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Thinking Outside the Box!?!

  • #201
  • Edited 2:51am May 18, 2011 2:45am | Edited 2:51am
question for those who feel / believe / whatever that they have had a realization that is 'outside of the box'.

there is a lot of text on trading, and for the most part it all resonates badly with me and i see glaring flaws. a lot of it seems to be based on hope (hope that the method keeps working because there is no reason for it to work or not work). it's all same same just different.

getting to a point of thinking outside of this box, what does it take to get to this point in time? does it take hitting your head against the wall for 10,000 hrs until parts of your brain give up and turn-off which reveals a new thinking pathway? is it a seemingly random inspired thought that occurs from nowhere?

it's like we are all writers stuck in writers-block. a few have found their muse and been inspired to greater results. a few think they have found their muse and are producing muppet results. a few are still just poncing around breakeven or worse (like me).

anyone can be told about the latest greatest ma cross no stoploss method. but, can anyone be told the process of how to elevate themselves to a higher level of thinking and perspective?

"thinking outside of the box 101 : for dummies".

i've heard once or twice that the progression for traders is in general along the lines of firstly being completely garbage and as unprofitable as possible, then they get a little better, then they float close to break-even, and then finally inspiration hits them and rockets them to great profits and are finally true traders.

if this is the case then how does one push past that breakeven stage... this is where i am close to and want to break through to the other side.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #202
  • May 18, 2011 6:59am May 18, 2011 6:59am
First you need to define what the box is to understand it.

The box is everything you've been taught about trading from so called professionals. Who are these supposed pros?

Analysts
Forum boarders
Brokers
Gurus
Book writers
Gods gift to FX traders everywhere

When you realize most of these aren't right even 70% of the time the box definition will become more clear to you. If you can't hit 70% (of being right) the odds are stacked very heavily against you.

Once that you define the box of what you are doing... this amounts to profit taking, stops, whether to take a trade or not, whether to sit or look for next set up, whether to hang onto a loss or take the loss etc.

What parts of "your" box are working? If you can't tell what's working then replace it all by stepping outside of everything you think you know to be true.

That is stepping outside the box. Not trusting in what someone else says to be truth and coming up with your own solution to the problem.

Once you boil everything away... risk will be the only thing that remains.
  • #203
  • May 18, 2011 7:35am May 18, 2011 7:35am
Quoting pip_seeker
That is stepping outside the box. Not trusting in what someone else says to be truth and coming up with your own solution to the problem.
^^^ This.
  • #204
  • May 18, 2011 7:37am May 18, 2011 7:37am
Quoting nubcake
if this is the case then how does one push past that breakeven stage... this is where i am close to and want to break through to the other side.
This is exactly where im at as well.

And me personally i find it very very hard to "define" what IS high probability vs. low probability.

I think this is where knowing when to fold comes in and only taking the 'ripe setups'. Yet for me, i still cant 100% pin point it
  • #205
  • May 18, 2011 7:52am May 18, 2011 7:52am
Well said, pip seeker.

Without a working definition of "the box", I can imagine at least 5 boxes that can be part of this analysis. The idea that the box is determined by what works for each trader makes more sense. Unfortunately, that assumes that a prospective trader can achieve some level of success with (or even understand) the various aspects of trading (and being a trader) to know enough to step away to re-evaluate what they are doing. That is one of the critical success factors of trading, where the trader has sufficient character to do those things. Put another way, all successful traders have this character quality to do this, and all non-successful traders lack this character quality and thereby fail to do it.
  • #206
  • May 18, 2011 7:59am May 18, 2011 7:59am
ignoring what others say to do is kind of a given though, at least once you start to realize a few things. it soon becomes apparent the flaws in most publicized ways to go about this puzzle box. forex is honestly depressing as it reveals the lack of intelligence amongst society as a whole.

so, on one hand i watch and read to further confirm who and what is full of time-wasting nothing, but on the other hand i do not know how to find my own inspiration for something new.

or in summary : everyone else has created the wheel, but their wheels are all triangles and squares. i'm unsure how to unlock my own inspiration to create the circular wheel that actually works as intended.

sadly, half seriously, i think perhaps my own personal best bet is to go back to being badly sleep-deprived (and maybe mix a bourbon in there too). perhaps it only seems this way to me, but i feel my best work and most focus is when i'm half unconscious / half asleep. some of my better programming results have been when extremely tired and on fumes. i believe this is due to not having the energy to be distracted with anything else and my focus reduces to the point of just the task at hand.

i had a break-through a few months ago and could produce a profit over and over repeated simulations. was very tired at the time and literally was about to sleep before "one last try" become repeatable simulated easy profits. after sleeping it off i hadn't been able to reproduce this a single time (using the exact same charts) until just recently after months of head scratching. i'm trying to explore ways to make something of what might just be a fluke, but it's seemingly not a simple task to refine / enhance / make something of. it's a bit hit and miss, and as crucial point might say it seems to be just that one degree of difference that changes everything.

i'm not sure what that 1 degree is though. maybe it really is just a fluke.

/rant
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #207
  • May 18, 2011 9:40am May 18, 2011 9:40am
Quoting nubcake
ignoring what others say to do is kind of a given though, at least once you start to realize a few things. it soon becomes apparent the flaws in most publicized ways to go about this puzzle box. forex is honestly depressing as it reveals the lack of intelligence amongst society as a whole.

so, on one hand i watch and read to further confirm who and what is full of time-wasting nothing, but on the other hand i do not know how to find my own inspiration for something new.

or in summary : everyone else has created the wheel, but their wheels are...
Not sure I agree there. There are many people who should deffinately NOT be ignored here on FF. Many are brilliant traders and even take the time and effort to teach people if they are willing to LISTEN and learn.

I know you have worked extremely hard at this so no dis meant at all.
  • #208
  • May 18, 2011 9:59am May 18, 2011 9:59am
no doubt there are members working hard. they don't have the answers i seek though. or it's not presented in a way that ignites in my head. there are certainly some people working some deep stuff here that is beyond me, and may or may not bear them fruit.

ima go back to banging my head against the wall and see what sticks

oh and pipalicious... whatever you do, do not forget to make some form of record if you find yourself sim'ing profits instead of floating breakeven for once. the biggest mistake i made when i had some type of light-bulb moment was i didn't think to record the specific trades taken for study and reference. i made notes on my notepad, but the actual trades were lost.

this time i save a template so i can always go back and look over what i was doing. don't let something potentially profitable slip away in the wind, or in my case slip away in my sleep.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #209
  • May 18, 2011 12:09pm May 18, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting nubcake
oh and pipalicious... whatever you do, do not forget to make some form of record if you find yourself sim'ing profits instead of floating breakeven for once....
Ye cheers mate. I must say ive been stung there a few times as well, not writing down or 'screenshoting' observations/patterns in wins/losses.

Something ive personally noticed that currently 'seems' to be working is that instead of varying my SL size I make it constant. Each trade with the same amount of SL size and trailing profits.

Somehow this 'consistency' (though against common recomendations) seems to be one piece to my puzzle.

Cheers for your advice
  • #210
  • May 19, 2011 6:45am May 19, 2011 6:45am
Quoting GEfx
Well said, pip seeker.

Without a working definition of "the box", I can imagine at least 5 boxes that can be part of this analysis. The idea that the box is determined by what works for each trader makes more sense. Unfortunately, that assumes that a prospective trader can achieve some level of success with (or even understand) the various aspects of trading (and being a trader) to know enough to step away to re-evaluate what they are doing. That is one of the critical success factors of trading, where the trader has sufficient character...
The only reason I have this definition is because I struggled with the same thing(s) years ago. Everyone and anything in my ear about the "new thing" or "new flavor of the month."

The unfortunate part (to me) is that not everyone can be a successful trader... (Unless you are able to put away your emotions and your ego.)

Something that has stuck with me thru the years is quite simple and I remind myself of this often.

The difference between a successful trader vs. an unsuccessful trader: A successful trader will do what an unsuccessful trader can't and won't do.

So this is the question to ask yourself: Is there anything I won't do to become successful at this? If there is I can simply tell you trading is not for you. I have seen countless people quit... you have to be in it to win it as like anything else you try to do.

There are litterally hundreds of things easier than trading FX AND WINNING. Remember anyone can trade --- but trade and win is totally different animal.
  • #211
  • May 19, 2011 6:50am May 19, 2011 6:50am
Quoting nubcake
so, on one hand i watch and read to further confirm who and what is full of time-wasting nothing, but on the other hand i do not know how to find my own inspiration for something new.
A word of advice: Stop looking for something new and look for something that works while keeping in mind that nothing is perfect... they call this non-perfection: risk.

Once you know your risk you should start to realize something.
  • #212
  • May 19, 2011 7:01am May 19, 2011 7:01am
Quoting pip_seeker
Something that has stuck with me thru the years is quite simple and I remind myself of this often.

The difference between a successful trader vs. an unsuccessful trader: A successful trader will do what an unsuccessful trader can't and won't do.

So this is the question to ask yourself: Is there anything I won't do to become successful at this?
100% agree. Your statement underscores my contention that character counts in successful trading. It's one of the things that is found outside the box.
  • #213
  • May 21, 2011 8:56am May 21, 2011 8:56am
Quoting jag1966
Spot on. What may look like a perfectly valid trend on the lower timeframes will most likely be just a retracement / pullback / profit taking on the higher timeframes.

Swissy was the perfect example on Friday.

As at 8am gmt.

I knew the monthly trend was down yet Mays candle is bullish / green. Long bias.

The weekly candle was also bullish / green. Long bias.

Thursdays daily candle closed red / bearish (profit taking) but we were in a strong bullish pullback / swing at about 38% (I don't trade fibs but you have to look at what...
Love you analysis jag1966
"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #214
  • May 22, 2011 9:22am May 22, 2011 9:22am
That was a entertaining thread's read. A lot of nice advice and things to consider but nothing out of the box.

Maybe the real pros actually just trade what is in the box successfully and let the herd wonder about what's outside the box.

Just like when you see a moving average crossover on the daily and the macd histogram turns up positive.

While we ( the herd ) are considering that this is a fake setup and try to work out how to fade it. The pros step in and buy and it rallies for one month and 1000 pips.

Maybe the herd mentality is just too clever for its own good ?
  • #215
  • May 22, 2011 9:31am May 22, 2011 9:31am
Quoting ozpips
That was a entertaining thread's read. A lot of nice advice and things to consider but nothing out of the box.

Maybe the real pros actually just trade what is in the box successfully and let the herd wonder about what's outside the box.

Just like when you see a moving average crossover on the daily and the macd histogram turns up positive.

While we ( the herd ) are considering that this is a fake setup and try to work out how to fade it. The pros step in and buy and it rallies for one month and 1000 pips.

Maybe the herd mentality is...


So basically you read through this forum and constructed your own conclusion and this post you made is pretty impressive because IMO it looks like you learned a lot.. thats a pretty good concepts you have

and I apologize as this thread led to little if any outside box type ideas.. but none the less trying to think outside the box has had some good posts.. I should have been clearer.. its kinda a misleading thread Insightful thoughts is more the route I suppose...
  • #216
  • May 22, 2011 9:46am May 22, 2011 9:46am
How good or bad this thread is puts you in one group or the other. The two groups being the Unsuccessful and the successful.

You started reading the thread to hope to gain insight to become successful as you might not know what kind of mindset is required to be so.

It is possible to have another outcome such as the middle --- neither unsuccessful or successful just in the middle somewhere.

If you can't or won't do certain things this thread, nor thousands of others will help you. Anyone can make excuses, but when you make excuses guess which group you belong to?

But we live in an age where no one wants to work, they expect everything for free, no effort, government bailouts, government support etc. They would rather believe a scam as truth, if they didn't we wouldn't have countless $billion dollar rip-off artists being arrested.

Go ahead tell me I'm wrong.
  • #217
  • May 22, 2011 9:49am May 22, 2011 9:49am
been a while since I posted but its summer soon so I'm around more often

In my opinion the objective of forex from my standpoint is to make profit.. and like war (im a strategy game player.. and ex MP.. and interested in strategy).. and your objective in war is victory.. not a lengthy campaign so to me..

well what I find is most people are making it there objective to get rich by scalping on minute increments.. which to me is a lengthy and tiresome campaign..

rather I've adapted the victory approach and more higher TF.. or really calculated goal of victory.. or to profit.. and have adjusted to trading few times a year..

its like waiting for the enemy to walk into my ambush and it takes a while but when it happens I usually win every time..

and its not a bitch like being humped over the monitor for hours watching ticks and defeating my morale

but rather to achieve victory.. to be at peace rather than peril.. not have lengthy operations..


I dont see many trying this though.. like I said I see FF as a outlet for scalpers..

I find scalping kinda like a war of attrition.. and the fact is most wars are won by Maneuver warfare if you look back on historical records...
  • #218
  • May 23, 2011 4:16pm May 23, 2011 4:16pm
This thread gets to caught up over finding a full scale "out of the box system" or so I fear...


I would be happy enough to just hear some out of the box ideas on identifying which way the market will go in the near future or session


any thoughts!?! or maybe another smaller scale out of the box topic.. challenge other ideas rather than a complete picture
  • #219
  • Edited May 24, 2011 12:22am May 23, 2011 4:22pm | Edited May 24, 2011 12:22am
Quoting newyear498
This thread gets to caught up over finding a full scale "out of the box system" or so I fear...


I would be happy enough to just hear some out of the box ideas on identifying which way the market will go in the near future or session


any thoughts!?!
This thread should die, it has been said before, stop trying to reinvent the wheel, many people here make money INSIDE the box, if you cannot do it TRY HARDER.

End OF.
  • #220
  • May 23, 2011 4:23pm May 23, 2011 4:23pm
Quoting jag1966
This thread should die, it has been said before, stop trying to reinvent the wheel, many people here make money INSIDE the box, if you coannot do it TRY HARDER.

End OF.
The tribe had spoken
Time hides Nothing
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