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Thinking Outside the Box!?!

  • #441
  • May 29, 2011 5:39pm May 29, 2011 5:39pm
If I opened up a thread thats basically had the premise of having having you guys / traders on FF tell me how to make a trade in real time everyday..

would you find it interesting?

I am talking about.. you guys call the time and currency.. or like.. which direction short or long during a certain time frame.. I'll make the trade and attempt to pull it off profitably

I'm highly considering doing this.. (probably only on a demo account ofcourse)

but we could have different conditions for each day and such.. I thought it might be rather fun.. you can try to give me the shittist trades every..

idk should I? thanks for your insights
  • #442
  • May 29, 2011 5:51pm May 29, 2011 5:51pm
Interesting challenge for you and quite a few implications that would be of real potential instruction, caution, correction, insight...etc., etc.!

If you're game, I sure am for you to do it!

Ron
  • #443
  • May 29, 2011 8:20pm May 29, 2011 8:20pm
Quoting ronrhodes
Interesting challenge for you and quite a few implications that would be of real potential instruction, caution, correction, insight...etc., etc.!

If you're game, I sure am for you to do it!

Ron
Yeah dude I thought about it and decided to go forth with it..

heres my new thread / experiment

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=296252



Thanks,
NY
  • #444
  • May 30, 2011 12:48am May 30, 2011 12:48am
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Xkv5o55jDi...+101B+Blog.jpg
  • #445
  • May 30, 2011 2:03am May 30, 2011 2:03am
Not really OOB (out of box), but I love trading on bank holidays, like today.

The low volatility makes it feel like shooting fish in a barrel. Of course, you have to manage the occasional extended spike (favored by the low liquidity).

Too bad there are not many bank holidays in a year, as on these days I achieve 95% win rates
  • #446
  • May 30, 2011 2:31am May 30, 2011 2:31am
Adal, how do you prefer to trade during bank holidays like today? For my way of trading its a really boring day instead of just a normal boring day. lol
  • #447
  • May 30, 2011 3:39am May 30, 2011 3:39am
Quoting Marv
Not really. It just got much harder/more competitive.



That's what I do as well. As far as I know, any sane daytrader would keep an eye on the news (you don't necessarily have to trade them, just be aware of them). I honestly don't know of any pro/serious daytraders who don't, but maybe that's just me.
I missed these comments on daily news articles by Munroe and Marv, yes I agree it is worth keeping an eye on the daily news events, however I don't personally for numerous reasons. The main two being, I put my stops well away from the, "usual" places and I am generally out of the market by 8.30 am gmt.
  • #448
  • May 30, 2011 3:40am May 30, 2011 3:40am
Quoting Adal
Not really OOB (out of box), but I love trading on bank holidays, like today.

The low volatility makes it feel like shooting fish in a barrel. Of course, you have to manage the occasional extended spike (favored by the low liquidity).

Too bad there are not many bank holidays in a year, as on these days I achieve 95% win rates
Yep holidays are great, trade like a machine.
  • #449
  • May 30, 2011 5:34am May 30, 2011 5:34am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Adal, how do you prefer to trade during bank holidays like today? For my way of trading its a really boring day instead of just a normal boring day. lol
I'm trading a revert to the mean system on holiday days. Basically I'm selling volatility.
  • #450
  • May 30, 2011 6:51am May 30, 2011 6:51am
Don't believe the hype about there being no trade opportunities during holidays. Remember that this holiday is on a Monday which is usually a sideways time for the market anyway. There are also some great set ups forming which can be pounced on later on if you pay close attention to what's going on.
  • #451
  • May 30, 2011 7:22am May 30, 2011 7:22am
Quoting Troikaone1
Don't believe the hype about there being no trade opportunities during holidays. Remember that this holiday is on a Monday which is usually a sideways time for the market anyway. There are also some great set ups forming which can be pounced on later on if you pay close attention to what's going on.
Yeah dude..

I feel the same way that there can be great opportunities.. especially on the days leading up to say xmas etc.. when I sit on the sidelines I usually check in because they interest me how they might be acting.. always feel like "damn I should trade" but rarely do

I'd also say trading holiday is pretty different compared to the 90% of retail investors..

However I personally feel it would go against the market conditions I desire to trade so I personally sit out (i know I'm such a loswer )
  • #452
  • May 30, 2011 7:29am May 30, 2011 7:29am
Quoting newyear498
Yeah dude..

I feel the same way that there can be great opportunities.. especially on the days leading up to say xmas etc.. when I sit on the sidelines I usually check in because they interest me how they might be acting.. always feel like "damn I should trade" but rarely do

I'd also say trading holiday is pretty different compared to the 90% of retail investors..

However I personally feel it would go against the market conditions I desire to trade so I personally sit out (i know I'm such a loswer )
Hey Newyear..

A lot of that mentality comes from trading the stock market where you have significantly less liquidity.
  • #453
  • May 30, 2011 7:33am May 30, 2011 7:33am
Quoting Troikaone1
Hey Newyear..

A lot of that mentality comes from trading the stock market where you have significantly less liquidity.
good point.. personally I did stocks first before I know wtf forex was.. probably influenced me the most to stay out

Thanks
  • #454
  • May 30, 2011 7:53am May 30, 2011 7:53am
Quoting nubcake
that seems awfully conflicting. trading without reason but making profits is basing profits on the unknown, isn't it? doesn't one need to know where there profits come from to ensure that they continue to generate profits and continue to replicate the positive results as time goes on?
Well I really didn't mean rhyme and reason the way you took it. Because you obviously trade for a reason... I think I meant this more in relation to risk. Meaning no matter how good your system is there will be an amount of risk. Some known, some unknown.

You know where the profits come from based on previous history. The market goes up, the market goes down. The only thing that is not constant is the size of the ranges.... any chart will tell you this so what I am saying here is nothing secret.

Quoting nubcake
but surely those who claim an edge will at least be able to explain it (even if only to themselves) and know why over time it will make coin. whether it be a particular bar pattern, or magical fish-eye MA cross pointing to the moon, etc. there must be a rhyme or reason to pull the trigger, but am i wrong to think that why this rhyme or reason exists is (EDIT) NOT (/EDIT) some unknown factor... that is to say, do you think some people have an edge that they don't fully understand and / or appreciate why this apparent edge exists?

Yes, there is a rhyme or reason to pull the trigger. I think rhyme and reason was a poor choice of words on my part and I certainly didn't mean it the way I said it.

I understand my edge, the problem is I don't know for exact certainty which trade will win, which will lose at the time of taking the trade. All I know is that nearly 75% of the time I am right... sometimes this falls to around 70% but rarely much less than that. I only know this based on history... and history repeats itself. (At the track / casino they call this ODDS)

It's possible that some people could have an edge and don't fully understand it. Part of it might be hidden due to other things that were added in. I've seen it countless times in my own system development, take one thing away and things suddenly start clicking. By the same token... add something and it destroys what you have.

Each individual component could be the difference...

I don't think this thread has resulted to bickering which or who is better. If that is what you are taking away from this thread your not thinking positive. This thread is all about thinking for yourself and challenging yourself to find and define your own personal box and then step outside of it.

We are all uniquely different and I am sure there are countless strategies that will work you can't be like me, jag, trizzle or the countless others who entertained thoughts in this thread. Sometimes all it takes is one thought upon which a few others are built upon that opens the lock on the inside of the box and allows you to step outside.

Don't think for one second that once you step outside the box that risk is somehow "magically" removed. All you are basically doing is getting rid of the clutter and looking at things from different perspectives and angles.
  • #455
  • Edited 8:24am May 30, 2011 8:13am | Edited 8:24am
Quoting pip_seeker
Well I really didn't mean rhyme and reason the way you took it. Because you obviously trade for a reason... I think I meant this more in relation to risk. Meaning no matter how good your system is there will be an amount of risk. Some known, some unknown.

You know where the profits come from based on previous history. The market goes up, the market goes down. The only thing that is not constant is the size of the ranges.... any chart will tell you this so what I am saying here is nothing secret.




Yes, there is a rhyme or reason...
Some thoughts on this.. I started thinking out the box which feels like a long time ago..

Definitely positive things coming back I agree with my latest overlook of this thread..

Point being I have learned a lot lot lot.. about trading since coming to FF.. this is because of thinking outside the box.. I have went down a path and formulated my own thoughts and beliefs now which reflect some parts of the main methodologies of trading.. but also an entirely separate outlook


I also did a similar thing to religion as well in my life.. and I feel this example explains the above best..



Religion to me is your beliefs on life.. mass religions like Christianity (etc you know them..) are simply mass belief systems that a large portion of people share the same beliefs..(like trend lines for example)

now theres nothing wrong with that of course but I didn't understand this when I was younger and set out to formulate my own thoughts and concluded my own religion that unless I write my own book and etc I'm the only one with these beliefs (and I did the similar with forex)

so I have always been an outside the box thinker.. or at least a thinker.. and it has allowed me to get where I am today which I find myself a happier and knowledgeable for formulating my own ideas and research



Point being I am now where I have formulated most my ideas and the outside the box thinking I did in the past is consistently closing the gap as my own ideas are being formed.. I hope others will enjoy a similar approach to exploring the markets and/or life..


Thanks,
NY
  • #456
  • Edited 9:44am May 30, 2011 8:35am | Edited 9:44am
Quoting pip_seeker
I understand my edge, the problem is I don't know for exact certainty which trade will win, which will lose at the time of taking the trade. All I know is that nearly 75% of the time I am right... sometimes this falls to around 70% but rarely much less than that. I only know this based on history... and history repeats itself. (At the track...
this is where the difference between us is and the confusion on our language. i take at face value that you have an edge and can define it in some way that makes sense. i understand the ins and outs of risk/reward and win/loss values. my unknowns don't relate to whether the next trade is going to be a winner or not. my unknowns are more to do with taking a trade for a reason that makes sense if explained to another person, and is not simply trading because i drew a line on a chart for example.

i'm entirely of the opinion, no, belief, that most people trade and have profits but have no edge and trade entirely on some degree of faith or unfounded belief. it's only a matter of time before they blow-up and get their just desserts. this is why this thread topic is so potentially interesting and fruitful because it is accepted that most people fail at trading (or perhaps even extend this to life in general).

to have an edge in the markets (or life) we have to see things differently than most others. to take a macro viewpoint of trading and/or life and examine the outliers / black swans is hopefully to reveal something uniquely different to their thinking and approaches. hopefully it is NOT that they are simply anomalies (or flukes) whose significant successes is through being purely fortunate. or to express it with real examples, consider buffet or gates or trump... if you could distill from them what it is that produced their uniquely superior successes and then maintained this through to another time in the past or future would this distilled "thing" (mindset, methodology, faith, luck, whatever etc) still be fruitful? or is it that they are simply the outliers of society which help give perspective of what is considered average (i.e. without their great success everyone else would not seem so ordinary. someone has to be at the outer edges of the success bell-curve for there to BE a bell-curve)?

i fear that being fortunate is the main ingredient of success. i hope it not to be so. if it is then there is no point anyone trying, really. plenty of people work hard and are successful, but also, plenty of people work hard but fail. you can't have one without the other, i guess.

EDIT : i'm now touching on the concept of fate, which hopefully is not relevant. /edit

Quote
We are all uniquely different and I am sure there are countless strategies that will work you can't be like me, jag, trizzle or the countless others who entertained thoughts in this thread. Sometimes all it takes is one thought upon which a few others are built upon that opens the lock on the inside of the box and allows you to step outside.
which is precisely why this thread is so potentially fruitful and exciting for me personally. it's one thing to have an edge and be comfortable with yourself and your methods, but another thing to not see the keys you are holding in your own hand.

Quote
Don't think for one second that once you step outside the box that risk is somehow "magically" removed. All you are basically doing is getting rid of the clutter and looking at things from different perspectives and angles.
precisely. i never EVER expected it to be otherwise. as per above, really.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #457
  • May 30, 2011 7:22pm May 30, 2011 7:22pm
When I hear people talk about impulse and corrective waves I wonder..

Why would it ever make sense to trade an impulse wave.. it makes more sense to trade the "correctional" movement

since after a correction you would assume that price is in the correct place.. so to put money on the fact it is going to "uncorrect" itself seems counter intuitive

so I guess you would either have to agree with what I just said above ^

or you would have to assume that "corrections" are totally mislabeled.. and its similar to how the market can never be too oversold or too overbought

maybe the entire idea of corrections is wrong.. maybe what the typical person considers a "correction" is really the divergence from where price is correctly valued at


Any thoughts?
  • #458
  • May 30, 2011 9:04pm May 30, 2011 9:04pm
i think you are giving too much credit to the names given. my take is they are purely for description so that we can all see in our mind what the general movements are.

to me an impulse is simply a bar that is clearly larger than the x bars before it, and a correction or retrace is just an opposing movement of lesser magnitude. although in some contexts i consider a correction or retrace to be an opposing movement of roughly equal magnitude. it depends on who is saying it and in what context.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #459
  • May 30, 2011 10:13pm May 30, 2011 10:13pm
Quoting nubcake
this is where the difference between us is and the confusion on our language. i take at face value that you have an edge and can define it in some way that makes sense. i understand the ins and outs of risk/reward and win/loss values. my unknowns don't relate to whether the next trade is going to be a winner or not. my unknowns are more to do with taking a trade for a reason that makes sense if explained to another person, and is not simply trading because i drew a line on a chart for example.
Well whether you call it a line or a signal doesn't really matter much does it? I mean when a certain price point gets hit you will take the trade or not take it. Lines are used in football, war, chess, etc. The line is only a decision to do something... not the end result.

The end result comes from what you do after you enter. If this part is flawed it doesn't matter how good your entry is.

Quoting nubcake
i'm entirely of the opinion, no, belief, that most people trade and have profits but have no edge and trade entirely on some degree of faith or unfounded belief. it's only a matter of time before they blow-up and get their just desserts. this is why this thread topic is so potentially interesting and fruitful because it is accepted that most people fail at trading (or perhaps even extend this to life in general).
We know that according to US brokerage acknowledgements that about 70% fail.... now whether this is 70% the first month and 20% of the 70% that loses the second month and so on. I can tell you it's possible to win, but very hard.

It's not hard all the time, that's what makes it seductive: the lure of easy money. Its the 10% of the time that kicks most people.

Quoting nubcake
to have an edge in the markets (or life) we have to see things differently than most others. to take a macro viewpoint of trading and/or life and examine the outliers / black swans is hopefully to reveal something uniquely different to their thinking and approaches. hopefully it is NOT that they are simply anomalies (or flukes) whose significant successes is through being purely fortunate. or to express it with real examples, consider buffet or gates or trump... if you could distill from them what it is that produced their uniquely superior successes...
Well that is pretty profound. I guess I would have to admit that where I am is a direct result of my past experience. Take a tiny little bit of it out over the past 20 years and I probably wouldn't be where I am.

It's an understanding and continually thinking about ways to win. But in reality all I do is play the odds. Why the heck would I want to make it harder than what it is? Off course even the odds can go against you at times. If you ever played the game 'gut' and you see a jack pot grow to $20 with a nickel ante. You get dealt an Ace-2, you have to have "faith" to play that out when you're a college kid living on vapor.


Quoting nubcake
or is it that they are simply the outliers of society which help give perspective of what is considered average (i.e. without their great success everyone else would not seem so ordinary. someone has to be at the outer edges of the success bell-curve for there to BE a bell-curve)?

i fear that being fortunate is the main ingredient of success. i hope it not to be so. if it is then there is no point anyone trying, really. plenty of people work hard and are successful, but also, plenty of people work hard but fail. you can't have one without the...
Well I can also tell you that if I wasn't persistant I never would have found the proverbial keys in the first place. So it's certainly more than just being fortunate alone. I mean these ideas weren't just dumped in my lap, I worked very hard for them. Certainly there were countless people that crossed my path that helped me find various keys, but if I wasn't there looking the difference wouldn't matter too much.

Quoting nubcake
EDIT : i'm now touching on the concept of fate, which hopefully is not relevant. /edit
It is and isn't, most of it is up to you and what you use or find. I mean I could go back in time and check off a few things and I probably would be less successful than I am now. But I am always thinking about it so I don't know if I might have found it eventually anyway.

Quoting nubcake
which is precisely why this thread is so potentially fruitful and exciting for me personally. it's one thing to have an edge and be comfortable with yourself and your methods, but another thing to not see the keys you are holding in your own hand.

precisely. i never EVER expected it to be otherwise. as per above, really.
Well good I am glad you are taking something positive away from this. I hope everyone does.

-----------
Well NewYear touched on the subject of religion and while I know the tornado subject is still a bit raw in the minds of many in the USA please don't take this below other than a joke. With the talk of the rapture doomsday past I thought this kinda fits this topic and shows quite possibly that even God is an "out of the box" thinker. I hope everyone sees the humor in it.
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  • #460
  • May 30, 2011 10:14pm May 30, 2011 10:14pm
Quoting nubcake
i think you are giving too much credit to the names given. my take is they are purely for description so that we can all see in our mind what the general movements are.

to me an impulse is simply a bar that is clearly larger than the x bars before it, and a correction or retrace is just an opposing movement of lesser magnitude. although in some contexts i consider a correction or retrace to be an opposing movement of roughly equal magnitude. it depends on who is saying it and in what context.
Definitely.. I spent way to much time reading up on one sections and I started thinking in their context.. totally jedi mind fucked me

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