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Silent Service Method

  • #12,441
  • May 27, 2011 12:18am May 27, 2011 12:18am
Quoting Hugh Briss
I woke up 120 pips up so I've moved to break even. It would be nice to see 1.45 but maybe even 1.49?

I've read quite a bit of this thread so far with help from the index on the first post. I really like the method set out here and as it happens I am using something similar already just not quite as logically set out and thought through.

I particularly like the psychological stuff like placing a trade and forgetting about it and what trading is all about ie freedom from a job NOT a second job involving 16 hours at a screen.

Thanks Clockwork,...
Thanks man. I am glad to hear you are doing so well on the trade. I agree with being a little cautious now - this pair is only one random comment away from melting back down.

Of course, while we were looking at the EUR/USD trying to figure which way it wants to go - the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF has been a one-way trade......
  • #12,442
  • May 27, 2011 5:11am May 27, 2011 5:11am
Quoting clockwork71
Thanks man. I am glad to hear you are doing so well on the trade. I agree with being a little cautious now - this pair is only one random comment away from melting back down.

Of course, while we were looking at the EUR/USD trying to figure which way it wants to go - the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF has been a one-way trade......
I'm not sure about eurchf, I tend not to trade it after the Swiss central bank messed me up a few times, but usdchf has been blazing a trail hasn't it? Reading your method through it makes 0.8550 very interesting to watch. I suppose a break of that means fresh all time lows but how much further can it go?

In terms of eurusd I've been trading with 3 moving averages for trend direction and a much smaller MA combined with heiken ashi for entries on bounces from the 3 trendlines provided they are running fairly smoothly and eurusd last night fit the bill.

I have been using round numbers for support and resistance and a bit of fibonacci thrown in but I think incorporating your method of determining the strongest levels of S and R on a weekly chart and then using the daily to look for trend continuation patterns as I have been but also trend reversals at these strong SR levels will be great. It's ok following a trend but when the trend hits a brick wall for no apparent reason it's nice to know why!

One question I have is should I be concentrating on finding exact levels to draw a line at an exact round number or is the general area more important and if so how wide is too wide?
  • #12,443
  • May 27, 2011 8:18am May 27, 2011 8:18am
Quoting InfinitySL
Wow....
I'm definitely not a socialist (somehow those guys seem to be missing in forex forums ). And anyone that reaches such a conclusion after reading what Stiglitz wrote has completely failed to understand the issue.

Simply put, in my interpretation, the criticism Stiglitz puts forward is that any society where most of the power and money becomes concentrated to a small group of people, becomes unstable and starts to disintegrate.

This has nothing at all to do with socialism. This phenomenon can occur in any type of society, from feudal France and Russia with their revolutions to capitalist Egypt and the other Arab countries where its happening right now.

Besides, how much development would we have if everybody always agreed?
  • #12,444
  • May 27, 2011 8:43am May 27, 2011 8:43am
Quoting clockwork71
Odd......I just watched the latest one. What browser are you using if you don't mind me asking?
Just internet explorer 7. Do you post on youtube or anything else, I would like to catch up on your stuff? If not, no worries. Thanks man!
  • #12,445
  • May 27, 2011 12:01pm May 27, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting drebin
Just internet explorer 7. Do you post on youtube or anything else, I would like to catch up on your stuff? If not, no worries. Thanks man!
I don't know what the deal is....I tried it on IE7, and it worked. Odd.....maybe there is a plugin you are missing?

I used to put videos on YouTube, but a certain passive-aggressive princess, (J16) decided to flag the content as copyrighted. Youtube will block first, ask questions later. He is going to shit himself when he sees the new site I am sure. Nice of him to worry about Mr. Pring like that!
  • #12,446
  • May 27, 2011 12:08pm May 27, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
I'm not sure about eurchf, I tend not to trade it after the Swiss central bank messed me up a few times, but usdchf has been blazing a trail hasn't it? Reading your method through it makes 0.8550 very interesting to watch. I suppose a break of that means fresh all time lows but how much further can it go?
It can go much farther than you think. We never know when it will stop, but I remember thinking the AUD/USD at 0.80 was bullshit. Well.....you can see how much that 16 year high meant - it was a simple stopping point to 1.10 or even beyond.

Quote
In terms of eurusd I've been trading with 3 moving averages for trend direction and a much smaller MA combined with heiken ashi for entries on bounces from the 3 trendlines provided they are running fairly smoothly and eurusd last night fit the bill.

I have been using round numbers for support and resistance and a bit of fibonacci thrown in but I think incorporating your method of determining the strongest levels of S and R on a weekly chart and then using the daily to look for trend continuation patterns as I have been but also trend reversals...
It is quite often one of two things: Higher time frame S/R, and news related events. News events can't be prepared for most times, S/R can. This is why I focus on it so much.

Quote
One question I have is should I be concentrating on finding exact levels to draw a line at an exact round number or is the general area more important and if so how wide is too wide?
The general area is what you are looking for. For example, I have 1.05 as a support area in the AUD/USD. If price hits 1.0481, that doesn't mean anything, it is the daily (or 4 hour) close that is more important.

As far as "too wide", it doesn't exist. Take a look at the EUR/USD recently. There was an area form 1.40 to 1.42 that formed support and resistance. While it is technically true that 1.42 was resistance, and 1.40 was support, I choose to look at that area as one thick line. 200 pips seems wide, but on the weekly chart, it isn't really....
  • #12,447
  • May 27, 2011 12:11pm May 27, 2011 12:11pm
Taking a look at the NZD/USD, you can see we are at all-time highs again. I know many will be tempted to short, but the truth is that you need some kind of price action to support doing that. I currently see a move to 1.20 in the AUD/USD being very possible, and this pair tends to follow that. We might get a pullback in the Kiwi - but this move have been brutal, and going against it is for people much braver than I.
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  • #12,448
  • May 27, 2011 1:59pm May 27, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting clockwork71
It can go much farther than you think. We never know when it will stop, but I remember thinking the AUD/USD at 0.80 was bullshit. Well.....you can see how much that 16 year high meant - it was a simple stopping point to 1.10 or even beyond.

It is quite often one of two things: Higher time frame S/R, and news related events. News events can't be prepared for most times, S/R can. This is why I focus on it so much.

[i][b]The general area is what you are looking for. For example, I have 1.05 as a support area in the AUD/USD....
Thanks for the comprehensive answer, that clears it all up. I've just got to get my charts altered a little and I should be good to go.

In terms of NZD and AUD aren't they both driven by commodities which have been surging ahead recently but also interest rate differences?

I agree with your thoughts completely, AUD still has the highest interest rate around and combined with a commodities boom as the major economies of the world grind their way slowly out of recession has to push AUD pairs higher.
  • #12,449
  • May 27, 2011 4:16pm May 27, 2011 4:16pm
eurusd made a 180 pip move up today but it's hard to call Monday's move because it could well pull back after such a big move up. I'm always inclined to follow heiken ashi and let it tell me when it's time to leave like a sober nun at a senior girls school disco. Aud and Gbp are both heading north as well so maybe Eur will follow?

I hope you all have a good weekend and I'll see you Monday.
  • #12,450
  • May 28, 2011 8:04am May 28, 2011 8:04am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Thanks for the comprehensive answer, that clears it all up. I've just got to get my charts altered a little and I should be good to go.

In terms of NZD and AUD aren't they both driven by commodities which have been surging ahead recently but also interest rate differences?

I agree with your thoughts completely, AUD still has the highest interest rate around and combined with a commodities boom as the major economies of the world grind their way slowly out of recession has to push AUD pairs higher.

I can't say for sure, but I think the AUD will often have the advantage of being a more heavily traded currency in general. AUD/USD is much more liquid than NZD/USD, therefore - more people are buying the Aussie. (That's one thought at least.) And since theya re buying more AUD/USD, it natural favors the AUD against the less traded NZD. Also, there is that6 bit about the economic impact of the NZD fromt he major earthquake they just had. Of course, as always - follow the charts, the rest doesn't actually matter in the end.
  • #12,451
  • May 28, 2011 8:06am May 28, 2011 8:06am
Quoting Hugh Briss
eurusd made a 180 pip move up today but it's hard to call Monday's move because it could well pull back after such a big move up. I'm always inclined to follow heiken ashi and let it tell me when it's time to leave like a sober nun at a senior girls school disco. Aud and Gbp are both heading north as well so maybe Eur will follow?

I hope you all have a good weekend and I'll see you Monday.
Monday's session will be interesting. The US will be closed as it is Memorial Day, which is a time when everyone goes on a three day drinking binge, and can't be bothered trading. Because of this - we probably won't see a real move until Tuesday. European trading might be alright, but the US time frame will be absolutely dead quiet.
  • #12,452
  • May 28, 2011 9:38am May 28, 2011 9:38am
Quoting clockwork71
Monday's session will be interesting. The US will be closed as it is Memorial Day, which is a time when everyone goes on a three day drinking binge, and can't be bothered trading. Because of this - we probably won't see a real move until Tuesday. European trading might be alright, but the US time frame will be absolutely dead quiet.
Good point, it's a bank holiday here too.
  • #12,453
  • May 29, 2011 5:05pm May 29, 2011 5:05pm
New article and video posted at the blog....
  • #12,454
  • May 31, 2011 3:40am May 31, 2011 3:40am
Well I've taken some nice entries yesterday using the strong round numbers. I'm now long eurusd +250 (from the other day), long eurjpy +200 and just taken a long eurgbp after it broke the trendline. The big two are at break even and I'll be keeping an eye on eurgbp to go to break even just after 50 pips up as it doesn't move that much.

I'm also short usdsgd on a trendline break which is going ok.

Usdchf seems to be going sideways for a little while, could be to do with the psychology of hitting all time lows? I reckon if it does break lower it will go for another few hundred pips at least.

I'm also watching usdcad for a possible short there, seems like it could be turning?

What does anyone think?
  • #12,455
  • May 31, 2011 8:05am May 31, 2011 8:05am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Well I've taken some nice entries yesterday using the strong round numbers. I'm now long eurusd +250 (from the other day), long eurjpy +200 and just taken a long eurgbp after it broke the trendline. The big two are at break even and I'll be keeping an eye on eurgbp to go to break even just after 50 pips up as it doesn't move that much.

I'm also short usdsgd on a trendline break which is going ok.

Usdchf seems to be going sideways for a little while, could be to do with the psychology of hitting all time lows? I reckon if it does break lower...
Congrats on the trades.....

0.97 is the key in USD/CAD.....and it seems to be giving way.....

Higher oil prices certainly help with that as well!
  • #12,456
  • May 31, 2011 8:49am May 31, 2011 8:49am
Quoting clockwork71
Congrats on the trades.....

0.97 is the key in USD/CAD.....and it seems to be giving way.....

Higher oil prices certainly help with that as well!
Thanks, I'm hoping I can learn to let things run for a while. Just how do you relax when there's money at stake?

High oil is strong for CAD isn't it? I think I'll watch for a retest of 0.97 from below and then see.
  • #12,457
  • May 31, 2011 10:31am May 31, 2011 10:31am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Thanks, I'm hoping I can learn to let things run for a while. Just how do you relax when there's money at stake?

High oil is strong for CAD isn't it? I think I'll watch for a retest of 0.97 from below and then see.
I can let things go when it comes to money because I learned that money isn't that important. I know that sounds cliche, but it really is true. I had a couple of months that were really up and down for me as a person, and it changed my thinking completely.

I had a SVT attack......which at the time I thought it was a heart attack. (I had a USD/CAD position on, and can assure you it was the last thing I thought about.)

A month or so later, I had my second son.

8 days after that, my mother died.

During this entire process, I couldn't have cared less about the financial markets. I can assure you were you are falling to the floor with your heart racing in an erratic fashion, thinking that "well, this is it." - you don't give a damn about the currency markets. When you think you are dying, it is amazing the clarity it gives you. It really puts into perspective how unimportant trading really is. As well as money.

You are trying to gain in your account to get money. But why are you trying so hard to make money? Is it the paper that has all the artwork on it? No - it is the freedom that money can bring.

If you try to live as a truly free person, the money is secondary.....

Besides, I love trading - and would do it for free.

Chris

PS - You are correct, oil is good for the CAD. (in general)
  • #12,458
  • May 31, 2011 11:45am May 31, 2011 11:45am
Quoting clockwork71
I can let things go when it comes to money because I learned that money isn't that important. I know that sounds cliche, but it really is true. I had a couple of months that were really up and down for me as a person, and it changed my thinking completely.

I had a SVT attack......which at the time I thought it was a heart attack. (I had a USD/CAD position on, and can assure you it was the last thing I thought about.)

A month or so later, I had my second son.

8 days after that, my mother died.

During this entire process, I couldn't have...
Yes I guess that puts it into perspective. Glad you're ok now.
  • #12,459
  • May 31, 2011 9:15pm May 31, 2011 9:15pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Yes I guess that puts it into perspective. Glad you're ok now.
Thanks mate.
  • #12,460
  • May 31, 2011 9:16pm May 31, 2011 9:16pm
This chart is certainly looking more and more interesting......
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