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Thinking Outside the Box!?!

  • #241
  • May 25, 2011 9:23am May 25, 2011 9:23am
Out of the box idea..

systematic approach does not work?

all I see is the majority of people doing the same thing myself included.. trying to put together those 4 step by step systems to trade the market

I imagine hedge funds are more like this.. less systematic but taking advantages of the fundamental outlook and striking at the right moment
  • #242
  • May 25, 2011 9:40am May 25, 2011 9:40am
Exactly newyear

this is the exact theory that has completely changed the way I approach trading recently.

There is nothing wrong with TA but it's just a completely lost and misunderstood art. I truly believe that the majority people like the ones you speak of are "system" focused rather than opportunity focused. Thats what real trading is, taking advantage of opportunities, like the same as if you went to an auction at the Sunday markets (in the real world) with profit in mind, you would be looking to buy some physical good that appears to be selling cheap in order to hock it off on ebay for a higher price... Opportunity.

What you don't do is go to an auction everyday already committed to buy something even though you don't know what is going to be on display yet.

You don't rock up and say, well based on the fact that the price has been bid up quickly in the last 15m means I'm going to buy because this is my "system"... Regardless of price, regardless of the good, regardless of the potential to re sell it higher, regardless of the transaction , shipping, storage costs, screw all that I'm going to buy because my system tells me to... Its ludicrous if you think about it. And how long will you be able to do this profitably before the guy in the red shirt notices and starts taking advantage of your predictability?

I think the majority are so trapped in this system mindset which focuses more on their personal equity curve than the market itself. At least I know I was for too long.

I truly believe to be successful (long term) you need to separate yourself from the "box" and learn to identify OPPORTUNITIES. This isn't so easy at first because we've been brain washed in a way to adopt a certain behavior. Monkey see monkey do. I also think marketing has a fkn lot to answer for, people are mislead form the beginning it seems

But it's a process that reminds me of the movie The Matrix... Because it's about freedom of the mind. To change and be aware of the environment in which you're operating.

You could still adopt a TA approach this way I guess but I think one would find that theres much better ways than to wait for your pixels dust to fall in the right places before pulling the trigger.

It's so much more interesting as well.

Just my 1.05 AUD
Time hides Nothing
  • #243
  • May 25, 2011 10:08am May 25, 2011 10:08am
Hi Newyear and Cindyxxx,
i have the exact realization with the analogy of crossing the road.
How do you cross the road? When there is no car.
Not when the traffic lights turn green, not when there is a pedestrian crossing, only when there is no car!
Even if you have traffic lights(SYSTEM), you still have to lookout(FEEL) !

Been bounded by a system is as ridiculous as crossing a road with your MP3 covering your ears and using the traffic lights only.
  • #244
  • May 25, 2011 10:28am May 25, 2011 10:28am
I guess as well the term "system" is pretty broad. I'm sure people can profitably trade with some sort of system, maybe any strategy can be technically a system.... In my view though the profitable ones have a much better understanding of why their systems work (that last bit is largely understated).

Good example is Billy Ray Valentine. Very simple system he has using S/R. I remember when he first made the thread and it was pretty exciting. Why then did 99% of the people after 6 months trading it fail to make a profit when Billy, using the exact same method was simply doing what he'd been doing for years?

Because Billy Ray used to work in a bank and I guess theres all sorts of underlying, subconscious and conscious factors that he is aware of that the other guys coming in from scratch simply couldn't relate to.

I guess the difference is Billy Ray had a dynamic approach to systematic way of trading TA where as the new comers focused on the systematic side of things and found themselves in the old Box again like all other systems they tried.

He built that method from the ground up and the people coming into the thread were starting with the roof top wondering why they couldn't build a house. I guess other examples are James16 etc.
Time hides Nothing
  • #245
  • May 25, 2011 10:32am May 25, 2011 10:32am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I guess as well the term "system" is pretty broad. I'm sure people can profitably trade with some sort of system, maybe any strategy can be technically a system.... In my view though the profitable ones have a much better understanding of why their systems work (that last bit is largely understated).

Good example is Billy Ray Valentine....
Yeah its just like anything else in life.. you cant just go to some forums and read a couple ebooks and expect to be a surgeon.. it takes experience and education
  • #246
  • May 25, 2011 10:59am May 25, 2011 10:59am
Here's an idea that's GUARENTEED to work.... Let me give you trading signals. But instead use my SL as your TP and my TP as your SL. You should be able to double your account every month or 2 easily!
  • #247
  • May 25, 2011 11:06am May 25, 2011 11:06am
Quoting Flava
Here's an idea that's GUARENTEED to work.... Let me give you trading signals. But instead use my SL as your TP and my TP as your SL. You should be able to double your account every month or 2 easily!
lol -This has been done/suggested/tried/talked about a million times. Fact is your R:R differentials by whatever combination you employ will cancel out the probabilities of reversing your otherwise failed trades... You could get lucky though... Long term though you're still screwed

Fact is you are still not trading to any sort of advantage, but still placing uninformed gambles. You're still in the box there
Time hides Nothing
  • #248
  • May 25, 2011 11:08am May 25, 2011 11:08am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Exactly newyear

this is the exact theory that has completely changed the way I approach trading recently.

There is nothing wrong with TA but it's just a completely lost and misunderstood art. I truly believe that the majority people like the ones you speak of are "system" focused rather than opportunity focused. Thats what real trading is, taking advantage of opportunities, like the same as if you went to an auction at the Sunday markets (in the real world) with profit in mind, you would be looking to buy some physical good that appears to be...

awesome post! I agree with every point stated.
Even though I am a systematic guy, I totally agree that just waiting for opportunities is even a better approach. Well, for me waiting for opportunities is when major developments strike the world (which is happening anyways at least once a month) and then trying to be on the right side to profit from those opportunities. The technicals are great for locating appropriate entry and stops, but these opportunities are let's say the catalyst for a technical setup to be a "sure" thing to profit from. I personally catch myself more often than not to become more and more a speculator (waiting for world developments and TA to line up and holding trades for a couple of weeks) and less and less a trader (just waiting for TA and very short-term news and holding trades for hours to days).
I think in the age of computers this "opportunity seeking" attitude has gone down the toilet.
Sperandeo is actually one of my idols, who in my opinion is one of the speculators that are seeking opportunities and are not only relying on TA.
  • #249
  • May 25, 2011 11:29am May 25, 2011 11:29am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I guess as well the term "system" is pretty broad. I'm sure people can profitably trade with some sort of system, maybe any strategy can be technically a system.... In my view though the profitable ones have a much better understanding of why their systems work (that last bit is largely understated).

Good example is Billy Ray Valentine....
BIlly Ray knows the deal... He might not be involved at all with this orderflow thing around here as we know it, but you can see his strategy is not really a "simple" s/r strategy, he puts a strong emphasis on sentiment and fundamentals and news data first and foremost to understand what's driving market movers to trade... he understands how they react and where they place there orders... and the s/r is simply where orderflow builds up, where the stops and orders are placed at and around. There may be a much deeper understanding to the microstructure processes then that, but, I think you get me... that's probly why people who thought it was simply just s/r trading failed...
  • #250
  • May 25, 2011 11:30am May 25, 2011 11:30am
Quoting Custos
awesome post! I agree with every point stated.
Even though I am a systematic guy, I totally agree that just waiting for opportunities is even a better approach. Well, for me waiting for opportunities is when major developments strike the world (which is happening anyways at least once a month) and then trying to be on the right side to profit from those opportunities. The technicals are great for locating appropriate entry and stops, but these opportunities are let's say the catalyst for a technical setup to be a "sure" thing to profit from....
I totally agree. You perfectly capture my thought process.
  • #251
  • Edited May 26, 2011 1:50am May 25, 2011 2:47pm | Edited May 26, 2011 1:50am
Quoting Monroe
BIlly Ray knows the deal... He might not be involved at all with this orderflow thing around here as we know it, but you can see his strategy is not really a "simple" s/r strategy, he puts a strong emphasis on sentiment and fundamentals and news data first and foremost to understand what's driving market movers to trade... he understands how they react and where they place there orders... and the s/r is simply where orderflow builds up, where the stops and orders are placed at and around. There may be a much deeper understanding to the microstructure...
In the interests of pointing some of you in the right direction I would just like to add, forex CAN be be traded using a systematic approach, almost 100% mechanically with just a tiny look at major/longer term fundis (monthly).

My point is if you CLOSE your mind to possibilities you are doing yourselves a great dis service. KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
  • #252
  • May 25, 2011 3:07pm May 25, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting jag1966
In the interests of pointing some of you in the right direction I would just like to add, forex CAN be be traded using a systematic approach,
I don't think anyone's disputing that jag
Time hides Nothing
  • #253
  • May 25, 2011 3:36pm May 25, 2011 3:36pm
Quoting jag1966
In the interests of pointing some of you in the right direction I would just like to add, forex CAN be be traded using a systematic approach, almost 100% mechanically with just a tiny look at major/longer term fundis (monthly).

Here are a few of quotes from a chat I had today with a trader friend I have been helping recently, I am sure he won't mind.

"since talking to you though I dont even know what happened its amazing things just kept on clicking everyday just seems so clear now. Thanks again for teaching me, it's like my mind is only...
nice, I was just commenting on the No Brainer trading s/r strategy. From what I read, he advises getting the info and look at what is going on and what could happen throughout the day even before looking at a chart and setting levels. I would also recommend doing this. My advice to anyone is definitely use a news feed if you're trading intraday. You don't have to look at 1000 things. I look at a few things before the sessions and then I'm only waiting for my trades and have a news feed up... simple.

Not saying you can't do without it though.
  • #254
  • May 25, 2011 3:51pm May 25, 2011 3:51pm
Quoting Custos
I think in the age of computers this "opportunity seeking" attitude has gone down the toilet.
Not really. It just got much harder/more competitive.

Quoting Monroe
My advice to anyone is definitely use a news feed if you're trading intraday. You don't have to look at 1000 things. I look at a few things before the sessions and then I'm only waiting for my trades and have a news feed up... simple.

Not saying you can't do without it though.
That's what I do as well. As far as I know, any sane daytrader would keep an eye on the news (you don't necessarily have to trade them, just be aware of them). I honestly don't know of any pro/serious daytraders who don't, but maybe that's just me.
  • #255
  • May 25, 2011 4:09pm May 25, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
I don't think anyone's disputing that jag
But you do seem to be disputing it.

Forex is NOT random, it can be traded systematically so stop wasting your time trying to look outside the box / re invent the wheel.
  • #256
  • May 25, 2011 4:13pm May 25, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting Marv
Not really. It just got much harder/more competitive.



That's what I do as well. As far as I know, any sane daytrader would keep an eye on the news (you don't necessarily have to trade them, just be aware of them). I honestly don't know of any pro/serious daytraders who don't, but maybe that's just me.
I must be insane then.

Ok nfp and interest rate announcements if I think about it. But I forget to most of the time.
  • #257
  • May 25, 2011 4:15pm May 25, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting jag1966
But you do seem to be disputing it.

Forex is NOT random, it can be traded systematically so stop wasting your time trying to look outside the box / re invent the wheel.
wow ok put words into my mouth... read between the lines and you may where I made a distinction between people that focus on the "system" and people that focus on the actual market... System is just a word, I thought I made that pretty clear. I can't be bothered spelling it out for you and you probably can't be bothered reading my post again, lets just leave it at that

You're just reading what you want to see.
Time hides Nothing
  • #258
  • May 25, 2011 4:21pm May 25, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
wow ok put words into my mouth... read between the lines and you may where I made a distinction between people that focus on the "system" and people that focus on the actual market... System is just a word, I thought I made that pretty clear. I can't be bothered spelling it out for you and you probably can't be bothered reading my post again, lets just leave it at that

You're just reading what you want to see.
He just clicks on threads to find people who he hasn't added to his buddy list or vouched for. lol
  • #259
  • May 25, 2011 4:22pm May 25, 2011 4:22pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
wow ok put words into my mouth... read between the lines and you may where I made a distinction between people that focus on the "system" and people that focus on the actual market... System is just a word, I thought I made that pretty clear. I can't be bothered spelling it out for you and you probably can't be bothered reading my post again, lets just leave it at that

You're just reading what you want to see.
Sorry buddy I am actually trying to help you.

I understand the market and I use a system to trade it profitably. I realise well enough that you cannot be bothered, so no worries.
  • #260
  • May 25, 2011 4:23pm May 25, 2011 4:23pm
Quoting Nverstop
He just clicks on threads to find people who he hasn't added to his buddy list or vouched for. lol
haha, yeah so funny, if you took the time to read most of my buddies and vouched for peoples work then you may win at this forex game.
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