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EURUSD & Heiken Ashi

  • #121
  • May 27, 2011 2:22pm May 27, 2011 2:22pm
Nice but a lot of indicators to confirm what the HA told you. I'm going to hold my long until the daily HA changes wherever that may be.
  • #122
  • May 27, 2011 3:54pm May 27, 2011 3:54pm
True.

Probably not as many indicators as most, but Capital Preservation is of the upmost importance, so whatever technical tools I need to confirm, and possibly confirm again a movement, I will definitely add to the arsenal.

But your point is well taken.

If I had the nerve to trade "naked" without feeling that I would need to explain to my wife that I tanked our portfolio, I would. Probably.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #123
  • May 27, 2011 5:04pm May 27, 2011 5:04pm
Quoting MuddBuddha
True.

Probably not as many indicators as most, but Capital Preservation is of the upmost importance, so whatever technical tools I need to confirm, and possibly confirm again a movement, I will definitely add to the arsenal.

But your point is well taken.

If I had the nerve to trade "naked" without feeling that I would need to explain to my wife that I tanked our portfolio, I would. Probably.
Well better to be safe than sorry. I am in no way criticising as the only person that benefits or suffers from my actions is me.

It's good to know that someone else has the same ideas about heiken ashi on daily charts anyway. I prefer to use ma's to determine a trend and then look for reversals in the direction of the trend but I'm sure there are many, many people who use many, many indicators in a slightly different way to achieve the same result.
  • #124
  • May 27, 2011 5:36pm May 27, 2011 5:36pm
Well, I prefer the Elder method of buying into the trend on a pullback to the 20MA. I use the TOS indicator (PPS), which is a fast and slow MA to know when to cover my profits.

The bottom indicator is a Fischer Transform that I use to make sure momentum is on my side.

The HA is typically good at determining trend. If the candles stay consistent for at least 5 candles, you're probably in a trend.

Observing the other indices is just a safety net; as is the 2nd daily chart which is brown in color (Prophet). It's there just in case the TOS charts stop working for some reason.

Nothing like being redundantly redundant.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #125
  • May 28, 2011 12:23am May 28, 2011 12:23am
I've been looking at HA on weekly and monthly charts. I'm wondering if you could trade all pairs (or maybe just the majors) on an always in basis the rules being you reverse the trade after the second consecutive HA change so if you're trending up you stay long until you get two consecutive reds when you change to short and hold until you get two consecutive whites. This way you would definitely get whipsawed a few times but some of the trends you would catch would be huge and on the monthly chart they would run for years in some cases.

You could refine the rules quite a bit but another tweak I thought of was to add to the trade at the end of each consecutive month of it going in the same direction. That way you are losing a minimum on the whipsaw months but really compounding your gains on the long trends.

Of course you'd have to be super patient to run a system like that.
  • #126
  • May 28, 2011 10:02am May 28, 2011 10:02am
You would definitely need a substantial stop loss to withstand the whipsaw and possible false entry.

Personally, I only trade the EUR/USD. I used to trade more pairs, but realized that it's difficult to multi-task across many pairs and I could accomplish the same P/L requirements/goals by merely increasing my lots on a single pair. This way my time is devoted to analyzing one pair, one market, thereby increasing my odds of success.

Some people can trade multiples, though not many. A recent research report showed that most people aren't as good at multi-tasking as they thought themselves to be. Most humans are single focus minded making it difficult to analyze multiple pairs across multiple timeframes.

I believe there is a different mindset when you invest for wealth Vs. investing for income.

If I were going to venture outside the DAILY, I would probably start with the weekly and once a substantial amount of excess P/L was accumulated, then migrate to a monthly chart as long as the two charts (and possibly three with the daily as a consideration) agree.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #127
  • May 28, 2011 10:18am May 28, 2011 10:18am
Quoting MuddBuddha
You would definitely need a substantial stop loss to withstand the whipsaw and possible false entry.

Personally, I only trade the EUR/USD. I used to trade more pairs, but realized that it's difficult to multi-task across many pairs and I could accomplish the same P/L requirements/goals by merely increasing my lots on a single pair. This way my time is devoted to analyzing one pair, one market, thereby increasing my odds of success.

Some people can trade multiples, though not many. A recent research report showed that most people aren't as good...
Looking at the eurusd monthly chart this method would have been successful over the last few years but who's to say that wouldn't change?

Another idea I had was to trade congestion breakouts using HA. HA candles do sometimes consolidate and move sideways for a period of time forming a number of dojis or at least candles with quite small bodies. The direction it takes after these consolidations is usually pretty decisive.
  • #128
  • May 28, 2011 5:38pm May 28, 2011 5:38pm
If you look at the monthly, it's really not all that bad. I see a couple of areas around 2003-2004 where you would have been stopped out for around a 500-600 point loss, but the gains are tremendous. (screen attached).
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Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #129
  • May 30, 2011 2:56am May 30, 2011 2:56am
Quoting MuddBuddha
If you look at the monthly, it's really not all that bad. I see a couple of areas around 2003-2004 where you would have been stopped out for around a 500-600 point loss, but the gains are tremendous. (screen attached).
Yes, I do believe the infamous Jacko did say that eurusd is the most trending pair.
  • #130
  • May 30, 2011 8:27am May 30, 2011 8:27am
I would agree. Not only does it tend to trend the majority of it's yearly cycles, but it typically respects S/R zones very well making it somewhat predictable in it's behavior.

I have two examples of S/R lines on my current chart (one a little more zoomed out than the other). These are rough zones I placed for the purpose of example only. Precise lines don't actually exist. They are more like "fuzzy zones" of S/R and will only become more so as volume increases.

The tops of previous levels tend to become the bottoms of future movements and vice versa.

It is, by volume, the most traded pair currently. I don't see that ending any time soon since we tend to flock to markets with the quality of features the EUR/USD exhibits.
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Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #131
  • May 30, 2011 8:45am May 30, 2011 8:45am
Typically, on a steady trend, a movement will last approximately 200-400 points before a minor pullback. A stronger trend may net 600 points or more often resulting in a stronger pullback.

Technically, you could label the movement from 1.34 to 1.49 a wave on a larger cycle, thus producing the current pullback we're seeing the bottom chop zone of. The HA candles will tell the tale over the next week or so.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #132
  • May 30, 2011 9:24am May 30, 2011 9:24am
Quoting MuddBuddha
Typically, on a steady trend, a movement will last approximately 200-400 points before a minor pullback. A stronger trend may net 600 points or more often resulting in a stronger pullback.

Technically, you could label the movement from 1.34 to 1.49 a wave on a larger cycle, thus producing the current pullback we're seeing the bottom chop zone of. The HA candles will tell the tale over the next week or so.
I agree with all of the above.

I've started incorporating significant round numbers into my analysis in line with the "silent service method". It makes a lot of sense to me. So I trade with the trend but take into account the most significant round numbers. I'm happy so far.
  • #133
  • May 31, 2011 7:48am May 31, 2011 7:48am
The LONG hit a high of +157(ish) early this morning and has pulled back to around +94.

No stop movement yet.

My target to cover is 1.4690 (+400), however, I could see a possible hurdle at 1.45. (SEE CHART IN PREVIOUS POST)
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #134
  • Jun 1, 2011 12:34pm Jun 1, 2011 12:34pm
After a lot of back and forth P/L, I decided to close the LONG @ +86 as the Dow has lost of 2% and isn't looking like it will recover anytime soon.

The top was +157 and I had moved the TP to 1.45 in expectation of resistance at that level. However, the market seems to have other plans. I will scale back into a LONG @ 1.4390 if the market recovers; otherwise I will sit out and wait for a good solid entry signal. Typically, I like to get a minimum of 2:1 and this trade was planned for 3.5:1.

It is what it is.

The 50/100/200 MA's on the DJX Daily are beginning to gap closer together. Could be foretelling a bad Dow summer.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #135
  • Jun 1, 2011 1:06pm Jun 1, 2011 1:06pm
Well....okay. Tripped right back in.

So, LONG (again); from 1.4390. TP is (again) 400 points to cover unless directed otherwise.

STOP is tighter this time: 1.3920.

In the event the Dow continues to dive this week and the /DX starts to gain some upward momentum, I'd prefer not to lose the whole 125 I would normally risk.

GOLD has been holding the USD back during the DOW plunge and may well continue to do so.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #136
  • Jun 15, 2011 9:41am Jun 15, 2011 9:41am
Quoting realjumper
Yes, I use HA candles on some charts as part of confirmation of other analysis. Try this......chuck a moving average on your chart as per the pic below. If the candles are red AND below the MA.....go short. If the candles are white AND above the MA....go long.
Awesome Advice!! I will try this, I will probably add one more ma to it.

Exponential or Simple you think?
  • #137
  • Feb 1, 2012 1:12am Feb 1, 2012 1:12am
This thread has been dormant for a little while, and that's my fault as much as anyone else's. I am trading with a different system but I do keep checking my trades and set ups against the Heiken Ashi set up as I have posted in this thread.

The reality (for me) is that the HA candles plus the MA and the stochastic is pretty hard to beat. I do flick back to 'normal' Japanese candles from time to time, but the HA method is great for getting into the trade.

I'll post some charts as we go along but right now, I'm short at 3065
Attached Image
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #138
  • Feb 1, 2012 1:30am Feb 1, 2012 1:30am
Quoting realjumper

I'll post some charts as we go along but right now, I'm short at 3065
That one is closed for +32......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #139
  • Feb 1, 2012 2:29am Feb 1, 2012 2:29am
This would have been a good counter-trend trade (with hindsight), but i didn't take it. It's an M5 chart by-the-way
Attached Image
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #140
  • Last Post: Apr 1, 2013 1:59pm Apr 1, 2013 1:59pm
rj,

How about reviving your thread with some more charts? I love this thread!

BC2
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