Entries & EXITS: MP, VSA, MD, Statistics

I' ve been trading for 2 1/2 years. I explored MP VSA MD and now I'm trying to learn statistics.
spoke to many traders most acknowledge that statistics gives an edge.
I'm reading about this equilbrium cross. seems confusing but has lots of sense and logic to it.
I am slow learner somehow. but I believe this equi cross and other statistics models are helpful.
I wanted everyone's help on this thread. I want to explore the combination of MP VSA and EQUI CROSS or any statistical model to refine entry and exit. All traders can contribute to it by finding and exploiting an edge hence creating a simple system method to help us enter and exit profitably.

After two years I'm still unable to turn profits. my entry still suck.

My analysis starts with:
1. Weekly up or down. sort of hint what to expect next week immediate trend
2. I look at weekly pivot and add weekly, and daily range for intraday.
3. I use 5day VAH LO and POC as boundries for intraday S &R
4. VSA on weekly to confirm next week supply and demand.
5. Gap consideration and buy low gap and sell high gap.
6. coming intraday, I trade london open and sometimes Frank's open.
7 I enter on support and resistance. in the direction of the weekly, intraday range trend.
8. I enter on S or R only and in accordance to the trend ( usually Im right)
9. I use 30pips as target 20pips as stop loss

So these are the steps I use. and most of the time My support or resistance numbers come in to the tick and turn the market to either side.

BUT here is what happens. I get in at support on the long side. But get taken out first before price moves toward my goal.
I tried different combination of entries and executions. all fail.

what am I doing wrong?

I'm sure many traders share similar views and issues.

Lets get some feed back and help from other pro's.


ENTRIES AND EXITS

Open Discussion to all.
I will be recapping posts and results and combine all in one post as we go.

One thing I ask of all, lets not clutter up this thread. I wanted to be OBJECTIVE so we all can benefit .

indicators can be posted, but please remain objective and all indicator should relate to the topic.

Each one of us is good at something or many things. You are better than me at entries. I'm better than you at other things. lets join efforts toward one common goal.

I truly believe I'm only missing a small piece of the puzzle. So are you

I can learn from you!!!!!


Fx Profits

screenshots what I usually go thru

the daily should confirm the weekly trend

Intraday Hourly with S & R

Intraday 15 min

intraday 5min

Sold at London open, white line was targeting lower support.
look what happened. got taken out at SL, and then price moved to the intended support.

My focus is no longer on system cause I believe the system I use is great.
my problem is entry, rather when to enter than how to enter.

so I 've taken top down approach to the system and found that the system acttually supports all I said it should do, but still not able to define entry down to the tick. .
this is the puzzle.
when do I enter?
why?
How? size ? strategy? would scale in help?


Help , help...... lol

look at this chickened out
could have sold..here. but why? and how to enter?

Right about now, I'm ready to end my forex career.

But I wanna give forex another shot anyways. Gonna try and figure out with the help of others, how to enter and exit safely. I will share all what I know about trading in hopes that some good traders will come in and help solve this puzzle.

FxProfits.....



PS. I should rename my screen name To FxProfitless.....Lol

Now I should be buying the break of 1.4263 , break of 10pips then buy on retest.
I'm gonna buy in at 1.4263 retest..

confirmed break ....


now I wait for retest...


but this is the tricky part...

How do I enter..?? what if retest doesn't come...

what time frame I should be looking at?

it might miss it or dip thru .......

This is exactly my problem .. this part..ENtry.

No retest...... sad

I don't trade like you unfortunately...just my opinion presented,
feel free to ignore (or disagree)


Simplify.
Drop everything from your analysis except 7,8, and 9 (modified) from your first post.

Use a rigid stop-loss maximum, but take a look at your average trade length over the past two years.

Create a time-stop loss as well.
Divide your average winning trade duration by 3 perhaps?
Exit any trade not breakeven or better at that time, likewise ...
give yourself the discretionary decision to take profits at your average
winning trade length, instead of always waiting for 30 pips.

Way too many things on your chart, forget weekly anything, you are only targeting 30 pips.

Support and resistance, good.
Trend, perhaps on hourly and 15 min, good.
I'm not a fan of rigid profit targets... so stop loss 20 pips, good...
30 pip TP, eh (give yourself a chance to take some profits)

I'm not sure if this is what you are looking for...
but no one else has posted a suggestion yet...
that is my 2 cents.

Good Luck!

Jumped in at 1.4268... my entry should have been 1.4263 but lets account for spread....

was in some profit for a moment there. 120 up and now back in red.
dipped below... gonna take a loss early on it.
possible after I 'm out with loss price will get back up ...
could this be a problem with my system as well?

No offense taken.. write as you wish, I'm learning and certainly learned from you today. I should cut down on my analysis. sort of simplfy and focus on entries and exits.
I also agree to the fact that my profit target of 30 pips is rather a big target. I should take whatever the market offers. you suggest 10 pips scalps as long support and resistance are acurate.
Also one question in regard to the time frame why 1hr and 15 min?

above all I thank you and hope other traders read this and relate to it.

I'm still in the trade.
switched to 15 min .. as INTU suggests.
price lingering around 1.4263

my personal advices:

 

1. use higher time-frames. Let's take eur/usd. We assume 1 to 2 pips spread, and 1 pip slippage each for entry and exit. Now you got 3-4 pips trading costs. 4 pips trading costs / 30 pips profit = 13.3%. So, 13.3% of your profits will be evaporated each and every time. If you would only take a 10 pip profit target, then 40% of your profits can be written off as trading costs. The higher your tf, the less significant such trading costs are (cause your profits will be larger)
2. Extend your R:R's and drop your win/loss. Accuracy and win/loss ratios are so overrated. High win/loss ratios imply a low R:R or even negative R:R. This in turn means that your margin of error must be very low, you can't make lots of mistakes. But guess what, lots of mistakes happen in trading. If you shoot for a low win/loss and a high R:R, you can make much more errors in terms of execution.
3. Be sure that your method is net profitable in the end. Most amateur traders never really test out their methods and just trade and trade and trade. Research your method. If it is not profitable in your backtests and forward tests, then don't use it for your real account
4. Drop your indicators. They are lagging in nature, because they are a derivative of price.
5. I want to recommend you a book. It is relatively new and written by a 30-year veteran commodity trader. He made a kind of diary, where you can see how he takes trades and how OFTEN he loses. Maybe this will help you to gain perspective in what trading really is. It's called "Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading"