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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #981
  • May 15, 2011 8:13pm May 15, 2011 8:13pm
AUD/USD remaining weak.. Seeing Asian CCy's weaken which will take pressure off ACB's to buy AUD.

Testing a minor sup 1.0530 but have the bigger support at 1.0460-70
Resistance is now 1.0610-30.

Still it appears frustrated bulls buying these dips.

Braver than me as momentum seems to have shifted to the downside.

Im a sell on rally's dude..
  • #982
  • May 16, 2011 7:47am May 16, 2011 7:47am
Quoting FX-Petra
Here we go again. Bought another lot @ 0590. We'll see where she goes!

Regards!
Bought another lot @ 0520. All stops moved below clear support area of 0460ish. A couple of days of northside would make this a sweet month for me. Good trades to all....

Regards,
  • #983
  • May 16, 2011 9:31am May 16, 2011 9:31am
Quoting FX-Petra
Bought another lot @ 0520. All stops moved below clear support area of 0460ish. A couple of days of northside would make this a sweet month for me. Good trades to all....

Regards,

Hi there FX-Petra,
Junior trader needs guidance.

I am little worried with my positions.
Still have buy position 1 lot @0679 and 1 lot @0617. What do you reckon.
How far audusd will go higher? should I keep the positions?

Thx mate
  • #984
  • May 16, 2011 10:05am May 16, 2011 10:05am
Quoting st.forex4677
Hi there FX-Petra,
Junior trader needs guidance.

I am little worried with my positions.
Still have buy position 1 lot @0679 and 1 lot @0617. What do you reckon.
How far audusd will go higher? should I keep the positions?

Thx mate
Depends on how long you are willing to hold. You should have added under 0550, but you didn't, so that is water under the bridge. Now only add between 0460 and 0510, with all stops below 0440. I am holding for 0700 area, but it may take a couple of days to get there. 0650 Would get you out with a profit, and we may see that today!

Regards,

ps. also depends upon your position sizing. I trade $1 pip for every $2,000 in my account, and I divide that $1 pip size into 4 parts (sometimes 6) to allow myself to build into a position. Typically, with $80K in my account, I would build a postion = $40 pip, $10 at time. That is my MAX aggresive positon. Sometimes I would go $8 at a time with 5 positions, or $6 at a time with 6 positions.
  • #985
  • May 16, 2011 10:16am May 16, 2011 10:16am
Quoting st.forex4677
Hi there FX-Petra,
Junior trader needs guidance.

I am little worried with my positions.
Still have buy position 1 lot @0679 and 1 lot @0617. What do you reckon.
How far audusd will go higher? should I keep the positions?

Thx mate
And I hope you take my position sizing example from above to heart. I really, really wish someone would have spelled it out for me like that years ago. Would have saved me a lot of money and anguish. If you don't have your risk right, it doesn't matter how talented and commited you are, you will be wiped out.

Regards,
  • #986
  • May 16, 2011 10:34am May 16, 2011 10:34am
Just back from some busy holiday - Monday.

Aussie down to 1.0512 - along side with the weak Euro.
Kiwi lso trembling down from 0.79 to 0.7754 low with the above.
Missed the good entry point for both ..

Both has recovered after the Bernanke speeches and with the higher Gold price.

Good luck to all traders..
  • #987
  • May 16, 2011 5:26pm May 16, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting st.forex4677
Hi there FX-Petra,
Junior trader needs guidance.

I am little worried with my positions.
Still have buy position 1 lot @0679 and 1 lot @0617. What do you reckon.
How far audusd will go higher? should I keep the positions?

Thx mate
It seems you didnt have a plan here..
  • #988
  • May 16, 2011 5:32pm May 16, 2011 5:32pm
Today RBA which may give those nervous longs respite.

I still think the danger sign is down still.
I would look to be selling into any up ticks above 1.0600 and adding to them every 30 pips towards 1.07
Initial Target for me is 1.0300..
So there is something in it for bulls and bears.. it depends which side you prefer to play off.
  • #989
  • May 16, 2011 7:49pm May 16, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting FX-Petra
And I hope you take my position sizing example from above to heart. I really, really wish someone would have spelled it out for me like that years ago. Would have saved me a lot of money and anguish. If you don't have your risk right, it doesn't matter how talented and commited you are, you will be wiped out.

Regards,

Thanks for the great input.

I will set the protection. Hope the aud go higher. *finger crossed



Regards,
  • #990
  • May 16, 2011 9:25pm May 16, 2011 9:25pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Bought another lot @ 0520. All stops moved below clear support area of 0460ish. A couple of days of northside would make this a sweet month for me. Good trades to all....

Regards,
closed my 0520 and 0590 @ 0590 on the pop up. Still holding 2 lots @ 0702. Will add again between 0460 and 0510 if given the chance.

Regards,
  • #991
  • May 16, 2011 9:28pm May 16, 2011 9:28pm
Quoting lasty
Today RBA which may give those nervous longs respite.

I still think the danger sign is down still.
I would look to be selling into any up ticks above 1.0600 and adding to them every 30 pips towards 1.07
Initial Target for me is 1.0300..
So there is something in it for bulls and bears.. it depends which side you prefer to play off.
Well no relief for the long AUD holders as RBA was standoffish.
We are trading below 1.0550 again and its starting to look offered.
Intraday 1.0500 has to hold and would expect placement of stops under here.
Watch for a Euro/AUD break out of 1.3425/35 topside to gather momentum of AUD to add to the selling pressure.
  • #992
  • May 16, 2011 9:39pm May 16, 2011 9:39pm
Quoting lasty
Well no relief for the long AUD holders as RBA was standoffish.
We are trading below 1.0550 again and its starting to look offered.
Intraday 1.0500 has to hold and would expect placement of stops under here.
Watch for a Euro/AUD break out of 1.3425/35 topside to gather momentum of AUD to add to the selling pressure.
I don't know about that. Just read the entire statement, and it seemed pretty hawkish to me. Highly, highly likely RBA will raise again before Fed Reserve does. Would not be surprised if we see some north action building when London opens. Anyway, it is hard to see a big drop any time soon. More likely we are carving out the "summer range". Sell in May and go away is a long tested and fairly reliable market axiom.

Regards,
  • #993
  • May 16, 2011 9:50pm May 16, 2011 9:50pm
guys, please give me some comments about me holding my long audusd @ 1.06189. please im holding this already for like days now, but aud is too week, i want to get out on this transaction but not in loosing. please help what will be the outcome of this aud?
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #994
  • May 16, 2011 9:51pm May 16, 2011 9:51pm
Quoting bdsilvano
guys, please give me some comments about me holding my long audusd @ 1.06189. please im holding this already for like days now, but aud is too week, i want to get out on this transaction but not in loosing. please help what will be the outcome of this aud?
Close your order, and go back to demo. Come back when you learn to take a loss.
  • #995
  • May 16, 2011 9:55pm May 16, 2011 9:55pm
well i guess your right, better loss small than lost a big...
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #996
  • May 16, 2011 9:59pm May 16, 2011 9:59pm
weak aud,,,,, i guess it will fall for more.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #997
  • May 16, 2011 10:38pm May 16, 2011 10:38pm
Comments coming out of Australian treasury secretary seeing sustained shift in exchange rate. AUD @1.0575
More of a statement than fact.
  • #998
  • May 16, 2011 11:15pm May 16, 2011 11:15pm
I would not be surprised if the AUD heads further south for a little while. Considering it has been on a huge run for a long long time, a correction of the upward trend seems like a reasonable occurrence, especially since margins are being tightened, people are freaking out about one thing or another, etc, etc.. There is a lot of negative news out there affecting the alleged risk trades.

That being said, I'm still long term bullish on the AUD, because it seems the only logical conclusion. The US is most likely going to raise the debt limit. That would factor into the requirement to print more money for war, more money to leverage against reminbi, more money to cover the pensions they are now 'officially' stealing from.

There are plenty of fundamental reasons to remain holding anything other than the USD, so how long will people panic and keep the pressure on the AUD to the downside? Who knows, who cares. If you put everything aside and remind yourself, why would you want USD? There's really no reason to hold.

< 1% interest compared to > 4% interest?

On the other hand, the Australian politicians are so stupid, that they are playing into the strengths of the AUD. I would hate to be on the ground in Australia. The only people making money are in the mining industry, and even then they're not enjoying it. Prices are too high. And of course, to control those prices, the interest rate could be raised by the RBA. The RBA is ALWAYS hawkish. So I wouldn't put too much weight into whether or not the RBA's 'tone' is hawkish.
  • #999
  • May 16, 2011 11:15pm May 16, 2011 11:15pm
Quoting lasty
Comments coming out of Australian treasury secretary seeing sustained shift in exchange rate. AUD @1.0575
More of a statement than fact.
The Treasury Secretary, Swan, is a moron.
  • #1,000
  • May 17, 2011 4:10am May 17, 2011 4:10am
As long as the AUD is hovering around in this channel we go nowhere.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd daily.gif Size: 159 KB

USD and Gold (opposite) leads the way out of this sideways trade range. Long to get swaps with thight stops is the name of the game.

Cheers
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