for MN and bullish for WK. Pipeasy taught to avoid such pairs with contradicting hindsights, because this contradiction means price may go either way. But also he taught to "participate" - make low risk entries at suitable opportunities, in order to catch the train in the beginning of new trend.

Personally, I find trading in a week of NFP is purely overtrading, discouraging and creating anxiety and frustration on most occasions. Chances ARE NOT in our favor most of the times. Rarely when NFP week has a clear established trend, which continues by Friday NFP release with even more move in that trend direction. That pre-NFP days trend means that traders were anticipating NFP results and bought on rumors many days before the actual NFP release.
  • #1,193
  • Jun 2, 2011 3:52am Jun 2, 2011 3:52am
hit almost sl, now set be+1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money is made by sitting, not trading. Jesse L. Livermore
  • #1,194
  • Jun 2, 2011 1:12pm Jun 2, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting sam69
hit almost sl, now set be+1
trade closed @4500,will check next week after nonfarm...
Money is made by sitting, not trading. Jesse L. Livermore
  • #1,195
  • Edited 2:19am Jun 3, 2011 1:57am | Edited 2:19am
EU wanna hold or closed? hard to decide....

closed already
  • #1,196
  • Jun 3, 2011 11:43am Jun 3, 2011 11:43am
Quoting sam69
trade closed @4500,will check next week after nonfarm...
This is probably the first big step you've made to reaching a 1000 pip winner. I would certainly hope you are squirming in your chair today! lol. No offense of course.

I also wanted to share a trade I missed today. I love traveling Europe and experiencing a different culture but sometimes when I see perfect setups like this after the fact I wish I was at home! Oh well the market will always be there for me and I'm not going to be in Europe again anytime soon.

Have a good weekend all!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #1,197
  • Jun 3, 2011 8:46pm Jun 3, 2011 8:46pm
If you have 2 undesirable outcomes which makes you feel worse?*

1. You get edgy about a trade (possibly after a few back-to-back losses) and take profit of , say, 80 pips, then shortly after see that if you had stayed in you would be hundreds of pips in profit and rising...

2. You keep your S.L. at B.E. and then get stopped out -making no profit at all.

I believe that getting the right mindset and training youself to take option 2 over option 1 is one of the key battles of this thread`s followers .
I am always looking for real-life-trading examples as to why sticking to your guns and taking either option 2 or infinite profits is better than option 1 overall -- fortunately most weeks will throw up more than 1 concrete eample of this which helps put steel into my backbone..
  • #1,198
  • Jun 4, 2011 11:59pm Jun 4, 2011 11:59pm
Quoting gssintokyo
If you have 2 undesirable outcomes which makes you feel worse?*

1. You get edgy about a trade (possibly after a few back-to-back losses) and take profit of , say, 80 pips, then shortly after see that if you had stayed in you would be hundreds of pips in profit and rising...

2. You keep your S.L. at B.E. and then get stopped out -making no profit at all.

I believe that getting the right mindset and training youself to take option 2 over option 1 is one of the key battles of this thread`s followers .
I am always looking for real-life-trading...
You've hit the nail right on the head. If you do #1 and take that 80 pips to the bank, it won't usually pay for the pips that it cost to make the long term positions/legs that you require to succeed. How many failed entries are paid for in full from one position cashed out at 1000 pips? That's the beauty of this method.

Also, please do as I say, not as I do. By the end of April, I was net profitable in my account due to waiting to cash out one position until the big EUR/USD move to the minor line of 1.45. I also traded a lot less at the time. Nomask (where are you, Master???) would have been proud of each low-risk entry that I took.

Fast forward to NOW: I've taken some small wins and MANY losses and in the end, I've lost a fair amount of money. Even with the overtrading, the "revenge" trades, increasing my lot size unnecesarrily, and the frequent times in the month of May that I felt confident enough to place a trade that Nomask wouldn't have done in a million years, I still would have had all of my losses paid for with ONE big move. Although I was net profitable by the end of April, if I let my 2 other positions run to that minor line of 1.45 instead of closing them out at 100 pips in April (because "no one became broke taking profits", right?), I would be net profitable right now.

The moral of this story is to listen to the original poster's ideas. And listen to Graeme, too. The small chunks of the pie won't pay the operational costs of your business. Let it die on BE (not BE +1) and take your 500 pips (minor line, if you must ) or 1000 pip (major line) position all the way to the bank. If a position dies at BE after reaching 200 pips, who cares? The position didn't want to "go the distance" for you so to hell with it!

I hope that I have learned my lesson this time. I deposited last week the amount that I lost for more available margin and another go-round. I wouldn't have had to do that if I just followed scenario #2.

The good news? Last week I added these 3 positions with Nomask's method:

As of today:
short USD/JPY: +208 pips
long EUR/USD: +295 pips
short USD/CAD: +56 pips

My vow to you, myself, and Charlie Sheen:

I will let them all die on BE before I close them out in the rare chance that they keep going in my desired direction. I will also keep my lot size constant and increase the amount of my positions in the market. I have also found that the more I trade, the more I lose. So I will only recognize a 4 hour candle that basically screams "NOMASK ENTRY" to me and everyone else here. No more taking chances. No more throwing sh*t against a wall and hoping it sticks. I think I've learned my lesson now.

I hope this truly personal post helps someone come to this realization before losing their shirt in this market. I also hope that by publically posting my promise to myself and this thread, that it solidifies my commitment to keep trading this amazing method that requires nothing but discipline, patience and a level head to become extremely profitable.

Happy pips to each of you!
  • #1,199
  • Jun 5, 2011 1:34am Jun 5, 2011 1:34am
JasonC,
Without wanting to sound too much like Oprah-- thanks for sharing, mate.

I reckon there is a good chance at least one of your current positions could still be alive next week-- and after that, the sky's the limit!

greg
  • #1,200
  • Jun 5, 2011 4:21am Jun 5, 2011 4:21am
Thanks so much for your honesty. It is so good for me to read as I can fully relate. I have ready the first and last page of this thread. Now to start at the beginning again and try to learn, absorb, apply, and get it ingrained into my subconscious. Have a good week.
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