USDCAD trend reversal?

Good cop bad cop routine in Europe continues.
For those who think the only outcome for Europe is a pending upheaval in Europe's debt markets, with global ramifications, the time to act may be now.
At some point losses have to be cut in Europe and those countries unable to self support will have the lifeline pulled.
Asia is a possible short as trees are not known to grow to the sky no matter how deep the fertilizer. Upheaval in Europe a major destination for Asia product a distinct outcome. Will affect demand.
Kiwi/USD is at significant resistance as this is written, Reserve currency reallocation, (running out of places to put them, showing up in NZD of all places) will be challenged by any ensuing commodity demand weakness.

Weakness in Cad retail this morning, now Canada is entering the same situation as the US. Until we see really serious direction down in equities, USD/CAD is stuck in range.

Have been short EURO/CAD as a safe haven move. Similar to the big overnight move in EURO/CHF Selling in this pair which has been range bound will keep the lid on upwards trajectory of USD/CAD
Will see what happens to USD Index as day moves forward and markets thin out for the weekend. No prognostications on that.

have a nice weekend.

Kiwi buckled as the last post was being made.

no update for this week because the last analysis is still valid.

Debt markets are facing the sovereign default scenario and now have to deal with what appears to be inevitable.
The question arises as to how this will play out. For from that concept a trading plan could be constructed.

Although the risk of catastrophic implosion is always a possibility the higher probability will be that the needs of the greater society will prevail. We are no longer in a free market economy but one that is tightly controlled by central governments. Government will do all within its' power to prevent social chaos for the greater population.

Am believing that should be the concept that guides choosing tradeable pairs. The US economy is hardly in a position of strength to pick up the slack from a bust descending upon Europe or Asia. Future vision would suggest a fragmentation of globalization and a return to another time of regional power centers.

Thus since todays headliner is about Europe, remaining short Euro/USD as well as Euro/ Cad will be the choice. USD/CAD has a bias to the upside, but the day is not over and you can bet assured there will be heavy intervention to stabilize the currency market.

With LaGarde basically in at the IMF and Draghi in at the helm of the ECB in the near future, the political decisions about the fate of the Euro is at
hand.

Politicians will pick inflation over deflation and will counter deflationary forces with money printing. They really have no choice otherwise.

But the devaluation of the Euro via a lower price has the highest probability in this persons opinion. This will have direct impact upon other pair valuations.

But since there is no way to evaluate which course of action will win out over time, deflationary default or inflationary default, by placing a trade for each circumstance, both sides of the fence can be played. Whichever way plays out.

loaded more shorts at round number 0.9800

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NtYkzV6ciL...ber+0.9800.png

Is USD/CAD going to end this hour with falling star? good sign for bears

Update: It did. Hope this helps for my shorts

Tonight I be full of bull (the ex would wholeheartedly agree).

FOTO, there certainly appears suggestion of global fragmentation.

The ants are rebelling but it appears that ants in MENA,PIIGS & N. America have
differing agendas that may account for the change in trade patterns.

WRT U/CAD; tekkieways, we have $ > prev supp Mar 6 & wkly open Mar 13.

Wkly STO is up.
Wkly 9874 is prev supp.

$ > 62% fib ( Mar 16- May 1)

ema's are up,STO up on Dly.

$ broke down TL ( Mar 15-May 17).

Retrace to 9700 (mayhaps - since you got the SNB yodelling intervention once more) Means the cheese for my poutine will cost more if intervention isn't followed through.

On the COT front- USDX has the comms selling.

I got my buys ( but keeping my stick on the ice).

Vancouver or San Jose? ( said the winner would grab Stanley by his handles) DUCE, Cdawg Personally, wouldn't be disappointed with Boston (only cuz original six- but sentimental rarely makes $$$$).

Yeh Scarecru,,
We keep hearing about a one world currency coming into being.
If the Euro is the experimental model, for the one ring to rule them all people,
one currency to rule them all is a fantasy.

I think instead we will go back to the pre WW2 era of sovereign currencies, and regional power brokers.

The high cost of energy will isolate trading centers as shipping costs must rise as well.

The age of competitive currency devaluations and the breaking down of international commerce is at hand. The economic winter season is beginning.

With so much debt and no, wherewith all to pay it, isolationism will be the outcome. The globalist are singing an out of date tune.

Hard to see a continuation of what has been going on any longer. Predatory commerce is destabilizing the world of international business and all the welfare states need tax revenues to pay for the promises. Globalization is not providing for the common citizen, so it will be left to die, as a politically obsolete idea.

The beginnings are the recent elections in Germany and Spain and Portugal, Iceland, Ireland etc. Surely there will be more to come.

FOTO: Too true my friend. Hope for the phoenix to arise.

Been buying CHF (sell X's).

WRT U/CAD: down TL ( Mar 15-May 23) has 9802 as next R & if violated 9916 is Dly 200 ema.

My targets & keep yer stick on the ice.

Ah, my home town team surprised me I thought for sure the sharks would take my canucks.. Now hoping for a Nucks Bruins final!

Anyway, gold rising, seems oil has come back today.. yet no real strength yet shown in the loonie. Been shorting off 0.9800 for some minimal gains, hoping for a break south.

Looking at the daily, I say there is a possibility of a run north still, as it hasn't peaked just yet.

980x close > gives 9864 prev supp target. Or retrace to 9725 bottom of up channel on Dly.

Indies still say up & G/Cad E/Cad Beaver are up ( Cad weak). Might be why oil gold don't reflect on loonie

Dawg: going out on a limb here. 'Nucks in 4 or 5 (maybe 6 or 7).
If the V's get Stanley, mayhaps a grocery chain in the GTA will change the name by adding a "U"

Usd/Cad This pair is still on uptrend, but previous days failure of breaking above 0.9820 is making it retreat to the downside, retracement is at 0.9740/50, below would change our upward view to target low at 0.9670/80 must hold while contiuation on the upward channel is to 0.9840

Big RSI divergence at these peaks, I'm looking to short for 100+ pips

Bear flag in DOWNTREND.

Wkly indies up but Dly STO o/b & RSI curling down.

9807 target (Mar 15- May 26 down TL)
9823 target ( Jan 31-May 1) 62% fib.
Loonie still weak versus other currencies ( lots of pips selling Cad/Chf, etc)

My Bias: U/Cad to buy (9736 bottom of up channel if violated, then look for small short scalps.)

FOTO: E/Chf on 15M @ 4:15 pm today.What a ride!

Any thoughts wrt fundamentals as to why the swissy getting so strong ( & is this a possible set-up to SNB intervention)?

Kiwi, Oz getting strong. Cad weakening. Too many changes away from the normal pattern, making me antsy.

Kiwi looks safest wrt US$ this week.

Have a wonderful weekend my friend.

Morning Scarecru,

The CHF is not getting strong on economic strengths. It is a flight to safety.
People with wealth to preserve are bailing on the Euro for a safe harbor.
Banking crisis is the song being sung. It is just not headline news yet.

The last ditch effort to support the Euro is underway. Any rallies in the Euro and the cavalier dumping of USD in Asia are examples of a USD selling
climax.

The inflexible currency regime imposed by the Euro on all member states is clearly not working.

Bernanke cannot keep devaluing the USD any longer because the real economy cannot stand any more price shocks created by FED induced devaluation. Obama wants desperately to get re-elected, exactly what is he to run on, higher energy, higher food costs, no jobs creation.

The Feds policies are backfiring, the cost of bailing out the financial sector is generating real pain in the real world.

Is America supposed to accept the message of living a life in quiet desperation.

Or is America going to to say in the words of Dylan Thomas
"Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rage at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light......."

My take, America will call the welfare state and toss it out on its ass.

These are Macro ideas and I am not a day trader. Some people trade daily volatility, that is fine if it works for that individual.

But on the longer term charts it looks as if the USD has put in a bottom.
Never a guarantee on anything, we trade our ideas and if they prove out we get more, and if not then we get less.

it's good trendlines bro,,
bear is back,

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/image43.png

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/image44.png

saying clc4x but if you look at the daily and 4hr which I'm sure you have and a break of support like the traders chart above i too would be looking for lower prices let see after tuesdays close of play

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