how about the sex of the baby before he is even born???
eheh sorry dude couldn't resist...
- #13,641
- Jun 1, 2011 9:40am Jun 1, 2011 9:40am
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 11,327 Posts
- #13,642
- Jun 1, 2011 9:45am Jun 1, 2011 9:45am
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Indeed, I agree. Let's have some intellectual discussion I didn't have it with someone from a while.
Sorry wormie if I am spoiling your thread, don't intend too
Now we both know China owns 50 -70 percent of USA debt?
They are funding US debts as part of secret agreement between US-China.
If they don't buy the debt, US dollar will be cheap sh*t as no one will buy the debt and US companies will not outsource manufacturing to China or IT/CallCentre supp to India dollar being cheap and labour available locally. US is the only country in the world who has enough commodity prduced locally and still consumes more, ask for import.
Europe has to raise rates, not for Germany My Dear but for China!!
Yes, China has bought Greece, Irish, Spanish & Portugal debt. You name it and they own portion of the sovereign debt of country, even UK!!
However, you are wrong to assume they are converting all to currencies!! Let me clarify, China is the one who has invested billions in buying commodities....They have bought all Metals in the past 5 yrs. It would not take a genius to know we have limited supply of Metal on earth which we might run out of at some point in time. Regardless of where the dollar goes, Commodities will go high only. We have Human population increasing everyday and falling short of land to build infrastructure. Unless we have a natural disaster, I bet China will be the only country who controls commodities and it's prices in the nest 5-10 yrs from now. China is way to smart then what Japan was. Remember, currency is originated from China!!
Back to Charts, all equity indices have tan'kd 1% but no MAJOR effect on currency and OIL, What does this tells us, eh?
Sorry wormie if I am spoiling your thread, don't intend too
Now we both know China owns 50 -70 percent of USA debt?
They are funding US debts as part of secret agreement between US-China.
If they don't buy the debt, US dollar will be cheap sh*t as no one will buy the debt and US companies will not outsource manufacturing to China or IT/CallCentre supp to India dollar being cheap and labour available locally. US is the only country in the world who has enough commodity prduced locally and still consumes more, ask for import.
Europe has to raise rates, not for Germany My Dear but for China!!
Yes, China has bought Greece, Irish, Spanish & Portugal debt. You name it and they own portion of the sovereign debt of country, even UK!!
However, you are wrong to assume they are converting all to currencies!! Let me clarify, China is the one who has invested billions in buying commodities....They have bought all Metals in the past 5 yrs. It would not take a genius to know we have limited supply of Metal on earth which we might run out of at some point in time. Regardless of where the dollar goes, Commodities will go high only. We have Human population increasing everyday and falling short of land to build infrastructure. Unless we have a natural disaster, I bet China will be the only country who controls commodities and it's prices in the nest 5-10 yrs from now. China is way to smart then what Japan was. Remember, currency is originated from China!!
Back to Charts, all equity indices have tan'kd 1% but no MAJOR effect on currency and OIL, What does this tells us, eh?
I agree with you there but do not forget there is a subcontext of politics and power play - particularly when it comes to the USD - China is holding massive amounts of USD debt (although recently they have been diversifying into the EUR) and the Americans are fearful of the Chinese getting too powerful (look what the U.S. did to Japan in the 1980s)
There is no question that the Americans (the govt) want a weak USD as this will result in US debt being cheaper to service and will allow them to gain an upper hand in controlling the Chinese sphere...
- #13,643
- Jun 1, 2011 10:11am Jun 1, 2011 10:11am
Indeed, I agree. Let's have some intellectual discussion I didn't have it with someone from a while.
Sorry wormie if I am spoiling your thread, don't intend too
Now we both know China owns 50 -70 percent of USA debt?
They are funding US debts as part of secret agreement between US-China.
If they don't buy the debt, US dollar will be cheap sh*t as no one will buy the debt and US companies will not outsource manufacturing to China or IT/CallCentre supp to India dollar being cheap and labour available locally. US is the only country...
)But take a look at a chart of gold or oil priced in EUR not USD.. Gold especially has not risen but fallen if priced in EUR terms.. all this commodity strength is not only due to the Chinese purchasing but also to USD weakness (same goes for S&P and US indices).
You are completely right in noticing that indices tanked but currencies and commodities are not moving - what does this tell me? That someone or some power does not want the EUR to tank (true for cable as well but to a lesser extent). In fact I would go one step further and say have you noticed as well how the EUR has been rising strongly during the Asian sessions? Much more so than usual.. This is pure speculation on my part but I believe it is due to the Chinese offloading USD and piling more EUR.
On a side note; I should have shorted cable instead of EUR!!! It seems I have bet on the wrong horse... although to be honest I was expecting EUR to tumble when cable did. You can't win them all..
Money is the result derived from the execution of a skillset
- #13,644
- Edited 10:40am Jun 1, 2011 10:29am | Edited 10:40am
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Indeed you got it now!!
That's where the politics / Brain comes....
If you are china you wouldn't give a toss to what happens to dollar but nothing must happens to euro as you have bought tonns of their debt too..Now you want German cars to be manufactured in China as well, not just the parts and if that doesn't happen their generations must pay you/china the due by paying large amount of interest. One step forward!
However, If I am europe and I am smart, I'll make sure I pile sh*t loads of debt on China if they are or someone else is ready to BUY and then Bankrupt the damn mini countries Let's see who wins this WAR - watch the space for next 2-3 yrs, till then keep buying the euro, it's going to 160-170 we have big daddy (china backing us) !!
Morever, If you are China and you have bought commodities, it's in your interest if dollar tanks - How?? Commodity price goes UP and so does bond prices!! Double edge sword!! Would you really care if dollar tank'd 10 percent but commodity and bonds prices are UP by 10-15 percent each!! Buy Low, sell high. China wouldn't care about dollar after 5 yrs as they might have control of 50% of comm , metal of the world, might even be priced in yuan or remnebi. When Europe will declare bankcrupcy someday not so soon, dollar will rocket, By that time China would have sold all and cash in on Dollar positions i.e. getout @ BE or more perhaps. Told you, China is much smarter then Japan was!!
That's where the politics / Brain comes....
If you are china you wouldn't give a toss to what happens to dollar but nothing must happens to euro as you have bought tonns of their debt too..Now you want German cars to be manufactured in China as well, not just the parts and if that doesn't happen their generations must pay you/china the due by paying large amount of interest. One step forward!
However, If I am europe and I am smart, I'll make sure I pile sh*t loads of debt on China if they are or someone else is ready to BUY and then Bankrupt the damn mini countries
Let's see who wins this WAR - watch the space for next 2-3 yrs, till then keep buying the euro, it's going to 160-170 we have big daddy (china backing us) !!Morever, If you are China and you have bought commodities, it's in your interest if dollar tanks - How?? Commodity price goes UP and so does bond prices!! Double edge sword!! Would you really care if dollar tank'd 10 percent but commodity and bonds prices are UP by 10-15 percent each!! Buy Low, sell high. China wouldn't care about dollar after 5 yrs as they might have control of 50% of comm , metal of the world, might even be priced in yuan or remnebi. When Europe will declare bankcrupcy someday not so soon, dollar will rocket, By that time China would have sold all and cash in on Dollar positions i.e. getout @ BE or more perhaps. Told you, China is much smarter then Japan was!!
I agree with you on the issues you raised about China owning European debt and buying precious metals and commodities (India central bank has been divesting of USD and investing in gold as well if I remember correctly) however when you say Europeans have to raise the rates for the Chinese.. if this is true then it is especially worrying! Then the Europeans are really digging themselves into a big hole; because the time will come when China won't need to be compliant to the good old West anymore and then all hell will break loose (for now IMO the...
- #13,645
- Jun 1, 2011 10:38am Jun 1, 2011 10:38am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Not bothered. | 18,084 Posts
Thank You 
- #13,646
- Jun 1, 2011 10:38am Jun 1, 2011 10:38am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2010 | 3,733 Posts
I don't want a job, i want money!
- #13,647
- Jun 1, 2011 10:40am Jun 1, 2011 10:40am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Not bothered. | 18,084 Posts
couldn't resist fellas sorry ...
I have that picture in my possession & never had the chance to use it .............. till today
I have that picture in my possession & never had the chance to use it .............. till today
Thank You
- #13,648
- Jun 1, 2011 10:43am Jun 1, 2011 10:43am
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Oye, I trust my charts on top of this fundy sh*t Hence I am long not short.
I've blown one account because of this so no more fundy crap. IT's purely to kill time and increase knowledge as I work in the domain and have to sound smart, even if I am not
I've blown one account because of this so no more fundy crap. IT's purely to kill time and increase knowledge as I work in the domain and have to sound smart, even if I am not
- #13,649
- Jun 1, 2011 10:44am Jun 1, 2011 10:44am
couldn't resist fellas sorry ...
I have that picture in my possession & never had the chance to use it .............. till today
I am a born again technical analyst
Money is the result derived from the execution of a skillset
- #13,650
- Jun 1, 2011 10:45am Jun 1, 2011 10:45am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Not bothered. | 18,084 Posts
Oye, I trust my charts on top of this fundy sh*t Hence I am long not short.
I've blown one account because of this so no more fundy crap. IT's purely to kill time and increase knowledge as I work in the domain and have to sound smart, even if I am not
carry on my friend!
Thank You
- #13,651
- Jun 1, 2011 10:47am Jun 1, 2011 10:47am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Not bothered. | 18,084 Posts
you are completely right on that one. Global macro worked in the late 80s and early 90s mainly because the hedge funds had enough power to instigate a move on their own.. Nowadays too many variables.
I am a born again technical analyst
Thank You
- #13,652
- Jun 1, 2011 10:49am Jun 1, 2011 10:49am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Not bothered. | 18,084 Posts
And I'm outta here. I made absolutely nothing today 
Gnite & good luck everyone
Gnite & good luck everyone
Thank You
- #13,653
- Jun 1, 2011 10:50am Jun 1, 2011 10:50am
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
I know bud!!
Seems we are all bored with current markets. Need something to do!! Should have traded gold instead!
btw, keep an eye on gold as my mate said it's now legal / allowed to keep gold as a security in exchanges! Gold will shoot through the roof once dollar dust is are settled perhaps $2000 is around the corner.
Seems we are all bored with current markets. Need something to do!! Should have traded gold instead!
btw, keep an eye on gold as my mate said it's now legal / allowed to keep gold as a security in exchanges! Gold will shoot through the roof once dollar dust is are settled perhaps $2000 is around the corner.
just pulling your leg my man you know me
carry on my friend!
- #13,655
- Jun 1, 2011 11:15am Jun 1, 2011 11:15am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2010 | 3,733 Posts
I don't want a job, i want money!
- #13,657
- Jun 1, 2011 12:23pm Jun 1, 2011 12:23pm
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
That's it I'm out, not an easy day.
closed @4427 (1.0)
i noticed usdcad is seriously correlated (inverse) big time for euro and cable..i think tomorrow we need cable to retrace and sell the mofo
trendline on cad totally finished me off..tomorrow this probably breakout north and euro and cable i think are going south..
- #13,658
- Jun 1, 2011 12:34pm Jun 1, 2011 12:34pm
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
- #13,659
- Jun 1, 2011 12:38pm Jun 1, 2011 12:38pm
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
- #13,660
- Jun 1, 2011 1:03pm Jun 1, 2011 1:03pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2010 | 3,733 Posts
I don't want a job, i want money!