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Weird trading strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: May 31, 2011 9:41am May 31, 2011 9:41am
This is just something i noticed sometime ago

place a 50 period exponential moving average and after 10:00 GMT look for first price and 50 EMA crossover and take trades in that direction cuz most of the times the price ends up in that direction
i noticed this 5 months ago and it happens frequently
here is the snapshot of today

this system is incomplete so can try and tweak it as you like it is just something interesting that happens a lot...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weird and funny.PNG Size: 55 KB
  • #2
  • May 31, 2011 9:43am May 31, 2011 9:43am
oh yes this is a 5 min chart
  • #3
  • May 31, 2011 12:40pm May 31, 2011 12:40pm
i take it 1300 on your broker is 1000 gmt.

can you backtest this for the year and give us results of how many times it happens, how many winners you would have at which TP level and your SL.
  • #4
  • May 31, 2011 1:24pm May 31, 2011 1:24pm
Quoting flightless
this system is incomplete.
As you work toward completing this strategy, you might gradually find out that it is not that weird. What you've discovered is just another way to detect a trend change (price above EMA generally means uptrend and vice versa). When price crosses EMA it reverses the trend (say from up to down) and maybe begins a downtrend. Trends being what they are, you can expect price to continue in that direction.
Now "all" you have to find out, is under which conditions this works well, and what would constitute a good exit strategy (for example stops and limits).

Good luck!
  • #5
  • May 31, 2011 1:30pm May 31, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting stimpy
i take it 1300 on your broker is 1000 gmt.

can you backtest this for the year and give us results of how many times it happens, how many winners you would have at which TP level and your SL.

i will be foreward testing it on a demo for the next 3 months lets see it has been happening continuously for the past 6-7 months 8 out 10 times is correct at the moment what i am thinking of doing is as soon as i see the first crossover between price and 50 ema i switch to 1 hour time frame to take a trade cuz then there is only one entry signal then i switch back 5 min identify the previous swing high and low to place my stops
But this is really weird and interesting i'll be posting the results everyday...
  • #6
  • May 31, 2011 1:37pm May 31, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting 6pack
As you work toward completing this strategy, you might gradually find out that it is not that weird. What you've discovered is just another way to detect a trend change (price above EMA generally means uptrend and vice versa). When price crosses EMA it reverses the trend (say from up to down) and maybe begins a downtrend. Trends being what they are, you can expect price to continue in that direction.
Now "all" you have to find out, is under which conditions this works well, and what would constitute a good exit strategy (for example stops and...
But what matters the most is the first crossover b/w price and 50 EMA on 5 min chart exactly after 13:00 in case of my broker FXPRO the other crossovers that happen after the first one don't matter at all
  • #7
  • May 31, 2011 1:50pm May 31, 2011 1:50pm
Do you only try it in EUR/USD or it will work at another pairs ??
  • #8
  • May 31, 2011 1:51pm May 31, 2011 1:51pm
Are you just watching EUR/USD ? or any other pairs?
  • #9
  • May 31, 2011 11:48pm May 31, 2011 11:48pm
Only EUR USD ANYWAY I WILL POST todays trade results and after ten trades if there is any potential then maybe i'll continue testing it otherwise not
  • #10
  • Last Post: Jun 1, 2011 5:02am Jun 1, 2011 5:02am
today is the first demo test for this sytem the first price and 50 ema crossover was bullish therefore i have taken the first 1 hour stoch(8,3,3) crossover

1st is the 1 hour chart below is the 5 min
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 hour chart.PNG Size: 10 KB
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