DislikedThe fact remains if you can read pure naked charts across multiple time fames then you actually have very little to worry about.
If the weekly chart tells me it is going north and I am trading the daily or h4 I couldn't care less about most news items.Ignored
As I said earlier if it works for you, and your bottom line is increasing quarter after quarter, then more props to you.
However, why do you need to pay attention to the Weekly Chart? In so doing you are implicitly implying that the reasons for price moving up weeks ago are still playing out, and will generate sufficient trading activity, to continue along in that direction. I'm not saying they can't - they certainly can, but if in the first place you are not aware of what's moving the market you are trading, is this a wise assumption to make?
However, despite being unaware of what is moving the market, and simply going in the direction of travel, most sensible trades placed in this direction which get caught and carried in the slipstream will be carried into profit. Until the trend ends.
Although you will realize your profit objectives, and of course profitable systems can be designed around trading Weekly Trend Direction, there-in lies the subtle fallacy of assuming that it was the Weekly Trend that brought you the profit. Most times you are clueless of what is actually generating the underlying movement or affecting the market, and although it is not a requirement, being aware of said factors can greatly upscale your accuracy.
Off the top of my head, let's take EUR/USD for example. From January until April, the Weekly Trend has been up. You ride the weekly trend; it is your friend, and trading is the best thing since sliced bread. However, from May until June, you witness a sharp correction in the Weekly Trend. I don't know the specifics of your system, but there's a good chance that if you were initating longs during this month, then your blotter would be redder than red, as price plummets 10 handles.
Looking at your chart, you would insist that the overall Weekly Trend is up, and that trading is a distribution of wins and losses; you can't know the outcome of your next trade; etc. But without a clue that Greece was tottering on a debt restructuring cliff, the participants who move the market would have shifted their priorities and would be happy to liquidate into your stops as the market races down. You would actually, as in literally be offering your money up to them, and making their life much easier.I guess participants like that are needed...I would love to fill your orders next week if more unfavourable Greek News comes out.
And it can be as simple as that.
By pulsing the market, not only could you have participated in the up move, but you could have liquidated near the top and milked the down move as well. One might argue that this is in hindsight, but it was done, has been done and will continue to be done week in and week out, by those who are aware - myself included.
QuoteDislikedDisasters are what we have emergency stops for, interest rates etc are generally priced in long before you or I hear about them anyway.
Keep it simple.
A pair's exchange rate does not magically adjust to things such as economic numbers, it gets where it goes by the actions of participants collectively trading in a particular direction for a given reason. The sentiment is there all along, faint initially, and it becomes increasingly obvious when the move is at its peak. Can you think of why it makes sense for this to happen? Knowing this, where is the lowest risk entry point to join the move? The fact that the market focuses on different things at different times (kind of like ADD) can be a blessing and a curse, depending on how you take advantage of it, as demonstrated by Tact1cal. For this reason alone, 'pricing in an event' cannot happen in a linear sequence, allowing speculators to profit as well, by taking on the associated outcome risk.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not making any judgements about your statement or your profitability - your method may very well have some edge rooted within it. I'm simply stating that being aware of these factors changes your trading around completely, and that keeping an open mind can only further your bottom line. You can choose to keep it simple, or put in a little more effort to take it to the next level - all up to you. But never stop learning.
Disliked
IndeedQuoting MonroeDislikedthat's just one way to take advantage of itIgnoredIgnored
Regards,
xXTrizzleXx