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  • #1,101
  • May 25, 2011 10:09pm May 25, 2011 10:09pm
Quoting lasty
AUD/USD double impact of China purchase of European debt plus Capex numbers has spurred AUD bulls.
1.0560-70 res breached 1.0620 still the big containment.
1.0450 level found sovereign buyers last night..

I dont see much has changed.
China always stated that it had european debt interest.
CAPEX maybe up but economy still on shakey grounds.

Europe will test the merit ..
Just to add watch AUD/NZD cross..
Unwinding of Long AUD Short NZD positions could spark further sell off towards 1.3000
  • #1,102
  • May 25, 2011 10:19pm May 25, 2011 10:19pm
Quoting evelee8
FX-Petra - You still hold your 1.07xx?
No, closed the last one @ 0680 for a small loss. Presently long from 0500 and 0460.

Regards,

edit--- just looked at the account and the 0460 postion closed on a limit @ 0580. Letting the 0500 run, stop moved to + 5
  • #1,103
  • May 25, 2011 10:23pm May 25, 2011 10:23pm
Closed another short term trading:
Long NZD 0.7930 @ TP 0.8060 (+130 pips)
(Doji pattern presented, bottom line draw at the entry point near region 0.7920)

As mentioned - NZD is another interesting pair to strike on if you think Aussie is too volatile and over-valued for you.

Good luck to all traders.
  • #1,104
  • May 25, 2011 11:41pm May 25, 2011 11:41pm
Quoting evelee8
Portfolio Updates:

Long 1.0718 - hold
Long 1.0588 - hold
Yesterday night draw a bottomline chart with potential buy-in @ 1.0450 region. Thus - Short term trading Long 1.0460 - TP 1.0580 (+120 pips) - Closed.

Aussie was at the good shape upon the market opening today..
It rallies together with the Eur further break up to 1.4120.
It should be able to hit above 1.06 today since it has broken the resistance @ 1.0580.
Closed Long 1.0588 - adjusted TP 1.0596. (+8 pips)
Reason of closed: Change to short term trading + Profit taking + interest.
  • #1,105
  • May 26, 2011 2:35am May 26, 2011 2:35am
Quoting st.forex4677
# News of Australia Private New Capital:
Building and structures trend volume estimated for rose 2.6%
# RBA financial
As u have mentioned Evelee, continued saving good for econ....Banks finding for the first time in early 90s that deposits is growing faster than credit. Result: The indication of increase number of national saving & reduction in current account deficit.
Man this is gobbledygook. If you have read this in a newspaper about savings growing faster than credit as being a good thing, then they are spinning it for you.

The reason credit will be slowing, and going into contraction is that now house prices are falling. House prices were the leader of the credit expansion..mortgage debt as a percent of GDP is 90%, which surpasses any of the previous housing bubbles in the US and the UK, and probably even Ireland. Huge housing bubble in Australia.

While prices are going up, credit would expand as banks would pyramid loans on top of reserves attained from previous loans. However, this is not coming from real savings...and now that the party is over in housing, that process of credit expansion is going into reverse as prices begin to fall...

Consider;

AUSTRALIAN mortgage delinquencies surged in the first quarter to a record, the latest sign of cracks in what used to be booming property market.

More home borrowers were a month or more behind on payments as of March 31 than as of December 31, Fitch Ratings said today.

The firm's 30+ Day Dinkum Index, a measure of 30-day arrears, rose to 1.79 per cent from 1.37 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter last year. Moreover, 90+ day delinquencies rose to 0.79 per cent from 0.54 per cent.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226063502041

The reason savings will be increasing faster is two fold. One is that credit expansion is slowing.
Two is that peoples demand for cash balances has increased, if you look at the savings rate in the UK, the US all over the world before the global financial crisis the savings rate started to move up, and it soared in 2008, going from negative in the UK to plus 8%.

AUD is vulnerable and the fact that it is hard to find any one who is negative about AUD on the forums is a contrarian sell signal.
  • #1,106
  • May 26, 2011 5:15pm May 26, 2011 5:15pm
Im surprised that AUD breach of 1.0620 hasnt gone on with it.
Perhaps people are wising up to the fact that Australia's gloss is starting to lose its sheen?
Reports like this; http://www.news.com.au/money/propert...-1226063849927

start popping up which the overseas investors may not be aware of.
On top of that we have two tier economy which the resource sector is dancing but the rest of economy is standing still.

Big Picture 1.0710 major resistance for me to get bullish again otherwise use any rally sub that level to sell for a test once again of the downside.
  • #1,107
  • May 26, 2011 6:13pm May 26, 2011 6:13pm
Quoting FX-Petra
No, closed the last one @ 0680 for a small loss. Presently long from 0500 and 0460.

Regards,

edit--- just looked at the account and the 0460 postion closed on a limit @ 0580. Letting the 0500 run, stop moved to + 5
closed 0500 @ 0640. Flat A/U now. Will wait to see if we get to 0710 area and what happens there. May is almost over, many traders will go away for the summer. Need to start thinking in terms of what the summer range will be. A lot of money to be made bouncing between 0710 and 0450 for a few months. We'll see what ultimatley forms.

Regards,
  • #1,108
  • May 26, 2011 6:19pm May 26, 2011 6:19pm
Quoting FX-Petra
closed 0500 @ 0640. Flat A/U now. Will wait to see if we get to 0710 area and what happens there. May is almost over, many traders will go away for the summer. Need to start thinking in terms of what the summer range will be. A lot of money to be made bouncing between 0710 and 0450 for a few months. We'll see what ultimatley forms.

Regards,



Hi FX-Petra,

i just closed 590@ 626, fell asleep last night TP@660 SL606.
do u still have any open position for AUD?
  • #1,109
  • May 26, 2011 8:16pm May 26, 2011 8:16pm
Australian Financial Review - PUBLISHED: 27 May 2011

"Resource and energy companies are preparing to splurge almost $90 billion in the biggest investment boom in the nation’s history."

This will fuel rate rise!!!!
  • #1,110
  • May 26, 2011 8:42pm May 26, 2011 8:42pm
Quoting evelee8
Closed Long 1.0588 - adjusted TP 1.0596. (+8 pips)
Reason of closed: Change to short term trading + Profit taking + interest.
The probability on Aus Rate hike +0.25% by June has increased to 50% since the inflation report forecast to raise to 3% compared to 2.7% by this December.

Closed: Short term trading 1.0574 TP @ 1.0630 (+56 pips)
One long left - 1.0718 remain adjusted TP @ 1.0719 - the interest paid for 1 month is good...

1-hour Technical analysis:
EMA5 EMA10 EMA20 EMA50 SMA100 SMA200
Value 1.0640 1.0630 1.0613 1.0583 1.0553 1.0589
BIAS Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy

Good luck to all traders.
Looking for an entry @ 1.05xx for Long.
  • #1,111
  • May 26, 2011 10:27pm May 26, 2011 10:27pm
Quoting evelee8
The probability on Aus Rate hike +0.25% by June has increased to 50% since the inflation report forecast to raise to 3% compared to 2.7% by this December.

Closed: Short term trading 1.0574 TP @ 1.0630 (+56 pips)
One long left - 1.0718 remain adjusted TP @ 1.0719 - the interest paid for 1 month is good...

1-hour Technical analysis:...


Nice one Evelee...you almost see the number 719....
it is 693 at the moment.

i just exit my position @629...

Good luck and hav a nice weekend
  • #1,112
  • May 27, 2011 1:19am May 27, 2011 1:19am
Aud/Usd This pair is on uptrend after breaking above yesterday, basing above retracement at 1.0600/10, and 1.0670 is starting to form a front support and might target high at 1.0900 next week if retracement isn't penetrated
  • #1,113
  • May 27, 2011 7:59am May 27, 2011 7:59am
The latest Melbourne Institute report raised the forecast for underlying inflation and suggested a rate hike in June may happen as a pre-emptive strike against inflation by the RBA.
  • #1,114
  • May 28, 2011 10:18am May 28, 2011 10:18am
Quoting forexmy
The latest Melbourne Institute report raised the forecast for underlying inflation and suggested a rate hike in June may happen as a pre-emptive strike against inflation by the RBA.
Yes, do rather suspect the RBA will hike it on Tuesday. The very cosy graft arrangement that exists between the Melbourne Institute and this Federal Labor government is a concern. (i.e. how to get money for your university, give the govt what it wants, even if your "forecasts" are pure crap).

"The Reserve Bank left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75 per cent for the sixth consecutive month in May. Reading between the lines of the minutes of the RBA monetary policy meeting, many market economists now expect the RBA to increase the cash rate in the June meeting. We view a June policy change as possibly a pre-emptive strike to keep a lid on domestic inflation.

While we continue to forecast at least two rate rises, we are mindful of the fact that consumer confidence remains weak, and global financial conditions are still problematic."

The full Melbourne Institue report attached.

Also not liking this piece in The Australian from Battllelino at the RBA, lots of apologetics and dismissing the negative impact of a rate hike for home owners.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226063714887

Problem is, that their hypothesis is flawed. Raising rates will only increase the divide in the two tiered economy we have and accelerate the "bust" cycle we are hitting in housing; mortgage delinquencies will rise at an even more alarming rate than the last one; while unemployment goes through the roof because all our non-resource industry exporters and tourism are (already) being hit hard.

Raising rates will not stop the rest of the world from buying AU's mining resources. It will however, guarantee the rest of world stops buying anything else that is made in Australia.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf MBET_May2011[1].pdf   232 KB | 576 downloads
  • #1,115
  • May 28, 2011 12:09pm May 28, 2011 12:09pm
"Steady interest rates, growth in average weekly earnings and a softening in dwelling prices have led to improved housing affordability across Australia in the March 2011 quarter."
  • #1,116
  • May 28, 2011 4:56pm May 28, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting forexmy
"Steady interest rates, growth in average weekly earnings and a softening in dwelling prices have led to improved housing affordability across Australia in the March 2011 quarter."
All what it has done is increased prices of goods and loans.
As mentioned already the RBA is about to make a big mistake like in 2008.

 

  1. QE 2 is about to end = Watch the S&P fall of a cliff
  2. US has reached its debt celling
  3. EU is bankrupt
  4. EU is in political turmoil

Anybody for GFC part II?
We hope not but the footprints are there. The only difference in part II is that there are no more bullets left to defend.

Cheers

  • #1,117
  • May 28, 2011 5:12pm May 28, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting forexmy
"Steady interest rates, growth in average weekly earnings and a softening in dwelling prices have led to improved housing affordability across Australia in the March 2011 quarter."
The housing affordability index is new piece of academic gobbledygook. Houses become more affordable because people can't afford to service the mortgages they took out when the price bubble hit full speed, so prices "soften" (pollie speak for taking a dive south). The govt is already flat out denying responsibility for the over-stimulation of the housing market or any negative consequences that will result, but it will be sheeted home to Labor anyway, where it belongs.

Rather suspect Swannie has already done the deal with the banks some time ago. The downgrade of the Big 4 is probably behind it - boost domestic saving to reduce the banks' exposure to foreign capital that funded the govt's over-stimulation of the property market, trying to fix your mistake. The banks won't be writing any new business but they will be screwing the suckers who bought in during the property price bubble with glee. The inflation "forecasts" are the rather un-credible excuse they're trotting out.

Labor just can't help themselves. Economic Mismanagement - it's their #1 forte. Nothing changes.
  • #1,118
  • May 28, 2011 5:51pm May 28, 2011 5:51pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
As mentioned already the RBA is about to make a big mistake like in 2008.
Will be interesting to see how market responds if they do hike. If memory serves me correctly, that disasterous hike in 2008 was not greeted well by the market, it was the only time I've seen the RBA hike and AU get thumped as result. Will that happen again this time, or is this current market still looking at AU through the Elton John size rose-coloured glasses?

Rather suspect it will be the latter. They need to park it somewhere; and there is another fresh round of superannuation and pension money hitting the market next week. It's not about logic or reason, or fundamentals. It's about capital flows and big money making more big money.

We are so completely stuffed.
  • #1,119
  • May 28, 2011 11:03pm May 28, 2011 11:03pm
Fallacies!!

Quote
The research indicates otherwise. Interest rates are far from being the dominant issue for Australians, who are more concerned about the price of food, petrol and utilities bills, and the lack of decisive leadership in federal politics.

Quote
The bottom line for real estate consumers, however, is that it's all quite irrelevant. Anyone approaching a property purchase with the correct mindset takes a long-term view.
A real estate buy means a loan commitment stretching 25 or 30 years beyond the horizon.
During the next two or three decades interest rates will go through many cycles, some up, some down. What happens at the next RBA meeting is not the core issue.

Quote
Banks assessing a loan application will ask whether the borrower can afford the loan at current interest rates. Then it will ask whether they can afford the loan if rates rise two percentage points some time in the future. Smart borrowers will have already asked themselves the same question.

The Australian May 28, 2011
  • #1,120
  • May 28, 2011 11:35pm May 28, 2011 11:35pm
Hi Guys, You’re worried about housing interest rates.
I can remember my housing interest rate in 1989 was 17%. In the 1990s it began to fall and the bank offered to lower my payment because I wasn’t paying as much interest, so they wanted to keep my loan on 25 years. I said no I will still pay the same. Seven years later my 25 years loan was paid off. Thousands of dollars in my pocket, not in the banks coffers.
If people who were buying their home in 2008 did the same as me, they will be laughing all the way to the bank, because they have put interest money in their pocket and not the bank. Also they are still in advance because the rate still has a long way to go ‘til it reaches the 2008 level. So they are still in front and putting money in their pocket.
Look at the graph:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: historicalrates2.gif Size: 26 KB
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