Silent Service Method

EUR/USD looks to be holding by the way.....

Very quiet day in the market today. Looks like the USD/CAD is ripe to fall, as we rose, and are struggling. However, we need to see a clean break of the 0.97 level to be assured of the move. It is with the trend though, and that is a large help as usual.

The EUR/USD is still holding above the 1.40-1.42 support area, albeit in the early innings as it were. The currency could be the most dangerous to play as the Greek situation unfolds. However, it is often in places like this where you find the best trading opportunities.

Oil bounces today, and finds support at $95 - this is why USD/CAD is so interesting to me.

Flat number on crude inventories in the USA - they were expecting a build.....this means oil is rising. So.....that USD/CAD technical set up looks even more interesting now.

Following up on the earlier post, the price of ASMI dropped (as did the entire stock index .)
Anyway, now we're at ~1.2 RR.

Are you rich yet??????

By the way, anyone else see the IPO of LinkedIn today? Can you can bubble. Unfortunately there is no way to short it at the moment.....

Here is a fun teaser -

I am looking at a possible scenario that has the AUD/USD at 1.20 before it is all said and done. Anyone want to guess why?

Great post I saw today on yahoo....

They should ask the union leaders to divide the budget and explain it to the public … but they should read the story first – here we go ….

THE TAX SYSTEM EXPLAINED IN BEER

Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that's what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve ball. "Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20." Drinks for the ten men would now cost just $80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his fair share? They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer.

So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by a higher percentage the poorer he was, to follow the principle of the tax system they had been using, and he proceeded to work out the amounts he suggested that each should now pay.

And so the fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% saving).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% saving).
The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28% saving).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% saving).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% saving).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% saving).

Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But, once outside the bar, the men began to compare their savings.

"I only got a dollar out of the $20 saving," declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, "but he got $10!"

"Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got ten times more benefit than me!"

"That's true!" shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get $10 back, when I got only $2? The wealthy get all the breaks!"

"Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison, "we didn't get anything at all. This new tax system exploits the poor!"

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had their beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important – they didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, boys and girls, journalists and government ministers, is how our tax system works. The people who already pay the highest taxes will naturally get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas, where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

by - David R. Kamerschen, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics
For those who understand, no explanation is needed.
For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.

Wow.....
i better take up BEER DRINKING now ..with 9 of my friends..and see which one of us gets beaten UP !!!..
a simple Story...BUT so TRUE..
thanks Chris.... i will bring my tax return when i have beer with you....!!

baz

1. Australian RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) about to raise official interest rates again (Currently 4.75%) whilst the US print money and have a zero interest rate. Makes for a great carry trade!

2. Australian economy is largely commodity based and a large gold and silver producer.



3. Australia has no Goldman Sachs (though we do have macquarie bank) LOL.


4. The reasons are too many to list


5. Oh and I forgot to add. We are the Lucky Country.


Caution though!!! If $1.20 or higher is reached which is possible and the way things are progressing probable. The fall when it's all resolved will see the Aussie Kanga dollar fall faster than a freight train down a mine shaft.


A51

New video up on the blog.

We aren't there yet - but this pair is looking like a flag waiting to happen.....although, I have to admit the reasons listed above make a hell of a lot of sense!

Looking at this chart today, it is still pushing towards the down trend line on the top of the potential flag. The AUD certainly has my attention now.

I have been trying to be a little more diligent about tweeting during the day, making sure I share thoughts as they come. My Twitter has been moved to the name "TheTraderGuy" which can be found on the blog. I am going to be making a lot of announcements in the near future on that format as well, and invite you all to check it out.

Chris

EUR/CHF looks absolutely terminal.

I wish I had written this: http://www.vanityfair.com/society/fe...?currentPage=1

Unfortunately I didn't, but I am 100% sure that Stiglitz is right in what he expresses in that article.

Read it and weep Professor Kamerschen

For those of you in Europe.......F1 ex-champ Kimi Raikkonen came over to the US and ran in the third tier of NASCAR last night in the Charlotte Truck race - finished 15th out of 36. Not a bad showing considering he has never driven one. It looks like he is seriously considering trying to get involved in NASCAR's top series. I always was a Kimi fan - especially when he was at McLaren. His teammate at McLaren Juan Pablo Montoya has been running here for a few years, and with a little luck they will be reunited.

He's ok but there will never be anyone like Ayrton Senna again.

(And please don't suggest that wurst-eating shoemaker - he's not in the same league. Nobody is, except perhaps Nigel Mansell who had enough talent to match up against Senna, but his... ahem... weight issue...)

When Senna crashed and died F1 lost its greatest ever driver, unmatched to this day. If you don't believe me, check out some old F1 races and you will see.

He would have won any NASCAR race any day

I am familiar with Senna. But to be honest - a lot of the F1/Indy guys struggle because the cars are so much heavier. Plus, this rednecks can draft (slipstream) within a half an inch at 190 miles per hour. And no - I hate Schumacher just because he ruined that one season where he won 17 of 18 races. What a yawn-fest that was.

I used to like F1 a lot more to be honest, but there isn't enough passing during the races anymore......

Completely agree, I hardly watch F1 anymore because of that exact reason.