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  • #20,461
  • May 26, 2011 9:14am May 26, 2011 9:14am
Quoting Baniu
So it seems they have used news to take short positions, weakness seen earlier today was finally confirmed.

News were bad for USD, yet rise on eurusd was very short. From the standpoint of fundamental analysis this drop doesn't make sense but for SM it makes sense perfectly

I'm waiting for tests NDs on 15.
It depends on how you look at fundamentals.

From a sentiment perspective (that I've been posting) it makes absolute sense read my recent posts
  • #20,462
  • May 26, 2011 9:16am May 26, 2011 9:16am
Quoting Baniu
on 15.
And maybe even 30m to an hour
  • #20,463
  • May 26, 2011 9:18am May 26, 2011 9:18am
Quoting Tea_trader
Its a pain as the stoploss placement of 'old highs' normally goes out the window.
No it doesn't, use smaller position size
  • #20,464
  • May 26, 2011 9:22am May 26, 2011 9:22am
frank ive been watching the blue supply/demand boxes you post ans they seem to be quite accurate...how again do you determine your blue boxe areas???best regards, john...good work btw
  • #20,465
  • May 26, 2011 9:22am May 26, 2011 9:22am
Quoting frankkn
No it doesn't, use smaller position size
Obviously but look we have moved 60 pips. my risk to reward ratio of 1:3 is in the shitter even with a smaller position sizes!

P.s. i hate shorting after a very fast move down, im wary that it could be climatic!
  • #20,466
  • May 26, 2011 9:30am May 26, 2011 9:30am
Quoting Tea_trader
Obviously but look we have moved 60 pips. my risk to reward ratio of 1:3 is in the shitter even with a smaller position sizes!

P.s. i hate shorting after a very fast move down, im wary that it could be climatic!
Why is it in the shitter
  • #20,467
  • May 26, 2011 9:33am May 26, 2011 9:33am
Quoting Trader_X
frank ive been watching the blue supply/demand boxes you post ans they seem to be quite accurate...how again do you determine your blue boxe areas???best regards, john...good work btw
Google Sam Seiden, he has excellent webinars on FX street. Also check out price is everything thread.

A rally that is stopped, bases briefly, and then drops far and fast is a supply zone. I use the bottom of the bodies (in the base) and the high of the wicks, in the case of supply.

I prefer the 1h and 30m time frames but it is also important to watch weekly and daily ones as well. This down trend started almost to the pip from the monthly, I have that posted somewhere
  • #20,468
  • May 26, 2011 9:35am May 26, 2011 9:35am
Potential short forming on gu, the caption in the chart should read sign of weakness not (sos). Sorry for the mistake.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guuuuuu.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #20,469
  • May 26, 2011 9:39am May 26, 2011 9:39am
Quoting frankkn
I agree 68 pips no retrace. I would like to look to enter on a 15m no demand, as opposed to a 5m one (if the move wasn't so strong)

Here is how I prefer to use boxes, this is the supply I've been waiting for
Hi frankn, could you pls tell me how you draw your boxes? The lower one doesn't seem to have been drawn from an area of high volume...

thanx Les
  • #20,470
  • May 26, 2011 9:39am May 26, 2011 9:39am
Quoting frankkn
Last year I used a spreadsheet to try to make a risk appetite index for intraday sentiment. It was super simple, and if you go to yahoo finance you can see % change for: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, 10 year bonds (interest rate), oil, and gold.

I lumped the first 3 into the category of US equities and assigned each a value of 1, and the rest a value of 3....
Not criticism yet, just interested.

Thanks for sharing.
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #20,471
  • May 26, 2011 9:41am May 26, 2011 9:41am
Quoting Les_Paul
Hi frankn, could you pls tell me how you draw your boxes? The lower one doesn't seem to have been drawn from an area of high volume...

thanx Les
sorry, I didn't notice that you had already answered to Trader_X...

Les
  • #20,472
  • May 26, 2011 9:41am May 26, 2011 9:41am
Quoting Les_Paul
Hi frankn, could you pls tell me how you draw your boxes? The lower one doesn't seem to have been drawn from an area of high volume...

thanx Les
It's not about volume but price. It is a supply zone.

I forgot that I made a youtube page to answer these questions lol look at my sig

Edit: specifically supply and demand pt 2
  • #20,473
  • May 26, 2011 9:42am May 26, 2011 9:42am
Quoting frankkn
Google Sam Seiden, he has excellent webinars on FX street. Also check out price is everything thread

Thanks!
  • #20,474
  • May 26, 2011 9:42am May 26, 2011 9:42am
ok ill read those frank...thanks again...regards,john
  • #20,475
  • May 26, 2011 9:43am May 26, 2011 9:43am
For every informative post in this thread there is 10 questions. I think that is why we have lost it in here. Nothing wrong with trying to learn but its evident that a large number have not read Master the Markets or studied previous posts.
  • #20,476
  • May 26, 2011 9:47am May 26, 2011 9:47am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Potential short forming on gu, the caption in the chart should read sign of weakness not (sos). Sorry for the mistake.
Thanks for pointing that out. I've been too focused watching the damn Euro drop without me.

Last 15m bar looks like a cute little hidden UT
  • #20,477
  • May 26, 2011 9:51am May 26, 2011 9:51am
Selling climax already?? Interesting
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #20,478
  • May 26, 2011 9:54am May 26, 2011 9:54am
Quoting BeLikeWater
Selling climax already?? Interesting
Hopefully some bulls at 4083, maybe will give a retrace that will end in a nice 30m no demand
  • #20,479
  • May 26, 2011 10:00am May 26, 2011 10:00am
Quoting frankkn
It depends on how you look at fundamentals.

From a sentiment perspective (that I've been posting) it makes absolute sense read my recent posts
I have been reading your posts and I have seen area of supply around 1.4200 you have drawn. It's technical analysis.

Suppose you were making your decisions based on significant news and nice deviations between forecasts and actual data, which is released. In this case (GDP today, there was nice difference between forecast 2,2% and actual 1,8%)you were doomed, unless you have pretty strong nerves, were scalping right after release taking long positions.

Probably, right after release most of people were thinking, "oh shit bad news for usd, let's take long position plus we are going up since the last two days, it would great deal". Meanwhile SM were finishing their distribution, using bad news for usd to buy it. Pretty smart. I'm just saying that SM used news to manipulate and lock in unaware traders

I don't how far we will go to the downside but as far as news are concerned this sharp move down doesn't make sense. Good for us

Cheers
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #20,480
  • May 26, 2011 10:05am May 26, 2011 10:05am
Quoting Baniu
I have been reading your posts and I have seen area of supply around 1.4200 you have drawn. It's technical analysis.

Suppose you were making your decisions based on significant news and nice deviations between forecasts and actual data, which is released. In this case (GDP today, there was nice difference between forecast 2,2% and actual 1,8%)you were doomed, unless you have pretty strong nerves, were scalping right after release taking long positions.

Probably, right after release most of people were thinking, "oh shit bad news for usd, let's...
Price is manipulated. Also huge amounts of money needs to move from country to country.

I don't give a shit what the news is.

Sentiment matters. Money moves to safe haven assets when people are scared, and to riskier assets when people are more confident.

Looking at the broad market to interpret sentiment is different from trading news or fundies
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