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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #1,061
  • May 21, 2011 5:46pm May 21, 2011 5:46pm
my 2 cents...
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TRUST THE PROCESS !
  • #1,062
  • May 21, 2011 6:37pm May 21, 2011 6:37pm
Quoting cablito
hi,

you don't correlate this with gold ?

best regards

There has been a disconnect between AU and gold for some time. Even if gold goes north, AU can head south, which is more normal when market runs bear (to exit out of perceived "risk" currencies and buy gold). That this didn't occur on Friday and the PA on the Kiwi also (given that there is normally no correlation between NZD and gold), does seem to indicate that market is shifting focus.

There has always been some likelihood that market will continue to send AU and NZD north even if the S&P falls over, since they are perceived as much more stable economies without the achilles heels of either the Euro or the USD.

And of course, they both pay good swap. Do think we are in for some highly volatile action, both directions, as this change in traditional behaviour settles itself.
  • #1,063
  • May 21, 2011 6:40pm May 21, 2011 6:40pm
ok, thanks
TRUST THE PROCESS !
  • #1,064
  • May 22, 2011 8:38pm May 22, 2011 8:38pm
AUD/USD still trapped in the broader 1.0500 -1.0720
Trading near those resistance and supports has paid dividends rather than second guessing.

As we look towards this week the US dollar is starting to gather momentum.
Some of my techs are suggesting major fall in euro which will weigh on AUD/USD and 1.0500 support a possible breach.

Im more comfortable playing this off the short side.

Now the perma bulls obviously argument will be higher rates better economy etc...
Well if you probe deeper into the Australian economy all is not rosey admittedly its better than some other economies but thats already been discounted hence why its at 1.06
  • #1,065
  • May 22, 2011 9:45pm May 22, 2011 9:45pm
Quoting lasty
AUD/USD still trapped in the broader 1.0500 -1.0720
Trading near those resistance and supports has paid dividends rather than second guessing.

As we look towards this week the US dollar is starting to gather momentum.
Some of my techs are suggesting major fall in euro which will weigh on AUD/USD and 1.0500 support a possible breach.

Im more comfortable playing this off the short side.

Now the perma bulls obviously argument will be higher rates better economy etc...
Well if you probe deeper into the Australian economy all is not rosey...
The Australian economy has not fundamentally changed. The expectation on the ground is that interest rates will go up, way up. The people there are happy to accept the economic conditions there are currently experiencing, and they fully expect it to get worse. So in fact, they have gotten a sort of reprieve for a little while.
  • #1,066
  • May 22, 2011 10:17pm May 22, 2011 10:17pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
The Australian economy has not fundamentally changed. The expectation on the ground is that interest rates will go up, way up. The people there are happy to accept the economic conditions there are currently experiencing, and they fully expect it to get worse. So in fact, they have gotten a sort of reprieve for a little while.



New call buy AUD/USD @1.0603 - Target hit at 1,0702 .

Robust rate advantages will support AUD stronger.
It is indeed AUD/USD still trapped in the range of 1.0500 -1.0720

Gaining positive interest each day;
It is an investment destination choice for high returns.



Happy trading guys.
  • #1,067
  • May 22, 2011 10:31pm May 22, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting st.forex4677
New call buy AUD/USD @1.0603 - Target hit at 1,0702 .

Robust rate advantages will support AUD stronger.
It is indeed AUD/USD still trapped in the range of 1.0500 -1.0720

Gaining positive interest each day;
It is an investment destination choice for high returns.

Happy trading guys.
Umm China's PMI lower.. tensions in Pakistan and Europe.. US dollar gaining strength across all currencies ..

Australian economy becoming fractured..Under performing stock market... Retailers complaining about slow down.. Property sales slow.. CO2 tax fears and people are now paying down debt or saving..

The smart money is short AUD or standing aside..
  • #1,068
  • May 23, 2011 12:27am May 23, 2011 12:27am
Quoting evelee8
Closed Long 1.0604 @ TP 1.0655 (+51 pips).
it is best to apply short term trading strategy now..
Short term trading:
Long @ 1.0588 TP 1.0670.

Holding:
Long @ 1.0718 TP 1.0719

Asia share price and Australia major Bank's share price fall sharply.
Aussie will not be on the top at least for now..
Key level to watch for: 1.0520 (Bollinger)
  • #1,069
  • May 23, 2011 1:55am May 23, 2011 1:55am
Quoting TheTopBloke
The Australian economy has not fundamentally changed. The expectation on the ground is that interest rates will go up, way up. The people there are happy to accept the economic conditions there are currently experiencing, and they fully expect it to get worse. So in fact, they have gotten a sort of reprieve for a little while.
Read back on a few of my posts in this thread. Those expectations are mis-priced regarding interest rates.

Lasty seems the only other negative poster one on the AUD. I took a lot of confidence in being short the AUD that nearly everyone in this thread and the financial media are all bullish on the AUD. While I cannot rule out one more final peak to 1.1000-1100, it is becoming less likely by the day.
  • #1,070
  • May 23, 2011 2:59am May 23, 2011 2:59am
TO my mind AUD/USD has formed a base for a further drop and it looks like a flag.
Then it is only the second wave of downward movement, so we are still "going to south")))
  • #1,071
  • May 23, 2011 6:54am May 23, 2011 6:54am
what AU will reverse the trend,,?
hunt short position
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #1,072
  • May 23, 2011 7:14am May 23, 2011 7:14am
Quoting evelee8
Short term trading:
Long @ 1.0588 TP 1.0670.

Holding:
Long @ 1.0718 TP 1.0719

Asia share price and Australia major Bank's share price fall sharply.
Aussie will not be on the top at least for now..
Key level to watch for: 1.0520 (Bollinger)
Aussie breaking the Bollinger band level - thus dip to the lower 1.0510.
This is follow by Eur breaking the 1.4000 Support.
we should see further down side of Aus for a little while more...
  • #1,073
  • May 23, 2011 6:21pm May 23, 2011 6:21pm
AUD/USD already testing the support at 1.0500 again..
Break sellers last night probably disappointed in no follow through.
Caution here despite weakness as market appears have found stubborn buyers.
Those who arent already short from yesterday may have to risk some pain on a possible snap back... tricky trading times ahead.
  • #1,074
  • May 23, 2011 10:50pm May 23, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting evelee8
Aussie breaking the Bollinger band level - thus dip to the lower 1.0510.
This is follow by Eur breaking the 1.4000 Support.
we should see further down side of Aus for a little while more...
Expected the Aussie will break to the lower and hit my last month price level @ 1.0478.
*sigh* missed the potential long @ 1.0478 last night.
Sleeping caused money.. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

Portfolio Updates:
Closed NZD 0.7905 @ TP 0.7961 to take profit.
Still holding two long for Aussie.
  • #1,075
  • May 23, 2011 10:53pm May 23, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting lasty
AUD/USD already testing the support at 1.0500 again..
Break sellers last night probably disappointed in no follow through.
Caution here despite weakness as market appears have found stubborn buyers.
Those who arent already short from yesterday may have to risk some pain on a possible snap back... tricky trading times ahead.



I hurt to dead... AUD was going furhter to the south.
Luckily had the SL been set up.

will it be nice to have another call @ 1.500?

Rgrd,
  • #1,076
  • May 24, 2011 12:16am May 24, 2011 12:16am
AUD/USD finding its feet again after sucking in some premature shorts.
Caution was the call simply on price action from last nights first attempt and then todays staying below 1.0500.

Sellers shud come in first around 1.0560-70 then 1.0600-20..
Not chasing this to sell just yet - I sense there are more USD longs to be had yet..
  • #1,077
  • May 24, 2011 8:39am May 24, 2011 8:39am
Priced reached my buy zone between 0510 and 0460, went long 1 lot @ 0500. Wanted to long another @ 0470, but did not reach. If price breaks 0610, I will move my stop to 0550 and let it run.

Regards,
  • #1,078
  • May 24, 2011 9:08am May 24, 2011 9:08am
Portfolio Updates:

Adjusted TP for Long 1.0588 @ TP 1.0670.

US data released - new home sales Up - Richmond index Down.
  • #1,079
  • May 24, 2011 5:18pm May 24, 2011 5:18pm
AUD/USD seems to be capped temporarily under the 1.0600 area.
No standout plays today.. The smart money will leave it alone and wait for market to over extended the 1.05-1.06 boundaries.
  • #1,080
  • May 24, 2011 7:28pm May 24, 2011 7:28pm
Hi all,
here's AUDUSD set yup for a quick 50pips on the buy side. It is 6mins before the news, I always like to use trading systems in the face of economic reports to show whether or not they are rugged.
Enter @ market price, SL 1.0516 TP 1.0608 (2 pips to the brokers) trail the trade by 56pips.
Lets see how it goes.
See chart attached.
Happy trading!
Meshach.
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