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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #25,361
  • May 31, 2011 2:13am May 31, 2011 2:13am
ah ok, quick question. When daily turns into range we just scale down and watch for hints right? I see that the range can go up to 200 pips when daily decides to change direction. The range that the daily is stuck in could be upwards of 400 pips. At this point I'd probably already be on a scout and have bit the bullet on that scout and my daily p/l prob flat (can't fight battle w/o foreign cap). Prob be standing on sidelines too...

Question is, besides watching price unfold, is there a way we can determine if the moves are caused by natural daily chart movements or just someone messing around?

example: this may 5th
  • #25,362
  • Edited 2:39am May 31, 2011 2:20am | Edited 2:39am
Quoting fullperson
ah ok, quick question. When daily turns into range we just scale down and watch for hints right? I see that the range can go up to 200 pips when daily decides to change direction. The range that the daily is stuck in could be upwards of 400 pips. At this point I'd probably already be on a scout and have bit the bullet on that scout and my daily p/l prob flat (can't fight battle w/o foreign cap). Prob be standing on sidelines too...

Question is, besides watching price unfold, is there a way we can determine if the moves are caused by natural daily...
Hi fp,
Why do i get funny feeling you think like a robot.
Had the education system been so damaging?
What so difficult about flow?
whats with the 200 pips 400 pips thoughts.
Unnecessary dreaming. Only thing created is fear and confusion.

Anyway,there is no such thing as natural daily chart movements. Every move there mass of people messing.

regards.

Here's example of flow. Damn sad example, nevertheless still is example.

Inserted Video



Damn still brings a tear to my eyes.

This is better example,
Jack keeps posting it, and it still cannot get you thinking.
Inserted Video
  • #25,363
  • May 31, 2011 2:38am May 31, 2011 2:38am
hi fti, I think maybe I am unclear or maybe I am misunderstanding you. The 200 and 400 pips thoughts is about range. That my MO must be able to survive these 200-400pip volatility worst case scenario. I am not saying that "price turns at 200 pips" or that "ranges usually are 400pips".

When daily turning, need to see the next high or low to confirm change of trend? This could take a while. Or else I could go with flow and turn direction. But this may make me pig?

Note that I was disconnected from market at time of daily trend change, so I do not have feeling for flow. I am examining it from past.
  • #25,364
  • May 31, 2011 2:57am May 31, 2011 2:57am
Quoting fullperson
hi fti, I think maybe I am unclear or maybe I am misunderstanding you. The 200 and 400 pips thoughts is about range. That my MO must be able to survive these 200-400pip volatility worst case scenario. I am not saying that "price turns at 200 pips" or that "ranges usually are 400pips".

When daily turning, need to see the next high or low to confirm change of trend? This could take a while. Or else I could go with flow and turn direction. But this may make me pig?

Note that I was disconnected from market at time of daily trend change, so...
that is stuff you need think about before trading.
In the heat of battle then you think about being shot.
You're just asking for it, isn't it?

Ya ya, confirm.
I confirm that you will be account dead before you know it.
I hope you still only on demo.


regards
  • #25,365
  • May 31, 2011 3:09am May 31, 2011 3:09am
Are you talking about the size of the moves? I keep in mind to have contingencies for up to 2 stdev of market you mentioned earlier in beginning of thread. I am not just thinking about this now.

I'm asking if turning is appropriate (cap intensive) before we see development of a new trend forming (high and lows).

Yes I am still on demo as you have asked. I do not go live until I get greenlight from you.


Quoting fti
that is stuff you need think about before trading.
In the heat of battle then you think about being shot.
You're just asking for it, isn't it?

Ya ya, confirm.
I confirm that you will be account dead before you know it.
I hope you still only on demo.


regards
  • #25,366
  • Edited 3:26am May 31, 2011 3:14am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting fullperson
Are you talking about the size of the moves? I keep in mind to have contingencies for up to 2 stdev of market you mentioned earlier in beginning of thread. I am not just thinking about this now.

I'm asking if turning is appropriate (cap intensive) before we see development of a new trend forming (high and lows).

Yes I am still on demo as you have asked. I do not go live until I get greenlight from you.
you stop thinking about strategies when in trade, either you have it or you don't.
you do your thinking and planning when not trading.
Only thing you need do when in trade is execute.

One prerequisite i had for training dealers at the bank was that the chap must meet applitute and mindset standards.
I forget that this may not exist for the general public.

So for those that cannot get it after much trying.
Then just forget it.
This MO may not be suitable for you. So sorry, and i do not have enough enerfy to help anymore.


regards
  • #25,367
  • May 31, 2011 3:33am May 31, 2011 3:33am
If daily trend unclear then trend following MO is not useful. Prob play the range nimble or cut out and wait for clearer signs.

please fti, if missing mindset or intelligence I will try as best to align.
  • #25,368
  • May 31, 2011 3:45am May 31, 2011 3:45am
Quoting fullperson
If daily trend unclear then trend following MO is not useful. Prob play the range nimble or cut out and wait for clearer signs.

please fti, if missing mindset or intelligence I will try as best to align.
u r gettin it all wrong...
pls reread the thread carefully...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #25,369
  • May 31, 2011 3:50am May 31, 2011 3:50am
mahes, I am in the process of re-reading. I would very much appreciate it if you could enlighten me on what is wrong. Talking is more natural for me, so if energies permit, please skype me: william.fan7
  • #25,370
  • May 31, 2011 5:06am May 31, 2011 5:06am
Quoting indianguyinny24
....

How r u doing lusan...

V

Greetings, it looks very well indeed.
Playing around with this Forex thing again.
Still in NY?
I am in NC.
Weather here warmer than NY.
I am growing some tomotoes!
Cheers,
Luis
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #25,371
  • May 31, 2011 5:17am May 31, 2011 5:17am
Quoting fti
I will need tell you about noah ark to explain that. But i not want to break the rules here.

regards
Hi fti

Why not post religious talk on another site and then just link to it here? You get to say what you want and you're still within the rules.
  • #25,372
  • May 31, 2011 5:18am May 31, 2011 5:18am
Quoting fullperson
mahes, I am in the process of re-reading. I would very much appreciate it if you could enlighten me on what is wrong. Talking is more natural for me, so if energies permit, please skype me: william.fan7
im sorry William , im probably the worst teacher in the whole wide world,
but trust me when I say its best to read the thread n create your own style , u cannot copy another person's style , wat fti has given is the uncolored masterpiece , u need to color it with ur own shade and style but remember not to color it so ugly u cant see the art anymore

when u reread the thread , pls focus on the mindset part ,its wat most ppl here overlooked , no point in focusing the MO without the right mindset , and once u have the right mindset , the MO becomes irrelevant

take it slow , no point in rushing , get the basics right , without the right basics , ull keep revisiting square one till u get it right , so might as well get the right basics even if it takes time
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #25,373
  • May 31, 2011 6:26am May 31, 2011 6:26am
Quoting luSan
Greetings, it looks very well indeed.
Playing around with this Forex thing again.
Still in NY?
I am in NC.
Weather here warmer than NY.
I am growing some tomotoes!
Cheers,
Luis
Yummy summertime gardens

You say tomatoe, I say tomato......

Inserted Video
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tomato_plants.jpg Size: 50 KB
  • #25,374
  • May 31, 2011 6:34am May 31, 2011 6:34am
Here's some good equity & currency trading for ya!

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/company-n...n-libyan-funds
  • #25,375
  • May 31, 2011 6:38am May 31, 2011 6:38am
Quoting auxesis
Here's some good equity & currency trading for ya!

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/company-n...n-libyan-funds
Hi Auxesis. I cant help myself... "Good goldman boys".
  • #25,376
  • May 31, 2011 9:54am May 31, 2011 9:54am
Quoting fullperson
If daily trend unclear then trend following MO is not useful. Prob play the range nimble or cut out and wait for clearer signs.

please fti, if missing mindset or intelligence I will try as best to align.

im just a beginner but this is what i have been doing today with the euro

ok, the daily is for direction correct, to make sure we are not trading in the wrong direction.

however the daily is not the most important, an organism is built from the bottom up.

the market changes every tick, the tick makes the month, not the month makes the tick.

so trade the 5 minute, keeping in mind the daily movement, okay now, today we seem to be ranging, that is after a 384 pip movement from the 1.40 correct.
things dont go up for ever, if you are looking at the daily, you see deceleration north, (momentum loss) looking at the correlating pairs they are all signaling correction (usd strength lol somehow) look at jpy is positive candle, look at chf positive candle, look at AUD negative, look at gbp negative.

the most logical thing is for the eur to be negative too, may be not today but the correction is coming. however one must not anticipate correct. so then what must i do? as the art of war says, i need to be deffensive and trade in the safest way possible.

to me the safest way right now is to play the range by selling when its high.
if you look at this range is moving lower and lower. i think the market is hinting change in direction. but i will continue to sell the range at the top if possible. always keeping in mind that i might be wrong and im ready with a contingency plan (rescue skews if needed, im using phi for attack, and pi for rescues)
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,377
  • May 31, 2011 10:27am May 31, 2011 10:27am
i know some people here think i think to complex lol but that is the way things make sense to me.

candles/ bars are only measuring tools, in reality price doesnt work that way. price is a continuous flow of buy/sell orders, but for example
5 minute time frame is = 5 one minute candles
15 minute time frame is = 3 five minute candles
1 hr time frame is = 12 five minute candles (60 minutes)
daily time frame is = 288 five minute candles (1440 minutes)

so in reality its just a measuring tool, that is why i say dont make that your sole goal of trading, the larger the time frame the more prediction comes in to place. however you can measure what price HAS been doing in the larger time frames to zoom out and strategize what is the safest entrances, or strategize on the 5 minute.

if price seems to be moving north, that gives you the idea that its safest to buy, because that is what generally people have been doing (you never know for sure, so you have to always watch for changes) if you see that people have been selling its safest to focus on finding a good strategic point to sell, at the least amount of risk.

that is why people tell you to follow the flow, because go along with the market. and observe what its doing. your strategies most be flexible, according to analysis.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,378
  • May 31, 2011 10:59am May 31, 2011 10:59am
Quoting the redlion
(rescue skews if needed, im using phi for attack, and pi for rescues)
kindly explain this
  • #25,379
  • Edited 11:22am May 31, 2011 11:05am | Edited 11:22am
another thing FP

i think you were having problems with Rescues and stuff.

see the way im doing it is calculating my threshold of pain (and my capabilities) i have a small account to play with, i dont want demo, i want to lose real money. it feels bad losing money so i dont do it often lol

but i have learned that the pi and phi go well together,

the phi(fibo progression) skew 1 1 2 3 for me is my limit, (i like it that it takes 50% retrace to wipe out foreign capital so it gives me room to see whats coming) i can put in more than this to attack but the thing is, i need it to be backed up by the pi skew the spiral 1:3, for rescue

if all my troops were underwater that is 7 troops, i have the ability to rescue with 22 troops, if i cant rescue my my troops that means im over extended.

1 (3 r) 1,1=2 (6 r) 1,1,2=4 (13 r)1,1,2,3=7 (22r)

so the threshold of pain should be the pi skew, then calculate how many fibo (phi) it takes to reach it. in other words the phi to pi ratio

however take into account the pips you are under water, like fti says rigidity kills,

example with this skew it takes 31.85% retrace to b/e
if the market goes 100 pips against your position it would take 31.8 pips to b/e
50 pips is 15.9 to b/e and so on

do an excel worksheet to calculate things for you
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,380
  • Edited 11:41am May 31, 2011 11:28am | Edited 11:41am
yea, I usually try to wait until top shows hand, then drop a scout if the price shows possible correction in direction of trend. But seems that mindset is problem. So....back to the drawing board.

For rescues you can also skip levels in skew sequence 1,1,2. Fib numbers go 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21. Skipping 2 numbers. So if my 3 is caught, I can use 13. But this is similar to bringing avg about 25% for retrace. This is only for really aggressive. My point is, having one "comfortable" skew may not always be the best solution. Just know the idea of skews and how to bring your basis up to a certain retrace %. When volatility changes, match it with a good skew. I believe the same goes with an attack. You can be very aggressive and then be very conservative depending on terrain.


Quoting the redlion
im just a beginner but this is what i have been doing today with the euro

ok, the daily is for direction correct, to make sure we are not trading in the wrong direction.

however the daily is not the most important, an organism is built from the bottom up.

the market changes every tick, the tick makes the month, not the month makes the tick.

so trade the 5 minute, keeping in mind the daily movement, okay now, today we seem to be ranging, that is after a 384 pip movement from the 1.40 correct.
things dont go up for ever, if you are looking...
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