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Price is everything

  • #18,481
  • May 24, 2011 7:13am May 24, 2011 7:13am
11 more silver.. love silver better than gold
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  • #18,482
  • May 24, 2011 7:18am May 24, 2011 7:18am
Quoting biDc
Here's a breakout trade I took that was stopped out at. I made an analysis of what I did wrong and was hoping you pros can chime in on it too

Note to self: Trade retracements of breakout NOT BREAKOUTS ITSELF

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/image/...t/500/flags/LL
Spot on
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #18,483
  • May 24, 2011 7:19am May 24, 2011 7:19am
closed crude buy.. gave 26

that's it from me for the day guys..

have good ones.........
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  • #18,484
  • May 24, 2011 7:24am May 24, 2011 7:24am
sorry.. forgot my second ngas buy.. closed with 22
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  • #18,485
  • May 24, 2011 7:55am May 24, 2011 7:55am
Quoting biDc
Here's a breakout trade I took that was stopped out at. I made an analysis of what I did wrong and was hoping you pros can chime in on it too

Note to self: Trade retracements of breakout NOT BREAKOUTS ITSELF

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/image/...t/500/flags/LL
Nice one! The supply zone is actually a demand zone! Zones above price are supply, below price are demand. Fake-outs do occur and hence keep an eye on PA to determine when to enter the market.

Correct... try to avoid trading breakouts, more so on the higher timeframes. More often than not, they suck novices in!

  • #18,486
  • May 24, 2011 7:56am May 24, 2011 7:56am
Quoting PhAnTi'
as well this one.... -.-

Attachment
You can create 'set and forget' orders if you believe that the supply or demand zone is going to hold. This is how Sam Seiden operates, but with 20 years of experience, he knows which ones will hold or not.
  • #18,487
  • May 24, 2011 7:57am May 24, 2011 7:57am
Quoting bbakker
Nice one! The supply zone is actually a demand zone! Zones above price are supply, below price are demand. Fake-outs do occur and hence keep an eye on PA to determine when to enter the market.

Correct... try to avoid trading breakouts, more so on the higher timeframes.

Oops you are right. I typoed that one. I meant demand zone!
  • #18,488
  • May 24, 2011 8:03am May 24, 2011 8:03am
In reference to my earlier post -

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post4640088

Here is my short at the extreme of the supply zone. Let's hope this one works well.

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  • #18,489
  • May 24, 2011 8:05am May 24, 2011 8:05am
Quoting biDc
Oops you are right. I typoed that one. I meant demand zone!
Easily done... we knew what you meant! Did it myself all the time with Support and Resistance... and still do occasionaly... lol
  • #18,490
  • May 24, 2011 8:10am May 24, 2011 8:10am
tthx buddy




Quoting Ifmyante
Here's one that gives an alarm and popup and optional email when price approaches a line you draw, be it horizontal or diagonal. Just fill in the description of the line as Alert_1
Trading is all about probability, low risk/high reward ,buy low/sell high
  • #18,491
  • May 24, 2011 8:10am May 24, 2011 8:10am
Quoting bbakker
Easily done... we knew what you meant! Did it myself all the time with Support and Resistance... and still do occasionaly... lol
hey bbakker what do you think of these? I'm currently watching how PA will develop in these zones
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  • #18,492
  • May 24, 2011 8:36am May 24, 2011 8:36am
Quoting biDc
hey bbakker what do you think of these? I'm currently watching how PA will develop in these zones
I hope you took that GBPJPY short.

Personally, I would wait for 117 on EURJPY for the short, but the area marked out is a valid supply zone and you will see a reaction from it... just maybe not a big one!

GBPJPY could be a swing trade, but the demand zone at 130 will be tough to crack IMHO.

I am a JPY bear!

I am focusing on EU, SLV, GLD, Oil and ES at the moment to really get to know these instruments!
  • #18,493
  • May 24, 2011 8:44am May 24, 2011 8:44am
Quoting bbakker
I hope you took that GBPJPY short.

Personally, I would wait for 117 on EURJPY for the short, but the area marked out is a valid supply zone and you will see a reaction from it... just maybe not a big one!

GBPJPY could be a swing trade, but the demand zone at 130 will be tough to crack IMHO.

I am a JPY bear!

I am focusing on EU, SLV, GLD, Oil and ES at the moment to really get to know these instruments!
Yeah I'm waiting for E/J to reach well into the supply zone first or some sort of strong PA signal.

As for G/J, I shorted at break of 133 in the 5min chart.

Speaking of futures I've been keeping track of them too and trading them demo account. Here's two trades I took since this morning, both off the break below supply zone. Hope to learn much from you
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  • #18,494
  • May 24, 2011 9:04am May 24, 2011 9:04am
Quoting biDc
Yeah I'm waiting for E/J to reach well into the supply zone first or some sort of strong PA signal.

As for G/J, I shorted at break of 133 in the 5min chart.

Speaking of futures I've been keeping track of them too and trading them demo account. Here's two trades I took since this morning, both off the break below supply zone. Hope to learn much from you
Oil is a good short! I went for SLV instead! Don't follow DJ, but ES, although that has bear written all over it... probably in anticipation of QE3 ending at the end of June. If that happens watch world indices tumble and dollar gain some serious strength... maybe the ball has already started rolling!
  • #18,495
  • May 24, 2011 9:07am May 24, 2011 9:07am
Quoting bbakker
Oil is a good short! I went for SLV instead! Don't follow DJ, but ES, although that has bear written all over it... probably in anticipation of QE3 ending at the end of June. If that happens watch world indices tumble and dollar gain some serious strength... maybe the ball has already started rolling!
P.S. Oil just dropped its knickers... ching ching. My SLV short is looking good too! Happy days!

Patience... is to wait until price comes to your area before you pull the trigger and sometimes you wait for confirmation on the lower timeframes. Once price has left... you have missed the boat. Don't go jumping in... time to wait again or look at different instruments.
  • #18,496
  • May 24, 2011 9:11am May 24, 2011 9:11am
Quoting bbakker
P.S. Oil just dropped its knickers... ching ching. My SLV short is looking good too! Happy days!

Patience... is to wait until price comes to your area before you pull the trigger and sometimes you wait for confirmation on the lower timeframes. Once price has left... you have missed the boat. Don't go jumping in... time to wait again or look at different instruments.
Yeah my oil trade is heavily in the greens now! Learned my lesson about jumping into missed boats earlier this week! Never agian lol

I had a sell stop set on silver that I forgot about and it was just triggered.
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  • #18,497
  • May 24, 2011 9:14am May 24, 2011 9:14am
Quoting bbakker
P.S. Oil just dropped its knickers... ching ching. My SLV short is looking good too! Happy days!

Patience... is to wait until price comes to your area before you pull the trigger and sometimes you wait for confirmation on the lower timeframes. Once price has left... you have missed the boat. Don't go jumping in... time to wait again or look at different instruments.
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See how price has hit that demand zone... that should be your 1st target... the opposing demand level if short or supply level if long. 200 sma on m15 for confluence and crucially, it has not made a lower low... yet! Therefore, bulls are still in control!

Now wait for price to make a lower high... if it does, you short still looks good, but it doesn't matter because you already took some profit of the table and possible moved to BE. Now if it does make a lower low, switch to a higher timeframe and see how far you can let the baby run to maybe a bigger opposing supply zone if long and demand zone if short!

Price action at its simplest! Remember people... keep it simple!
  • #18,498
  • May 24, 2011 9:14am May 24, 2011 9:14am
what do you guys think about this chf long? i am in with 20pips sl under the trendline
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  • #18,499
  • May 24, 2011 9:30am May 24, 2011 9:30am
Quoting bbakker
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See how price has hit that demand zone... that should be your 1st target... the opposing demand level if short or supply level if long. 200 sma on m15 for confluence and crucially, it has not made a lower low... yet! Therefore, bulls are still in control!

Now wait for price to make a lower high... if it does, you short still looks good, but it doesn't matter because you already took some profit of the table and possible moved to BE. Now if it does make a lower low, switch to a higher timeframe and see how far you can...
Just made a lower low on oil... 96 here we come again... maybe even lower! Take some more off at the 96 demand level and then let your last position run. I generally split my positions into threes.
  • #18,500
  • May 24, 2011 9:46am May 24, 2011 9:46am
Quoting keikor
what do you guys think about this chf long? i am in with 20pips sl under the trendline
I am staying away from USDCHF as we are in unchartered waters with new lows been made (EURCHF as well).

CHF has some correlation with gold... so keep an eye on gold.

Personally I would not have taken this trade myself... but we all trade differently, even if we use the same supply and demand methods. I am not here to tell you when to take trades and if the trade is good or not, as we all see price differently.

All I can say is that m5 is looking good as it made a higher high... now see if it makes a higher low...which will be a good sign for your CHF long. Once the short-term trend has reversed, go to the next timeframe up, m15 or maybe even h1 and work out where the opposing supply is to take some profit off the table. You can't go wrong by taking profit of the table... just make sure you leave some on for your little runner... because we will never know what the market is going to do!

Remember, there is no right or wrong... we all do things differently!

Long-term trend is down and it will take some serious CHF selling for it to turn again, which can take weeks if not months.

I am assuming that this is a intraday trade rather than a swing trade.

That's it for me folks... I need to focus back on my day job, called work which pays for the roof over my family's head.

My long-term goal is to trade full-time, but it will be another few years before I do that... I just don't have enough milage under my belt now that I have been trading for 15 months. I simply need more screen-time!
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