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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #25,141
  • May 20, 2011 4:09am May 20, 2011 4:09am
Quoting Gro
Does anybody know this? untested!

http://www.cashbackforex.cz/en/index.php
1. I am not sure if this .cz is related to the following site:
http://www.cashbackforex.com/ , which I have some good experience with them, so far.

I opened my FXDD account first, funded them and has been trading for a few months, then I got to know someone that work with IB (intorducing broker) and can get rebates from my transaction, I joint him by informing FXDD that I wish xx to be my IB, FXDD allowed it and I have been received rebates for months or about a year. Then the rebate get disrupted and finally disappeared eventually about 1+ years later.

I hunt for another IB and I came across http://www.cashbackforex.com/ after some research over the net. I asked FXDD to list them as my new IB, they allowed it. I has been receiving my rebates since then (Jan 2011). So far so good, no disruption. Just not sure how long it will last.

In the whole process, there is no money past to IB. Funding of my trading account was done through FXDD directly. And their payment so far is quite prompt and precise. By 25th of the following month, I receive rebates based on my traded volume in my paypal account. I don't pay a single cent to IB. I think it is worthwile to take a look if your current broker is listed.


2. When I click on http://www.cashbackforex.cz/en/index.php , I realised that there is a referring code behind the URL. I think this site owner is a member of this IB, like me, that was given a referrer ID, which enable me to get a small token from the volume my referee has traded. See http://www.cashbackforex.com/ for details.

So I don't think it is a scam.

Hope that my above info help.

PS: if anyone here wish to be my referree and let me earn a few bucks as referrer fee, please PM me and I will past you my referrer code
  • #25,142
  • May 20, 2011 7:55am May 20, 2011 7:55am
Quoting hcong168
1. I am not sure if this .cz is related to the following site:
http://www.cashbackforex.com/ , which I have some good experience with them, so far.

I opened my FXDD account first, funded them and has been trading for a few months, then I got to know someone that work with IB (intorducing broker) and can get rebates from my transaction, I joint him by informing FXDD that I wish xx to be my IB, FXDD allowed it and I have been received rebates for months or about a year. Then the rebate get disrupted and finally disappeared eventually...

Hi,

not sure if it always has to be that way, but I have read several IB contracts from various brokers. The usual concept is, that the IB is making his rebates from introducing a higher spread to your account.

Would be interested to see that someone is able to proof me wrong ...

Well - it is a different business if you you receive only a "tip-provison" for leading a new customer to a specific broker ...

All the best,
Niels
  • #25,143
  • May 20, 2011 10:52am May 20, 2011 10:52am
Hi Friends,

well - after that shocking actions here this week, I have found my way back to normal now. Let's keep up good work in here, as fti would have probably done it. Cause we have not his experiences and wisdom, we can only try to base all our work on his well layed fundaments. Hope at least some of you join in ... :-)

However - cause I'm on less power only due to my hay fever, I have had only a very light dancing session today. Here is once again my blotter.

Please feel free to ask what ever you want to. Only then, we can all make some progress and have benefits from each other ...

Wish you a great weekend!
All the best,
Niels
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  • #25,144
  • May 20, 2011 1:15pm May 20, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting hcong168
1. I am not sure if this .cz is related to the following site:
http://www.cashbackforex.com/ , which I have some good experience with them, so far.

I opened my FXDD account first, funded them and has been trading for a few months, then I got to know someone that work with IB (intorducing broker) and can get rebates from my transaction, I joint him by informing FXDD that I wish xx to be my IB, FXDD allowed it and I have been received rebates for months or about a year....
hcong168, thank you for your information.

Please, anyone has any information:
about the Australian broker "Go markets".No dealing desk execution and straight through processing.Forex spreads from 0.5 pips and are regulated in Australia by ASIC and hold an AFS Licence (254963).No regulated NFA restrictions.

Thanks
  • #25,145
  • May 20, 2011 5:30pm May 20, 2011 5:30pm
I would very much like to read the thread again but I fear a return to rigidity. In the early stages of the thread we talked about skews and rescues in a rigid sense. At the same time, I fear that I will miss something if I do a search, as I am not reading all the posts from start to finish. Suggestions?
  • #25,146
  • May 20, 2011 6:11pm May 20, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

well - after that shocking actions here this week, I have found my way back to normal now. Let's keep up good work in here, as fti would have probably done it. Cause we have not his experiences and wisdom, we can only try to base all our work on his well layed fundaments. Hope at least some of you join in ... :-)

However - cause I'm on less power only due to my hay fever, I have had only a very light dancing session today. Here is once again my blotter.

Please feel free to ask what ever you want to. Only then, we can all make...
If you have a 590k balance I am very jealous! good work
  • #25,147
  • May 20, 2011 8:22pm May 20, 2011 8:22pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

not sure if it always has to be that way, but I have read several IB contracts from various brokers. The usual concept is, that the IB is making his rebates from introducing a higher spread to your account.

Would be interested to see that someone is able to proof me wrong ...

Well - it is a different business if you you receive only a "tip-provison" for leading a new customer to a specific broker ...

All the best,
Niels
Mamood:

1. I only have experience with FXDD, so I can only speak with the limited experience with this broker. So far I did not see any difference in spread quoted to me, with or without IB (I did trade months before my account was listed under any IB). So I don't think there is any padding onto the spread.

2. Initially I was sceptical about this rebates also, but after noting that no money was past to IB, and I only do some email request etc, I got nothing to loss, so I give it a try. And it works. This is especially useful when we trade TAF style, where the rebate generate can be substantial.

3. I got a feeling that this rebate system will not last long. But even if it last a few months or a year, it is worth the effort also.

4. Just to update: I just received my April rebate in my paypal account from IB.
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  • #25,148
  • May 21, 2011 2:13am May 21, 2011 2:13am
I was reading over the wiki for bretton woods and I found this interesting:

"Triffin noted that if the U.S. failed to keep running deficits the system would lose its liquidity, not be able to keep up with the world's economic growth, and, thus, bring the system to a halt. But incurring such payment deficits also meant that, over time, the deficits would erode confidence in the dollar as the reserve currency created instability"

It got me thinking about fti's lesson on letting go of things you devote yourself to. The US for a very long time enjoyed not following balance of payments, had dominant military and economic position. Yet despite the negative balance of payments in 1950s, we never stopped. Instead continued war and the Great Society plans, sucking up all our reserves. We over extended ourselves, knowing fully our gold reserves could not handle it. We also did not transition well, in a dominate position we did not focus on acquiring more foreign resources. We also did not take into account the fact that fixing prices at 35 is a good MO until the terrain changes. Even when it did change, we tried for over a decade to continue the pegged rates.
  • #25,149
  • May 21, 2011 6:51am May 21, 2011 6:51am
Quoting fullperson
I would very much like to read the thread again but I fear a return to rigidity. In the early stages of the thread we talked about skews and rescues in a rigid sense. At the same time, I fear that I will miss something if I do a search, as I am not reading all the posts from start to finish. Suggestions?

Hi FP,

I would take the assumed risk to become rigid again for the benefit of the many many insight, that you will find on every new read.

BTW: Do you really believe that, when you have fully grasped and embraced a concept, you are on danger to fall back to a lower state of understanding? I can not imagine, that this is really an issue ...

Cu,
Niels
  • #25,150
  • May 21, 2011 2:05pm May 21, 2011 2:05pm
hi all,

i have been reading this thread for quite sometime.....though not participating in it actively.
The bitterness of arguments and subsequent results of events did disappoint me. Yet, i do believe that FTI, if his health permits, will come here to have time with his pals and students. Old warrior never quits.

I am reading the thread from the beginning.....and as per MaMood's suggestion will ask/talk freely in case of problems....

@Redlion! .....I like your ambition. You are one dedicated lion. Mayhap I get the ambition like you.

@MaMood! I still have your live trading session in mind. It will be of great benefit if you could do it.

Regards
  • #25,151
  • May 21, 2011 2:41pm May 21, 2011 2:41pm
Quoting cuthbert
hi all,

i have been reading this thread for quite sometime.....though not participating in it actively.
The bitterness of arguments and subsequent results of events did disappoint me. Yet, i do believe that FTI, if his health permits, will come here to have time with his pals and students. Old warrior never quits.

I am reading the thread from the beginning.....and as per MaMood's suggestion will ask/talk freely in case of problems....

@Redlion! .....I like your ambition. You are one dedicated lion. Mayhap I get the ambition like you.

@MaMood!...
No worries, I'm quietly confident fti is ok and is probably focusing more on his health these days.

You can always try to get in touch with him on facebook.
Strange month both in the thread here, and in the markets as well.
Hopefully all this mischief doesn't turn into a trend.

Rgds, good trading all.
Stay nimble and focused.
  • #25,152
  • May 21, 2011 8:35pm May 21, 2011 8:35pm
that's the thing, I understand the general concepts but they are not yet fully embraced. I think based on this statement itself, I really need to re-read anyhow.


Quoting MaMood
Hi FP,

I would take the assumed risk to become rigid again for the benefit of the many many insight, that you will find on every new read.

BTW: Do you really believe that, when you have fully grasped and embraced a concept, you are on danger to fall back to a lower state of understanding? I can not imagine, that this is really an issue ...

Cu,
Niels
  • #25,153
  • May 21, 2011 9:29pm May 21, 2011 9:29pm
im still taking notes and re-reading,

i sit in front of the screen and study price behaviour
Mamood and Fana, lusan, even lenghsww i have learn from you.

my general still green, inexperienced, does not give distict and clear orders

wants to attack the right flank, finds clever ways to take out the left, then tries an impeccable frontal attack.

works on deffense works on attack, wants to advance in columns then in lines.

so my commander, obeys, then believes the general is a lunatic that will get the army blown in to pieces.

but the commander, the army, and the entire nation BELIEVE THAT THIS GENERAL WILL WIN THE WAR.
let this young general figure out a way, let him continue to try, for one day he will be great !!!

thank you cuthbert for your words.

mamoods dance is fast and swift, my tactics are still in the making but we are all here to help eachother.

im still working on skews rescues and attacks

if i place my attacks in fibo to close to eachther i might as well play a 1,2 punch with less spread.

if i play it the way i have it takes me days to bring the army to battle but its well worth it.

sometimes i think that the scout is a sacrificial lamb, no sense in sending troops into a killing field to save a man.

attack only when in profit
rescue only if the situation is dire.

average down only with the trend.

these have been ideas i have been playing with.

im not so worried about making money at this time, i want to first learn to manage risk. i know some will call me rigid, however i observe the movement of price and do not predict but react.

elliot has much merit in the sense that price moves in waves, although i do not count waves in a predictive manner the 12345 wave pattern is visible in the daily charts, the ABC triagle patters hold ground, in the sense that for every action there is an equal and oposite reaction.

the dow jones theory has some sense to it
EMH blended with Behavioral price movement also holds some ground,
price does have momentum and we DO see acceleration and deceleration on key levels

support and resistance holds its ground
heck i would even say moving averages hold their ground.

never to predict but to understand the battlefield not to clutter the mind but to be aware.

i will continue to study price, and continue to find ways to make my position sound in defense while waiting for the enemy to show his hand.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,154
  • May 21, 2011 9:40pm May 21, 2011 9:40pm
FTI said there are tools, and some work in some market conditions all the time, some work in all market conditions some of the time, but they all serve a purpose to give the trader the courage to do or die

i believe every one finds their nich, and everyone finds their way.

but as long as we are here to help each other and share our knowledge, i believe FTI will be proud.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #25,155
  • May 22, 2011 4:31am May 22, 2011 4:31am
i am so sorry to disturbing .but i can not get the key point of this thread .
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #25,156
  • May 22, 2011 8:48am May 22, 2011 8:48am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
This my Last Posting here...
hello Sir,
i think this is the best decision for your current situation.

thank you very much.
hope to see u post next year, already well recovered.
God bless
  • #25,157
  • May 22, 2011 12:37pm May 22, 2011 12:37pm
Originally the point of this thread is that technical analysis only will not make a good trader. He cites these examples:
-Indicators are based on historical data, and historical data cannot be used to predict future movements consistently
-***Original TA methodologies (which are not predictive) have mutated from their original forms. Fti hopes to bring us back to their roots.***
-Indicators work only in correct markets

Instead, to be a good trader, fti suggests 3 main ingredients:
-Market structure, "you", capitalization

For market structure, read into the link fti has provided to the NY Fed, the Brenton woods agreement and the book "paper money". Knowing who's market it is, who controls it will help you know where your place in the market as a retail trader is.

The development of "You" is expressed in fti's lessons on life to form a mindset conducive to trading. These come from the scorpion story about nature, the monk story ect. His excerpts from Art of war gives us an idea of how to behave in principle. In here he describes the "MO" for trading. In his MO he describes the operational basis aka "the dance" for his non-rigid MO:
-running psychological mindset via AOW, humility to market's whims, checking ego, preventing fear, reacting like water to the changing conditions and trend
-Scouting
-Attacking/tp of attack positions in reverse fibo skew when average is safer from retraces
-Rescues via fibo skew/re-averaged base/cutting loose/leveraged flip/cutting highest position to free up capital for another rescue.
-timing the attacks/rescues via the momentum of the move

As a former scout and via culture, fti advises some very major points:
-always be prepared, having extra troops (ability to rescue with more positions) for contingency
-honor "my word is my bond"
-respect

The development of capitalization I guess involves his rescue MO and the idea of ants work. Building seed capital is a long process.

Fti also mentions some advanced concepts:
-detecting sweeps and manipulation via crosses
-3kingdoms to determine if dollar is cause of movement
-managing all three pairs/conducting rescues on other pairs.

What I mentioned above is from what I remembered. Each point has many many sub points. For example, the fibo skews depend on the volatility of the expected move, and so cannot be used rigidly. In addition, reading about these ideas is good, but will not solidify it. Practicing will make the ideas reinforced. Fti suggests demo on 1-1-1 skew.




Quoting geniusztc
i am so sorry to disturbing .but i can not get the key point of this thread .
  • #25,158
  • May 22, 2011 5:01pm May 22, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting geniusztc
i am so sorry to disturbing .but i can not get the key point of this thread .
Hi geniusztc!
Please, read the first 200 pages and you will quickly understand the intention and the meaning of this thread.
Good trading!
Jaro
  • #25,159
  • May 23, 2011 2:08am May 23, 2011 2:08am
im buying euros , so if anyone is selling here , u r selling to me indirectly
good trading
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #25,160
  • May 23, 2011 2:16am May 23, 2011 2:16am
Quoting maheswara
im buying euros , so if anyone is selling here , u r selling to me indirectly
good trading
Ask! 1,4035 and Come On:-)...

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