vsa with Malcolm

Just a question inbetween i want to to study VSA a bit i been following it now for somewhile but i noticed some things.

- 1 thing which broker you trader's preffer for Vsa? Seeing some difference inbetween volume on different brokers.



Thanks

regards,

Ingmar.

Great, thanks for the answer. During the weekend I am catching up on the complete thread and any update to current price action is always motivating....




___________
michael

Hi Ingmar,

your question can´t be answered easily because many traders use an external charting/volume feed and probably execute their trades on another broker. And as you will know any recommendation always has the slight touch of being commerically biased or involved in some sort of Introducing Broker nightmare.....

What I have found out reading this thread :

FXCM seems to have a kind of " generalized " volume of all market makers, so either try their Boston Technologies version of MT4, or subscribe to Ensign Software for 26 USD monthly and get it free plus Ensign´s charting capabilities.

TradeInterceptor is another free data feed for FXCM.

Some use the new MT4 feature of Oanda for volume.

Some use Tadawulfx, a Cyprus based broker, which seems to be quite similar to major data feeds like eSignal.

Some use InterbankFX, as they additionally use GMT 0 candle charts, makes sense as 40% of volume comes out of London.

In my tests very good are :
Hantec Markets ( UK based ) : better than IBFX
DivisaFX ( bridge to Currenex liquidity data feed via MT4 )
Dukascopy
FXDD Malta ( careful of GMT+2 variations )

Hope that helps a bit.

( Edit : no affiliation to any broker on my side )








____________
michael

First off Sorry for being so long winded yet again…

So here is my mark ups to the “test” chart I posted on Thursday night. There were a few takers and some said they would short and some said not enough weakness and they thought the market would go up. No one actually said yes or no to trading the ND up at the day’s high…

Tgwhbb actually noticed that the bar was an up bar and down bar at the same time when compared to the previous bar (nice catch) but in reality it was such as a direct result of huge volume surge on that bar… it was in fact a new release bar with a couple of high impact US new releases 30 minutes after NY open… so SM will of course do 2 things;

 

1. SO both weak longs and shorts and trap as many traders as they can
2. They will use this news release to most likely set the tone for the rest of the NY/London session (many times price will range between NY and NYSE opens as we see in this example)

The problem with US news is that good data can send the EU up or down as can bad US news. It all comes down to risk appetite. SM understands herd mentality better than the herd does and this is how they profit off our mistakes. The saying that weakness appears in up bars and strength in down bars is very, very true. SM sells into up bars and buys into down bars so they can control the movements better… if they did the opposite the markets would fall and rise uncontrollably.

Now I have removed everything left of the news bar as this really is what my test was trying to focus on. This major surge in volume (almost double anything seen that day so far) represents SM action… what action? What are they doing? As VSA traders we are a bit like hunters tracking our prey (SM) following them around in the wild (charts) watching for the signs that they leave behind… they are there on every chart we just need to know where to look.

Now to the chart, I have analyzed the same section of bars shown on the test chart and then continued down a bit further on the drop off.

1. This was the news bar. This bar was more of a SO bar than a buying climax as it is not into any fresh new high but with the next bar being a down bar we do see some hidden selling in that volume surge. Not time to sell by any means but a possible SOW none the less. (One thing to note is that the news was bad and SM didn’t really SO too hard to the downside… normally if they plan on heading higher they will SO, so they can buy back in lower and trap the herd short and wipe out the weak long holders… this time that did not happen and I wonder now in hindsight if this was actually a clue that they weren’t interested in going any higher?) I marked the H,L and C trigger levels of this Ultra High volume bar making a trigger zone.

2. This bar shows us that there is still some buying. I like to call this bar SM opening the door to the weak bulls slaughter pen…

3. I have marked 4 cases where prices tested and found support along the High Trigger showing that some demand was still present. Now a low volume test into this or one of the other 2 trigger levels would have been a SOS and a possible nice long entry but that does not happen.

4. Now this bar could be consider a possible buying climax as we have high volume, a mid close and are into some new high ground. SOW.

5. UT right after a buying climax followed by a down bar is another SOW but with the volume being so high I would expect this to possible be re-tested. The volume is higher than the previous bar… a re-test into this new high with a low volume UT (upside down test) or a ND would be what I would like to see now.

6. I marked this bar as it was a surge in volume on a down bar followed by another down bar so we are still seeing possible SOW.

7. Now here we have two bars back to back with the first one being an UT into new high ground but unable to close above the previous swing high. The next bar is high volume a looks like another possible buying climax making another new high and a higher close. This could look like a SOS to the herd causing the break out traders to blow up their computers hitting the buy button. The next bar was down making this another possible SOW as we are seeing sellers. This down bar closed below the close of the previous bar but still back above that previous swing high…???

Now I didn’t number it but in the circle was the ND right at the day’s high and right after another SOW. The ND touched to the pip the high of the buying climax bar and the dropped off the close on a major drop in volume. Would anyone have been brave enough to pull the trigger?

8. This bar is another SOW as it is an effort to rise with its high right into the close trigger of the bar 7 buying climax, next bar down.

9. Another SOW with yet another effort to rise this time with the high right into the previous swing high, next bar down.

So this is where my original test chart ended…

Would I have shorted that ND right at the high? I really don’t know. The old saying that in a strong uptrend UT’s and ND’s are basically worthless but in this case the uptrend had petered off and we were just drifting & ranging sideways. Plus there were quite a few SOW’s behind it… still I don’t know. If I had shorted I would have been wary of that trigger zone below as we had seen some (not much) demand at it on the previous 4 visits…

10. Bar 10 is an increased volume down bar into the trigger zone but closed above it. If the next bar had been up then the volume increase would have shown so buyers again but the next bar was down and closed into the trigger zone… in fact it closed as a NS/test bar but the high was never taken out so it becomes a bar of no importance.

11. Now here is the matching bar to bar 2… this is SM now closing the doors to the slaughter house after finishing off the last of the weak bulls. The entire move up after the news bar ended up being a trap move. The neat thing about this bar it that it is a SOW also as it is a sign that demand at the trigger zone high has been removed. Surge in volume on bar 10 and then we moved down with ease through the trigger zone.

So now we range along the bottom of the trigger zone testing it as would be expected before carrying on downward...

I marked in blue the 1min bar that closed out the 15min down bar which completed a 2bar top reversal. They took it down fast and hard off the high and if one was only following the 15min chart no short entry was offered, if one had switched to the 5min from the 15min an entry off a ND could have gotten you in for 50 or so pips. Personally after I saw how far and fast the 15min fell I dropped right to the 1min and entered off the ND marked which got me in 20+ pips sooner.


That is actually why I created this test chart for others to look at... after I saw how far down I got in I wanted to see the make-up of the move and if something else was there.

For anyone who is still reading thanks for sticking in there!

Nice Post Pres 78.

I think this was a bit of a trick question even if it was not intended to be.

There are obvious signs that the market was likely to go down. We got an up thrust into yesterday's high and then price eventually drifted back up to that level and higher but on decreasing volume. So it that the ND to short ? Well despite the obvious signs, the answer is NO if you are trying to trade in harmony with the Smart Money.

Trading in harmony with the Smart Money means trading in the direction of the trend as Gavin teaches it. Gavin teaches us that although we can anticipate the trend change as we see signs of strength or weakness, we wait for confirmation that the trend has actually changed. Once this has happened, then we look for ways to get into the trend on counter trend moves. In this case, up bars on No Demand in a downtrend.

Therefore, for most of us the answer to the question should actually be no. Even if our chart reading abilities were telling us to anticipate a change in direction, our desire to only trade in the direction of trend would not allow us to pull the trigger just yet.

There is a nice No Demand just before 10:00 that is the highest probability entry.

Friday looks like a big ND on ES. Looking for 1280 on ES next week. Sorry about not posting chart, really baked now.

Great post - Im looking forward to hearing about your time frame stepping exercises, especially if it can help me to see the charts the way you do! Im very grateful for the time you put into helping people in this thread.

If you wrote your own VSA book it'd outsell both of the Tradeguider ones combined.

Nice work.

Thanks NaughtyPip...

To anyone who owns and trades with tradeguider could you clarify a couple of curiosity questions for me?

1. Does TG email you when one of Gavin's trade sequences occurs or does one still have to wait for the 3 green or red triangles, identify the bars and decide if it makes up a sequence?
2. Why are there so many types of the same bars? I see like 10 or so ND #'s... what determines which SOW # the ND is?

Only if both of TG's book sold a total of 2 copies. I don't have the pull or power in this industry that I can only assume Gavin has. A VSA book from me would be about as popular as a Kevin Federline rap album.

Thanks for the kind words.

Thanks... Yeah I will throw together something on my TF stepping exercise when I get some free time. Travelling for work the first few days of next week so I probably won't even be trading much next week.

i looked at your chart..
i think u meant doji, not pinbar.
just a minor clarification for the others

Yes I suppose I did

Thanks for the review Pres. Good Chart analysis.

Testing median line in the weekly channel, there's a lot of room to the bottom of the channel if she decides to go that route.

Here's my view of the monthly

Pres,
Please feel free to be long winded as much as you wish. I Spent close to an hour going through that "long winded post" step by step. Very nice, thorough analysis. Actually opened my mind a bit to a broader spectrum of how the SM thinks.

Thanks for your effort.

I was goin through the action from this past week just lookin for any setups that were there that could help me identify future setups, and ran across this sequence.

I have labeled this in hindsight, but I will first say how i would have read this while it was unfolding.

Foresight analysis:
In trying to trade with the trend I would not have identified this as stopping volume, and would still be looking for no demands and upthrusts.

Arrow 1: No Demand. Also, the bar before it was no buying pressure, so I would have seen this and solidified my short bias.

Arrow 2: Upthrust. Would have definately entered short, half my risk, at the breech of this bar's low.

Arrow 3: Upthrust on low volume. Would have entered on the breech of this bar's low again with the other half of my risk. Which would have promptly been stopped out at the high of the upthrust. There is a lesson here. Wait until the bar is closed before entry. This would have kept me out of my second trade and I might have even closed my first for a small gain. But had I been right and it continued to fall I would have missed my second entry. ugh...choices...

Arrow 4: Another Upthrust on low volume. But my saving grace would have been the low was not breeched. I like to think I would recognize this as a test of supply and realized i was wrong at this point and close out both positions for a small gain. But honestly I am a newbie trader and still struggle with greed and hope, so I probably would have let it stop me out. This exercise is already teaching me a lesson. This is good.

Hindsight Analysis:

Obviously the huge volume before the bottom was stopping volume and the rest is momentum with high volume at the very bottom.

Arrow 1: Successful test with next bar up. Also, the bar before it is a test in its own right, of the stopping volume. These 2 bars should make me accept that volume as stopping volume, and turned me into a bull.

Arrow 2: Upthrust at the top of the automatic rally.

Arrow 3: Upthrust on low volume. The few bars before this did not make a lower low than the stopping volume. This fact should be more confirmation of stopping volume and even more bullishness, correct? Just noticed the bar before this is also a low volume test with close on the high. This should make me disregard this bar as an upthrust.

Arrow 4: Low volume test. However, the close is in the lower half of the bar, so honestly im not sure if this should be a test or hidden upthrust. The bar before it is a test on higher volume and strength, so I am guessing it should be called a test.

I have really only been trading for the last 4 weeks with very small positions. But I have been studying VSA and this thread for about 3 months. (I have very little time for study unfortunately)

Would you have saw this as stopping volume and became bullish as this sequence was unfolding? Would you have opened a position? If so, which way?

Other thoughts, I have been glued to my charts for the past few weeks, and it seems to me that some of the characteristics of a trend reversal is a combonation of No demands, upthrusts, tests, and no supplies. SM's attempt to confuse.

If we see odd sequences of bearish and bullish signals, can we look at this as a possible trend change? I ask because I have made a couple of trades expecting to see the trend continue only to see it go the other way. While in these trades, I ignored the signals pointing the opposite way and focused on the signals that pointed my way.

Very long and Im sorry, but im just eager to learn.

can you explain why you chose to enter there?