USDCAD trend reversal?

Cannot authenticate the numbers.
A caller to a radio show ( supposedly a fleet manager) stated that a 1 cent increase/liter of gas cost the OPP $25,000 daily. Flew this figure past a regional cop (friend) & she agreed the numbers were aligned wrt her regional force.
I recall the fuel surcharge on deliveries to my office in the past. Any fuel surcharge on vacation packages?

I know that the fuel $ has impacted my daily driving routine.Has it impacted others? Fast food delivery, public transportation? Your grocery bill?

AND that is just fuel. What about the other comms- corn, wheat, coffee, tea,copper,etc.Was it not the food comms that necessitated the upheavals in the Middle East?

Anyone out there who might give some global fundamental information?

Scarecru,
Your common sense is aligned with reality. The markets are trading off what the central banks will do to the value of paper currency.

With wage growth non existent and job prospects the same how does the bulk of humanity survive.

Bernanke has been the horror of whole generations. This man and his minions have done more damage to the economy then any terrorist could imagine.

But we have to be traders focused on profit and not moralizers. Inflaton bails out governments it does not save the real world. There are no free lunches.

Wealth is created by work, not by printing. The private economy is having its working capital destroyed. Only the largest corporations can borrow at will. Everyone else is sucking air.

How long the charade can be maintained is any ones best guess. In the meantime just trade what your price charts are telling you about price direction.

There are always two sides to any market. For now commodity shorting is a counter trend trade and should be treated as such. When the stop running of the long commodity traders are run. Take profit when price action has no further follow through.

If you decide to trade what your own common sense tells you is going on. Just trade it as a counter trend move. Which it is currently.

One never knows maybe the real world will actually prove out in the markets. There are some analysts such as Harry Dent, who have done significant research on demographics. There is significant support for the idea of commodities being in bubble mode. Debt destruction through deflation being the outcome of all this.

For now the markets believe in an inflation of debt scenario. Also that government will do anything to prevent perceived social unrest from people not being able to afford the latest wide screen T.V.

How nuts is that?

Currencies are political as much as economic creatures. It still is in the hands of the electorate to determine the final outcome. When enough pain is felt, even the most ignorant understand there is a problem.

Hope this helps your trading.

Oh well,
Guess all those Asian currency manipulators, meant to say Asian Central Banks, just kind of slipped up, are now the proud owners of a shitload of Euro's.

Heh Scarecru, maybe commodities will start to trend soon enough the other way.

Still time to look for a bargain. The quants who never look out the window to see if it is sunny or rainy will keep on trading their statistics.

Will always believe there is a place for common sense to be used in trading.

FOTO: as always, appreciate your insight.

Dly pa today was interesting ( just resorted to trading TL breaks on H)

Looking @ today's candle (plus OZ & KIWI) your countertrend comment
appears "spot on" (thanks, your missive cleared some of the fog).

"currency manipulators": You really mean that there are creatures that don't
play fair!

Anyway, keep yer stick on the ice!

After recent strong gains in the USD Index we are reaching technical support levels. Thus would expect a day of consolidation.
Some Fed members as you all would know have been talking up the USD. Presumably to bring stability to world equity markets. But the world markets were largely off overnight.

Beyond the news, am getting the sense that something bigger is brewing from the continued onslaught of commodity selling. There is the rising danger of banking troubles spilling out of Europe as with growth prospects lessened, lending by banks will be more restrictive.
Economic growth is pegged with debt creation, since private capital is depleted by central bank actions, there is little to find in robustness for the private sector.

The test of the .9700 level in USD/CAD will be of interest. Since a breach to the upside would indicate that the market is focusing on prospects for a weak economic future. Which would be over riding the strength of the Canadian banking sector.

I think today is the day, it has had stab at breaking 97, 3 times already this month. If it does not go today price action is clearly showing that it wants to break out. Been in a nice range, but IMO that will be over very soon.

Lots of moves with one step forward followed by two steps back. This is very similar to 2008/9.
Looking for one more final USD/CAD drop to 94.4...., then it can take off on overpriced commodities and especially gold.

Euro/Cad could be interesting. Merkel going along with the choice of Draghi to replace Trichet.

Definite turn down in the chart. May have some good long term follow through, if the price to pay for holding the Euro together becomes an Italian solution rather than a German one.

Weber walking away was a clear change in direction for the German dominated Euro.

4 hour 20 sma has been a decision area on the way up in the Euro. So far same thing on the way down.

USD/CAD eked out a small gain on the dailies. Didn't really have the ferocious selling that normally comes every time Bernanke opened his mouth in the past.

Today's bar doesn't seem to be a rejection or reversal from the .9700 level. Seemed to be just another test.
8 hour chart is in uptrend. 4 hour and lower are sideways. Dailies are just starting to show some buying larger then selling. No real commitment by the market. Maybe just some profit taking after the long downtrend.

May be early for accumulation.

Good luck as the week winds up.

Heh Scarecru what's cooking?

1 day late, there she goes.

Yo FOTO: trouble with isp last night; so unable to post.

Well she closed @ Mar 10 prev support & >50 ema.

MacD > sig/ H2O line with rsi & sto heading up.

Shall watch 9791, the Wkly down TL ( Nov 28-Mar 13) as TP

OZ & KIWI down & E looks to slide ( ab=cd on Dly 3800 3784 200 Dly sma) ab=cd on H is 4060.

Methinks suggest US$ strength this week. But we shall see.

Keep yer stick on the ice.

Monthly



Weekly



Daily


To learn the possible direction of USD/CAD, we can monitor the movement of Oil because of high negative correlation.

Good morning all,
Solid beneficial posts to this thread are appearing.
The more thoughts entertained the better the basis for making market calls.

USD/CAD did some interesting things on Friday. We had the breech of the .9700 level. Not the purists ideal of a two day close above that level, which has proved a significant resistance, but maybe close enough. Can still decide to trade as counter trend move which may evolve into an actual trend reversal. The more aggressive trader may call this the trend reversal.

Obama's abandonment of Obamaonomics, surprisingly reversing his anti drilling campaign. Guess the reality of unhappy drivers who vote has influence. Politics does matter to markets, as it drives investment decision.

The ongoing sell off in the Euro puts the USD back in the drivers seat. Fridays better then expected GDP out of Europe was used as an selling opportunity. This would suggest there is more selling to come as USD shorts now have to cover.
Just three weeks ago if a report such as Fridays had come out the Euro would have jumped 300 pips. Sentiment has changed and that is a big event.

How fast the sell off continues is the next question. Would have expected
some kind of second bounce in the Euro but the selling seems very one sided. The original turn for the Euro bulls was abrupt and never really looked back. The ensuing rally in EURO/USD was likewise very one sided.

Thus I will trade this EURO/USD short the same way. With all the electronic trading going on time may be compressed and second attempts to rally may pass undetected. The nature of markets is always changing, so we have to adapt as circumstance changes.

All in all, whether the market is wiffing a deflationary future or we are seeing strong reaction to a very one sided commodity bubble mania. End result is that on Friday by staying with scenario the day proved out positive. Even though Friday morning the USD appeared to be ready for the usual selling as the US markets came on line.

USD buying appeared pretty much across the board in the all important European US market overlap. This in both the majors and the commodity crosses. Suggestive of the more to come line of thought.

Scarecru

[quote=foto;4617998]


USD buying appeared pretty much across the board in the all important European US market overlap. This in both the majors and the commodity crosses. Suggestive of the more to come line of thought.[/quote


Evening FOTO: read an interesting blog on babypips.com today.

Distillate of Prechter's " The wave principle of human social behaviour & the new science of socionomics".

Title of piece was "If markets follow mood, watch out below".

S&P wkly suggests bear market rally. Point 2 was US$ is negatively correlated to global markets

Too much conjecture re: DSK & IMF conspiracy.

Watching 9685 ( prev supp Mar 9) & 9783 ( Wkly down TL Nov 28-Mar 13).
Break of either is my trade.

Feel like a chambermaid- will the market respect me or was I just screwed?

Evening to you Scarecru,
Just stopped by to check the site. Went flat on my USD longs after the close.

Thought there should have been some better follow through after the powerful USD buying that came out of Europe this morning.

I think a sovereign is dumping USD through the morning and is trying to weaken the USD after the London close and right on into tonite.

The stock market does not like a stronger USD and the S+P rallied a bit today, off its low, with the weaker afternoon USD.

Am believing that the USD will be knocked down some for the next few days in the effort to get the stock markets to rally again.
By now you should be aware I do subscribe to believing that much manipulation occurs. Whether or not any one else does is really irrelevant, as it helps me to trade better. We all have our quirks.

The Tokyo market will confirm if we have a rally in equities. And the buying of things such as Euro/YEN over the next few days.

This will give the opportunity to go long USD at a better price.

USD/CAD looked weak today as well, so am thinking it is a bit extended. The chart shows the 20 sma is starting to turn up on the dailies so expect a retrace to that level. If it holds when price goes to it, will buy USD/CAD again.

The B.S. in Europe may cause a rally as USD bears are not vanquished and will take this as a place to start selling again. USD bulls are still a minority
so we can wait for retracements this early in the move.

Have read Prechter do not really understand Elliot wave, but do watch for legs in a move. But watch them as a way to measure trend strength.

During moves find that they vary in power. As they get more and more extended there is more consolidation and then comes the turn. Looked that way to me today.

Even a sovereign cannot stop a market, but if the market is not strong then it will react to manipulation.

That's my thoughts tonight. Hope you put something away from the move.

CAD news Fri should provide direction.

Dly $ < prev support Mar 9. 9631 next target ( Apr 3 supp).

Comms (corn, wheat, soybean)should rise due to weather difficulties.

Core CPI m/m
Oc = forecast
Sk = actual

http://www.apbgame.cz/iddqd77/forex/USDCAD_Core_CPI.jpg

I am long for today

http://www.apbgame.cz/iddqd77/forex/...tail_Sales.jpg