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What do you absolutely know about the Market?

  • #21
  • May 18, 2011 11:57pm May 18, 2011 11:57pm
Quoting utjuph
Particularly love the final phase of your statement.

everything about market lies before your eyes. Techies or fundies, it's just your own perception of how market will behave. Repeat, YOUR OWN!

Regards,
utjup & Venice,
Completely second on that
  • #22
  • May 19, 2011 1:38am May 19, 2011 1:38am
Even great money management (and every other trick in the book) won't save your account if you do not have a method that is statistically proven to be profitable over a large sample of trades (i.e. an edge).

...and following on from that..

The needle is in one enormous haystack!
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst
  • #23
  • May 19, 2011 1:56am May 19, 2011 1:56am
Simple- the market will move every day

except saturdays, and thank god it doesnt!
  • #24
  • May 19, 2011 2:20am May 19, 2011 2:20am
There are probably an infinite number of ways to trade currency markets, all of which are TRICKY (!!) so be prepared with good stoploss.

BTW, I think I have studied a couple a hundred ways, all of which have tricked me!!
Good Trading to All ---- fairwind
  • #25
  • May 19, 2011 4:03am May 19, 2011 4:03am
There are far more ways to increase your equity than there are to lose it.
  • #26
  • May 19, 2011 5:21am May 19, 2011 5:21am
Quoting mr.marketz
There are far more ways to increase your equity than there are to lose it.
you must be a trading genius, cause as far as I can see there are far more strategies that will lose you money.
  • #27
  • May 19, 2011 5:23am May 19, 2011 5:23am
Important areas of "Support and Resistance" are worth looking for and planning a trade around....any time frame

Dane
  • #28
  • May 19, 2011 5:40am May 19, 2011 5:40am
The higher the timeframe you look at is, the clearer and more understandable the price movement is, and the more reliable the indicators are. In most of the cases at least...
  • #29
  • May 19, 2011 5:41am May 19, 2011 5:41am
Quoting Custos
you must be a trading genius, cause as far as I can see there are far more strategies that will lose you money.
Strategies don't lose you money... over leveraging, and the inability to take a loss do.
  • #30
  • May 19, 2011 5:55am May 19, 2011 5:55am
Quoting mr.marketz
Strategies don't lose you money... over leveraging, and the inability to take a loss do.
I personally disagree, but I respect your opinion.
  • #31
  • May 19, 2011 6:12am May 19, 2011 6:12am
the deep understanding of market microstructure and sentiment will shed light on why price turned at certain levels. its as if the outcome is inevitable.
  • #32
  • May 19, 2011 6:14am May 19, 2011 6:14am
I appreciate that, Custos.


Just to clarify quickly, not trying to clutter the thread...

If you take any of the strategies found in "The Systems" portion of the forum and applied it to a reasonable time-frame (since lower time-frames create similar characteristics to over leveraging), then anyone of those systems would at the worst case scenario, flat line an equity curve.

Believe it or not, most of those systems are extremely logical and very efficient. The biggest problem I see is that everyone wants to cash in on the next signal within the next 5 minutes.

A lot of this is probably semantics at the end of the day, but from what I've seen over the years is that failure hinges on the two things I initially posted (and by no means am I a trading genius).

If you trade small amounts on larger time-frames, and have decent r/r ratios (which you actually respect and execute when the trades go south), then even the worst strategies found at FF would take an awfully long time to kill an account.

Anyways, that's what I know about the market. I'll step aside and let the posts keep coming in... I think we may get some real gems here.

Peace
  • #33
  • May 19, 2011 6:18am May 19, 2011 6:18am
You dont need a trend nor a range to profit from.

All you need is movement, which happens every day non stop.
  • #34
  • May 19, 2011 6:19am May 19, 2011 6:19am
Quoting eurotrash
When I saw this thread last night, I absolutely knew most of the responses would be subjective beliefs rather than factual knowledge... and I was right.
No offense, but from the philosophic point of view, there is no factual knowledge. The only thing we know is that we know nothing for sure. Therefore, I think the point of the thread is for everyone to tell what THEY THINK is MOSTLY true about the market.

Yes, you were right, these are all subjective beliefs, but if there were any facts which ppl can rely on for 100%, everyone would be rich.

I don't want to argue, please don't take it that way, I am just trying to justify why people (me included) wrote here "subjective beliefs" even though the thread is about "absolute truth".

Regards,
Csabi
  • #35
  • May 19, 2011 6:45am May 19, 2011 6:45am
People trade their beliefs and some people trade their P&L not the market.
  • #36
  • Edited 8:08am May 19, 2011 7:57am | Edited 8:08am
Yes, "we know nothing for sure" is I I think factual knowledge, and I am aware that it is a paradox itself, but we should not be discussing me making absolute statements, because 1. I only made one, which (as I mentioned before) is one basic rule in philosophy, 2. what I wanted to explain is that it is no surprise that people write subjective beliefs, since it is very difficult to tell absolute truth about the market.

Maybe they think what they wrote is true, and it is only you who believe that their writings are only subjective beliefs.

Even the statement "markets exist" is not 100% sure. The statement "markets exist or not" would be 100% sure. I am not abnormal, I see the markets too, I trade, etcetc, what I am saying is that 99.99999% is not 100%. And this is where I can come to my point: I don't see who is the one to decide where the border is between what we call absolute facts and subjective beliefs. My belief is that it is not you who decide, not anyone else. Its a matter of BELIEF.



Yes, I was wrong, it is not possible for everyone to win money.
  • #37
  • May 19, 2011 8:07am May 19, 2011 8:07am
Sorry CindyXXXX, I do not want to argue here or something, I just wanted to speak in favour of those trying to contribute constructively to this thread, even if their comments are not good enough for the quality of this thread.
  • #38
  • May 19, 2011 8:10am May 19, 2011 8:10am
(I should have made this clear in the first post, which has now been edited so prob my fault but...)

I wasn't looking for accuracy - just hoping people could think about the question and write a response like most have and thanks for that

Why does every thread turn into a pissing contest?

I don't care if its right or wrong it's not a fact finding exercise. If you read between the lines of some of the posts its actually very interesting.

People have a right to be inexperienced and they also have the right to post in this thread.

leave the debate for the markets to decide who is right or wrong

Just let it roll,

Thanks
Time hides Nothing
  • #39
  • May 19, 2011 8:12am May 19, 2011 8:12am
Quoting csabz90
Yes, "we know nothing for sure" is I I think factual knowledge, and I am aware that it is a paradox itself, but we should not be discussing me making absolute statements, because 1. I only made one, which (as I mentioned before) is one basic rule in philosophy, 2. what I wanted to explain is that it is no surprise that people write subjective beliefs, since it is very difficult to tell absolute truth about the market.

Maybe they think what they wrote is true, and it is only you who believe that their writings are only subjective beliefs.

Even...

common sense dictates what is absolute and what is airy fairy. it does not require a panel of 100 scientists to create complicated proofs.

stop.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #40
  • May 19, 2011 8:23am May 19, 2011 8:23am
Market is unpredictable.
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