The WoRmHoLe | Page 647 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Better-than-the-wormhole 555 replies

Attachments: The WoRmHoLe
Exit Attachments

The WoRmHoLe

  • #12,921
  • May 21, 2011 8:14am May 21, 2011 8:14am
Quoting nAVIN2007
yup thats what im looking at..1.67 will at the very least be tested again..even if monthly is bearish..question have we seen the end of the dip
Yep - EU/GU monthly currently looking like Dark Cloud Cover imo , however 10 days left and a lot can happen in that time - look at EU ; took just 12 days to drop almost 900 pips . Would look for monthly closes approx. GU >164 EU >145 to negate the DCC formation - easily do-able in 10 days

... anyway , all being well , I'll take it in bite size pieces whichever direction it goes , and don't forget , 167 doesn't have to be tested - all we can do is play the game of probabilities Bro
  • #12,922
  • May 21, 2011 9:11am May 21, 2011 9:11am
Quoting chazzle
Yep - EU/GU monthly currently looking like Dark Cloud Cover imo , however 10 days left and a lot can happen in that time - look at EU ; took just 12 days to drop almost 900 pips . Would look for monthly closes approx. GU >164 EU >145 to negate the DCC formation - easily do-able in 10 days

... anyway , all being well , I'll take it in bite size pieces whichever direction it goes , and don't forget , 167 doesn't have to be tested - all we can do is play the game of probabilities Bro

that is true, actually this trade is more of an investment am prepared to hold 1 year if it needs..mentally i believe im strong enough to do that..its still with the range i been talking about and found support exactly where it should have..where u entered on dailly, that extreme is likely to be seen again..then i think i will place another long..all the way to 1.67

formation in play maybe maybe like morning star..but like u said have to play the probabilities
  • #12,923
  • May 21, 2011 9:25am May 21, 2011 9:25am
Quoting mrluckystar
do you mean that ...
I'd like to answer this as well I hope Nav doesn't mind & I do hope you do not take it the wrong way because you do genuinely sound like you want to learn & I have nothing but respect for people who do not pretend

Quoting mrluckystar
do you mean that next week it will go up? and test MP?
but...
i hav calculate...
next week WP is 16210 and ws1 is 16390. that mean it just outside the WP..
Okay so here lies the main problem, not just with you, most people are guilty of making this same mistake even the seasoned traders, myself included.
By asking Nav if price will go up to test the Monthly Pivot you are looking for absolute as an answer. Nav can't answer you that, neither do I or anybody else in this entire forum.
There are no absolutes, only high probability. And that's what you should aim for, high probability setups.
Okay so, let's go by your calculations. If your calculations are correct & we do open & stay above 6210 W1 pivot, that means selling so close above the pivot is high risk. Second, price on the H1 & H4 had both closed cleanly above the Monthly Pivot Support @1.6204. So you now have price closing above the 1.6210 W1 pivot & the Monthly Pivot Support @1.6204. Guess what, the high risk selling had just became extremely risky.
Remember as I said, we're not dealing with absolutes, only high probability. So just ask yourself which has the higher probability of better trade, selling above 2 major pivot points or buying above 2 major pivot points.

Quoting mrluckystar
the reason i still believe that this pair is still going down is:
first, this pair fail to break at 16303 two times, maybe it a sign of double top?
I've stressed this many times too many people, the double top is a top reversal pattern. This whole week cable was consolidating, so there is no double top. And also, like the head & shoulders pattern, the double top is only tradeable at the break of it's neckline (demand/support level). This is where most people get thing horribly wrong with H&S, double top, triple top. They assume the pattern is tradeable before the pattern completion. Even the "pros" make the very same mistake. Ask Navin if you don't believe me, pros like Kathy Lien & Ashraf Laidi were going on about the cable W1 H&S back in January which was not valid. I kept telling Nav they were wrong, because that pattern was not complete because price was at that time only forming the left shoulder @5900 level & was miles off the neckline which was @5400 level. Guess what, that left shoulder didn't form & cable ended up 800 pips higher.
Remember, these patterns are highly profitable, only if traded correctly.

Quoting mrluckystar
secondly, when it break the inside bar setup in daily tf, it did not go up as usual, it need to close above the wednesday high to confirm it.
Again, no. Closing above or below the container bar/master candle is not a criteria that must be met to trade the Inside Bar/Harami.

Quoting mrluckystar
seems that the captain already been headed with gun by the bull... really scary me tough..

cheers.
Don't let me scare you out of your position. Like I said, we're discussing the higher probability setups. God knows I've been wrong many times before, but I don't make costly mistakes that often anymore. Why?
Because I have absolutely no problems being wrong if I get to save some money or even end up with a bit profit. For example, I was adamant that price would've tanked to 5900 this week after seeing price rejected at the W1 pivot & went straight down & stayed below the monthly support pivot @204. But, did I stay short when price went back up 2 days ago? No, I cashed in, went the other way & bought. Did I stayed long when price stalled at the i/d resistance? No, I cashed in & sold. And I again cashed in when price started to climb towards the i/d resistance.

The point is, having a bias is good, but having to be right is not.
When price is showing otherwise, drop your ego, close the trade & be prepared to go the other way. Remember, end of the day, all that matters is making money in this business, you get absolutely nothing just by trying to be right even time & time again you are proven wrong.


Thank You
  • #12,924
  • May 21, 2011 9:52am May 21, 2011 9:52am
Quoting mrluckystar
hi,

thanks for the gud info..

just wondering, there is a case where it reverse what you said..
if you look at last last monday to wed (9-12 may 2011), the inside bar setup is not valid...

still confuse... pls guide...
No problem my friend.

Can you be more specific please which day candle you are referring to?

Here I have attached the D1 chart to the date that you mentioned. The 9th of May candle I have marked (a), the 10th marked (b), the 11th (c) & the 12th (d).
One look at the chart, one could safely assume that you were not referring to neither candle a or candle b, because b is not an inside bar, because tho the high & low (open) of candle b were within the preceding bar's containment, the low (closed) was not. Candle a had a low (closed) @1.6370 but candle b had a low (closed) @1.6358. So that eliminates candle b as an inside bar.
Moving on to candle c. Again, now althought candle c had it's high & low (closed) within the containment of candle b, it high (open) was not. Candle b had a high (open) price @1.6416 whilst candle c had it's high (open) @1.6517
So this also eliminates candle c as an inside bar.


As far as I see, there is no IB setup during the dates that you mentioned.
You have to remember, and inside bar must have the baby candle's high (open/close) & low (open/close) to be within the preceding bar's high & low (open/close) to be valid.
And also keep in mind an inside bar can be used as both reversal or continuation setups, you just need to see which end of the containment bar (master candle) gets taken out first, top or bottom.
Right now, on the D1 cable we do have a valid bullish inside bar & the only way that formation can be invalidated is IF price takes out the containment bar low @1.6105.

And please, don't get me wrong, even after the long winded post, again I still will remind you that there are no absolutes, just high probability. And candle formations are no exceptions.
The only absolute in this business is minimising risk, ie stoplosses.

Okay that's about enough, I'm burning too much of my brain cells already with these posts lol. Saturday nite baby yeah!

See ya next week my friend. Challo
Attached Image
Thank You
  • #12,925
  • May 21, 2011 10:27am May 21, 2011 10:27am
Quoting wormboy
I'd like to answer this as well I hope Nav doesn't mind & I do hope you do not take it the wrong way because you do genuinely sound like you want to learn & I have nothing but respect for people who do not pretend



The point is, having a bias is good, but having to be right is not.
When price is showing otherwise, drop your ego, close the trade & be prepared to go the other way. Remember, end of the day, all that matters is making money in this business, you get absolutely nothing just by trying to be right even time & time again you...
hi,
thanks again for your advice.. i really need it bcoz im new in this line...

i like your comment about the.
"having bias is good, having to be right is not".., look like i want the it to be right at this moment (the same cause of my failure 1 yrs ago)...

may i know, what is your factor to enter trade?
what can i see is you trade based on pivot, support/resitant on htf and candle stick pattern (inside bar setup) coz i see it in ur chart.

pls guide...
Peace Yo!
  • #12,926
  • May 21, 2011 10:32am May 21, 2011 10:32am
Quoting wormboy
I'd like to answer this as well I hope Nav doesn't mind & I do hope you do not take it the wrong way because you do genuinely sound like you want to learn & I have nothing but respect for people who do not pretend



Okay so here lies the main problem, not just with you, most people are guilty of making this same mistake even the seasoned traders, myself included.
By asking Nav if price will go up to test the Monthly Pivot you are looking for absolute as an answer. Nav can't answer you that, neither do I or anybody else in this entire forum.
There...
thanks man..couldnt agree more
nobody knows b4..u simply have to be comfortable taking the risk/chance to be right!
  • #12,927
  • May 21, 2011 11:33am May 21, 2011 11:33am
Quoting wormboy
I'd like to answer this as well I hope Nav doesn't mind & I do hope you do not take it the wrong way because you do genuinely sound like you want to learn & I have nothing but respect for people who do not pretend

...
Wow man, you've become a hell of a good teacher!
  • #12,928
  • May 21, 2011 2:30pm May 21, 2011 2:30pm
wormboy you from malaysia? i was born and raised there best food hands down.
  • #12,929
  • Edited 12:44am May 22, 2011 12:30am | Edited 12:44am
Quoting wormboy
I'd like to answer this as well I hope Nav doesn't mind & I do hope you do not take it the wrong way because you do genuinely sound like you want to learn & I have nothing but respect for people who do not pretend



Okay so here lies the main problem, not just with you, most people are guilty of making this same mistake even the seasoned traders, myself included.
By asking Nav if price will go up to test the Monthly Pivot you are looking for absolute as an answer. Nav can't answer you that, neither do I or anybody else in this entire forum.
There...
hi,

based on your explaination, it seem that enter long entry is the most probily (low risk) ones..

the reason/point from your explaintion that i can capture are:
1. inside bar setup break at upper (high) side of master candle.

2. price at above daily pivot.

3. price at above monthly support @ 16204.

4. weekly cs perform spinning bottom (i guess..)

but..
there is a one doube from me.. normally reversal trend i can see from daily cs (pin bar / spinning bottom).. but rite now i cant see it...

anyway, based on your explanation... we need to trade with the most probility ones..
look like long is the better option (with SL below 16100) than short...

correct me if im wrong....

pls guide...
Peace Yo!
  • #12,930
  • May 22, 2011 3:46am May 22, 2011 3:46am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Successful people are those who are more right then wrong, not that they are never wrong.

Wormie is doing this from years and does this for a living, and has my utmost respect. I know why he is able to survive in this animal spirited world!!

Trust him and you'l learn loads. Even if your stop loss is hit in many trades, you'll find your balance sheet ends up in profit at the end.

Nav, was talking of pound going to 160 when it was at 150ishh it did hit 160 and more. Now he is firm for 167, and me too. Why? Draw a fib on last monthly candle, u'll know why.


ta
ams




Quoting mrluckystar
hi,

based on your explaination, it seem that enter long entry is the most probily (low risk) ones..

the reason/point from your explaintion that i can capture are:
1. inside bar setup break at upper (high) side of master candle.

2. price at above daily pivot.

3. price at above monthly support @ 16204.

4. weekly cs perform spinning bottom (i guess..)

but..
there is a one doube from me.. normally reversal trend i can see from daily cs (pin bar / spinning bottom).. but rite now i cant see it...

anyway, based on your explanation... we need to...
  • #12,931
  • May 22, 2011 4:01am May 22, 2011 4:01am
Quoting wormboy
I'd like to answer this as well I hope Nav doesn't mind & I do hope you do not take it the wrong way because you do genuinely sound like you want to learn & I have nothing but respect for people who do not pretend


Thanks for the detailed response
appreciate the help.
  • #12,932
  • May 22, 2011 4:36am May 22, 2011 4:36am
Quoting ams
Successful people are those who are more right then wrong, not that they are never wrong.

Wormie is doing this from years and does this for a living, and has my utmost respect. I know why he is able to survive in this animal spirited world!!

Trust him and you'l learn loads. Even if your stop loss is hit in many trades, you'll find your balance sheet ends up in profit at the end.

Nav, was talking of pound going to 160 when it was at 150ishh it did hit 160 and more. Now he is firm for 167, and me too. Why? Draw a fib on last monthly candle,...
hi ams,

im totally agree with you..
based on my calculation, it will hit 17000 area.. only time is the factor..

the question are.. are gu at bottom now?
my calculation said not... my calculation said 15850 area...

anyway, im not going to be correct here...

peace..
Peace Yo!
  • #12,933
  • Edited 6:03am May 22, 2011 5:23am | Edited 6:03am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
No one knows where the bottom or top is, even the one who make the market. You know why? Let me give you a little secret

Banks have order books to buy and sell currencies on behalf of clients at the "best possible price" give or take 100 pips diff from last day, as clients do hedging for good they BUY or SELL to their clients at a certian price. Example: OIL, Cars, exporters, importers etc...

Now imagine if one bank has order to buy £2Billion for a ftse100 company to pay dividends to it's shareholders, the other bank must be having order to sell £4 billion to pay dividends to it's shareholder in dollars , and buy the dollars (think hmmm Kraft who bought Cadbury). Who'll win, of course bank selling pound for Kraft. But both the banks doing the transactions do not know this!! So what they do, they keep Buying or selling until the other one gives up and there is no more buying or selling happening. Also, when mergers and aqisitions happening, you need currency to buy the shares. Based on the size of bid you keep buying currency. Take example of Kraft bidding for Cadbury and another insurance company bidding. We saw price rising from 158 - 168 in matter of 1 month (oct -nov 2009) !! Who could say that we have a bear market for pound that time!! Now the same bank selling pound to 1500 pip low (Nov 09- feb 2010) when Kraft bid was over and Insurance company bid didn't materilzed. Currencies move based on fundamentals and other reasons behind them, you can take the best possible setup based on charts.

Having said that both buyers and sellers want to do this at a best possible price. This is normal market scenerio, in panic markets this doesn't apply as everyone knows to get rid of their positions at the best possible price and herds join the queue as well making it more powerful. Right now, market ain't bullish or bearish and scenerio described by me is exactly happening.

For Chartists, they can only know if a possible support or resistance breaks and keep testing it. We know if support is broken and their is no protection (i.e no buyer), it'll go down vice versa for resistance (go up no seller).

I appreciate your bias towards 160, so was mine but chart at the moment is not telling this, it says buyer keeps pulling the pound off it's lows. Basically what wormie saw on charts. Remember markets are thin, and as usual no one knows where the top or bottom is, not even the one with billions of dollars :-)


ta
ams



Quoting mrluckystar
hi ams,

im totally agree with you..
based on my calculation, it will hit 17000 area.. only time is the factor..

the question are.. are gu at bottom now?
my calculation said not... my calculation said 15850 area...

anyway, im not going to be correct here...

peace..
  • #12,934
  • May 22, 2011 6:29am May 22, 2011 6:29am
Quoting ams
No one knows where the bottom or top is, even the one who make the market. You know why? Let me give you a little secret

Banks have order books to buy and sell currencies on behalf of clients at the "best possible price" give or take 100 pips diff from last day, as clients do hedging for good they BUY or SELL to their clients at a certian price. Example: OIL, Cars, exporters, importers etc...

Now imagine if one bank has order to buy £2Billion for a ftse100 company to pay dividends to it's shareholders, the other bank must be having order...
hi arm,

dont get me wrong...

im totally agree with u..

peace...
Peace Yo!
  • #12,935
  • May 22, 2011 6:33am May 22, 2011 6:33am
hi guys,

look at weekly cs, looks like 2 black crow..

maybe another spike to downward this week...?

i could be wrong...

pls guide...
Peace Yo!
  • #12,936
  • May 22, 2011 6:50am May 22, 2011 6:50am
Quoting mrluckystar
hi guys,

look at weekly cs, looks like 2 black crow..

maybe another spike to downward this week...?

i could be wrong...

pls guide...

please look at candle formations and also forget what looks like and what might..its not impt..what is only is impt

weekly has a doji type formation..that represents indecision:- that should tell u buyers are fighting back and sellers are weaker..not dead just weaker..

so now how can see say three black crows..especially with a doiji type formation..we are not here to tell u where price is going because we cant we only seeing clues and when the market opens..what will happen is only impt and must just go with it..

it may bounce or break..if u dont change the way u think u never going to make money in the market as blunt as this may sound
  • #12,937
  • May 22, 2011 7:25am May 22, 2011 7:25am
Quoting nAVIN2007
please look at candle formations and also forget what looks like and what might..its not impt..what is only is impt

weekly has a doji type formation..that represents indecision:- that should tell u buyers are fighting back and sellers are weaker..not dead just weaker..

so now how can see say three black crows..especially with a doiji type formation..we are not here to tell u where price is going because we cant we only seeing clues and when the market opens..what will happen is only impt and must just go with it..

it may bounce or break..if...
hi..
really hav to appologies to you guys...
yes doji hav form in weekly chart....
looks like it going to north...

guys... thanks... you are great....

all the point already table out... no doubt anymore....

thanks...
Peace Yo!
  • #12,938
  • May 22, 2011 8:03am May 22, 2011 8:03am
Quoting mrluckystar
hi..
really hav to appologies to you guys...
yes doji hav form in weekly chart....
looks like it going to north...

guys... thanks... you are great....

all the point already table out... no doubt anymore....

thanks...
as azim as pointed out b4..the candle needs to be confirmed with a break up otherwise on its own its a 60;40 type thing..there are no definates

yur welcome..stop killin yourself its the weekend brother
  • #12,939
  • May 22, 2011 1:32pm May 22, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting ams
Also, when mergers and aqisitions happening, you need currency to buy the shares...

... Insurance company bid didn't materilzed. Currencies move based on fundamentals and other reasons behind them, you can take the best possible setup based on charts.
Was that Prudential/AIA ? I remember when the news hit the market - "deal on" then "deal off" ... on both moves it got me a lucky escape out of shitty trades on GU by the skin of my teeth ... but best , of course , to not get in those trades in the first place
  • #12,940
  • May 22, 2011 1:52pm May 22, 2011 1:52pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Indeed it was!! Hedge funds bought GU off lows and ensured it doesn't fall at all not even 50 pips when equity market tank'd 200 point one day.

Quoting chazzle
Was that Prudential/AIA ? I remember when the news hit the market - "deal on" then "deal off" ... on both moves it got me a lucky escape out of shitty trades on GU by the skin of my teeth ... but best , of course , to not get in those trades in the first place
6 traders viewing now