Do you still believe in the perfect trading system? | Page 17 | Forex Factory

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Do you still believe in the perfect trading system?

  • #321
  • May 23, 2011 4:12pm May 23, 2011 4:12pm
Quoting willf
The turtles traders proved this. They were all given the same system with the same rules. Some were very successful and some were not yet both supposedly using the same rules.
Yeah, I heard that the ones who were not successful, didn't apply the rules consistently, whereas the ones who shut down their brain and just applied the rules again and again were the really successful ones among the turtles.
  • #322
  • May 23, 2011 4:16pm May 23, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting jag1966
Brilliant post, I couldn't have said it better myself. I agree 100% and I KNOW it is the truth.
I guess there are a few of us here with perfect systems but I for one am not the perfect trader (I break my own rules), hence my winrate is only 85%.

It could be worse I could spend all day posting on FF talking bollux instead of learning how to trade the m5 time frame profitably.

  • #323
  • May 23, 2011 4:19pm May 23, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
I guess you spend all day adding people to your buddy list and vouching for people instead?
haha
  • #324
  • Edited May 24, 2011 2:46am May 23, 2011 11:58pm | Edited May 24, 2011 2:46am
Quoting Custos
haha
haha, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Actually the buddies and vouch list represents the amount of reading and research I have done in order to become profitable, you will notice most of those people stopped posting here on FF.

Fortunately we are allowed to unvouch for people when it becomes apparent they are pretty clueless, it is a shame I cannot work out how to unbuddy a few people too.
  • #325
  • May 24, 2011 1:59am May 24, 2011 1:59am
Quoting Custos
I personally think, that technicals paired with fundamentals can give a high win-rate with high R:R, though I am not sure yet, since it is impossible to backtest fundamentals (mechanically). It is possible to do it manually, but that is of course highly subjective and I might subconsciously influence my own results when researching that manually.
not entirely true...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=250544

i'm sure with a bit of creative scripting you can hack the fundy data out of this and auto backtest fundy ideas. of course you have to deal with stupid shit like daylight savings times affecting chart datetimes.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #326
  • May 24, 2011 3:09am May 24, 2011 3:09am
Quoting nubcake
not entirely true...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=250544

i'm sure with a bit of creative scripting you can hack the fundy data out of this and auto backtest fundy ideas. of course you have to deal with stupid shit like daylight savings times affecting chart datetimes.
first of all thanks for the hint.
I personally distinguish between news items and fundamentals. Or let's say news are in my opinion only a part of fundamentals. News can't capture catastrophic events or political shifts from economic friendly to economic unfriendly policies. In fundamental analysis a lot of subjective bias is going into the analysis itself. That is why I think it is impossible to backtest such subjectivity mechanically.

But anyways thanks for the thread recommendation.
  • #327
  • May 24, 2011 3:22am May 24, 2011 3:22am
I dont believe in the holy grail.
I do believe in a winning system if you accept that losing is part of the game. For me there is no system that will always win and never ever lose. You have to accept that there are sometimes movements in the markets that dont suit your system, your function is to cut losses in such situations and try to ride the market out when its going with you. Easy said, but thats what it comes all down to. Its simple trading and not magic.
consistency wins
  • #328
  • May 24, 2011 6:27am May 24, 2011 6:27am
Quote
I do believe in a winning system if you accept that losing is part of the game.

This is very good. A lot of traders can't accept loss as a part of trading. When they have it, they are trying to find out something wrong! Wrong parameters for indicators, wrong time. When strategy makes losses - something is wrong. Even when they had long winning row!
  • #329
  • May 24, 2011 8:58am May 24, 2011 8:58am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Agree, but apparently its not even needed.

Do I believe in the perfect system? No I believe in the perfect mind set, one that focuses on opportunities and the identification of which. The only systematic part of it is that it systematically adapts to the current situation of the market...

This is what I believe in

Cindy you are completely correct. For instance, how many of us started as newbies with a positive mindset, won a few hundred dollars, then started getting some losses, then developed a negative mindset (kamikaze trading!) and soon emptied our account! You HAVE to (I repeat, HAVE TO) have a trading system or method which you RIGITLY stick to especially when a few losses come along.

rgds
  • #330
  • May 24, 2011 9:15am May 24, 2011 9:15am
Quoting grkfx
Assuming the holy grail is 100% winrate, while being very profitable of course, then yes such a system almost exists. More like 80-99% winrate exists.

The perfect trading system does exists. The only problem is can you get the perfect trader to trade the perfect system?

The perfect trading system is highly discretionary and thus there will generally be a few losses that occur because of the traders false interpretation of the information and/or see things and opportunities which don't really exist.

But yes, it does exist.
Hi grkfx

I sent you a PM - not sure if it was sent - please let me know if you haven't received anything.

Rgds
  • #331
  • Oct 10, 2012 2:17pm Oct 10, 2012 2:17pm
If you define the perfect trading system, or the Holy Grail, as a strategy that wins 100% of the time, of course it does not exist, unless you have unlimited capital and use the Martingale strategy. But unfortunately, no one has unlimited capital.

However, if you define the perfect trading system, or the Holy Grail, as a strategy that wins more than 50% of the time with a reward-to-risk ratio of greater than 1, then there are many sound strategies out there, including very simple ones, that can get the job done. So, yes, in this sense, the Holy Grail does exist.
  • #332
  • Oct 11, 2012 2:44am Oct 11, 2012 2:44am
There are better and worse systems. What is the holy grail anyways???!
  • #333
  • Oct 11, 2012 3:38am Oct 11, 2012 3:38am
Lets define the holy grail :

1-Automated system
2-Winning rate > % 85
3-Relative drawdown < %2
4-Minimum amount of samples > 1000 live trading samples
5-Profit factor >30

I forgot
6-Risk per trade < %2
  • #334
  • Oct 11, 2012 3:40am Oct 11, 2012 3:40am
Quoting olsen-yersen
Lets define the holy grail :

1-Automated system
2-Winning rate > % 85
3-Relative drawdown < %2
4-Minimum amount of samples > 1000 live trading samples
5-Profit factor >30
For a 85% win rate you have to take bigger risks than possible profits. It migh work for a while than a bad beat will blow you up. 100% guaranteed.

What do you mean by 2% relative drawdown? Do you plan to make money until the world ends?
  • #335
  • Oct 11, 2012 4:03am Oct 11, 2012 4:03am
Quoting G.p.
For a 85% win rate you have to take bigger risks than possible profits. It migh work for a while than a bad beat will blow you up. 100% guaranteed.

What do you mean by 2% relative drawdown? Do you plan to make money until the world ends?
It is all depends on the strategy.It could be static or dynamic. If it is static (depending on fixed factors) then it is probably going to lose its performance gradually.If it is dynamic yes it will make money until the world ends that is why it is called holy grail.
  • #336
  • Oct 11, 2012 4:34am Oct 11, 2012 4:34am
There is holy grail. Its in all of us. Never in my trading career the strategy/system makes holy grails. It been always me deciding everything. So, I say YES to HOLY GRAILS.
No Money, No Honey.....
  • #337
  • Oct 11, 2012 9:39am Oct 11, 2012 9:39am
Quoting nesh1069
There is holy grail. Its in all of us. It been always me deciding everything. So, I say YES to HOLY GRAILS.
you have a unique outlook on this topic,I appreciate your brain's thought patterns
To Write Sonnets On Soliloquies In A Fortress Of Solitude
  • #338
  • Oct 11, 2012 1:35pm Oct 11, 2012 1:35pm
nobody is perfect - I don't believe in a perfect system.

Regards
Peganuss
  • #339
  • Oct 11, 2012 8:29pm Oct 11, 2012 8:29pm
Define perfect.

There isn't a perfect strategy in poker, though, on some levels, there are strategies you must follow. Let's say you're a high-roller, been playing in underground game rooms and beating their rakes all your life. Very, extremely skilled, like a living Stu Ungar. When you play with people of your caliber, you will be playing extremely different than if you were playing with low-stakes players. With the low-stakes, people call the set strategy "ABC poker". Meaning, if you run into a loose-cannon, you play tight. If you run into a tight-nit, you try to steal their blinds and play like a loose-cannon.

You have to realize when you are gambling and if the other person is gambling. You have to think about the other person. You're not just playing yourself, or your cards, you're playing the table. (there's skill in poker, though you can still gamble in the game)

Some people don't think about their physical actions when playing poker. I remember one game where the person to my left was an OCD nerd, and this is valuable information. Every time had the nuts, his right hand would shake just a little. I learned the hard way because I thought he was bluffing and pushed him all-in only to give him my chips.

Later that night, after re-upping, the person directly in front of me was running the table all night long. He knew how to use his image and his position very effectively. I caught on this without letting him know that I have any courage or intelligence. (I was 22 and he's somewhere in his late 40s) He was UTG and limped in, and then on my turn, I raised him and it ended up being just the two of us on the flop. He was first to act. He thought for a second after looking at the board, then bet out. The way he bet out with his hand was very vital to me. Usually, he would gently put his chips in front of him, but this time, he threw them just a little. His fingers flared a little and his arm was out there. I knew he was semi-bluffing at the most. So I sit there and think, and think, then say "all-in".

What happened was the he ended up calling and since he called me, I have to show my hand first. I flipped over A10 suited, which meant I had top pair top kicker, with a runner-runner straight draw, but the nut flush draw. He had AJ suited, but not the suit he needed. At this point, before the turn, I'm at about 86% chance to win while he's at the other end.

I made the right play, but lost the hand. I knew he didn't flop a straight because the cards didn't allow for it, and I knew if he had an ace, he didn't have a very good kicker because he limped in from the very start. If he had trips, then I can still play him.

So, really, what the perfect trading system requires is focus, experience, and courage. (Experience includes being able to stick to a trading plan and knowing when to trade plans.)

This probably doesn't make much sense to a lot of you guys, lol.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #340
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:05pm Oct 12, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
Define perfect.

There isn't a perfect strategy in poker, though, on some levels, there are strategies you must follow.

So, really, what the perfect trading system requires is focus, experience, and courage. (Experience includes being able to stick to a trading plan and knowing when to trade plans.)

This probably doesn't make much sense to a lot of you guys, lol.
"Being able to stick to a trading plan and knowing when to trade plans"

Well explained and a thorough conviction,I feel you,break it down for those who would like to know ^_^
To Write Sonnets On Soliloquies In A Fortress Of Solitude
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