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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #25,181
  • May 24, 2011 9:33am May 24, 2011 9:33am
not really, suppose you call that momentum, net pips its travel divided by the hours its taken it to travel it.

sometimes my eyes or brain WANT to see things that are not there, so thats when math comes in handy. i want to find the force behind the move how much buying or selling pressure there is. candles lie too, remember its just a block of set amount of hours OHLC, i want to know how many pips has it really traveled. compared to its previous moves and ATR.

at any given point if i believe that im not sure or cant make a good estimate of

market form : bear, bull, range i stay out and observe
conviction of move to signal reversal or correction i just wait the oportunity to go with the prevailing trend at the least amount of risk
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,182
  • May 24, 2011 10:37am May 24, 2011 10:37am
thanks Redlion for clearing that up. makes more sense now.

One more question I would like to get cleared up. Any help will be greatly appreciated.

Say you enter a position and it goes your way. You enter lvl 2 and it still looks like the trade is going your way. Then you add lvl3. Initially its looking all is well but suddenly it drops significantly. How do you attempt a rescue in this situation. Say the attack sequenced executed were 1,1,2 so that we have total 4 lots in the market. Do you deploy lvl 3 rescue sequence or just bite the bullet on the last level and then attempt on the rescue on lvl 2. I understand that each trader will have their own methods and it will vary on case by case basis. But assuming in this scenario there was an unexpected news on the market and it reacted quite severely to the news.
  • #25,183
  • May 24, 2011 10:55am May 24, 2011 10:55am
yeah that is something i have been thinking about

i guess with me personally. it depends on my target time frame ( not time frame as in candle time frame)

but how long am i staying in the market, if i attempt to position for the daily trend, or just the current wave and get out.

but i figure my account can take me being in with 5 lots, that would be 50cts per pip, and i have enough to rescue if needed with out feeling over exposed.

so that is what i personally used

i go in 11235813 only when building longer term positions by letting each position forage on the enemy as to have enough time to react to a retrace. the fibo position building is good IMO because it takes 50% retrace of the move to wipe out foreing capital, as its bringing your basis close to the market.

to me at least for now i havent mastered that yet, so its easier to place a scout, and when it turns my way go in 4 lots to be in with total of 5 lots if im being quick.
to fibo in is to slow and i end up paying too much spread, while taking too much risk.

but im curious on how other people do it
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,184
  • May 24, 2011 11:01am May 24, 2011 11:01am
Quoting the redlion
[...]
to fibo in is to slow and i end up paying too much spread, while taking too much risk.

but im curious on how other people do it
Hi RedLion,

only a short comment: Are you sure about your maths?
You pay always the same spread, regardless if you send it in like

1+2+2 or
5 or
1+1+1+1+1

Let's say you have 2 pips spread.
So finally you pay 5 lots * 2 pips = 10 pips spread

Or you maybe you are talking about something different :-)

CU,
Niels
  • #25,185
  • May 24, 2011 11:08am May 24, 2011 11:08am
you might be right niels maybe in my head im thinking im paying too much lol

but to me going fibo in to close together, its just slower, and a retrace takes out all my positions.

but mamood you might shed better light, you are trader i look up to
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,186
  • May 24, 2011 11:12am May 24, 2011 11:12am
Niels scales in pretty rapidly based on momentum because he trades low timeframes so to not do so wouldn't be very advantageous for time invested.

Scalein is based on momentum rather than distance.

Which you can see from his blotters.
  • #25,187
  • May 24, 2011 11:22am May 24, 2011 11:22am
Mamood

now he is pretty good lol

im still in training and playing with different ideas

i toy with correlations as well

split my army in different currencies all according to analysis and depending on the USD movement. and if in trouble i rescue individually (from lenghsww)

that is why im so addicted to forex, so many ways to skin the cat, as long as you are not predicting and are flexible,

FTI teachings are a great foundation, the core, but one must find our own way i believe, and if its not working then by all mean change it. if it is just continue, and learn it, fine tune it.

but like eisntein said make it simple but not simpler
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,188
  • May 24, 2011 11:29am May 24, 2011 11:29am
Personally I think what leighs was doing was a mistake. I think a beginner should focus on one central currency at least until he has proven he is profitable on it. Ofc you can look at the other 3 kds but I would pick one of them to focus on and keep track of their behaviour and if they have any tendencies around diff opens, etc.

Niels started with UJ and spent almost all of his time with that currency everyday and as you can see from previous blotters he become very familiar with its behaviour.

Master one first then move on. You'll see this in other markets too professionals council to stick to one instrument until one knows it in and out.
  • #25,189
  • May 24, 2011 11:34am May 24, 2011 11:34am
Quoting Nverstop
Personally I think what leighs was doing was a mistake. I think a beginner should focus on one central currency at least until he has proven he is profitable on it. Ofc you can look at the other 3 kds but I would pick one of them to focus on and keep track of their behaviour and if they have any tendencies around diff opens, etc.

Niels started with UJ and spent almost all of his time with that currency everyday and as you can see from previous blotters he become very familiar with its behaviour.

Master one first then move on. You'll see...
i disagree but to each his own

there really is no currency but the USD
its obvious they all dance to the tune of the USD, if dollar strengthens, the aud gbp and eur will all fall,
direction is all the same .............unless there is something fishy going on in that particual economy. at least my experience.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,190
  • May 24, 2011 11:36am May 24, 2011 11:36am
Guys, please, these are speculations. Get your mouse and go fighting to the market:-).
Practice, practice, practice... Regards
  • #25,191
  • May 24, 2011 11:52am May 24, 2011 11:52am
Can anyone suggest any book on compound chart formation.
  • #25,192
  • May 24, 2011 12:16pm May 24, 2011 12:16pm
FTI and ZORAN suggested good books on these

at the beginning of the thread i think page 3-4 im not sure.

but learn what makes the candle look that way, and how candles are form,
understand the candles not the patterns

there was a research done im not sure by who at this time but if youre interested i can find that info for you.

formations, single or compound are not reliable,
in essesnce a candle stick is just price cut in blocks of time, for the chart reader to make more sense of it. OHLC is what they determine as well as range, and momentum. i made some drawings

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: candle stick explained.png Size: 26 KB


Attached Image
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,193
  • May 24, 2011 12:24pm May 24, 2011 12:24pm
there really is no currency but the USD
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #25,194
  • May 24, 2011 1:49pm May 24, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting the redlion
FTI and ZORAN suggested good books on these

at the beginning of the thread i think page 3-4 im not sure.

but learn what makes the candle look that way, and how candles are form,
understand the candles not the patterns

there was a research done im not sure by who at this time but if youre interested i can find that info for you.

formations, single or compound are not reliable,
in essesnce a candle stick is just price cut in blocks of time, for the chart reader to make more sense of it....
good point

PS my image is to for my previous post, maybe it helps when you dont fight with the "lions" ... or to your rescue
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: time.JPG Size: 75 KB
  • #25,195
  • May 24, 2011 7:15pm May 24, 2011 7:15pm
Back in the jungle.
I fired my Oanda account.
It felt really odd. Now they have metatrader?!
For whatever is worthy!
Because of my heavy commitment at work and the insanity of this market.
-All market?-, I am trading 1H in Eu/$ and $/CHF.
How? Both ways as the market goes. You figure.
I do not know the new people here.
Probably I will not be posting much.
There is not much to say, but
thanks to fti and his wisdom.
Good luck to all.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #25,196
  • May 24, 2011 7:26pm May 24, 2011 7:26pm
Quoting luSan
Back in the jungle.
I fired my Oanda account.
It felt really odd. Now they have metatrader?!
For whatever is worthy!
Because of my heavy commitment at work and the insanity of this market.
-All market?-, I am trading 1H in Eu/$ and $/CHF.
How? Both ways as the market goes. You figure.
I do not know the new people here.
Probably I will not be posting much.
There is not much to say, but
thanks to fti and his wisdom.
Good luck to all.
Good to see you here.

Textor
  • #25,197
  • May 24, 2011 9:10pm May 24, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting textor
Good to see you here.

Textor
yep.
veo ultimamente mucho cine argentino.
le digo a mi esposa que vivir alli seria muy interesante.
Tschus!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #25,198
  • May 24, 2011 9:27pm May 24, 2011 9:27pm
Quoting luSan
Back in the jungle.
I fired my Oanda account.
It felt really odd. Now they have metatrader?!
For whatever is worthy!
Because of my heavy commitment at work and the insanity of this market.
-All market?-, I am trading 1H in Eu/$ and $/CHF.
How? Both ways as the market goes. You figure.
I do not know the new people here.
Probably I will not be posting much.
There is not much to say, but
thanks to fti and his wisdom.
Good luck to all.

good to see u here Lusan
  • #25,199
  • May 24, 2011 9:29pm May 24, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
good to see u here Lusan
Cheers
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #25,200
  • May 25, 2011 1:09am May 25, 2011 1:09am
Quoting luSan
Back in the jungle.
I fired my Oanda account.
It felt really odd. Now they have metatrader?!
For whatever is worthy!
Because of my heavy commitment at work and the insanity of this market.
-All market?-, I am trading 1H in Eu/$ and $/CHF.
How? Both ways as the market goes. You figure.
I do not know the new people here.
Probably I will not be posting much.
There is not much to say, but
thanks to fti and his wisdom.
Good luck to all.
Hi Louis,

What a nice suprise!
Hope things have developed well with your job!

Hope you will find back to the markets soon.
They seem to be insane only, if your are too faraway from action, especially trading the H1 chart.

But that is my very personal opinion only ;-)

All the best,
Niels
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