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vsa with Malcolm

  • #19,761
  • May 16, 2011 3:33pm May 16, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting Trader_X
at the moment i wrote that we didnt / i didnt know where it was going...i was up 40 pips and it retraced nearly all the way to my BE ponit...another5-7 pips and i woulldve been stopped out(BE) !!! so to think that i was +40 and got nothing out of it would be very disappointing to me...i took that trade on a 15m chart and i very often will take a 15m trade and be up 25-30 pips and decide to let it run only to BE....this happened last week..took 8 trades in a row...ALL of them were up any where from15 to 30 pips but ALL them broke even !!!had i kept...

Your explanation is logical. However you pointed out the thrust bar on the M30 chart, and in this case a good spot for your stop would be just above the high of that bar. In my experience it is more rewarding to take a trade on a smaller timeframe ie:M30, to narrow in on the best setup, and then back off one or two timeframes and look at the big picture (which you should have been looking at in the first place before narrowing in on your position). What you are doing by finding a setup on M30 and then following it on M15 is just adding more noise to the picture and therefore creating more stress, and causing you to make bad judgments. I am not saying your judgment in this case was the wrong one, I am just saying try it the other way around, you may find it works better.
But as you said if you were more focused on smaller positions on M15 timeframe, then Malcombs advice is correct in saying its not wise to trade against the demand when price has moved up most the day.
  • #19,762
  • May 16, 2011 3:35pm May 16, 2011 3:35pm
to add to my above post...i agrree with you on the overall downtrend...but as malcolm pointed out (and i agree with my VERY limited vsa knowledge) there is no weakness in the immediate backround ...but i didnt see that when i took the trade..so i wouldve been disappointed that i chose to let it run if i had got stopped out...the question that started all of it was me asking "how far do i let this run?" and with no weakness in the immediate background you couldnt reasonably expect it to go far..it did return to fall further of course , but i still think the safe/smart play was to close with a profit as opposed to risk it all for a bigger return....appreciate your advice, regards, TX
  • #19,763
  • May 16, 2011 3:35pm May 16, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting Trader_X
at the moment i wrote that we didnt / i didnt know where it was going...i was up 40 pips and it retraced nearly all the way to my BE ponit...another5-7 pips and i woulldve been stopped out(BE) !!! so to think that i was +40 and got nothing out of it would be very disappointing to me...i took that trade on a 15m chart and i very often will take a 15m trade and be up 25-30 pips and decide to let it run only to BE....this happened last week..took 8 trades in a row...ALL of them were up any where from15 to 30 pips but ALL them broke even !!!had i kept...
Hi Trader_X,
Since you are a 2007 member I prob don't have to tell you, but I struggled with the same thinking.
It's important to define before the trade if you are scalping or something more then that.
If scalping I'm happy with 10-20 pips and decline to think if there would be more.
If the objective is more I place my BE stop pretty quick and don't mind if it is stopped.
Mostly 7 out of 10 trades in the last category fail @ BE but the 3 that don't steal the show....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,764
  • May 16, 2011 3:39pm May 16, 2011 3:39pm
1st target ? we are way off 1st target ...see my posts on the weekend.



Quoting USD-Bear
First target reached, holding position, lets see what 1328 does......
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,765
  • May 16, 2011 3:46pm May 16, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting malcolmb14
1st target ? we are way off 1st target ...see my posts on the weekend.
my first target.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,766
  • May 16, 2011 3:46pm May 16, 2011 3:46pm
yes you are correct ..look at the bigger tf ..find entry on the smaller...in this case..to be honest i shorted off the trendline..i saw the upthrust forming but it wasnt finished forming.. it was the TL bounce that was the deciding factor..then the upthrust formed which confirmed my postion..but there was no larger TF confirmation so i was stuck thinking how far should i let this run? then malcolm pointed out what shouldve been obvious to me so i figured better some money , than no money!!! of course because i closed the trade it will fall 400 pips in the next hour !!!LOL..cause thats how i roll!!! LOL..but im working hard to change that...this vsa stuff is not easy!!! but i can see where with diligence , practice and patients it would get easier ...its hands down the best system( for lack of a better word) ive ever seen...i will implement your advice about the TF thing..realy appreciate you taking the time to point that out..best regards, TX
  • #19,767
  • May 16, 2011 3:46pm May 16, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting Trader_X
to add to my above post...i agrree with you on the overall downtrend...but as malcolm pointed out (and i agree with my VERY limited vsa knowledge) there is no weakness in the immediate backround ...but i didnt see that when i took the trade..so i wouldve been disappointed that i chose to let it run if i had got stopped out...the question that started all of it was me asking "how far do i let this run?" and with no weakness in the immediate background you couldnt reasonably expect it to go far..it did return to fall further of course , but i still...
You are correct. In this case I am looking for 1:1 RR. only because of what the market is showing me currently. Volume has dropped significantly and the initial movement down was not large enough IMO.
I have already set my stop at BE and am 12 pips away from TP.

If price would have taken off after the upthrust I would be looking for a much larger RR. I am a firm believer in high momentum after these shakeouts or upthrust bars, if i dont see momentum + volume shortly after, then I look for areas to exit.
  • #19,768
  • May 16, 2011 3:53pm May 16, 2011 3:53pm
happens to me all the time...i go in with the intention of being happy with 20-25 pips...then when they come i think ..Hmmm wonder how far she'll go??? only to hit BE...I literally took 8 trades in a row one day last week ,waiting for it to run..everyone of them was up 15 ,20,30 pips and ALL broke even!!! i was sick!!! i said i wasnt gonna do it anymore and if i had lost that trade today to BE..i wouldve been sick!!LOL..
i totally get what ya'll are telling me.."Sniper" the trade ..plan it out, take the shot and follow it through,...your right!....im going to really work on that...thanks for everyones input..much appreciated!! regards, TX
  • #19,769
  • May 16, 2011 3:55pm May 16, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting Trader_X
yes you are correct ..look at the bigger tf ..find entry on the smaller...in this case..to be honest i shorted off the trendline..i saw the upthrust forming but it wasnt finished forming.. it was the TL bounce that was the deciding factor..then the upthrust formed which confirmed my postion..but there was no larger TF confirmation so i was stuck thinking how far should i let this run? then malcolm pointed out what shouldve been obvious to me so i figured better some money , than no money!!! of course because i closed the trade it will fall 400 pips...
What you saw was confluence... also if you look on the daily and draw a straight horizontal line directly above todays high you will notice that it aligns with many areas of support and resistance. If you can find a VSA set up, around these zones, you will be profitable over time. This one in particular caught my interest because it also lined up with the trendline, as well as well as the 23.6 fib on the daily.

I dont post much on this forum, I am more of an observer/listener. But i am glad to help out respectful people... majority of people on these forums have no respect.
  • #19,770
  • May 16, 2011 4:02pm May 16, 2011 4:02pm
Quoting Trader_X
happens to me all the time...i go in with the intention of being happy with 20-25 pips...then when they come i think ..Hmmm wonder how far she'll go??? only to hit BE...I literally took 8 trades in a row one day last week ,waiting for it to run..everyone of them was up 15 ,20,30 pips and ALL broke even!!! i was sick!!! i said i wasnt gonna do it anymore and if i had lost that trade today to BE..i wouldve been sick!!LOL..
i totally get what ya'll are telling me.."Sniper" the trade ..plan it out,...
For scalping it's easy, before the trade define your stop and limit (for me it's always -10 and +13) and place the order with those stops and limits

But then, nothing to do with VSA Good luck!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,771
  • May 16, 2011 4:18pm May 16, 2011 4:18pm
Closed my short @ 1325 looking for some retrace

M15:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,772
  • May 16, 2011 5:24pm May 16, 2011 5:24pm
Quoting Trader_X
since the market has slowed would any of the vetern vsa guys here mind explaining triggers for us new guys or point us in a direction where we might be able to find some info on the subject?..realy appreciate any help!..regards, TX
I had a big long reply written out and closed the damn tab by mistake. Take 2.

We take a trigger line/number from the closing price of a high to ultra high volume bar. Preferably the highest of the session or at least the highest in the current price action area. You'll be amazed how often price will react to this area on your charts.

I've attached a chart. I have a couple of lines drawn on this chart but concentrate on the area i've marked with "1". This volume bar sticks out, whilst not the absolute highest ( "2" is highest) it is the highest in this area. We look for price to move away from the trigger, above or below is fine. I prefer to look for a low volume test for a buy signal, as shown in the screenshot. We can also look for price to move below the trigger line and come back on a no demand or low volume upthrust.

I'm mainly using triggers on 5 and 15min charts but they work on any time frame and are usually important areas to keep an eye on. Daily high/close and open are also areas worth keeping an eye on.

Triggers aren't mentioned in Master the Markets but Gavin uses them and talks a lot about them in webinars and educational videos etc. Hopefully he discusses them in his new book.

Here are some links i've found useful while learning about triggers. Happy reading! Both of the below users have many more worthwhile posts on triggers but these are the ones i've happened to book mark.

Pres78 - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=16682

Hidden Gap - http://www.forexfactory.com/newreply...eply&p=4621735

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=16390

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=17457

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=18054
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  • #19,773
  • May 16, 2011 5:45pm May 16, 2011 5:45pm
[quote=KinsaleForex;4622099]I had a big long reply written out and closed the damn tab by mistake. Take 2.

Great post thankyou for taking the time.
  • #19,774
  • May 16, 2011 5:50pm May 16, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
I had a big long reply written out and closed the damn tab by mistake. Take 2.

We take a trigger line/number from the closing price of a high to ultra high volume bar. Preferably the highest of the session or at least the highest in the current price action area. You'll be amazed how often price will react to this area on your charts.

I've attached a chart. I have a couple of lines drawn on this chart but concentrate on the area i've marked with "1". This volume bar sticks out, whilst not the absolute highest ( "2" is highest) it is the highest...


Thank you KinsaleForex,your a diamond
  • #19,775
  • May 16, 2011 6:16pm May 16, 2011 6:16pm
Hi Guys,

This is my first post to this thread, as I have been sitting in the background trying to understand some of the concepts of VSA. I have posted a chart to try and find some answers...

To the left you see price dropping down and then a selling climax, with an automatic rally. According to Wycoff, this sets the boundaries of the trading range (represented by the two horizontal lines) . You should note as time progress you have resistance at the top, causing prices to drop away (which you can trade using VSA principles) and then rallies at the bottom (2nd tests).

You then get a penetration of the lower resistance, causing bearish traders to be locked into poor positions, and the Spring of prices northbound. As price breaks out of the trading range, we are looking for a pullback to test the level of supply still in the market, and a resumption of the up trend.

My questions are, am I correct in my understanding of all this, and this is a correct accumulation phase? Any of your thoughts and comments are greatly appreciated.

Cheers,

Totalpips
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  • #19,776
  • May 16, 2011 6:25pm May 16, 2011 6:25pm
Quoting ady_babe

Great post thankyou for taking the time.
Quoting omi
Thank you KinsaleForex,your a diamond
No probs guys, at the second time of writing i forgot to mention that I usually look for a 1:1 return on these setups. That's why in the screenshot shown it just so happens the market turned as it hit my intended target. Without actually checking I can't remember where it went from here.
  • #19,777
  • May 16, 2011 6:54pm May 16, 2011 6:54pm
Great summary, thanks Liam.




____________
michael
Be like water.
  • #19,778
  • Edited 7:27pm May 16, 2011 7:11pm | Edited 7:27pm
Hi Kinsale,

Thanks for taking the time to explain things like that. I have a question for you and malcolmb14 regarding trade management...

I've been a long time reader of FF and have followed malcolmb14 for a fair while... one thing i've never really seen much of is trade management strategy etc.

How do you manage your trades? How does Mal manage his trades? Tight trail to BE? No trail to BE? I dont think there is much scaling in or out for that matter ... but keen to hear how you do things when only going for a 1:1 r/r.

Thanks,

GC
  • #19,779
  • Edited 8:05pm May 16, 2011 7:47pm | Edited 8:05pm
So Liam posted a nice example of a trigger based trade in response to a few traders asking for advice on triggers. Malc and Hidden Gap opened my eyes to the use of triggers and they are now my main Intraday trading tool. I have personally made quite a few posts on this matter showing what I look for and how I set my trigger levels not only using high volume or spread bars but also the daily open level, previous days H/L and DPP and supply / demand zones. I look for VSA set-ups to occur within on of those levels. I have taken the basic idea of triggers which is trading a set-up into the close of the highest volume bars and expanded on it by using some of the other levels as mentioned above. I also have made a few posts in the past about using swing H/L levels during moves up and down as trigger zones for added entries even if the first one may have been missed

Please also note that when looking at high volume trigger levels they can end up being the bars H or L... as HG as said let the market tell you which level ends up being the trigger but start out assuming it is the close.

Now for triggers and more so possible range zones one should also look at the highest spread bars even if not the highest volume... One should also look out for really wide spread bars that occur during odd times of the day like Asia or leading into NY close.

I have covered a lot of ideas in the above post and it just so happens that today's and Friday's PA show a few of these points very nicely.

It is a 15min chart;

1. The green lines are the highest volume bar from Friday... I marked this bar and the close level
2. The blue lines are the second highest volume bar from Friday... I once again marked the bar and the close level
3. The yellow lines are the widest spread bar from Friday... for this one I marked the H and L

Now what is the importance of this? Look at PA into these levels. Also note that this is not even taking into account any trigger levels or bars from today... these are all levels and bars from the previous day / week. This is a great example of looking left and keeping mind of previously important levels. PA will many time return several times to re-test old levels and in some cases it will return again much after the fact.

I am not going to go into too much detail as I think the chart and PA is pretty clear... notice how after the GAP down PA finally entered the wide spread bars range from Friday and it wasn't until 1hr after NY open that this range was finally taken out. If you look close you will see how the 2 highest volume bars from Friday also played important roles in today's PA.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,780
  • May 16, 2011 9:35pm May 16, 2011 9:35pm
TX - If you haven't looked at this post yet, please do. It's a great VSA reflection, plus asks the same question you posted above. Malcolm gives some answers, and some things to think about:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...24#post3807824
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