Technical Analysis Fallacy

Thanks for that. Those links seem to point to retail products. The large banks do this in-house by employing specialists. As you can see, they position their servers as close as possible to the servers at the exchange.

In the real world, these tend to go in large centralised data-centres where companies rent space close to the exchange's servers. I'm not sure if latency is measured at the nanosecond level yet but it is certainly at the microsecond level. We retailers operate at the millisecond level.

thanks for your insights Z,
Technology certainly has its advantages no question.
Just wonder if the outfits that garner so much of the retail fx market "cap" can be turned into viable companies at all.
Jmho,
It should be clear that these brokers' charts are not normal...

Looks like the new generation of traders will be this type -> http://www.jobserve.co.uk/CPlusPlus-...FEBE70BD.jsjob

I see these type of jobs advertised all of the time while the daily rate is now up to £800 and growing. They seem to be in high demand.

C++/Linux Quantitative Developer-Algorithmic Trading-Greenfield


Contract
World class Computer Scientist with excellent hands on C++/STL/Linux design and development skills sough by a high frequency algorithmic trading group. Top academics required, no financial experience needed.

Algorithmic Trading, Systematic Trading Strategies, C++/STL/Linux, Multithreading, network programming, high frequency trading, quantitative developer.

The high frequency trading group of a Global multi strategy hedge fund seeks an addition to their highly successful team that is responsible for researching and trading ultra high frequency equities strategies. The team consists of experienced and successful Quantitative Traders. This is an ideal opportunity for a software engineer with a extremely high academic and technology background seeking to make the transition into algorithmic trading. The team have a strong track record of mentoring and coaching new members of the team. Given that this is a highly sought after position, my client is quite specific about their requirements.

Responsibilities:
Working closely with high frequency traders and researchers to implement complex algorithms.
Design and optimise low latency multi channel algorithms and network protocols to provide reliable Real Time wireless communication.
Design high frequency trading infrastructure and back testing framework.

Required Experience:
Computer Science or Engineering Degree (s) from a top tier University.
Evidence of academic success including awards, scholarships etc.
A strong interested in using technology to solve complex problems.
Demonstrable technical curiosity for example programming from knowledge of a wide range of languages, open source contributions, creating your own software during your spare time
Hands on experience of designing and implementing software written in C++/UNIX/Linux in a commercial environment.
Superb network programming experience including Multithreading, TCP/IP, socket programming, IPC.
Strong experience of relational databases, Scripting (Perl, python, Shell) and functional programming languages.
Previous experience within the financial industry is a plus but not mandatory for this position as you will be trained.

If you are interested in this position and want to earn some serious money, please send your updated CV, highlighting your suitability to Rebecca Wilkinson or call for a STRICTLY confidential discussion.

LocationCity Of London
CountryUK
Start DateASAP
Rate£700 - £800 per Day

Here is another one -> http://www.jobserve.co.uk/CPlusPlus-...D98D925A.jsjob

take the money and run, huh.
Rgds.

Sure, I.T pays well but when it comes to bonus time, we only get a small cut of the cake compared to dealers, traders, fund managers, etc... You should know that Jac

As contractors though, we get a daily rate and no bonus.

yep, your right. I hate getting screwed out of bonuses as well.
It's good to see you post about the jobs regardless.
I've noticed some of the potential next gen. asking about working in a professional environment, maybe some seniors can also help provide some career advice.
Good fortune.

@fti. hope everything is ok.

and then we dont even get paid leaves...


V

Who has seen eagles flying in a flock?

RGS

E/U first sequence (11248) short (chart 4secs):

23:50:54
00:02:30

1 -.4264,5
1 -.4262,9
2 -.4267,6
4 -.4262
8 -.4253,2

close .4248,5

Summer. Fall. Winter. Spring.
Summer. Fall. Winter. Spring.
Summer. Fall. Winter. Spring.

I see a pattern here.

Morning. Noon. Night.
Morning. Noon. Night.
Morning. Noon. Night.

I see another pattern here.

High Pressure System. Higher Temperatures. Lower Winds.
Low Pressure System. Lower Temperatures. Higher Winds.

I see yet another pattern here.

Fed Raises Rates. USD higher. Gold Lower.
Fed Lowers Rates. USD Lower. Gold Higher.

I see yet again, another pattern here.

Emerging patterns in all corners of life are endless and bountiful. However, that does not mean that all patterns in life are easily detected. The warming of the Arctic Region, for example. A real pattern, continually ignored by some, while easily observed by others. The decline of morality and personal responsibility in some countries, while totally oblivious to some, there are those of us who detect that emerging pattern over the last several decades. The global migration path of thousands of living species on earth, all too easily seen by those who pay attention, while not observed by others. The ramped increase and dangerous tailgating on the highways of certain countries, is totally ignored by some drivers, but all too easily detected by other drivers over the last several decades.

The massive number of repeating patterns in our Universe is endless an unimaginable. So, why on earth should the traded financial markets be any different? Oh, well - you see, that's because human beings make up the market and they are unpredictable. To that I would say: Then how are billion dollar insurance companies able to predict with an uncanny degree of accuracy, what their loss rates will be, before the year ends?


Then make the parameters dynamic, flexible and variable under certain conditions to account for the lack of rigidity perceived in the market. Problem solved. Or, maybe your strategy is to take advantage of market extremes, so you leave the rigidity in place and look for opportunities to take positions around the empirically demonstrated tendency of the Sun to Rise in the East and Set in the West.

Just because one trader has not found the market tendencies that happen to have a higher probability for remaining true to its empirical history, does not meant that such tendencies do not exist. It merely means that one trader does not believe that the Arctic Circle is getting warmer, that's all - that certain Arctic Glaciers that have been around for eons, are not melting away. Just because one does not believe something, or has not experienced a thing, does not mean that the non-existence of that thing is a forgone conclusion.


Well, you just worded together a logical framework that would result in the market ultimately reaching zero value! Did you realize that before you typed up that quandary?

If the market is a sum total of all systems used to measure AND trade the market, then at some point, both the Market and the Tools have to reach mathematical equilibrium. Why? Because the Market would not be able to behave outside of the framework given to it by the Tools used to measure and move it. Likewise, the Tools would not be able to produce results that the Market was not producing. Those two factors are headed straight for each other like that Freight Train that you allude to at the bottom of your first post. The resulting collision between the two will result in a market that reaches Zero Value.

No positions open and no positions closed. No market. The market would cease to exist. Why? Because everyone's Tool is telling them that there is no more market - precisely because the Market is trying to "adapt" to everyone's Tool. You've created a financial market stasis.

In other words, you just used circular logic to prove a point. Of course, this cannot happen. So, we can all breath a sigh of relief that the markets will continue and the tools used to measure and trade it, will likewise continue. All circular logic aside.


I'm convinced, after all these years of being a trader, that the H-Grail resides in every single trader, but it is up to the trader to locate their own H-Grail. In other words, if one has the intellectually, psychological, emotional and physical stamina to be a trader in the first place, then they also have within them the ability to reach long-term success and long-term profitability.

However, I also firmly believe (and this really cuts to the chase) that, if one does not have the right blend of intellectual, psychological, emotional and physical qualities about them, that they won't be trader material and short of stumbling upon it like tripping over your dog while making your way to your refrigerator late at night, they likewise will not locate their own personal trading H-Grail. They simply won't be successful in this business. I think that is really what this thread is all about.


So, if we apply that same logic and extend it to an automobile insurance company, we will find that same company spending tons of its capital, studying its market and the probabilities for random events to occur that will impact their bottom line. Insurance companies spend tons of money building extremely complex mathematical models, complete with internal indicators and signals by the way, that purports to tell them what to expect over the course of a year, in terms of claims filed against a policy.

Therefore, these billion dollar Insurance companies are very much 'like' Traders. In fact, these entities Sell Put contracts directly to you. As the insured, you effectively are Buying Call contracts from the seller, to lock-in a certain price at a future date. The Insurance company runs their Technical Analysis Models to figure out what the market has historically done in the past to produce a probability for claims filing in the future. So, the Insurance company is trying to Sell as many Put contracts as possible, at the absolute highest rate possible, while at the very same time, they KNOW that only a certain number of their contracts will get exercised, because the market went against them (you filed a claim).

Now, is the Insurance company a gun slinging, guessing gambler, too? And, what about you the insured. Are you a gun slinging, guessing gambler yourself, when you bought that Call contract from the seller to lock-in a future payout should the seller get exercised?

It is not a perfect analogy, but it is a darn close approximation. Using your logic for defining a "gambler" as one who takes financial risk based on Technical Models, you will also have to include the Insurance Company (the Put Seller) and the insured (you, the Call Buyer) in the same definition.

For that matter, let's extend logic this to Prime Ministers and Presidents of democratic countries. When you invest your political currency in a Candidate, how do you know what return you will get? In the U.S., we Buy Naked Presidential Contracts for four (4) years. We have no idea whether or not we will get our political currency's worth out of that candidate until the four (4th) year of the contract expires. Some of those contracts expire worthless (George W. Bush), while others give us some ROI that we can measure (Bill Clinton and the Technology Boom).

Are we gun slinging, guessing gamblers, too? Oh, wait a minute! Don't answer that question - LOL!


Why do "Market Structure, You and Capitalization," compromise the trader's ability to use Technical Analysis to reach consistent profitability?

I strongly suggest that you take a look at what's said so dramatically in this video about Fundamental Trading -vs- Technical Trading. There are hugely successful people on both sides of the equation:




Ask not for whom the bells tolls. It might indeed tool for thee.

come on...continue reading...more than just a first post...
The thread, as I have come to know, tries to keep actual trading in 2 dimensions btw, and yes I know there's potentially much more to it than just 2 dimensions.


Edit:
-Early asia seems a bit choppy, standing aside waiting for more indication.

second sequence short E/U:
1258+124

open 00:38:38
close 00:44:15


1 -.4251,2
2 -.4251
5 -.4251
8 -.4250,3

1 -.4250,5
2 -.4251,5
4 -.4252

close .4248

true, i have received help from some senior traders here, and i want to thank you from the bottom of my heart,
you know who you are and i wont mention names, due to privacy, but i am tremendously greatful

as for FTI i think he is a great human being, and i owe him, a lot. as of the present and in the future, my success will be build upon his fundation.

if people keep their mind open they will learn, in order to understand one must read and apply. and read again, if you listen you will hear, if you open your eyes you will see, if you practice you will master the task at hand.

chart&spread (ticks):
short sequence 1 2 5 8 16

00:59:09
01:08:14

.48,8
.46,8
.45,5
.46,8
.46

.42,4 close

I read far more than the first post and its more of the same that I've seen for years on boards similar to this. I simply pointed out the flaws and contradictions, that's all. I did not know you get downgraded or ignored for doing things like that.

'Markets adjust to the tools that are used to adjust the market', is what was basically stated. And, that ends up being circular on its face. The fact that merely pointing out the illogical stanza gets me in hot water, says a whole lot more about those ignoring me than it does about me.

It seems like threads have become somewhat occultic on certain forums over the years. They used to be places where the best ideas from among several rose to the top. Now, you can open up a thread and dump any circular logic you desire, and not only will people buy it, but they'll actually defend it.

Once somebody identifies themselves as being circular, that should be a wake-up call. But, not if occultism rules the boards of today. You can be as illogical as you want and it won't matter to the choir.

LOL, what a strange place this is. Something tells me that to get along around here, I'm going to have to put on my black tennis shoes, black socks and black jogging suit, and never question whether the Space Ship is really coming or not.

I'll leave this forum to its obviously wonderful trading success, predicated on circular reasoning.

Happy Circular Trading! I mean that in a good way, you know.

Unreal.

i dont think english is FTI's mother language.

so he is a little odd with his writing however, discern what he is saying.

don take trades because the 5sma crossed the 30 sma, i mean you could if you want to, just make sure you UNDERSTAND

1 the market you are trading
2 when the crosses work
3 why they work
4 manage your risk interactively


Every one has different tactics to play the market.
just make sure you understand YOU CANNOT PREDICT IT.
no indicator can predict IT CAN HELP if you UNDERSTAND IT. and its limitations.

actively manage your position (your risk exposure) and adapt, dont be rigid.
if the market is not going higher sh+.t STOP going BULLISH,

USE YOUR BRAIN
NOT AN INDICATOR.

READ the ART of WAR, it will give you a better understanding of what is taught here

Why didn't Twee follow his own advise and ignore the kid's commplants . Twee decided to put FTI's post in the recycle bin. Do you have any idea how insulting that is. Do you think FTI is coming back? I would have to say he is going to handle this matter likes he handles all betrayals..close the account.



uote=GEfx;4625204]Hi everyone. I got several really nice emails from Twee yesterday, regarding the recent problem we had on the thread. I am going to start taking his advice by ignoring posts that have no meaning or are designed to stir up trouble.

fti has been receiving lots of criticism of late, and taking shots for the material he has presented here. I want to take a moment to thank fti for the part he has played in the success that I am having as a forex trader. I have learned more from him about being a trader than anyone else. I encourage everyone here to take a moment to tell fti what he has done for you and how he has impacted your trading. We can't do anything about the critical comments (aside from ignore them) but we can provide some perspective to counter the critics.[/quote]

Huh.

good explanation.....

Next please


V