AUDUSD for informed traders | Page 57 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/AUD, AUD/USD

Similar Threads

Making an informed decision about the platform to go with 12 replies

AUDUSD Pattern 12 replies

25.000 AUDUSD position.. Value of roll over? 0 replies

AUDUSD 7 replies

Candlestick Chart Analysis - AUDUSD & USDCAD 1 reply

Attachments: AUDUSD for informed traders
Exit Attachments

AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #1,121
  • May 28, 2011 9:50pm May 28, 2011 9:50pm
Quoting forexmy
Fallacies!!
Shit is going to hit the fan big-time. Australian business and all those supposedly unconcerned voters with mortgages will be down Labor's throat to rip their stomach out.

Can hardly wait to see Swannie try to sell this one on the strength of cooked numbers from their Melbourne Institute mates.

But ya know what? I really don't think the RBA is going to have any alternative. They told Rudd not to blow the surplus on totally unncessary largesse to first home owners because it would create a price bubble, they did it anyway. It's payback time.

Don't know what it is like in other states, but in mine, the new home builders are already giving away a huge truckload of freebies (e.g. ducted air con, dishwasher, insulation t/out, timber flooring, carpets, paving around house, drive way paving, clothes line and letterbox etc etc). As from next week, it would probably also include "free double garage" and there will be a fire sale of all those sandwich size allotments the developers have been busy carving up thinking the gravy train would never end.

Come in spinner.
  • #1,122
  • May 28, 2011 10:02pm May 28, 2011 10:02pm
Quoting Peter-FX
Look at the graph:
Back then, we didn't have the price bubble explosion that we have now. May need to find a graph of the percentage of income that is being spent on mortgages now compared to back then. It's not pretty.
Attached Image
  • #1,123
  • May 28, 2011 11:12pm May 28, 2011 11:12pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Back then, we didn't have the price bubble explosion that we have now. May need to find a graph of the percentage of income that is being spent on mortgages now compared to back then. It's not pretty.

Quite right Jade,
Take a look at this link…Interesting or scary.
http://www.newgeography.com/content/002038-australias-housing-affordability-outrage
  • #1,124
  • Edited May 29, 2011 12:09am May 28, 2011 11:51pm | Edited May 29, 2011 12:09am
Quoting Peter-FX
Quite right Jade,
Take a look at this link…Interesting or scary.
http://www.newgeography.com/content/002038-australias-housing-affordability-outrage
Good article Peter, thanks.

May well be a very volatile session when they make the announcement, whatever way it goes.

Incidentally, thinking that if they do hike, it will be 50 bp not 25 bp. Shock therapy, slam the brakes on while the going is good, they may not get another chance.
  • #1,125
  • May 29, 2011 5:10pm May 29, 2011 5:10pm
AUD/NZD driving this market..

With positive signs coming out of NZD expect more flows going in.
resistance on NZD .8220 and breakout has technical target at .8350-.8400
1.0720 proving a temp stumbling block on AUD/USD..
AUD/NZD 1.3050 broken next 1.3000 where more stops shud be as long holders should be concerned.
Target on AUD/NZD at 1.2750..
  • #1,126
  • May 29, 2011 5:52pm May 29, 2011 5:52pm
OK let’s plan the week.
Three AUDUSD charts, daily, H4, H1.
Each chart has a comment for you to think about.
We are at a decision point, will it go up above the trend line or down and conform to the trend lines.
Watch the price action closely and don’t forget the possible rate rise in June.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30-5-11-audusd-Daily.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 30-5-11-audusd-H4.gif Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 30-5-11-audusd-H1.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #1,127
  • May 30, 2011 4:53am May 30, 2011 4:53am
Not much player today..
Plus Us and UK bank holiday.

However - based on 1 day trending - the market sign is Stongly Bullish.
I am stay on the sideline to watch this closely..
Should anticipate a reversal soon.
This might be a shorting opportunity (1.07 to 1.06xx - based on your support line) and the butterfly pattern.
  • #1,128
  • May 30, 2011 6:36pm May 30, 2011 6:36pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Joined you at 1.0585

M15:
Attachment
Closed @ 1.0740

H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0111.jpg Size: 106 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #1,129
  • May 30, 2011 6:56pm May 30, 2011 6:56pm
Another day another bad set of numbers for Australia.
Despite breaking up through resistance I just cant lend myself to buy it.
Meanwhile across the ditch NZ is powering ahead.

AUD/NZD has fallen below 1.3000 albeit briefly.
I think we are in for some more pressure on this cross especially if the bad data continues to flow and interest rate rise becomes less likely.
  • #1,130
  • May 30, 2011 7:30pm May 30, 2011 7:30pm
Quoting evelee8
The probability on Aus Rate hike +0.25% by June has increased to 50% since the inflation report forecast to raise to 3% compared to 2.7% by this December.

Closed: Short term trading 1.0574 TP @ 1.0630 (+56 pips)
...
One long left - 1.0718 remain adjusted TP @ 1.0719 - the interest paid for 1 month is good...[Closed at adjusted TP 1.0730 +12 pips]

I turn from neutral to slightly bullish.
Looking for a new entry @ 1.06xx - 1.05xx for Long.

Good luck to all traders.
  • #1,131
  • May 31, 2011 12:06am May 31, 2011 12:06am
Aud/Usd This pair is on uptrend on daily chart, targetting high at 1.0820/30 while retracement is at 1.0670 break is to 1.0650 then 1.0620 must hold
  • #1,132
  • May 31, 2011 12:09am May 31, 2011 12:09am
i was sell aud/usd @ 1.0692,,,,,hope the price will move bear into 1.0600,,,
  • #1,133
  • May 31, 2011 1:03am May 31, 2011 1:03am
It might be a good short term trading for shorting eur/aud pair at 4HR chart reading.

Eur closed above 1.4411 at the time of writing despite of weak data..
The unemployment rate should be lower than expected looking at the weak German data..
  • #1,134
  • May 31, 2011 11:35am May 31, 2011 11:35am
dipped my toe in @ 0652 long, targeting 0790. Not much conviction, though, with stop just below 0620. Looking at the 4hr chart, seems that 0880 and 0430 might make a nice trading range for the summer. I am going to keep my poweder dry until we start appoaching those areas.

Regards,
  • #1,135
  • May 31, 2011 11:44am May 31, 2011 11:44am
Quoting FX-Petra
dipped my toe in @ 0652 long, targeting 0790. Not much conviction, though, with stop just below 0620. Looking at the 4hr chart, seems that 0880 and 0430 might make a nice trading range for the summer. I am going to keep my poweder dry until we start appoaching those areas.

Regards,
0620 would be @ WPP....
Considering the same, but would like to see it first near WPP around 1.0618

H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0114.jpg Size: 100 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #1,136
  • May 31, 2011 3:39pm May 31, 2011 3:39pm
A suite of numbers out today.
Kiwi overseas trade index.. Aussie manufacturing index China PMI and then Aussie GDP..

Its a lottery... and trying to work out the pyschology of how the market is placed will do your head in.

AUD/NZD still dictates and 1.2750 still my objective.
supports at 1.2890 1.2830 1.2750-70
res 1.2990 1.3050 1.3120

Good luck and happy hunting
  • #1,137
  • May 31, 2011 7:05pm May 31, 2011 7:05pm
Quoting lasty
A suite of numbers out today.
Kiwi overseas trade index.. Aussie manufacturing index China PMI and then Aussie GDP..

Its a lottery... and trying to work out the pyschology of how the market is placed will do your head in.

AUD/NZD still dictates and 1.2750 still my objective.
supports at 1.2890 1.2830 1.2750-70
res 1.2990 1.3050 1.3120

Good luck and happy hunting
Boom..
Market goes in short AUD expecting the worse and pays the price..
AUD Cross's are well bid atm.. more of a blow out maybe seen.
  • #1,138
  • May 31, 2011 7:09pm May 31, 2011 7:09pm
I think I might start a new trading strategy soon....

Figure out the most logical course of action and then do the opposite
  • #1,139
  • May 31, 2011 10:02pm May 31, 2011 10:02pm
Quoting FX-Petra
dipped my toe in @ 0652 long, targeting 0790. Not much conviction, though, with stop just below 0620. Looking at the 4hr chart, seems that 0880 and 0430 might make a nice trading range for the summer. I am going to keep my poweder dry until we start appoaching those areas.

Regards,
closed at 0750. no need to be greedy.

Regards,
  • #1,140
  • Jun 1, 2011 1:44am Jun 1, 2011 1:44am
Aussie seems to be bucking logic at the moment as all the mid tier news recently (homes, credit, undemployment) are bad and the bigger news over the last couple of days GDP and the banks dropping a bundle on the ASX is also bad.

Combine this with the political climate (carbon tax and oh noes dont hurt the families).

I wouldnt be suprised to see interest rates on hold. But the Aussie is still climbing.

Anyway, despite the chart rising today (60 pips up at the moment) I have concluded the market is wrong (this is gunna hurt) and have shorted. With the intention of building a posiiton to my predicted no action by the reserved next week.

As its a spikey old week my stop is much broader than I would normally put in...so if im wrong..then ouch...if im right and we are 04/05 next week...then big SMILES
0 traders viewing now