Technical Analysis Fallacy

haha , i think ill buy again at 4010s

Hey Taf dudes,

What does it mean " Central bank is sitting on the bid at XXXX levels"? do they want to buy?

Thanks!

selling 4010

Hi all I have been reading this thread for the last couple of weeks. I would like to thank FTI for taking the initiative in helping out us newbie traders. Its a shame he won't be contributing much due to his health and do pray for him so recovers quickly. And I would like to thank all of you who are contributing your valuable time in helping guys like me out.

I was just wondering if someone can clear some questions I have been having. Its regarding skew. How does the skew effect the position sizing. I understand we scale up or down according to the skew. If some 1 could give an example will much appreciate it.

Thanks

im having trouble with this too.

FTI mentions to scale in in fibo progression of 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 ......
that means that for every scale in it takes 50% retrace to wipe out your foreing capital gathered and the average brings you close to market.

im not liking this too much unless im doing swing trading, because it brings my army in too slow.
however, if you scale in this way then its easier to rescue a bad position.

a rescue skew of 1,3,9 would suffice but rescues are agressive and can chop off your head.

if you are counter trend trading and you attempt to rescue you could in fact snow ball your account into a big loss.

so hence my theory that rescues to be made only for bad timing, and with the trend. its safer.

because for a rescue you have to calculate how many troops it would take you to b/e in context of the current market condition, and at a reasonable estimation of retrace.

so to me if im deep in doo doo and trading against the daily trend, then i think killing the scout is less expensive than rescuing him.

others might shed a better light on this subject.

also on the attack, if you fibo scale to close, its like paying more spread for the same crap.

so the way i believe its effective if, if you let every position run and forage,

although.............i'm working on my own scale in method, I dont think FTI method works for me so much.
however first i need to master his, then i can adapt it. i must not criticize or change something i haven't mastered yet.

although some might call my approach a little rigid, the most important thing for me. as i am not a fast dancer im more a strategic player is......direction

direction
force/ strength of the move
time it takes the move
and Range

i can post some charts for you to see what i mean, and i can attempt to explain my method. WARNING: my general is still green, so my method cannot be considered the holy grail or anything close to it. this is how my brain makes sense of things and its subject to change. i use the tools at my disposal to observe and find areas of less perceived risk. i adhere to the ART OF WAR, i believe one should put ourselves in a position where one cannot be defeated and then use the enemy weakness against him to defeat him.

Mamood, and Fana are one of the best dancers i have seen so far so they might be able to help you more than i can

Ask and some one will help u here...


BTw just to be sure have u read 250 pages fully....


V

Thanks Redlion for your detailed reply. cool dp btw. Na the main thing I was pondering about how do you add position more aggressively when you can see a strong move on either way. I was talking about say you use attack seq 1,1,2 now how would you alter this and be more aggressive. How you make a decision on the position size

Thanks indianguyinny24 for your reply. I have read it once before but going through it again very very thoroughly.

Hi all,

I have been reading this thread for sometime and have been very fascinated since the first day I started reading it. Definitely not done with all the posts yet!

However, I would like to ask if this is a thread where I can post trades which I made? Though not sure if I have the courage to post in front of so many masters out there. Thought I ask. Thanks.

regards,
PlusPips

excerpt from the book, maybe it makes sense,

AOW
A book about the engagement of troops:

"Any army can be deprived of the spirit
each General can be deprived of the heart
The fighting spirit is keenest in the morning
during the day waning
evening walk away
Therefore, the best generals
in principle to avoid enemy
whose spirit is the most ardent
but attacking the enemy at the moment
when his spirit is flagging or leaving

Thus we have mastered the spirit!

Absolutely discipline to wait for the chaos
completely silent waiting for the fuss

Thus we have mastered the heart! ...

... mastered the power ... mastered the situation ..."

Rgs

how can we apply this to the market?
the market is keenest at London/ US session, then winds down, asian session moves slow

hour minds are keenest at first and the fatigue sets in so reduce daylight exposure and take a rest then return? or get out and continue when your mind is rested?

it could have to do with price itself, short when after a big up move momentum falters and begins to lose resolve, or the opposite can be said for going long after a big down move when momentum falters and begins to turn

I think it can be interpreted both ways, but to me it means more for attack/rescue. Your mind has to be able to handle it, and you have to be prepared to be glued to the screen for the entire duration of your rescue. Be rested and well-prepared for a long stay.

When rescuing, do not rescue or attack when price is pushing against you. When the price show signs of weakness confirmed by a large pattern ect, then move in. Be advised that this could take a while, but it's important to wait for the move to end. Otherwise, if you resuce or attack while the price is moving against you, then you can get in trouble.

Might also have reference to 3k. Wait for coiling

Forgetting that this is a very old military doctrine....

It's most literal meaning is attack your enemy when he complacent and weary. Night raids etc. Pretty simple.. An army that is tired, homesick, etc is much easier to defeat than a fresh battallion.

Maybe in trading this could translate to:

Don't fight strong trends that are taking out support/resistance levels left and right. (a strong battalion led by a strong general)

Fade only when a battalion is becoming complacent and weary... congestion of bars ranging, etc.

Don't trade when one is tired or other issues are occupying your mental capital.. aka don't attack when your spirit is fading or drained by outside events.

FTI likes the 3 k, as they're the most liquid pair.

i usually look at the 6 majors, GBP EUR AUD, JPY CAD , CHF
i like to take a look at the USDX as well (although its euro based, it gives avery good read of USD direction) as per the art of war,

i try to always enter a the point of less risk, the main thing im working on is making my position unasailable (one may know how to conquer with out being able to do it)
conquering will be my next step
if you know when to fight, when not to fight
if you know the enemy and you know yourself one can be certain of victory
if you know heaven and you know earth you have a victory that is complete

always with the mindset that PRICE IS NOT UNPREDICTABLE.

however i will post charts of my M.O and maybe others can do the same and see if how we differ. ( i have respect for FANA and MAMOOD, fast swift snipers)

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i calculate ATR and current TR to determine whether " its in line with your risk tenure" ---FTI for example for a pair that moves 160 pips/ day, looking at big daily 300 pips can signal strength of conviction in bias.
also if im pickin up a trade and the TR is 150 or so, i will wait for clear signs, (remember the scorpion and his nature?) i will assess if there is any support areas, if price is oversold ( per se, i dont believe that anything can be oversold or overbought but i believe that price moves in waves)

if my daily bias ( i do determine bias, i dont want to become a pig, but i make sure i know what is happening in front, im not determined to go bear if i calculate the components of time, force, speed and its pointing bull. always have to be aware of broad fundamentals and the in context of the market condition and form.

i do use elliot wave for observation but apply it to the major trend, i do not follow it just to be aware
i do use a SMA 12 on both the hourly and the 5 minute ( in the 5 minute it calculates hourly average on the hourly it calculate 12 hr average) i think the return to the mean holds ground, but i do not hope it returns it just gives me a visual read.
as well as visual read of price tearing from it in order to quickly assess thrust.

i look at momentum as well, and i attempt to always trade in the direction of the overall trend.

i'm not able to see price in terms of time frames price is continuous, candles are just price cut in block of time to reflect OHLC for set periods, i trade of the 5 minute but my brain mesures in terms of hourly so i keep that for reference

in essense my screen lets me visualize how the daily candle looks like in real time.
ill post some samples gotta reboot the computer

Hey Redlion,

Your attachments are not showing up. Try using the attachment below the text box. Should work better.

Good Trading
Mike

Close, but not the main reason. 3K's signal from the 3 major financial centers/regions in relation to US..... G.Brittan, Euro-zone,Asian. and in relation to the greenback mark the majority of all movement. Since the US Dollar is the world reserve currency (at least for the time being) it's normal to track the flow from the other big three.

Top 3 sessions....... Tokyo, London & NY

Top 10 cities

1.London
2.NY
3.Tokyo
4.Singapore
5.Chicago
6.Hong Kong
7.Paris
8.Frankfurt
9.Amsterdam
10.Seoul

That list might be a spot or two out of order, it's been awhile since I checked.

fwiw..........

as i said before commodity price, fundamental news, oil, then check USDX the 6 majors, analyse the daily (seems like we are in 5 stage of elliot, however one must not asume but be careful, instead of buying dips as before, im selling rallies) look at USDX seems like a reversal
my split screen the blue is highest price of the day and red is lowest of the day to visualize range, i plot the open price to see if above or below open that is my reference ( i use my charts to visualize daily price movement)
and as you could see i scaled in selling ralies 1,2,3,5 however right before posting, descaled as price is moving upwards i have to reduce risk exposure, if i determine that 1.40 is indeed support and now price bias is upward i will act accordingly

From Redlion's post
"if my daily bias ( i do determine bias, i don't want to become a pig, but i make sure i know what is happening in front, im not determined to go bear if i calculate the components of time, force, speed and its pointing bull. always have to be aware of broad fundamentals and the in context of the market condition and form."

Can you please explain component of time? Do you mean in which market session you are trading in??