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The Newbie System (a faster way to success)

  • #41
  • Edited 8:22pm May 22, 2011 8:07pm | Edited 8:22pm
Quoting jmtini
The main thing is that you DO (this especially applies to newbies) trade the higher time frames. I try to exclusively stick to the 4 hr charts...
Believe me,if there is one BIG thing that I've learned the hard way it's that you need to spend at least 95% - 99% of your time checking out the market, making totally sure of the trend direction and the other 1% - 5% entering a winning trade. Remember, if you're trading the 4 hr charts and you only trade 1 - 3 times a week, you're looking at 150 pips on average. If you are trading a full lot - that's not too bad a weekly income for most of us!!

jmtini, I don't mean to offend you, I really want to know.

Don't you need a huge stop-loss for trading H-4? Something like 100-150 pips? Getting 150 pips per week while risking 100-150 pips every time you trade doesn't sound very attractive to me. If your stop-loss for H-4 is 3 times bigger than my stop-loss for H-1 and we both risk 2% per trade, then this 150 pips profit per week money-wise would be like my 50 pips per week - small change...

If somebody trades a full lot, risks 2% per trade and uses 150 pips stop-loss, then 150 pips per week would bring him $200.00 per week - IMHO it's almost nothing considering 10K account.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #42
  • May 22, 2011 9:11pm May 22, 2011 9:11pm
Quoting Favorite
j

If somebody trades a full lot, risks 2% per trade and uses 150 pips stop-loss, then 150 pips per week would bring him $200.00 per week - IMHO it's almost nothing considering 10K account.
If you are trading a full lot and gain 150 pips, how does it come out to $200?
  • #43
  • Edited 10:30pm May 22, 2011 10:11pm | Edited 10:30pm
Quoting billflet
If you are trading a full lot and gain 150 pips, how does it come out to $200?
What I meant: most of us think that in order to trade a full lot, you have to have $10K account. And if I have $10K, I really CAN trade full lot on H-1, but not on H-4 - no way! So I was talking about $10K account. My fault - I didn't make it clear enough.

If you risk 2% per trade and your stop-loss is 150 pips, then 150 pips gain is ALSO 2%. $10,000.00 * 0.02 =$200.00 per $10K account.

BUT in order to really trade a full lot not on H-1, but on H-4, if your stop-loss is 150 pips and risk is 2%, then you have to have $75K account, which is almost impossible for most of us and which is under these conditions also not very profitable. And since jmtini is talking to newbies, for the newbies it is ABSOLUTELY impossible.

What I mean - 2% per week is what it is: 2% per week...
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #44
  • May 22, 2011 10:19pm May 22, 2011 10:19pm
Quoting Favorite
If somebody trades a full lot, risks 2% per trade and uses 150 pips stop-loss, then 150 pips per week would bring him $200.00 per week - IMHO it's almost nothing considering 10K account.
Wooooorrrrddddddd......

Quoting Favorite
Do the math: as I said, if you risk 2% per trade and your stop-loss is 150 pips, then 150 pips gain is ALSO 2%. $10,000.00 * 0.02 =$200.00
most people would be blown away to get 10% yearly ROI in the stock market...

Do the math...
  • #45
  • May 22, 2011 10:44pm May 22, 2011 10:44pm
Quoting newyear498
Wooooorrrrddddddd......



most people would be blown away to get 10% yearly ROI in the stock market...

Do the math...
Wooooorrrrddddddd......

People who are happy with the 10% per year shouldn't trade Forex...

And although Incrediblle already said "there is no system", I'm still waiting for YOUR system, newyear498...
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #46
  • May 22, 2011 10:58pm May 22, 2011 10:58pm
Quoting newyear498
most people would be blown away to get 10% yearly ROI in the stock market...
Please tell it to the traders who use the "Trading Made Simple" system (hanover mentioned this thread in his post).

They really make good money, NOT 10% per year and NOT even 2% per week.

But they use a REAL system, not just a bunch of clever words. Can you see the difference?
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #47
  • May 22, 2011 11:17pm May 22, 2011 11:17pm
Quoting newyear498
I've also never posted to the systems forum this is the first time..
Yes, you have!

Here is your thread "Consolidation Buyer, System & EA":
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=274293

and it is under the "Trading Systems"!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #48
  • May 23, 2011 12:23am May 23, 2011 12:23am
So, newyear498, what happened?

In January 2011 you yourself posted a system (with the indicators, EA etc.) under "Trading Systems" (by the way, this system's EA showed a huge drawdown, from $32,600 to $19,000).
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=274293

In May 2011 you're saying: all systems in "Trading Systems" forum are garbage, posted by ego-driven traders, who don't make any money, and all indicators are worthless.

So, what happened in these 4 months? A Revelation?

Care to share?
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #49
  • May 23, 2011 12:32am May 23, 2011 12:32am
Another forex myth is that the larger time frames require larger stop losses. This is not an absolute, it's quite possible to enter using smaller stops.

One of the biggest problems I see on these forums is that so many just blindly accept things as being true. Part of the journey of becoming a trader is to question everything that passes as wisdom and explore it for yourself.
  • #50
  • May 23, 2011 12:39am May 23, 2011 12:39am
Quoting Dopey
Another forex myth is that the larger time frames require larger stop losses. This is not an absolute, it's quite possible to enter using smaller stops.

One of the biggest problems I see on these forums is that so many just blindly accept things as being true. Part of the journey of becoming a trader is to question everything that passes as wisdom and explore it for yourself.
That's why I asked jmtini about the huge stop-losses for H-4 trading - because I want to know if it is true, and I want to hear what a real H-4 trader would say.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #51
  • May 23, 2011 3:31am May 23, 2011 3:31am
Quoting Favorite
That's why I asked jmtini about the huge stop-losses for H-4 trading - because I want to know if it is true, and I want to hear what a real H-4 trader would say.
Dopey is quite right! You do NOT need huge stop losses to trade the 4hr charts!!

I never set a SL more then 20 pips when trading the 4hr charts. I can show you some examples if you want.

rgds


P.S. Anyone tried the "trendline break" trading system I outlined in my previous post? Of course it is not really a 4 hr chart trading system but it does work on the 4hr chart of course!
  • #52
  • May 23, 2011 6:19am May 23, 2011 6:19am
jmtini, thank you for the answer.

20 pips SL for H-4 - it is great! I use 25-30 pips SL for H-1, so you must be really good at setting stop-losses.

Dopey is right: we have to keep learning and exploring!

jmtini, I would really appreciate some examples, thank you.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #53
  • May 23, 2011 8:38am May 23, 2011 8:38am
Quoting Favorite
So, newyear498, what happened?

In January 2011 you yourself posted a system (with the indicators, EA etc.) under "Trading Systems" (by the way, this system's EA showed a huge drawdown, from $32,600 to $19,000).
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=274293

In May 2011 you're saying: all systems in "Trading Systems" forum are garbage, posted by ego-driven traders, who don't make any money, and all indicators are worthless.

So, what happened...


I'm under the impression that your being defensive towards me because my first post towards you sounds pretty asshole ish.. please understand thats only the case of internet/reading lacking human expression..

anyways honestly forgot about that previous post to the systems forum.. and I care not to get indulge when you claim I said "all people..." when I really said "most".. cause this is not the wording and bullshit that matters but the main ideas that were meant to be expressed..

you are asking where my system is.. my initial 5 steps are the system.. idk why incredible, you and/or others think a system has to include some combination of the words "enter when the red line turns up and the blob dot indicator puts a purple dot under the previous bar"

I laid out 5 things that could systematically be followed.. first.. understand xyz.. second go learn xyz...
  • #54
  • May 23, 2011 8:48am May 23, 2011 8:48am
Quoting newyear498
you are asking where my system is.. my initial 5 steps are the system.. idk why incredible, you and/or others think a system has to include some combination of the words "enter when the red line turns up and the blob dot indicator puts a purple dot under the previous bar"

I laid out 5 things that could systematically be followed.. first.. understand xyz.. second go learn xyz...
you can't go around telling people to eat healthy, breathe deeply, and sleep plenty, and call it the keys to a successful life. it's a well-rounded foundation, but not a directed plan of attack.

that's why.

what would you expect to happen to any thread opened in the system section that only said "win more than you lose"? you can't hope to enforce ambiguity when specificity is clearly requested. the systems section is not for ambiguity. it's purpose is not to theorize.

anyways. you get the drift.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #55
  • May 23, 2011 9:15am May 23, 2011 9:15am
Quoting newyear498
I'm under the impression that your being defensive towards me because my first post towards you sounds pretty asshole ish.. please understand thats only the case of internet/reading lacking human expression..
you are asking where my system is.. my initial 5 steps are the system.. idk why incredible, you and/or others think a system has to include some combination of the words "enter when the red line turns up and the blob dot indicator puts a purple dot under the previous bar"
I laid out 5 things that could systematically be followed.. first.. understand xyz.. second go learn xyz...
It is SO AMAZING (actually the whole post is so amazing) that I'm speechless and don't have neither questions nor comments...
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #56
  • May 23, 2011 9:15am May 23, 2011 9:15am
Quoting nubcake
you can't go around telling people to eat healthy, breathe deeply, and sleep plenty, and call it the keys to a successful life. it's a well-rounded foundation, but not a directed plan of attack.

that's why.

what would you expect to happen to any thread opened in the system section that only said "win more than you lose"? you can't hope to enforce ambiguity when specificity is clearly requested. the systems section is not for ambiguity. it's purpose is not to theorize.

anyways. you get the drift.
last post was more of an annoyance.. dealing with the he said she said stuff..

@Favorite

my initial post to you I should have mentioned the exponential growth factors.. I don't know how to make a money like the quants do.. but you mention "200 doesn't seem like a lot for 10,000 account" but your forgetting next trade you'll be trading 2% of 10,200.. etc etc.. it just seem like you forgot about exponential growth.. well I imagine most people have logarithmic growth.. but yeah thats not the point LOL


and as for my revelation.. ummmmm... I honestly don't know exactly.. but...

I think it went something like.. hey im being a faggot and posting shit thats pointless and other people are probably doing the same thing.. for the same reasons..

I realized I believed in indicators because of the simplicity and hope it offered to achieve a fantasy income.. and I never questioned why or how they work.. and it seemed kinda stupid.. that I or anyone would not question why or how things work.. in forex or life for that matter.. and then I was like..

and then one day I decided to ask others on a thread "trendlines don't work" and see if anyone else cared to question why or how things work..

and what I found is most people thought I was an idiot to propose such a question... and then I changed... LOL.. like.. what.. im the idiot for questioning why it works... kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk







  • #57
  • May 23, 2011 9:19am May 23, 2011 9:19am
Quoting nubcake
what would you expect to happen to any thread opened in the system section that only said "win more than you lose"? you can't hope to enforce ambiguity when specificity is clearly requested. the systems section is not for ambiguity. it's purpose is not to theorize.
That's a good one!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #58
  • May 23, 2011 9:20am May 23, 2011 9:20am
Quoting Favorite
It is SO AMAZING (actually the whole post is so amazing) that I'm speechless and don't have neither questions nor comments...
another revelation I made a while back via FF.. is that even if I did know the holy grail of trading.. if I told it directly on a thread.. i'd probably be called an idiot or something and few would know how to use such information properly..

just my findings...
  • #59
  • May 23, 2011 9:26am May 23, 2011 9:26am
Quoting newyear498
I think it went something like.. hey im being a faggot and posting shit thats pointless and other people are probably doing the same thing.. for the same reasons..
This one is a good one too!

But don't you think that you should open a thread "The Newbie System a faster way to success" (what a name!) ONLY if you're a VERY SUCCESSFUL TRADER yourself?

Can you teach somebody to be successful if you are not successful?
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #60
  • May 23, 2011 9:41am May 23, 2011 9:41am
Quoting newyear498
my initial post to you I should have mentioned the exponential growth factors.. I don't know how to make a money like the quants do.. but you mention "200 doesn't seem like a lot for 10,000 account" but your forgetting next trade you'll be trading 2% of 10,200.. etc etc.. it just seem like you forgot about exponential growth.. well I imagine most people have logarithmic growth.. but yeah thats not the point LOL
I understand the exponential growth, but unfortunately in real trading it doesn't work this way. You assume that you would get 2% each and every week. But some weeks won't be profitable and some weeks will be loss. 2% - it is the average.

Let's say the first week you make +2%, the second week you lose 2%.

1.02*0.98=0.9996

As you can see, one bad week after a good week, and you're back to square one.

The same with the individual trades.

Let's say you made 50 pips and then lose 30 pips, and 10 pips is 1%. You would expect that you gain 2%. But it is not true:

1.05*0.97=1.0185 so you get only 1.85% instead of 2%

And please don't forget: you can't just grow and grow and grow exponentially, you have to withdraw some part of your profits.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
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