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Thinking Outside the Box!?!

  • #361
  • May 27, 2011 9:21pm May 27, 2011 9:21pm
Quoting Adal
Maybe you should start trading options if you like 3D


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_uWeZwUmhyc...f_08062010.bmp


http://www.tradingfloor.com/en/Publi...Apr11_Fig3.GIF
crap on a cracker... no thanks. i don't think i said i like 3d, lol.

years ago i wrote a software 3d renderer. it works great for what i wanted it for and used it for, and it has basic lighting and skeletal animation tied-into it as well. i never could figure-out how to properly texture, though. the math behind it puzzles me. so, maybe i'm simply screwed with all of this 3d thinking outside of the box business
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #362
  • Edited 10:02pm May 27, 2011 9:46pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting GEfx
Here is another view of the chart that I just posted. You exited your trade (or shorted the market) at exactly a position where professional traders are re-loading or (for the more cautious traders) entering a new position, with very small pips at risk:
Attachment

With a little TA and some good visual recognition of trade set ups, you sold where others were buying so they could capture another 50 pips:
Attachment

I do not think fear and or hope are really involved in the decision making process of professional...
This is a misunderstanding.. the "Buy Fear Sell Hope"..

that is a reference to the losing trader.. the trader I "made the money from".. NOT technically the institution

it is a motto to the typical retail trader who loses.. how I used to think.. its a reversal of that..

I am Buying at the moments the rookie / losing trader is fearing

and I am Selling at the moment the rookie / losing trader is hoping

comparing my thoughts to a rookie and losing trader.. not the institutions..

the motto is important because "90% of retail traders are losers" is the rule.. so it looks at what they do wrong.. when they buy and sell wrongly.. etc etc

So I believe this is a misunderstanding..



ALSO

"you sold where others were buying so they could capture another 50 pips"

look.. I made a live trade and profited.. posted my entry as it happen.. posted exit as it happen...

your looking back basically saying I sold when it went higher.. but its irrelevant.. so what it went up another 50 pips.. how many times have traders been in positions where price rallies up a 100 pips.. but THEY LOST MONEY.. bad stop placement.. risk management.. didn't get out when it was up 100 pips because it "might go higher" and lost all the profit etc etc..

it just irks me and I feel like your being snotty going "clearly the institutions were buying here and you were an idiot for not seeing it was going to go up another 50 pips" looks so clear looking back on weekend break doesn't it.....................

"you sold where others were buying so they could capture another 50 pips"... same is true in the case when price goes against them
  • #363
  • May 27, 2011 10:33pm May 27, 2011 10:33pm
Quoting newyear498
This is a misunderstanding.. the "Buy Fear Sell Hope"..

that is a reference to the losing trader.. the trader I "made the money from".. NOT technically the institution

it is a motto to the typical retail trader who loses.. how I used to think.. its a reversal of that..

I am Buying at the moments the rookie / losing trader is fearing

and I am Selling at the moment the rookie / losing trader is hoping

comparing my thoughts to a rookie and losing trader.. not the institutions..

the motto is important because "90% of retail traders...
Newyear, please calm down. I made the trade that I posted here, along with 7 other similar trades between the euro and the GBP. I have posted many similar trades in my journal, so there is nothing new about what I did, nor about the analysis that I use. Just saying that fear and hope have nothing to do with what is going on in the real market. I think it would be better for a new trader to learn that emotions are the scorpions that will kill your trading. The thinking that you are demonstrating is dangerous and should be removed from your "box". IMHO. BTW, please note that the quotes above are not mine, but are yours. Have a good night.
  • #364
  • Edited 11:45pm May 27, 2011 11:05pm | Edited 11:45pm
Quoting GEfx
Just saying that fear and hope have nothing to do with what is going on in the real market. I think it would be better for a new trader to learn that emotions are the scorpions that will kill your trading. The thinking that you are demonstrating is dangerous and should be removed from your "box". IMHO. BTW, please note that the quotes above are not mine, but are yours. Have a good night.
I'm sorry, but are you by any chance being serious?

An approach which exclusively relies on Technical Analysis would of course be unable to discount factors such as fear, hope, greed and expectations. No matter how you slice and dice it, a market is being traded by real people. As such there are aspects of it which will never change, due to the unequivocal humanistic component it contains.

When you realize that EUR/USD is more than just a series of up and down ticks, you realize that the pairing at any time has a prevailing sentiment. Do participants view the events going on in the EuroZone as favourable, unfavourable, or neither? Are there certain events which if they were to occur, would put participants in jeopardy? If you had a long of 50 lots at 1.40 and it turns out that Greece will be unable to meet its IMF commitments, what is the first thing you would do, and why?

I think that paying attention to the human component should rank quite high in out-of-the-boxishness, as I can assure you that if you go to the Trading Systems section right now, you would be hard pressed to find a system that incorporates it in such a manner that allows profits to be extracted.

Your reference to scorpions makes me think of FTI. While his philosophy of the market may resonate with him, you have to account for the fact that a bank trader and speculative participants approach the game from drastically different ends of the field. His way of skinning the cat is not the only way that works.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #365
  • May 28, 2011 1:10am May 28, 2011 1:10am
Quoting GEfx
Here is another view of the chart that I just posted. You exited your trade (or shorted the market) at exactly a position where professional traders are re-loading or (for the more cautious traders) entering a new position, with very small pips at risk:
Attachment

With a little TA and some good visual recognition of trade set ups, you sold where others were buying so they could capture another 50 pips:
Attachment

I do not think fear and or hope are really involved in the decision making process of professional...
now why in the world would anyone take you seriously if you can't even draw a trendline correctly?
  • #366
  • Edited 4:34am May 28, 2011 1:50am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting newyear498

I am Buying at the moments the rookie / losing trader is fearing

and I am Selling at the moment the rookie / losing trader is hoping

comparing my thoughts to a rookie and losing trader.. not the institutions..

the motto is important because "90% of retail traders are losers" is the rule.. so it looks at what they do wrong.. when they buy and sell wrongly.. etc etc
Your comments are interesting and I think misleading. The institutions have a plan on how to trade and extract money (if that is even their plan). The 90% of losing retail traders more or less are calling trades at random, changing strategies all the time... Now they are not one entity where all of them are hoping or fearing at one point in time. So basically what you suggest is to reverse random calls. But reversing random calls simply leads to random calls again.
If you wanna get ahead you have to think like the professionals and institutions, what they might be up to. That makes much more sense, than trying to superimpose feelings of rookie traders on the market, who are anyways trading randomly.
  • #367
  • May 28, 2011 1:54am May 28, 2011 1:54am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I'm sorry, but are you by any chance being serious?

An approach which exclusively relies on Technical Analysis would of course be unable to discount factors such as fear, hope, greed and expectations. No matter how you slice and dice it, a market is being traded by real people. As such there are aspects of it which will never change, due to the unequivocal humanistic component it contains.

When you realize that EUR/USD is more than just a series of up and down ticks, you realize that the pairing at any time has a prevailing sentiment....
Technical analysis can definitely indicate the sentiments in the market. But I agree that a fundamental understanding is also not too bad to have a higher win-rate.
  • #368
  • May 28, 2011 3:57am May 28, 2011 3:57am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I'm sorry, but are you by any chance being serious?

An approach which exclusively relies on Technical Analysis would of course be unable to discount factors such as fear, hope, greed and expectations. No matter how you slice and dice it, a market is being traded by real people. As such there are aspects of it which will never change, due to the unequivocal humanistic component it contains.

When you realize that EUR/USD is more than just a series of up and down ticks, you realize that the pairing at any time has a prevailing sentiment....
now you'll have them all hunting you down and whining at your door for saying such blasphemy. it is highly amusing. those guys love me.

is it really worth following the cliched "big dogs" and "smart money"? at what point did anyone state they were smart and going the right way or trading the right way? a retailer and their savings is not the same as someone with the funds of half a nation backing them and the mistakes they can afford to make.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #369
  • May 28, 2011 4:35am May 28, 2011 4:35am
Quoting nubcake
now you'll have them all hunting you down and whining at your door for saying such blasphemy. it is highly amusing. those guys love me.

is it really worth following the cliched "big dogs" and "smart money"? at what point did anyone state they were smart and going the right way or trading the right way? a retailer and their savings is not the same as someone with the funds of half a nation backing them and the mistakes they can afford to make.
true and good point... but like trizzle's example with "what if they had 50 lots at 1.40..." you're not necessarily trading with them, rather trading the repercussions of the order flow they will inevitably generate. of course, they don't always get it right and things cause them to par back positions, or all together get out asap, etc...
  • #370
  • May 28, 2011 4:39am May 28, 2011 4:39am
Quoting Monroe
true and good point... but like trizzle's example with "what if they had 50 lots at 1.40..." you're not necessarily trading with them, rather trading the repercussions of the order flow they will inevitably generate. of course, they don't always get it right and things cause them to par back positions, or all together get out asap, etc...
yup. i know what you are saying. again it comes back to the usual implosion both ways of going with something versus fading something (trend, method, whatever). hence, the box is a tricky little beast and why escaping it is desirable.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #371
  • May 28, 2011 5:48am May 28, 2011 5:48am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx

Your reference to scorpions makes me think of FTI. While his philosophy of the market may resonate with him, you have to account for the fact that a bank trader and speculative participants approach the game from drastically different ends of the field. His way of skinning the cat is not the only way that works.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Exactly, but what he exposes in his posts are the speculative areas and habbits that he took advantage. TA signals are seen by the entire market, specially in the area of order placements. The majority of speculative punters are single-minded and habitual in their trading, easy prey for Institutional size participants. Recognizing these events, seeing the possibilities before hand, understanding pa during them are all clues.

fwiw.
  • #372
  • May 28, 2011 6:54am May 28, 2011 6:54am
Quoting GEfx
Newyear, please calm down. I made the trade that I posted here, along with 7 other similar trades between the euro and the GBP. I have posted many similar trades in my journal, so there is nothing new about what I did, nor about the analysis that I use. Just saying that fear and hope have nothing to do with what is going on in the real market. I think it would be better for a new trader to learn that emotions are the scorpions that will kill your trading. The thinking that you are demonstrating is dangerous and should be removed from your "box"....
GEfx,

You've been constructive in all your posts from a long time back in this tread I appreciate your inputs..

I also understand everything your saying and have said...

Please understand this...

Thanks again for your contributions,
NY
  • #373
  • May 28, 2011 6:58am May 28, 2011 6:58am
Quoting nubcake
some would be pushing away from the average attempting to capture trend movements, others would be targeting towards it to fade recent movements. in my head it's all twisted since either way you slice it you usually get caught going the wrong way in either case.

this might be a perfect example of what i'm not seeing that others are.

the number 23... i heard it was a terrible movie. i'm either going to love it or hate it, i'm sure. interesting movie suggestion and i will endeavour to watch it in the next few days (once i get some proper...
This is what shackles your mind, it's not anything on anyone but you. This is ego related problem.

I refer you back to the little quote I hang on my wall:

The difference between a successful trader and an unsuccessful trader:

The successful trader will do what an unsuccessful trader can't and won't do.


I know this first hand because it was me 6 years ago. Thankfully it only took me 4 years to realize it.

There is no silver bullet in FX, that's what people think there is... but it's a fairy tale.

When I said start over, I meant look for something new... but when you look at things from a glass half empty perspective everything is tainted.

You can't find something new, when you dismiss everything away without trying... that is on you buddy. You will never find anything without effort.

As far as the movie goes, just pay attention to how it could possibly relate to what I am saying here. Pay attention to why "23" is so significant to the movie.... this isn't a pleasure seeking mission you should be thinking thru the whole movie how this could possibly relate to FX.
  • #374
  • May 28, 2011 7:14am May 28, 2011 7:14am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I'm sorry, but are you by any chance being serious?

An approach which exclusively relies on Technical Analysis would of course be unable to discount factors such as fear, hope, greed and expectations. No matter how you slice and dice it, a market is being traded by real people. As such there are aspects of it which will never change, due to the unequivocal humanistic component it contains.

When you realize that EUR/USD is more than just a series of up and down ticks, you realize that the pairing at any time has a prevailing sentiment....
I completely agree with you that the human element of trading is out of the box, which is something I have said several times here. Fear and hope, on the other hand, drive retail traders, but not "the big boys". That is not to say that individual traders at large institutions are not at time hopeful or fearful. Collectively, the institutions are not. IMHO, and based on my experiences, they are driven by other factors that are way beyond retail traders. And, most important, they have access to processes and relationships that we can only dream about. But, if you understand what those processes and relationships are doing, then you can use TA to help you follow them around as they collectively go about their jobs (BTW, I agree with whoever suggested the FA is also important. I think all successful traders operate with a combined approach to TA and FA).

Yes, I am a regular participant in fti's thread, but I do not trade the same way he trades. He is way smarter than me, and has experiences that I can't even imagine. We use TA differently, but we share the human elements of trading stuff, which for me makes his thread of great value. There are those who are never going to get the human element, who believe that trading can be reduced to its technical elements and then programmed into a server. I respect that, but until they have figured out how to write those programs, threads like fti's are a good place to participate. As is this thread!

As for trend lines, I think the way I draw them works perfectly for me. I was not trying to demonstrate the best and only true way to draw trend lines, just showing one (of many, I have nearly worn out the Draw Tend Line button on my charts -- LOL) that I had on my trading charts from today. Let's not go to a discussion on trend lines, please.
  • #375
  • May 28, 2011 7:17am May 28, 2011 7:17am
Quoting pip_seeker
This is what shackles your mind, it's not anything on anyone but you. This is ego related problem.

I refer you back to the little quote I hang on my wall:

The difference between a successful trader and an unsuccessful trader:

The successful trader will do what an unsuccessful trader can't and won't do.


I know this first hand because it was me 6 years ago. Thankfully it only took me 4 years to realize it.

There is no silver bullet in FX, that's what people think there is... but it's a fairy tale.

When I said start over, I...
of course. shifting the perspective is the point of wanting to think outside of the box. i'm currently reminded of the scenes in mallrats with the magic eye picture.

and re "23". again, of course. i won't be watching simply to be entertained. i'm taking a guess already as to the general story from what i've seen and read about it. you might suggest this is a bad thing to have a bias already, but i can't help but have forethought about most things at most times as information unfolds before me. this is how my mind works and why i often see things that others around me don't. it's not ignorance or arrogance... it just is what it is. in fact, this whole paragraph is based on assumptions and forethought, whether i am right or wrong

your point remains valid as it always has. my mental blocks will either stay or go. inspiration through perspiration is the goal, insanity is the risk.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #376
  • May 28, 2011 7:19am May 28, 2011 7:19am
Quoting newyear498
GEfx,

You've been constructive in all your posts from a long time back in this tread I appreciate your inputs..

I also understand everything your saying and have said...

Please understand this...

Thanks again for your contributions,
NY
Look, trading is perhaps the most difficult and lonely job you can have. That loney part sometimes slips into my posts when I get "snotty" and I am sorry for that. And, I am sorry for posts that I have made in the past directed towards you. Not fair of me to do those things. Moving on...
  • #377
  • May 28, 2011 7:23am May 28, 2011 7:23am
Quoting nubcake
of course. shifting the perspective is the point of wanting to think outside of the box. i'm currently reminded of the scenes in mallrats with the magic eye picture.

and re "23". again, of course. i won't be watching simply to be entertained. i'm taking a guess already as to the general story from what i've seen and read about it. you might suggest this is a bad thing to have a bias already, but i can't help but have forethought about most things at most times as information unfolds before me. this is how my mind works and why i often see things...
A forethought is never a bad thing, because you have to use your mind to obtain it... but don't just stop with the forethought and dismiss everything else, keep thinking and challenging your opinion to verify that it is correct... and then continually recheck it. You're never done re-evaluating.

Don't let your ego crowd out the thinking process by dismissing everything as irrelevant.
  • #378
  • May 28, 2011 7:40am May 28, 2011 7:40am
Quoting pip_seeker
A forethought is never a bad thing, because you have to use your mind to obtain it... but don't just stop with the forethought and dismiss everything else, keep thinking and challenging your opinion to verify that it is correct... and then continually recheck it. You're never done re-evaluating.

Don't let your ego crowd out the thinking process by dismissing everything as irrelevant.
true true. i can only call things as i see them. sometimes you immediately know a duck is a duck because it looks like one and quacks like one, and sometimes you catch one, cook it, and it tastes like one (this is happening on the factory right this moment btw).

my concern is that a lot of what i read, even from your posts (right or wrong), gives me the feeling of trading on a degree of faith. i don't want one aspect of trading for profits be based on any unknown, therefore, requiring any degree of faith or hope. that's not to suggest that i'm wanting to build the perfect system or methodology. rather, that all aspects of the methodology have risks which are clearly known and defined and entirely accounted for, and nothing is left up in the air. i think you understand what i mean. in return, it's probable that i simply don't understand what you mean.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #379
  • May 28, 2011 8:35am May 28, 2011 8:35am
Quoting nubcake
now you'll have them all hunting you down and whining at your door for saying such blasphemy. it is highly amusing. those guys love me.

is it really worth following the cliched "big dogs" and "smart money"? at what point did anyone state they were smart and going the right way or trading the right way? a retailer and their savings is not the same as someone with the funds of half a nation backing them and the mistakes they can afford to make.
The biggest money doesn't have to be right, they ARE ALWAYS right because they drive the market.
  • #380
  • May 28, 2011 8:40am May 28, 2011 8:40am
Quoting jag1966
The biggest money doesn't have to be right, they ARE ALWAYS right because they drive the market.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
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