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At what point would you increase your stake size?

  • #41
  • May 18, 2011 1:00am May 18, 2011 1:00am
Quoting jag1966
Here we go again, utter rubish based on simple maths and stupid stats that mean nothing at all in real life . Get real.
Tell that to your banker, the next time he shows you a forecast on your investments / financial liabilities. And I don't know why you always get so extremely hostile. Do you get pleasure from that?

As usual, "normal" discussions are welcome, but you just seem to want to bash people who are not believing the same as you do.
But I don't wanna argue here. So let's leave it at that.
  • #42
  • May 18, 2011 1:14am May 18, 2011 1:14am
Quoting Custos
Tell that to your banker, the next time he shows you a forecast on your investments. You sir, are the idiot.

But I don't wanna argue here. So let's leave it at that.
dude, you really have to drop the "linear returns = trillions of dollars i am teh rich lolwtfbbq" attitude towards trading.

on one hand it's reasonable to expect traders to INCREASE their trading size, either due to increasing available capital or a change in their trading approach, but you keep ignoring the fact that it's just as reasonable for traders to DECREASE their RISK as time goes by.

once you can return enough profit to lead a high-class life then there's no reason to maintain the same level of risk for eternity. more and more profit = less risk required to maintain high-class living.

would you bet 5 bux on your drunk friend not being able to down another six pack of beer in under 10 minutes? perhaps you would since 5 bux isn't really anything in the grand scheme of things. if you had 100k would you bet 50k on the same situation?

of course not. how silly.

you, rightly, keep mentioning across the forum that people should be looking to minimize their risk... yet you don't apply this to your own examples! no one is going to make a lazy 2 pip scalp risking 100k if they have a million dollar account. that's just ridiculous.

come on man, i know you aren't stupid. why do you maintain such simplistic flawed examples and views?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #43
  • May 18, 2011 1:16am May 18, 2011 1:16am
Quoting nubcake
i want to ask you, in all seriousness, do you believe these average-educated people in high places you mention are doing so well because of their own shortcomings or because of the effectiveness of the people underneath them?

any idiot can get to the top with enough people propping them up. isn't the general consensus that people get promoted until they get to a point where they are no longer being productive?
Their shortcomings were compensated by the hard work theyve put in...and if you consider secretaries and normal backoffice staff the deal breaker of their success then so be it. Yet you overgeneralize the fact any employee can make their boss rich is a bit short sighted.

My point was that hard work and persistence is what will pay you dividends in any endeavor you put your mind to. Furthermore I come from a family that immigrated to Florida many years ago and have seen my ethnicity raise the standard of the American dream in my city. So yes average educated people can rise to the top without a MBA from harvard, and do it on their own
  • #44
  • May 18, 2011 1:20am May 18, 2011 1:20am
As the OP of this thread I welcome all constructive criticism and pleasant banter, but let's leave the harsh tones behind and perhaps bring ideas to the table so we may all benefit if at all. Jet, 2+2 and others I fail to mention have given thought out ideas from their approach and beliefs so let's keep it moving folks!!!

Let's get back to topic
  • #45
  • May 18, 2011 1:24am May 18, 2011 1:24am
Quoting nubcake
dude, you really have to drop the "linear returns = trillions of dollars i am teh rich lolwtfbbq" attitude towards trading.

on one hand it's reasonable to expect traders to INCREASE their trading size, either due to increasing available capital or a change in their trading approach, but you keep ignoring the fact that it's just as reasonable for traders to DECREASE their RISK as time goes by.

once you can return enough profit to lead a high-class life then there's no reason to maintain the same level of risk for eternity....
from my point of view it depends where my personal "threshold" is. If I saw my system working great from 1,000 to a 10,000 $, then why not continuing with the same risk profile? Well, all my examples assume that the creators of their systems have properly minimized their downside risk.

But you are right, I should assume that risk was not taken into account as much as the potential return. Will consider that in my future posts.

Thanks for the pointer.
  • #46
  • Edited 1:40am May 18, 2011 1:28am | Edited 1:40am
Quoting bullish84
Their shortcomings were compensated by the hard work theyve put in...and if you consider secretaries and normal backoffice staff the deal breaker of their success then so be it. Yet you overgeneralize the fact any employee can make their boss rich is a bit short sighted.
i wasn't suggesting anyone can prop a boss for example. perhaps you have never worked in an environment where the ones who make the decisions continually make across the board fatally wrong choices that continually hurt the business as a whole. i have.

if this has drifted off topic then so be it. are you still after discussions regarding your own decisions whether to increase or not? if so, in what regards as it appears to have been pretty-much hashed out already by others?

edit : what i meant above is - if this has gone off course then ima shuttup now
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #47
  • May 18, 2011 5:34am May 18, 2011 5:34am
Quoting Custos
Tell that to your banker, the next time he shows you a forecast on your investments / financial liabilities. And I don't know why you always get so extremely hostile. Do you get pleasure from that?

As usual, "normal" discussions are welcome, but you just seem to want to bash people who are not believing the same as you do.
But I don't wanna argue here. So let's leave it at that.
What really upsets me is certain people on FF that have numerous vouches and try to influence novice traders in something they so obviously know very little about themselves, let alone be able to trade profitably.

The moderators should protect newbs from this BS.

You for instance vouch for profitable intraday traders yet you say it CANNOT be done, what utter rubbish.
  • #48
  • May 18, 2011 5:53am May 18, 2011 5:53am
Quoting jag1966
What really upsets me is certain people on FF that have numerous vouches and try to influence novice traders in something they so obviously know very little about themselves, let alone be able to trade profitably.

The moderators should protect newbs from this BS.

You for instance vouch for profitable intraday traders yet you say it CANNOT be done, what utter rubbish.
First of all, you know nothing about my profitability. Secondly, I am just stating what I found through my testing.
Once I find something different, I am glad to revise my statements. Instead of relying on other people's claims and opinions, I only rely on what I personally could observe with a statistical significant degree in the market. And from my current observations, trading costs are a significant wall that has to be overcome, when you want to trade intraday.

I vouch for people who I benefited from or gave me an idea or two I haven't thought of. Some of the techniques used, I use myself, just on higher time-frames, where trading costs don't have such a high impact.

Anyways, I still don't understand your hostility. I just state my personal results. If you have different results, then that's fine with me. It should also be fine with you.

Now for our benefit, let's stop that discussion. It will anyways lead nowhere.
  • #49
  • May 18, 2011 8:58am May 18, 2011 8:58am
Nub, Basically I have taken from this thread that I should wait a little more in injecting more capital for various reasons posted.

Further posts I would just appreciate a vote on of I should wait and how long approximately and perhaps a short answer as to why? Further discussions could be derived from it if necessary.

Thanks all
  • #50
  • May 18, 2011 9:01am May 18, 2011 9:01am
well if it was me, i would wait. i would wait until i can't wait any longer or it has become a moot point and your capital has increased itself anyway.

you gotta poop or get off the pot. if there is doubt, then perhaps that's the answer in itself.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #51
  • May 18, 2011 10:13am May 18, 2011 10:13am
Quoting nubcake
well if it was me, i would wait. i would wait until i can't wait any longer or it has become a moot point and your capital has increased itself anyway.

you gotta poop or get off the pot. if there is doubt, then perhaps that's the answer in itself.
I second that.
  • #52
  • May 18, 2011 10:16am May 18, 2011 10:16am
Quoting Custos
I second that.
you could say... you #2 that!

haw i made a doody joke, natch
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #53
  • May 18, 2011 11:43am May 18, 2011 11:43am
If you are a trader of knowledge you would not be risking more than 1 or 2% of your capital on any one tyrade, so, why not decide on say 2% and as your equity grows (which you say it has in the last 2 months) and you risk only 2% you will be increasing your trade size automatically, likewise, if you have a few losses you will be risking less if you stick to the 2% of equity rule. So, no need to go and plonk extra cash in the account, just carry on trading as you are but risk only 2% of your equity with every trade, you will be ammazed at how fast that equity grows if you do have a 43% per 2 months growth.
  • #54
  • May 18, 2011 12:00pm May 18, 2011 12:00pm
Hi Bullish84,

I think this is a question many of us ponder so I'd like to give you my opinion. I've been able to be profitable consistently for about a year now, and in my own trading I've decided to set goals for myself, and then allow myself to add capital when those are reached until I have all the capital I want to trade in my account. This way, if my results change and I fail before then, I haven't lost everything. Also it is fun trying to reach the goals and is a way to reward myself for a job well done. My performance dictates if and when I get to add money for bigger possible gains (losses) later.

I think it is always safer (but difficult of course) to take ones time and make sure the system (or method if you are discretionary) is profitable over the long term before adding funds. This is all only my opinion, and I hope it is helpful.

Continued good luck with your trading!

Cory
  • #55
  • May 18, 2011 12:19pm May 18, 2011 12:19pm
Cory- thx for the thoughts I'll def think about it

I trade mostly discretionary sticking to a method of PA analysis, so no testing any EA for me but I guess for now can only keep doing what ive been doing.

Your suggestion and another poster suggestion about making goals and adding capital if said goals are met is the way I'm leaning towards.

I've tested my method on many different types of instruments over the years and have done fairly well until the end of last year when I tweaked something and has made incredible gains in my other accounts with IB and up to now.

I opened a small acct with Gft cuz I like their mobile/web access to trade fx.

Basically in all I will probably look to double my acct to 1k and then match it with a 1k capital injection until said goal is met, and look to phase in the rest slowly over time however long that takes while adjusting my risk along the way.
  • #56
  • Edited 1:11pm May 18, 2011 12:29pm | Edited 1:11pm
I peeked at your logs, but can you summarize for me quickly,
how many trades did you take in the two month period for your ~43% gain?

edited: looks like 48 trades.
worst lost $50 (more than 8% of account bal at the time)
best gain $51 (a little more than 9% of account bal at the time)
fairly high risk it seems
I'm not going to figure your win/loss % because it's meaningless on so few trades.


the reason I ask is to determine some statistical validity for your results other than
random chance... not a lot of trades, and we can't determine your trade durations from
your statements, you have losses anywhere from 5-30+ pips approx.

Was your potential for drawdown greater than what you experienced?
you had said about 20%... were you holding losing trades for greater drawdown than
what you closed them for?

I'm not being critical, it's a great result...but how much risk do you really take?
(I use a 30 pip emergency stop and I sometimes remove that in high volatility)
I am very high risk.

If you took 2 of your average gains (~$20) and converted them to 2 of your average losses (-~$20)...you would have a difference of $80.... subtract that from your $712 ending balance.
You'd have $632, then figure your % gain with that outcome 632/500...

now you're only up 26% for two months, swinging at somewhere around 4-5% risk per trade.
Kind of sobering isn't it?

I think your position size is too large already.
I wouldn't trade this large, and I would give it 200 trades before even beginning to think your results are consistent. (that is still a very small sample)

Again, really not criticizing, just sharing my thoughts from making every mistake possible
and I am certain I have more to come...
  • #57
  • May 18, 2011 1:08pm May 18, 2011 1:08pm
Intu- thx for taking a look at my logs

I'll try to breakdown best I can I do not have my logs in front of me at the moment

-51 trades starting 4/4/2011
- I did not have 1 trade that made me drawdown 20%, it was a run of negative trades that equalled up to that %
- I usually risk anywhere between 20-40 pips
- I just try to target 15-30 pips profit per trade or 1-5% gain per trade
-average holding period is 3-4 hours( I trade hourlies)
- my r/r doesn't always add up because I stay flexible as possible in my trades if my analysis warrants a quick trade

Any other questions I would love some1 to analyze my trades and give me their respectful constructive criticism
  • #58
  • May 18, 2011 1:11pm May 18, 2011 1:11pm
I approach trading as a art form, others can perceive it as science, however to each their own if your successful IMO.
  • #59
  • May 18, 2011 1:15pm May 18, 2011 1:15pm
With trading Hourlies, your results make more sense. It's quite possible things could've
swung even more in your favor, yielding even greater gains.

Quoting bullish84
I approach trading as a art form, others can perceive it as science, however to each their own if you're successful IMO.
  • #60
  • May 18, 2011 1:40pm May 18, 2011 1:40pm
Intu- thx good Observations, even at 26% for 2 months still not bad in my book lol!!!

I still struggle as with other traders to let my profits run, but I stick to my plan and daily goals and tp per trade, too many a time where I miss a 50-100 pip run only to take the trade off early. In the case of my largest loss/gain I was right in my projection just was very volatile as you can see in the equity swing in that period.
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