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Majors Thread: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 6, 2006 12:36am Mar 5, 2006 11:51pm | Edited Mar 6, 2006 12:36am
I don't want to barge into another thread to talk about random currency observations. I always feel like I'm diluting the purpose of those threads if I'm not talking about the thread topic. There is no specific sections, threads nor stickies that have an open ongoing thread type of deal going on. So go ahead and post observations on anything that relates to any of the majors. Feel free to post any signals from the different strategies and methods that have their own thread here or any personal ones or from wherever. It doesn't matter this thread has no topic other than the 4 major currencies.

I want to respect the different threads for their purpose and don't want to detract from the creator's intent. This thread is created for any random comments and ideas. There are too many pairs to have each one have a thread of their own. I think these 4 currencies and their pairs are likely the bulk of the ones people trade. I only trade 4 pairs anyhoo. This thread covers 12, I'll just ignore the rest of em.... . If someone wants to make a second thread for all the pairs with CAD, CHF, NZD and the rest go right ahead. I think that would be a good way to not all pile in on one thread. Makes it about a dozen pairs in each thread. I don't trade em so I'll likely kick it in here.

I'll be right back with my first few comments but I'm gonna get a drink from the fridge. Make yourselves feel at home. Keep your feet off the furniture.
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  • #2
  • Mar 6, 2006 12:33am Mar 6, 2006 12:33am
The Daily chart slow stochastic for the eur/usd has made it's initial touch overbought. With the gbp/usd not quite mature yet, probably will make it's touch about 24hrs I'll be starting to look for good shorting levels soon. I have a possible top for the fiber at about 1.2114. It probably will spend a few days above 1.20 before dropping below it again with the bottom of the trendchannel sitting around 1.19 . Although I'm looking at the weekly chart becoming a full blown bull stoch after that and back on up possibly breaking above the top it will estabishing here in the next 24hrs. I'm not sure the top just established today is it.

The cable doesn't have a clear top defined for me. The upper TL for the trendchannel is about at 1.77, a penny above current levels. there are a couple of minor resistences in between that could cap and bullish momentum before the daily stoch makes it 's turn. The fact that it's in contradiction to the weekly stoch might creat alot of whippy action and not and specifically great spikes to capitalize on it. Both the european/dollar pairs have this contradictory stoch so both could be muddled. I could just wait for it to make a bottom TL touch and for the daily stoch to come into harmony with the weekly. Of course I'm too impatient at times and will take positions knowing I can close out with small gains if the moves are muted or muddy.

I'm still riding the eur/jpy long and it's got about 24hrs before it makes a daily stoch touch on the upper horizonal. It's on a TL right now so it could hold these levels and not push any push higher. The TL is actually a funky crossing one(upsloped) from the bottoms off the price action for the beginning of this year that includes the break point that it made on the move down to the low 137s low it just made that I took back up. That TL also is crossed(downsloped)) by another TL that is coming off the past three weekly chart candles bodies. The weekly chart's stoch is at 50% and bearish so I wouldn't be suprised if we don't get much higher before it turns. I'm already looking at closing down my long and establishing some small shorts. It depends on how it treats this TL. There isn't alot to go on out there after this as far as finding good turn points. The monthly chart does offer some TLs to possibly zero in on. One at 142.50ish and one at about 143.20ish. So they are up there. At this point I can't identify any in between but that could change at any point.

I left my beer in the freezer too long trying to get it cold quick. I now have a beer slushy...
peace and profits.
  • #3
  • Mar 6, 2006 9:08am Mar 6, 2006 9:08am
pipsta, every time i look at that fridge i get real thirsty

my 2 pips on euro and cable:
right now, the euro is showing a DBHLC on the daily chart and cable shows a large daily BEOB. cable is coming off strong fibo confluence at the 1.7600 mark and has lots of support around 1.7500. the euro has strong confluence around 1.2112. the magnet guru, johnfx has identified a number of euro magnets south of current prices and 1 slightly above in his thread. i'm thinking prices will continue heading south for a day or so then rebound. and just now the US factory order figures have been released, -4.5% better than forecast.....
  • #4
  • Edited 12:00pm Mar 6, 2006 11:45am | Edited 12:00pm
Quoting Trumpcard
pipsta, every time i look at that fridge i get real thirsty

my 2 pips on euro and cable:
right now, the euro is showing a DBHLC on the daily chart and cable shows a large daily BEOB. cable is coming off strong fibo confluence at the 1.7600 mark and has lots of support around 1.7500. the euro has strong confluence around 1.2112. the magnet guru, johnfx has identified a number of euro magnets south of current prices and 1 slightly above in his thread. i'm thinking prices will continue heading south for a day or so then rebound. and just now the US factory order figures have been released, -4.5% better than forecast.....
It's kinda funny, whenever I'm sure the price will quickly turn, it wallows around, whenever I think it will wallow around it quickly turns. The cable has returned to the center of it's trendchannel(daily chart). The fiber has established above the TL of the trendchannel it had previously been in(daily).

Although on 4hr charts we have a defined trendchannel for both these pairs. 4hr stochs on both those pairs are almost mature and oversold. They both are also sitting on bottom TLs on those 4hr charts. The 4hr and daily chart slow stochs will be contra for the next 12-24 hrs so I don't see this TL breaking right now. It remains to be seen after the 4hr gets back in line with the daily if there will be enough juice to bring it this low or break these TLs before the daily matures oversold and lines back up with the weekly. Both of the TLs are upsloped with the fiber being aggresively so.

edit: Both pair are pressing that TL as I write this.
  • #5
  • Mar 7, 2006 10:17am Mar 7, 2006 10:17am
Awesome break of 4hr chart TLs leads to the drop in the cable and fiber. I had only a small short on the fiber opened. The signal that triggered my shorting isn't a fully formed strategy yet as I'm still learning about it. I would have liked to have had more but I was looking for a rounding top and it turned out to be spiked top.

The cable has already bumped into the big weekly chart TL thats been the trendchannel bottom for all movement from nov05 until now. It's also made a 200ema(1.7354) touch off the weekly chart.These are good levels to consider longs but I'm keeping an eye on the fiber along with cable because a break by both is possible. I didn't think there would have been that 4hr break so soon as I was looking for a revisit to the tops that had just been established but these drops have actually opened up better levels for longs. The fiber hasn't made that bottom TL touch on it's weekly chart trendchannel bottom. It also has the 200ema(1.1744) calling out to it but it might be too far out there to make a touch. It will have to break the big weekly TL to make that touch and I'm not holding my breathe for it but nothing is too far fetched. There is some support for that touch as there is a short TL on the weekly that involves the last 5 candles that's pointing right at that 200ema target so it's possible. Some fundamental pressure could bring that level into reality in no time.
  • #6
  • Mar 7, 2006 12:18pm Mar 7, 2006 12:18pm
Why not turn this into a blog in the journal factory..?
  • #7
  • Mar 8, 2006 12:09am Mar 8, 2006 12:09am
Are we feeling a teensy weensy bit hyper tonight? Maybe the diet needs attention. Possibly a dietician would recommend balancing some solids with the liquids. Just a thought. Maybe try clearing the mind - meditate.

Sit in the lotus position and repeat the following endlessly:
Ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
  • #8
  • Edited 10:53am Mar 10, 2006 9:57am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting Isotonic
Why not turn this into a blog in the journal factory..?
My intention was not to create a journal where I'm the only one posting. Which is one of the reasons why I guess I'm not posting anymore. Lack of interaction. Another reason is because I find when I'm posting alot I tend to trade worse. Like my mind gets preoccupied with what I wrote and not with watching the price action. I get stuck in staying true to what I wrote instead of staying flexible to what is developing.

Quoting niceguy777
Are we feeling a teensy weensy bit hyper tonight? Maybe the diet needs attention. Possibly a dietician would recommend balancing some solids with the liquids. Just a thought. Maybe try clearing the mind - meditate.

Sit in the lotus position and repeat the following endlessly:
Ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
uuuummmmmmmmmmmm..........

Anyhoo...I got buy signals on both fiber and cable. After this drop this morning the stochs on the daily charts are mature and made their initial touch(fiber will have made it's touch once the data from today is added to the indicator) which is my cue to take interest in reversals. Cable looks more promising than fiber and looks to have more room to run once it decides to turn with 1.7425 and 1.75 as potential targets.
  • #9
  • Mar 10, 2006 10:03am Mar 10, 2006 10:03am
Quoting Pipsta
Trading and fishing are similiar. You aren't gonna catch any fish unless you have poles in the water.
As the Old Man that taught me how to Fly Fish on the rivers of Scotland used to say as we parted ways and headed in opposite directions on the river.

"Tight Lines."
  • #10
  • Mar 10, 2006 10:12am Mar 10, 2006 10:12am
Quoting Pipsta
My intention was not to create a journal where I'm the only one posting. Which is one of the reasons why I guess I'm not posting anymore. Lack of interaction. Another reason is because I find when I'm posting alot I tend to trade worse. Like my mind gets preoccupied with what I wrote and not with watching the price action. I get stuck in staying true to what I wrote instead of staying flexible to what is developing.
I actually think this is a very good point. Making predictions is a risky business. We are all afraid of being seen to be wrong.

Nice move on the Cable this morning, as you say. It stuck nicely to my framework - but no, I wouldn't have publicly predicted that! More important to stay in your own space and react to what is actaully happening.
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
  • #11
  • Mar 10, 2006 10:50am Mar 10, 2006 10:50am
Quoting niceguy777
I actually think this is a very good point. Making predictions is a risky business. We are all afraid of being seen to be wrong.
I'm not as really concearned about being seen as wrong. To be honest whether I'm viewed as right or wrong by others has no impact on my profitability. It's just that my methods often include either long or short positions depending on what price action dictates.

As an example, my stoch is mature and my MAs are telling me the cable is a good buy right now. But I'm also aware of price action and the developing wedge, if it creates a bearish triangle I could sell on the break of the TL. It's hard to include every thought and method I use in every posted assesment so sometimes I could give someone the wrong idea and if people aren't privey to all of my methods. It could look like I was misleading. Also if I state one thing, I could wind up being influenced even by my own words and feel pressured to continue that line of thought for continuity sake even though price action keeps alerting me to another possibility.

By the way, the cable at this point is not creating a bearish wedge, it looks kinda bullish. This move down looks like it was a very fundamental push, a last gasp effort so to speak at the end of the overall bear week. The technical data suggests there will be a rebound.
  • #12
  • Mar 10, 2006 11:20am Mar 10, 2006 11:20am
Can i know what settings you got on your slow stoch
  • #13
  • Mar 10, 2006 12:25pm Mar 10, 2006 12:25pm
Quoting Pipsta
I'm not as really concearned about being seen as wrong. To be honest whether I'm viewed as right or wrong by others has no impact on my profitability. It's just that my methods often include either long or short positions depending on what price action dictates.......

......It could look like I was misleading. Also if I state one thing, I could wind up being influenced even by my own words and feel pressured to continue that line of thought for continuity sake even though price action keeps alerting me to another possibility.
But you care about being misleading - both to yourself and to others. Nice.
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
  • #14
  • Mar 12, 2006 6:46pm Mar 12, 2006 6:46pm
Quoting Pipsta
By the way, the cable at this point is not creating a bearish wedge, it looks kinda bullish. This move down looks like it was a very fundamental push, a last gasp effort so to speak at the end of the overall bear week. The technical data suggests there will be a rebound.
After a quick visit to 1.7200, perhaps? What do you think?
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
  • #15
  • Mar 12, 2006 8:27pm Mar 12, 2006 8:27pm
Pipsta,

You mind if I grab a beer from the fridge?
- SAFE TRADING MONEY DUCK
  • #16
  • Mar 12, 2006 8:41pm Mar 12, 2006 8:41pm
Quoting niceguy777
After a quick visit to 1.7200, perhaps? What do you think?
I guess I should have mentioned current price when I made that statement. The move down with 1.7229 as a bottom on friday had just happened and I was looking at that as a possible bottom with a move back up coming this week. Even with the waffling here at market open and false breaks short I think it just provides a good level to long from if you can get low 1.72s. Unfortunately with the weekend mashed into it the wedge developing is messy and not really giving much clues. It still looks bullish but it isn't a convincing wedge by any means. I'm just going on the fact that so much ground was taken short and all the support on the daily and weekly chart is way north of current that there will be some consolidation with a bullishness to it even if there is to be another southward bound move. There still is some selling pressure on the cable. It also is sitting on the 50ema on the monthly chart which is at 1.7265 and has broken the TL from the past 4 months to the short side so there could be another push south coming. I still think it's likely to finish the month closer to where it opened at which is at 1.7549. If it happens to get there by way of traveling south first so be it. Just gives me a better level to enter at before it makes it's way back north.
  • #17
  • Mar 12, 2006 9:13pm Mar 12, 2006 9:13pm
Quoting Pipsta
...
I left my beer in the freezer too long trying to get it cold quick. I now have a beer slushy...
From the TV serries Mythbusters....next time you need a cold one, break out the CO2 extinguisher. A 5 to 10 second blast and you've got cold brew.

Kids; don't try this at home.

; - )
  • #18
  • Mar 13, 2006 2:00am Mar 13, 2006 2:00am
Quoting accrete
From the TV serries Mythbusters....next time you need a cold one, break out the CO2 extinguisher. A 5 to 10 second blast and you've got cold brew.

Kids; don't try this at home.

; - )
Better to take 1 or 2 six-packs and cool them simultaneously and then put them in the fridge afterwards... It'll push the per-can price down for cooling it that way from (approx.) USD 30 per can to USD 5 per can... : (Much better economy!)
  • #19
  • Mar 13, 2006 3:42pm Mar 13, 2006 3:42pm
Hi all,

I have gotten separate confirmation of a short-term (5m) and 4h LONG signal for EUR/USD today around 2pm MST/4pm EST. Is anyone biting on this or are you all sitting out until after the quarterly trade deficit news tomorrow (Tuesday)?

Comments welcome,

Ian
  • #20
  • Mar 13, 2006 3:51pm Mar 13, 2006 3:51pm
Quoting iboersma
Hi all,

I have gotten separate confirmation of a short-term (5m) and 4h LONG signal for EUR/USD today around 2pm MST/4pm EST. Is anyone biting on this or are you all sitting out until after the quarterly trade deficit news tomorrow (Tuesday)?

Comments welcome,

Ian
Today wasn't to great a day for trading (at least the London session). Very limited range, and no good signals AFAICT...

Also the upper resistance has been very strong at 1.1965/70, and we might see a retest of support before any Bull action takes over. If the news tomorrow permits, it may finally break the resistance, but OTOH it could also drive spot through support... I'd wait for a clean break of resistance before I go long!

Let's see what tomorrow brings...
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