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  • #1,141
  • Jun 1, 2011 5:58am Jun 1, 2011 5:58am
Re GDP, the RBA is expecting strong GDP growth for the June quarter and the rest of the year. So aud should stay strong.
  • #1,142
  • Jun 1, 2011 9:20am Jun 1, 2011 9:20am
9am est time... US stocks tanking, but Aussie selloff if muted right now. Will long again @ 0680 if given the chance.


Regards,
  • #1,143
  • Jun 1, 2011 9:24am Jun 1, 2011 9:24am
Classic relative strength.

Quoting FX-Petra
9am est time... US stocks tanking, but Aussie selloff if muted right now. Will long again @ 0680 if given the chance.


Regards,
  • #1,144
  • Jun 1, 2011 5:54pm Jun 1, 2011 5:54pm
Another set of numbers for Australia out today. Trade and retail.
Treasurer Swan blames GDP fall on Floods & Cyclones and expects a rebound in 2nd qtr. Well that all depends on the global economy Mr.Swan.
However todays numbers should give us a better indication on whats happening at home.
Retail will be interesting as households saving growing fast and discretionary spending falling.. just ask any retailing business.

1.0640-50 shud cap it prior to the numbers.. 1.0530 the key support..
Im however looking towards the cross AUD/NZD and as we correct the oversold position im looking for 1.2750
happy hunting
  • #1,145
  • Jun 1, 2011 7:06pm Jun 1, 2011 7:06pm
Here we are into the fourth day and back below the upper trend line.
If you’ve been scalping, on the M5, since the opening this week, there was a possible 963 pips. I may do that for a short time, but it’s not for me.
If you decided to trade on the H1, there was around about 555 pips. Not for me this week either, because I was away from the computer for hours.
So what was the other option? I setup a few BuyStops and Sell Stops and came back as often as I could and was happy with my 205 pips.

OK where to from here? Well we’re at the same point we were, at the opening this week. Will it go up or will it conform to the trend lines.
Looks like no interest rate rise this month, so it may conform to the trend lines.
Watch the Price action and make an educated decision.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,146
  • Jun 1, 2011 7:30pm Jun 1, 2011 7:30pm
Don't be too surprised if it bounces back strongly and goes on to print new highs. The RBA are definitely going to hike it, likely 50 bp, 25 bp for the March hike they couldn't do because of the floods, and another 25 bp for June to arrest their inflation forecasts.

"The Reserve Bank board is meeting next Tuesday and has flagged that it believes rates need to rise from the current 4.75 per cent. Most economists expect it will wait for another month or two before acting, although the RBA has already said it will ignore the effect of the floods, so may not be deterred by the March quarter downturn."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nati...-1226067532977

It really doesn't get much plainer than this.
  • #1,147
  • Jun 1, 2011 7:43pm Jun 1, 2011 7:43pm
long 1 lot @ 0595. Will take another ahead of 0530 if give the chance. Targeting 0750. Good trades to all

Regards,
  • #1,148
  • Jun 1, 2011 7:54pm Jun 1, 2011 7:54pm
I understand that the dollar gained on equity weakness today. But looking past all that, it just seems obvious that the Aussie has to strengthen some more. An RBA rate hike seems almost certain, maybe even 2 more to get another 50 bps. In the US, rates are not going anywhere. More likely to get QE3 than a hike anytime soon. Aussie may sell off some more if equites continue to tank, but when the dust clears (and who knows when that will be) it looks like it will continue north. The problem is, it seems too obvious. In forex "a sure thing means your ass in a sling". I welcome anyone to present alternative scenarios.

Regards,
  • #1,149
  • Jun 1, 2011 8:24pm Jun 1, 2011 8:24pm
This may seem too simple, but this is how I see it. If the Fed goes for QE-3 that will pump more dollars into the system lowering the dollars value and putting a bid under commodity prices. Australia is a commodity driven economy so in this instance we go long the Aussie and short the USD. If the Fed ends the QE program, even for a short time, I think commodity prices go down in which case being long the Aussie might be a real bad idea. I for one think that the Fed is locked in for QE for the forseeable future. They are the only thing keeping the bond market afloat. I am a brand new junior member so I would very much appreciate any and all comments.
  • #1,150
  • Jun 1, 2011 9:11pm Jun 1, 2011 9:11pm
Call me a denier but the jump in retail numbers is astounding.
When I hear of retailers doing it tough, department stores eg.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/sales...601-1fgrd.html types of stories and the savings rates going through the roof.. somebodies telling porkies.
You cant spend and save at the same time..

Anyway lets look.. AUD has bounced off 1.0590 and capped around 1.0650 but has a biddish tone thanks to the retail numbers (cough cough).

Still the big picture is 1.0530 to 1.0750 ..

Standing aside myself and waiting for a clearer pattern to emerge.
  • #1,151
  • Jun 1, 2011 9:25pm Jun 1, 2011 9:25pm
Quoting lasty
Call me a denier but the jump in retail numbers is astounding.
When I hear of retailers doing it tough, department stores eg.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/sales...601-1fgrd.html types of stories and the savings rates going through the roof.. somebodies telling porkies.
You cant spend and save at the same time..

Anyway lets look.. AUD has bounced off 1.0590 and capped around 1.0650 but has a biddish tone thanks to the retail numbers (cough cough).

Still the big picture is 1.0530 to 1.0750 ..

Standing...
Maybe a trap for next Tuesday' surprise call ??
I do not trust numbers fabricated by any Government and certainly time will tell the truth eventually. Fasten the seat belts.

Cheers
  • #1,152
  • Edited 11:55pm Jun 1, 2011 11:23pm | Edited 11:55pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I understand that the dollar gained on equity weakness today. But looking past all that, it just seems obvious that the Aussie has to strengthen some more. An RBA rate hike seems almost certain, maybe even 2 more to get another 50 bps. In the US, rates are not going anywhere. More likely to get QE3 than a hike anytime soon. Aussie may sell off some more if equites continue to tank, but when the dust clears (and who knows when that will be) it looks like it will continue north. The problem is, it seems too obvious. In forex "a sure thing...
Hi Petra,
Nice charts, living in Australia I can see that the economy is a two speed economy, one is the resources and its affiliated industries and the rest fall into the other category. The first is doing well and the rest arent as fortunate. Its taken the RBA a while to understand that, and frankly I don't think they would be that crazy to lift up the rates anytime soon. The high dollar is hurting exports and increasing the retail sales as imported goods are getting cheaper hence negative effect the trade balance. This is on Micro level, and the Macro level is another story that you would know.

That given on fundamentals, on technical level, AU is following the downtrend channel now, breaking major supports, I expect it to hit the bottom of the channel first before trying another attempt for fresh highs.I am currently short as seen on the chart, just moved my SL to secure some pips just above daily pivots.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #1,153
  • Jun 1, 2011 11:43pm Jun 1, 2011 11:43pm
Financial analysts are forecasting four rate rises by this time next year, total 100 Basic Points and they split them up this way:
1. Still possible rate rise on Tuesday,
2. If not it will be next month,
3. Followed by another possibly in September or October,
4. Two more rate rises in the first half of next year.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Budget-Wayne-Swan-interest-rates-GDP-pd20110509-GP7W4?opendocument&src=rss

Keep watching price action carefully.
  • #1,154
  • Jun 2, 2011 12:08am Jun 2, 2011 12:08am
Quoting Peter-FX
Financial analysts are forecasting four rate rises by this time next year, total 100 Basic Points and they split them up this way:
1. Still possible rate rise on Tuesday,
2. If not it will be next month,
3. Followed by another possibly in September or October,
4. Two more rate rises in the first half of next year.
[Keep...
Most head lines are indicating a rate rise here is another one, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226067508928, but I dont think it will be next week and given the current circumstances, i think furher sell off is on the cards in AUD. But markets do what they do and all we have to do is follow the trend
Here is a gist of the article.
The Australian equities markets showed little reaction, with the S&P/ASX 200 and the All Ordinaries finishing flat.


However, the markets are warming towards an interest rate rise in the next few months. The interbank futures market predicts there is a 13 per cent chance of a rise next week, up from just 2 per cent on Tuesday.

Most economists expect an interest rate rise by August.

The national accounts show that despite the contraction, there were strong patches in the economy, with private demand up by a surprising 1.3 per cent. Business investment grew by 2.8 per cent, which economists expect will strengthen.

Royal Bank of Scotland chief economist Kieran Davies said there were investment projects under way worth an "unprecedented" 12 per cent of gross domestic product. There are projects under consideration worth 18 per cent of GDP.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #1,155
  • Jun 2, 2011 1:00am Jun 2, 2011 1:00am
Yesterday this pair rose on worse than expected gdp numbers. Today, it falls on better than expected retail sales. I guess turnabout is fair play.

Regards,
  • #1,156
  • Edited 1:30am Jun 2, 2011 1:13am | Edited 1:30am
If you were a market mover, knowing that rates will go up this year and also next year, what would you do?
I know what I would do, I’d bring down the price as low as I could and get ready to jump on the sudden takeoff, when the rates rise.

So as I always say, watch the price action and learn how to read it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,157
  • Jun 2, 2011 1:31am Jun 2, 2011 1:31am
Possible inverted HS at 4H...

Theorical target: 1.1
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #1,158
  • Jun 2, 2011 2:09am Jun 2, 2011 2:09am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Possible inverted HS at 4H...

Theorical target: 1.1

So, well picked mrbandwidth. Which way will it go?

  • #1,159
  • Jun 2, 2011 2:56am Jun 2, 2011 2:56am
the aud/usd is giving a perfect reversal set up. Although some pairs playing against the us dollar are a bit weakening, the aussie feels and shows enough strengh. i will be buying it in a couple of minute.. alreday set up entry order and everything....the pivot is at 1.0668

follow my trading journal
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...254704&page=32

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,160
  • Jun 2, 2011 4:48am Jun 2, 2011 4:48am
Bottom-line trend detected and hit my 1.06xx Target.
Long @ 1.0625 TP 1.0725.
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