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Thinking Outside the Box!?!

  • #301
  • May 26, 2011 9:16am May 26, 2011 9:16am
Quoting Monroe
Yes it can work, the rules are the important part... threads like James16 s/r PA for example can work, they try and make it simple, though it requires time and discipline. When I look at it, I know it involves lots of stuff that are in the rules which don't require you to have a phD understanding of on a deep level, but they are there for a reason. Time of day, and other market structure/micro-structure stuff is in there...

though, I would argue it is not mechanical 100%, it certainly requires discretion, I don't believe there is a system 100%...
Agreed not 100% but with common sense and hours and hours of screentime it becomes second nature.

Also I find having a solid set of rules will aid learning because you can reverse engineer the failures and impliment new rules thus improving the method.
  • #302
  • May 26, 2011 9:21am May 26, 2011 9:21am
Quoting jag1966
Agreed not 100% but with common sense and hours and hours of screentime it becomes second nature.

Also I find having a solid set of rules will aid learning because you can reverse engineer the failures and impliment new rules thus improving the method.
yup... I agree. You need the time and effort, some people a lot more then others, but either way, it doesn't come easy. After awhile you will know what you're looking for, however you decide to trade.
  • #303
  • May 26, 2011 9:23am May 26, 2011 9:23am
Quoting jag1966
Agreed not 100% but with common sense and hours and hours of screentime it becomes second nature.

Also I find having a solid set of rules will aid learning because you can reverse engineer the failures and impliment new rules thus improving the method.
I forgot to add that we have no fundis, indis, etc to worry about, pure price action and even that isn't looked at in the traditional sense, hammers, beebs, etc. A bunch of candles are just dealer / market sentiment to me now.
  • #304
  • May 26, 2011 9:35am May 26, 2011 9:35am
jag : what would i say if someone gave me a system like that? i would say "huh? now what?". there are plenty of systems out there, and some surely are making a few coins here and there. i don't want a system. i want an UNDERSTANDING. i don't want to be told to turn left then right then go straight for 2 blocks and stop... i want to know how to read a map and understand the terrain.

teach a man to fish etc.

there's a lot of stuff out there that simply doesn't cover the WHY. why a system is different from others and makes more sense than others and really is profitable forever to come unlike others. there is never a why. always a 'do this', but never a 'why this is going to work'.

monroe : the whole james16 thing pisses me off. it all seems like it's just one big curve-fit to higher timeframes that will take longer to play-out and finally fall over. it's been ages since i looked at the material, and i purely avoid it all nowadays. from everything i read (even, and especially, on the paid forum. yes i went there for a month) i could never find a WHY factor, and believe me i looked. WHY does this work, or not work. plus there are other members who are creating other systems as well, and again there is never a WHY. the original system plus new systems and unless i just have a massive blind-spot in my searching i never ever saw a why.

if there is no why, then as far as i'm concerned it's destined to simply fail at some point. it's all just curve-fitting and playing the end of market anomalies.

again this could all just be me not SEEING something that others are taking for granted as being obvious. but really, if the system is based on taking or not taking pinbars on 4hr charts then i will forever count myself out of bothering with it, as should everyone else as far as i am concerned. all it takes is for a chart to be out by 1,2, or 3 hours and i'm never going to see the same 'signals' as anyone else, and all of my signals i see are therefore all signals others would never see and trades not taken.... therefore, it's all bullshit and has no rhyme or reason.

just stating it as i see it. i'm sure people have made money on it, but it just has no why factor and makes no sense. plus, others have trailed the whole 'scam' perspective and quite frankly they do make some very sensible arguments despite the defenders.

now just to spin this on a different tangent, the j16 paid forum does have a lot of non-trading specific content when i was there and was probably worth the one months fee if you consider it to be a couple of books worth of similar material that you could buy at a bookstore... but that said, i'll never rejoin.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #305
  • May 26, 2011 9:42am May 26, 2011 9:42am
This thread has evolved several times and continues to provide some interesting reading. Really enjoy some of the comments and posts.

Here is a take on my trading. I have a box for trend trading, a box for trading trend changes, and a box for range trading. Each box is different in terms of TA/indicator content, but all three are designed to fit my mental makeup and character. They each contain a set of guidelines that determine if I make the trade or not (trade set-up stuff). I'm pretty sure that if I gave each box to other traders, they would generally fail to implement the set-ups, not because of intellectual reasons, but more due to lack of character make up. It's my experience that people who fail at trading are not stupid, they lack the character and mental make-up to be a trader. I went short the E/$ because my trade set up told me to short, and because I had the character to stick with the market until it met the contents of my trend change box, and becasue I have the guts and commitment to enter the trade and stick with it until it met my 35 pip limit. I don't have to worry about the next trade, because my trade set-up has already determined that for me. So now I just sit and wait.

I am interested in hearing about what others have inside their box and what they consider what is outside their box, and if they have any idea why they view things the way the view them. Just an idea...and good trading to everyone.
  • #306
  • May 26, 2011 9:49am May 26, 2011 9:49am
Quoting nubcake
jag : what would i say if someone gave me a system like that?...
if you want just general guidelines and no rules, then maybe look into al brook's work. He is a terrible writer, but he explains reasons why certain pa works and it kind of makes sense. His biggest reason is that the market always tries to trap most people on a constant basis.
  • #307
  • May 26, 2011 9:57am May 26, 2011 9:57am
Quoting nubcake
There is never a why. always a 'do this', but never a 'why this is going to work'.
^^^ THIS.

I can come up with countless 'ideas' and "how to's" to build so called systems, but in the end one will never know when it breaks simply because they dont know the why behind the functioning of the system itself.

This IMHO, the question of "WHY does it work" is the foundation to a succesful trading career.

Understanding. Just as you put it. 100% with you on this.

As for pin bars....well.... is the cup half empty or half full? Just like S/R we can find just as many that work as those that dont.

I think its all these 'things' that takes someone to approach the markets in a more systematic manner.

Its like placing a random line and trading it. It gives (costs aside) a 50/50 outcome. One can then say, "let your winners run"...

Why? Because it will compensate for your losses.

ok....so Why does it lose? Ah! thats because if you look left you will see support and you traded into it!

ok....so Why did my PREVIOUS trade work when i traded OF support?
ah! thats because fundies didnt favor that direction.

ok...so what about the third trade where fundies aligned, i traded of support, i had a pin bar, and the moon aligned with jupiter?
ah! that one failed, because you simply cant win the all!

and so on and so on....
  • #308
  • May 26, 2011 9:58am May 26, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Custos
if you want just general guidelines and no rules, then maybe look into al brook's work. He is a terrible writer, but he explains reasons why certain pa works and it kind of makes sense. His biggest reason is that the market always tries to trap most people on a constant basis.
cool ta.

googling now. i just hope it's not too simplistic as that road is well-troden (like T/A) :/
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #309
  • May 26, 2011 10:02am May 26, 2011 10:02am
Quoting nubcake
jag : what would i say if someone gave me a system like that?...

Hey nubcake, I hear you, but I'm not sure that's correct, however I don't use the J16 method. I have read into it, and if learned correctly, I think it's profitable... PA trading can work. It's not about taking pinbars, it involves a lot of other rules to be in place.
  • #310
  • May 26, 2011 10:03am May 26, 2011 10:03am
Quoting nubcake
cool ta.

googling now. i just hope it's not too simplistic as that road is well-troden (like T/A) :/
yeah, his stuff is not simplistic at all. Hope it helps you.
  • #311
  • May 26, 2011 10:10am May 26, 2011 10:10am
Quoting Pipalicious
^^^ THIS.

I can come up with countless 'ideas' and "how to's" to build so called systems, but in the end one will never know when it breaks simply because they dont know the why behind the functioning of the system itself.

This IMHO, the question of "WHY does it work" is the foundation to a succesful trading career.

Understanding. Just as you put it. 100% with you on this.

As for pin bars....well.... is the cup half empty or half full? Just like S/R we can find just as many that work as those that dont.

I think its all these 'things'...
^this too, lol.

really, i think you are on the same road as i am. did you see that hooker a few blocks back? i bet you are an intj, too.

even further to previous posts, some say we trade our beliefs, yet others say we don't trade our beliefs we trade the markets!

it's contradiction city. a s/r holds, or doesn't. a trendline holds, or doesn't. momentum continues, or doesn't. a range holds, or doesn't. a trend trends, or doesn't. let your winners run and cut your losses, but don't get stopped-out and make sure you take profit. we trade our beliefs, or we don't trade our beliefs.

give me a break.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #312
  • May 26, 2011 10:19am May 26, 2011 10:19am
Quoting Monroe
Hey nubcake, I hear you, but I'm not sure that's correct, however I don't use the J16 method. I have read into it, and if learned correctly, I think it's profitable... PA trading can work. It's not about taking pinbars, it involves a lot of other rules to be in place.
true true, i'm keeping it simplified because, quite simply, there are always more and more rules. but the overall message i stand by. plus, if it really is just PA trading then there literally is no reason why they should almost enforce not trading below 4hr or daily or whatever high timeframe they basically demand of people. i never found the why of it's supposed power or profitability. only rules.

i did find all the why's of why it DIDN'T make sense for me...
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #313
  • May 26, 2011 10:24am May 26, 2011 10:24am
Quoting GEfx
This thread has evolved several times and continues to provide some interesting reading. Really enjoy some of the comments and posts.

Here is a take on my trading. I have a box for trend trading, a box for trading trend changes, and a box for range trading. Each box is different in terms of TA/indicator content, but all three are designed to fit my mental makeup and character. They each contain a set of guidelines that determine if I make the trade or not (trade set-up stuff). I'm pretty sure that if I gave each box to other traders, they would...
I have a journal where I post some of my trades and provide a little analysis of what I am doing. I have several trading friends that visit my journal, and they have journals that I visit from time to time. There is nothing surprising about the tools and techniques that I use, but the way they are used differs from my trading friends. We are all traders, so the real differences among the journals is how we implement.
  • #314
  • May 26, 2011 10:29am May 26, 2011 10:29am
Quoting nubcake
^this too, lol.

really, i think you are on the same road as i am....
exactly, the market always tends to be random at times when we want it to behave orderly. I think some people are doing an amazing job trading intraday and come out ahead. But I personally believe that you are having a better chance of succeeding when you go to the higher time-frames and can base your trades not only on technical setups but also on fundamental setups. You just have more odds on your sides, which a pure technical trader doesn't have. For example trading the usd/chf down has been a no-brainer, cause of the risk-averse attitudes of investors and unstable situation in the USA with their debt. As well trading aud/usd up has also been a no-brainer, cause of the rising commodity prices, china still growing and high interest rates in aud (carry trade).
For me this is thinking outside the box, cause you have this added faith that your trades will work out and you become much more selective which pairs you enter in.
  • #315
  • Edited 11:03am May 26, 2011 10:30am | Edited 11:03am
(Dang, maybe I should join the crowd....)
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  • #316
  • May 26, 2011 10:49am May 26, 2011 10:49am
Quoting Custos
exactly, the market always tends to be random at times when we want it to behave orderly. I think some people are doing an amazing job trading intraday and come out ahead. But I personally believe that you are having a better chance of succeeding when you go to the higher time-frames and can base your trades not only on technical setups but also on fundamental setups. You just have more odds on your sides, which a pure technical trader doesn't have. For example trading the usd/chf down has been a no-brainer, cause of the risk-averse attitudes of...
all fair. the problem is that stepping back and slowing down into higher timeframes immediately slows down trade frequency.

it's a double-edged sword. there might be the 'no-brainer' trades for someone experienced in higher timeframes, however, the lower timeframes give so much feedback that you know at the end of the day if you are in the money or are just posing. plus, i've never heard of (or noticed) a higher timeframe trader doubling an account. it goes back to the other thread discussions about people being amazed at 30% returns in a year, for example.

it's just one more spin on risk vs reward. fast timeframes you are risking not doing what everyone else seems to be doing for some degree of profits and going for the reward of knowing through frequency if you are doing something right and compounding like mad. slow timeframes you are risking not making a killing each and every day and not getting constant feedback through frequency and are going for the reward of maybe making some money and hopefully being on a profitable method.

my line in the sand for me is clear. if i can't trade intraday then i can't trade. i will risk being in the hardest bracket of the hardest game on earth for the reward of maybe making an absolute killing and living the lifestyle i would like to have. for all of the stuff in trading that doesn't make any sense to me, this is the one thing that is basically as clear as day to me. i know it's not how everyone else sees it, and to each their own and you gotta do what you gotta do.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #317
  • Edited May 27, 2011 3:02am May 26, 2011 1:22pm | Edited May 27, 2011 3:02am
Quoting nubcake
jag : what would i say if someone gave me a system like that? i would say "huh? now what?". there are plenty of systems out there, and some surely are making a few coins here and there. i don't want a system. i want an UNDERSTANDING. i don't want to be told to turn left then right then go straight for 2 blocks and stop... i want to know how to read a map and understand the terrain.

teach a man to fish etc.

there's a lot of stuff out there that simply doesn't cover the WHY. why a system is different from others and makes more sense than others...
I think the answer is that, not all systems are equal, not all SR levels are equal and not all trends are equal. You have to work out which ones work with the highest probability. It takes ages to do and a singleminded determination to crack it.

My "out of the box" additions to the thread have been hinted at before, I do not look at orderflow in the traditional way and possibly I view what a trend is and market profile is in a different way to others too. I already said my understanding of candles is not as just plain traditional candles too.

Some of the market profile stuff I studied mentioned fair value and balance points. IMHO today they were testing 1.4200 for fair value it was an old support broken that needed testing to see if it would hold as res. It held.

Then when sup 1.4135 got broken that also needed to be tested to see it it would hold as res.

I trade retests of fair value areas at every possible opp. In fact that is all I do trade, tests of SR on every timeframe.

A picture will hopefully make things clearer.
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  • #318
  • May 26, 2011 7:10pm May 26, 2011 7:10pm
I am very interested in your system based on something absurd like which way a donkey sleeps at night. It is for sale?

TIA

Pepe
  • #319
  • May 26, 2011 7:52pm May 26, 2011 7:52pm
Quoting privatefr
I am very interested in your system based on something absurd like which way a donkey sleeps at night. It is for sale?
Well some people already trade with absurd stuff like astrology, sacred geometry, the so called "golden ratio", and the square of the magical numbers of the astral sign of the moon. Trading which way a donkey sleeps at night is barely outside the box.
  • #320
  • May 26, 2011 9:54pm May 26, 2011 9:54pm
Quoting Marv
To elaborate a bit more on this, I don't care if something is deemed "inside the box" or "outside the box" (the subjectivity of such terms is already evidenced by the variety of interpretations in this thread)....
Well that's fine but this thread is about thinking outside the box. So wouldn't it be natural for someone to say that news is an "inside the box' subject? This isn't to say it's wrong to look at the news but to say you can gleem 100% insight 100% of the time from reading the news is hardly factual. (not that you said 100% but using that figure as a demostration to show news does nothing other than stir the pot. You can disagree if you want with that.)

Quoting Marv
I just happened to find that most of the useless approaches are the most popular out here, and most of the actually useful mindsets are barely ever discussed, which makes it "outside the box", I guess?
I believe I already gave the definition of what "outside the box" is. Not saying it might mean something different to you.


Quoting Marv
As I said, it's an information game and, in my humble view, stepping outside the box = Doing the best you can to position yourself in the real realtime of information flow. By "information" I'm not simply talking about the news or quotes or charts, but the realtime invisible money-flow and realtime motives behind all of that, not some after-the-fact manifestation. To explain even further, "realtime" is not a recent move on your chart or the current bid/ask quote, it's where the big orders are currently placed and/or about to be...
post 202

You ever hear the talking heads say oh the dollar rose today because blah, blah, blah. Or the dollar sank today because blah, blah, blah.

The blah, blah, blah could be the same thing.

NFP job numbers rose more than expected today, but the dollar fell. This is my point. News is news... which is how the phrase "Buy the rumor, sell the fact" came about... OR maybe that's the other way around.
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