vsa with Malcolm

would this be a good example of am upthrust forming on eu 30m?TX

5 mins till close but my volume is too low for an UT.

thanks pres...TX...btw your triggers post was great..i posted a few charts using your teachings..amazing stuff...best regards TX

The market is always testing... one just needs to be able to see what they are testing. Using even just the basic high volume triggers gives us at least an idea on where to look and watch for this testing and or reactions.

i understand..thanks again, TX

Triggers?

Finding entries in there is a bit more tricky for me though..

Just my humble review...

So this raises the question have we seen distribution?

Thank you I think I saw most of those but I liked the no supply bar the best because we had price sort of consolidating triangularly which often precedes a good move.

That last trigger where price was marked up and then just carried on bouncing off of it i love. I think tom williams quotes something along the lines of 'If you observe wide spread bars up on high volume pushing through supply or an old top, watch out for a test of this bar soon after for an entry long.'

And that is great advice...

How was oil for you today Pres? There were quite a few NS as it marched its way up.

Being the only thing I am trading it has been good. Got in short after NY open and then was able to get out and back in long to ride it back up. Another good day to end a good week.

EU

This last H4 bar for this week should close as NS.
Closed longs, there was a good setup in M30, because not 100% sure if acc or re-dist.



Edit: I was waiting that shakeout 3 days, and it went too far what I have thought, and that`s one more reason to close longs.
Anyways, monday and tuesday was good days.

Yeah, good weekend.

4hr Oil chart...

So anyone who trades Oil should not have been surprise at the spot we saw the bounce in Oil today... Demand zone. Possible accumulation over the past few weeks... higher prices in store? Have to wait and see.

Also go back to the last week of Feb and the first week in March... Reaction in this zone as well...

quite an interesting configuration for euro - although very long, today's candle stopped right into support area defined by london on monday - see dotted lines, 4154/4120. that level showed more buying than we saw today so unless 4120 is broken we may very likely see another bounce up.

p.s. green squares show significant buying activity based on daily cycles at the end of a major session (in this case, london and ny, as marked above squares...)

es weakness really showing up now ....

1300 or lower in comng week...

this may take eu under 1.4. Looks like this may have been absorbing demand in the 4050 area , I sure got caught in the chop[ and did not have time to focus ... -240 pip on the week .... one of the most frustrating weeks ever. Most trades went +40 to +50 , missed tp by 10 pip before reversing and stopping me out

oh well overall month has been awesome

and as for es trades .. well lets just say I killed every effort to rise to 1343

ES chart volume is one day delayed on daily , note the no demand day before tankage friday

Funny you should mention EFFORT. Actually, it's not so funny seeing how EFFORT vs RESULT is one of the "first principles" of VSA (and Wyckoff).

Please indulge me here a bit. I had a hard time seeing this today so I am trying to "walk" myself through it. If you have any insights please feel free to add them.

I am going to try and put down what I was thinking then and now so it might be a bit jumbled. Plus it's way past my bedtime.

Okay take a look at the first chart.

The place to begin is with the first No Demand.

A. No Demand: Not VSA, but rather Wyckoff Candle Volume: the real body is smallish signifying no momentum to the upside. The Selling Shadow is equal to the Buying Shadow suggesting a neutral interval. Next candle is down confirming the No Demand.

We're not in a zone so no trade should be taken. Plus with no early morning news event is may make more sense to wait until the cash market opens.

B. No Demand: Okay, The previous No Demand was a "Buying Bar". That is, it made a higher high and not a lower low (this will become important later). This ND is an inside bar-it does not make either a higher high or lower low. It does have a narrow range and close up on volume less than the previous two.

With the Effort to Rise in the background and no major signs of weakness, this could be a test. The market is always testing. Nevertheless, my first thought is that this is No Demand. If it is a test, however, it fails. Which is a sow in its own right. The next interval confirms the No Demand or causes the test to fail either way, the market is weak.

C. Squat: This candle causes some confusion. From a Wyckoff Candle Volume perspective, the Selling Shadow and the Buying Shadow are equal. Again, this hints at a neutral interval. The real body is small suggesting that to the extent that the bulls "won" the period, it was not a strong victory. Notice the size of the real red body in the previous period.

This candle makes a lower low and closes higher. Does this mean that demand swamped supply? At this point I have no idea what the market is telling me.

D. Supply: Here again the Shadows are equal. The real body has increased. VSA tells us that markets do not like Ultra High volume up bars/candles because they can contain hidden selling. Well this candle does close off its high with the next interval down suggesting there was indeed selling.

E. ?: This one is the hardest one of all for me. The first thing to note is that the volume is less than the previous two intervals. So it is low volume.

This candle makes a lower low and not a higher high so it is a "Selling Candle". Now we know that that name is a misnomer but here's the rub. Do we really want a No Demand to trade lower and then close up? That sounds more like the action of a Test. This interval is a bit large to be either of those but it could be a Low Volume Shake Out.

With the weakness in the background, No Demand is most likely. But again, the candle is not narrow and has a large Buying Shadow. Coupled with the fact that the next bar is up. That would seem to make either the Test or Shake Out more appropriate definitions.

F. Up Thrust (In The Form Of No Demand): This is really the key bar. We note the Large Selling Shadow. This Selling Shadow is larger than any of the Selling Shadows for some time. More importantly it is larger than the Selling Shadows of the prior 3-5 bars. And it is larger than the bodies of the prior 3-5 intervals (WRB excluded). Note that the high of this candle is equal to the close of the supply candle. So we are not making higher highs. We can't be in an uptrend if we are not making higher highs.

The real body has decreased. This suggests that the result of the bullish effort is diminishing from the previous interval. We also note that the Buying Shadow has decreased.

Okay, it's late and I'm tired. Please tell me what you see and what I have wrong. I have a clear open mind when looking at the market (free from opinions and prejudice), so I was not looking to be a seller based on Malc's prognostications-however good they may be. Insights now would be most helpful and appreciated.