EURUSD & Heiken Ashi

funny, went long on that move...

Why the Dollar's Reign Is Near an End
For decades the dollar has served as the world's main reserve currency, but, argues Barry Eichengreen, it will soon have to share that role. Here's why—and what it will mean for international markets and companies.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...cies_LeadStory

2nd and last long today...

looks like 1.3860 is holding

Exactly.....when u see these articles start appearing, you know the counter-trend is coming. The fact remains, the US still has resources, people and mineral/plant water....much more robut than europe. China......perhaps for a bit, but I don't' think it'll be long lasting as a stable replacement.

Special Drawing Rights? SDR? right....My guess is that'lll work about as well for international currency balance as the UN for stopping wars.

That is up to soo many people that its close to impossible to say though...





----
You Snooze, You Lose
For individual investors, trading currencies is high stakes, high leverage—and highly addictive

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...es_LEFTTopNews

Yep, I think I'm done for the day...and maybe even for the week. There's too much news coming and it depends not only what is said, but how it is said. It could be that a lot of this rise this week is due to pricing in regarding the EU bank rate announcement in a few hours time.....then there is USA unemployment, then Trichet is going to flap his gums, the Bernanke is going to yap....then there's NFP. Could be great....could be whipsaw central too!!!! Next week it should be service back to normal.

Why The First $1 Million Is The Hardest

http://financialedge.investopedia.co...e-Hardest.aspx

A Failed trade is a lesson learnt, how many lessons do you need?


I consider myself a humble person, I might not be one but I feel that I do listen to others and I keep an open mind, even if its totally against every trading textbook I have read. Its when people don't understand the basic maths I get annoyed.

I have been trading for some years and I am doing ok. I believe the major reason for this is because my expectations have been lowered as time has past by. I am more relaxed about a trade because I have tested it on a demo before I go live. I am stubborn in that even if I loose 2 times on a row I keep going, it doesn't scare me. You will be surprised how many trades I have taken which looks really bad but have given me the most in the end. However this exploits my edge which is why having a plan really works.

Knowing when you should exit a single trade is hard but knowing when you should chuck a whole system is extremely hard but crucial for survival and should be in your plan.

However, I am a strong believer in take what the market give you and trade as little as possible... I am saying this even if you like it or not its similar to poker; if you get AK you have 45% chance of winning and will kill you in the long run. But in poker tournaments there is no long run. It ends, so AK is good cards. In trading you are there for a very long time giving AK not as good possibility for survival. And you need more than 50 w% chance for survival.

I also believe that ForexFactory and everything else you read online can hurt you badly, for example. It took me years to understand that risk reward is BS and probably the biggest myth (for me). I am saying for me, because for you this might be different psychology wise.. You have to figure it out and this is why you need to have an open mind...

You have to see the chart as you see it and fine tune your system on a demo acc. think about why this went wrong and what could you have done differently. No one else can help you with this, only you know how you work and failing a trade should give you way more than a winning one.

So if you are trading intra, try something different this week, try to trade less and think over what went wrong. Was there news you forgot. Was there a strong selloff you couldn't see. Was that a high probability trade or just plain greed from you? Should I increase the lot size? Should I decrease it? How will the spread affect me? Is there liquidity? How was the last 20 trades with this system?

Also put in a goal this week, I will risk 400 dollars and my aim is to get 1200 on 4-6 trades. This leaves me with the 1000 I need for survival and 200 for a bigger screen

Try it on a demo and see if your up for the "impossible task" Trading for a living....

Thinking about deleting this post but I think Ill just post it

Enjoy the rest of the week-end...

Good thing you posted this - might cure weaknesses of a lot of newbies who think that they can learn all they know from Forums. There was a very good thread on FF - Cable Update - it has been destroyed by two attention craving blokes who wanted everyone to trade their way. Slowly the attendance dropped off .. now it is almost dead - all the good posters are gone because no good trader wants to cope with demeaning posts referring to their trades. So, a very good resource for Newbies is gone...

IMO cross comments on trades of others should be BANNED : give your opinion and leave it at that - your are not responsible for OP Trading. One blighter sometimes ended his posts by saying,"well, it is your own money" if you did not follow his way.

Well Newbies, be warned - prolific posters have perhaps nothing bertter to do and all smart talk does not always spring from knowledge. The best way to make use of Forum is Read and Judge: if you like someone's posts, try to follow them and see the reasoning behing.

Good Luck to all !

Totally agree with you that R:R is a bunch of nothing. I've heard from most pro traders that they are fine with a 1:1 RRR if they win enough. Many newbies here this and then listen to some email marketer or fancy book that says they need a 2:1 what happens is they don't take a good setup because it doesn't have the 2:1 RRR. RRR gets really tough when your trading multiple lots for instance if my stop on all contracts is 50 and my limit to take off 1/2 of the position 25 how do I know RRR? The market could hit my limit and then soar for a 1000 pip gain, there is no way to measure it! This got me to backtesting and paper-trading (in my opinion better than demo) which showed me the truth. I still require my stop on all my contracts and my limit on my take off 1/2 to be equal if trading against trend, I call this an equality. Trading with the trend all you need is a .5 equality (25 pip limit to take off 1/2 and 50 pip stop). Did you come up with similar results?

I also learned the truth about indicators which is that they only help when you know candlesticks and fibs. All my systems rely on indicators but also rely on jap candles, and what I call "market factors", its pretty cool what I found. What I found is that if you have an indicator signal (for instance a bearish divergence) all you do is see if its up against a daily/weekly pivot, S/R, fib, whether it is a steep trend (more than 60 degrees), whether or not the COT report is with it etc... I then subtract .1% risk for every market factor against my indicator signal and add it for every market factor with it. It then sticks the most capital on the trades which have more factors with them, sticks average risk on trades with very little with and very little against, and sticks significantly less on trades which have virtually nothing with them. I take no credit for finding this because it was there all the time, but I thank my Lord, Jesus that I found it because it has turned my trading completely around.

I agree with you Larseg about taking trades which look very bad especially since the main thing I trade is divergence which looks very scary to some traders but I have just started trading it and for the past 8 months I'm breakeven (because I was to scared to take great divergence trades). Anways sorry for the long post :nerd:

God bless you in your trading

Some good posts on this thread recently....nice to see.

My 5c on the r/r matter is a bit different. I am reluctant to enter a trade with a r/r less than 2:1. I know where I plan to exit before I even enter, and at that time, I want to see 2:1 or better. It doesn't always work out that way, sometimes I exit at 1:1 or less, but I have a plan before I enter. The reason I look for 2:1 or better is because I can't be watching the screen at all times, and if I get stopped out at (say) 1:1, now I have a one trade deficit. If that happens (say) 3 times in a row, then I have to win 3 trades (at 1:1) to get back to break even. I would rather enter with a plan of 2:1, but, as I say, it doesn't always end up that way. Conversly, sometimes it ends up much better than I planned for.

I think the whole r/r thing depends very much on your trading style and system. There is no hard and fast rule that must be followed, and those that say there is, are wrong.....imo.

Totally agree with you there RJ, up to each and one...


This is funny,
Euro Rally Masking Political Discord as EU Leaders Battle Debt

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...over-debt.html

LOL.....I was just reading that a moment before I came here to see your post!!! I have to agree with large parts of that article....this EU rally is bullshit...it's not backed up by anything. It's pure speculation of an interest hike next week (edit: next month I should have said). The situation in the EZ is no better than it was 6 months ago.....in fact it's worse. Conversly USA is showing signs of growth and lessening uemployment.

I am waiting for all this nonsense to end, so we can get back to reality, and the reality is that the EU is still in deep shit. They are even arguing over the terms of the Greece bailout.....which is already settled last year, and the reason for the arguing is that the new Irish govt got elected on the promise that they would renegotiate the Irish bailout terms. Hmmmm....I don't see that Ireland or Greece are in any position to call any shots whatsoever.

Trichet talks of raising interst rates....go ahead Trichet.....stop talking about it and do it. I'm sure that many countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal etc etc will thank you for it </sarcasm>.

0413 GMT [Dow Jones] The EUR/USD rises on buying from macro funds amid growing expectations the ECB is eyeing a rate hike in the near term, says a fund manager at a major Japanese investment fund. "As a potential rate hike next month becomes the mainstream view, expectations are growing for additional rate hikes this year," he adds. The EUR/USD is at 1.3985 from an earlier low of 1.3956. The pair may rise to 1.4050 later in the global day, he says. ([email protected])

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Not much action in here guys, is no one trading with H.Ashi?




LONDON (Dow Jones)--European stocks are expected to open sharply lower Thursday following steep declines in Asia as the unrest in Libya showed no sign of abating, the price of crude oil rose again, China reported a surprise trade deficit and Moody's downgraded Spain's credit rating.

"Risk proxies were the worst performers overnight. Equities were a sea of red," said Sue Trinh, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "Metals slumped, led by the base complex... In FX, AUD and NZD were the worst performers. The catalyst for the move was China reporting an unexpected $7.3 billion trade deficit in February against expectations of a surplus of $4.9 billion."

Investors were bracing themselves for a bumpy ride Thursday, particularly after Moody's downgraded Spain's rating to Aa2 with a negative outlook. IG Markets called London's FTSE 100 index down 44 points, or 0.7%, at 5893, Frankfurt's DAX 58 points, or 0.8%, lower at 7074 and Paris's CAC-40 down 35, or 0.9%, at 3959.

As well as concerns about the escalating violence in Libya, China's surprise trade deficit in February will likely hurt basic-resources stocks as demand from the world's second largest economy is brought into question.

Meanwhile, the European economic calendar will gather pace. The focus will likely be on the Bank of England's interest rate announcement at 1200 GMT. The interest rate is expected to be held at 0.5% and no changes are anticipated to the bank's asset purchase program. It is unlikely there will be any statement alongside the decision, so investors will have to wait for the release of the monetary policy committee's meeting minutes in two weeks' time for further details.

Elsewhere, French industrial production is due at 0745 GMT and the German trade balance is due at 0800 GMT.

In Asia, stocks were lower Thursday as escalating fighting in Libya dented sentiment, while Shanghai and other markets were also hit by China's reporting of a trade deficit.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average was off 1.5%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.4% and South Korea's Kospi Composite was 1.0% lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.9% and China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.3%.

Shares in China extended early losses after the data showed the first trade deficit since March last year, down from a $6.45 billion surplus in January, and contrasting sharply with the median forecast for a February surplus of $3.9 billion in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 13 economists.

While slower exports growth was expected due to the early February Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, the outcome was much worse than many had predicted.

Imports rose 19.4% on-year and exports rose at a slower 2.4% pace, both well below expectations.

Regional markets, which were already on the back foot due to jitters over higher crude oil prices, reacted negatively to the China data on worries a slowdown in the Asian economic juggernaut could impact global growth.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks edged narrowly lower, as tensions in Libya trapped trading in a tight range on the two-year anniversary of the bull market's start.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index slipped 0.1% to 1320.02, exactly two years after the measure hit its lowest close of the bear market at 677. Since March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has surged more than 95%.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% to 2751.72. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged closed flat at 12,213.09, a gain of nearly 87% from its March 2009 low of 6547.

Earlier this year, the S&P 500 had doubled its level from the March 2009 lows, but it has pulled back recently in the wake of the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.

Among commodities, April Nymex crude oil futures were up 54 cents at $104.92 per barrel at 0730 GMT as fighting escalated in Libya, with reports of damage to key oil facilities.

In the foreign exchanges, the dollar rose as heightened tensions in Libya and the unexpected China trade deficit encouraged selling of currencies regarded as riskier.

The euro was trading at $1.3817, down from $1.3909 late in New York on Wednesday. The dollar was at Y82.80, up from Y82.74.

Spot gold was at $1430.40 per troy ounce, down $1.60 from its New York settlement price Wednesday. The June bund contract was up 0.48 at 122.07.


-By Andrea Tryphonides, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9281; [email protected]


Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?...cqpc%2FQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

After pjuking alot throughout the week-end swapping from beer to sparkling wine on Saturday I am now ready for an intense week with plenty of pips heading my way....

Looks like we are building up some momentum here and bulls are still in play...

Interesting thread about heiken ashi. I don't know about shorter time frames as I never trade anything less than daily but you may want to have a look at the following and see if it would work on other time frames.

I use 30, 50 and 100 sma's to determine the overall trend, heiken ashi candles and a 3 sma of the typical price (pivot point) to give me the entry.

When the 3 main ma's are moving in a strong trend they will be moving more or less parallel to each other and price will usually be bouncing off the 30 or 50 sma. I watch for the price coming near and a HA reversal (usually best to wait for the second candle) at that point but also I like it to close the other side of the 3 sma. I also take into account round numbers, fibonacci and counter trend lines.

It gets you into some good trades with the trend and bad trades are usually ditched quite quickly if the HA changes again.

I use it as well on the Daily, so I'm gonna jump in on this thread as well.

I use it in combination with a few other indicators to know when to jump in and out.

I posted a few screens of my analysis desktop.

If the market holds above this level (4230ish), then a LONG signal should be confirmed across the board.

VIX is trending down, DJX is reversing to the topside, /DX is reversing down, and GLD is still trending up.

Everything seems to be in line.

Thoughts? Criticisms?

Investopedia has a good write up on Heiken Ashi candles for anyone who is unfamiliar with them.

Just FYI:

I did have an entry order at .4290 which was triggered.

-125 SL, +400 TP.

I won't trail this. I'll watch for indications from the charts that an exit may present itself sooner than my cover level.