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Thinking Outside the Box!?!

  • #181
  • May 14, 2011 11:57am May 14, 2011 11:57am
Quoting Pipalicious
Nah you didnt touch a nerve. FF has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

But I do find it funny in a thread where there are so called "out of the box" ideas and "thoughts" being discussed that it isnt an open minded discussion, but more of a self opinionated thread.

Any thought provoking questions you'd like to share with others?

Maybe you could inspire my open mindedness...
nope, i've got nothing. my mind is almost done for the night. there really isn't much in the way of thinking outside of the box in here. seen it / read it all before. crucial point was the last person to write something that sparked some ideas, and before that smjones... but that's it for me. nothing else is new, and it's all the same old tired stuff being rehashed over and over. i don't suggest, and don't believe i ever have suggested, that i have anything new to add.

i actually don't know what your issue is. i thought you were asking direct questions and i took a punt from my own perspective. if that offends you in some way then so be it. i was expecting in return either your own clarifications or further thought-provoking text.

perhaps i should have just ignored your questions altogether and then no one at all would have replied? *shrug*
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #182
  • May 14, 2011 12:03pm May 14, 2011 12:03pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Momentum is speed. The rate at which the trend is moving at.
This "speed" is relative to the average speed (momentum) preceding it.
As in..."Is the momentum of this so called trend increasing or decreasing?"
Allow me to correct that from a physics point of view (I'm not a physician nor a mathematician btw):

Momentum:

Momentum is the product of mass and velocity. (mass in forex = volume, velocity = motion)

Momentum is mass in motion.
Momentum = Mass * Velocity

Speed:

Speed is distance in time.
Speed = Pips / Time

If you see a straight downwards movement in a renko chart for example, you can't assume it's a "quick" movement. It could have happened quickly as it could have taken forever to form, we don't know. We can't know speed from a non-time based chart because to know speed you need to know time.

Inertia:

Here is something else I don't see mentioned when it comes to trading: Inertia.

Inertia is the resistance of an object to a change in its state of motion.
Inertia is a property of mass (in forex: volume).

An object's mass is constant. Therefore an object's inertia is constant. When you push an object and make it move you are of course suddenly increasing its velocity, momentum, and speed, but you are not increasing its inertia. However in forex, price's "mass" changes and therefore its inertia (resistance to change in motion/acceleration/direction) changes constantly.
  • #183
  • May 14, 2011 12:52pm May 14, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting nubcake
there really isn't much in the way of thinking outside of the box in here. seen it / read it all before. crucial point was the last person to write something that sparked some ideas, and before that smjones... but that's it for me. nothing else is new, and it's all the same old tired stuff being rehashed over and over. i don't suggest, and don't believe i ever have suggested, that i have anything new to add.
I'm working on something which I believe is sort of out of the box - using Oanda Box options in another way than they are meant to. And I'm not talking about arbitraging them. I never heard about something similar on FF, I only encountered something remotely close in a few quant papers.

I will not go into details, but not because I'm afraid that somebody else will also do this and I will be left without an edge.
  • #184
  • May 14, 2011 1:06pm May 14, 2011 1:06pm
Quoting Adal
BTW, on the M1 timeframes that you use there is another very interesting analysis that you can do, besides watching the spread - measuring the time interval between individual ticks coming in, using Autoregressive Conditional Duration models.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoreg...ional_duration

But now we are getting into HFT territory.
From the link: " waiting times between two consecutive trades vary at random "
-- Very cool. I've got a very short-lived and inconclusive thread on that subject.
Congrats on solving this problem, which you said lots have worked on.

The logr stuff, yes, it's in stocks for, at least for me, a reason: Stocks rise and fall on news, market schedules, and group motion with momentum in much simpler ways than other financial markets' symbols do.
I'd rather identify logr in patterns alongside your (1:1?) traditional price representation, since forex is 24/5 and, I've found, treats news as switchable with chart-only.
  • #185
  • May 14, 2011 1:33pm May 14, 2011 1:33pm
Quoting ha-pattern
From the link: " waiting times between two consecutive trades vary at random "
-- Very cool. I've got a very short-lived and inconclusive thread on that subject.
Congrats on solving this problem, which you said lots have worked on.
Well, I didn't solve anything, just learned about the existence of these time-arrival models I like to be aware of the latest research in the quant world, I got a lot of excellent ideas from them.

I didn't understand exactly your tick beat/metronome indicator, looked to me like some sort of sub-minute candles, but I'm probably wrong, since you seemed to say that this is exactly what they are not (another averaging indicator).

Anyway, here are the conclusions of the original ACD paper. They use this model to determine if there are informed traders in the market:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/ff/acd.png

Paper: http://math.uncc.edu/~zcai/s-paper11.pdf
  • #186
  • May 14, 2011 2:31pm May 14, 2011 2:31pm
The problem with this thread is that the "box" was never really defined.

One mans box may be another mans matrix or something like that...
Time hides Nothing
  • #187
  • May 14, 2011 3:33pm May 14, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
The problem with this thread is that the "box" was never really defined.

One mans box may be another mans matrix or something like that...
Yep agreed.

Out of the box for me is that pivots, fibs, mas, gann, ew, rsi, yada yada are utter bollux.

Many could do well thinking like this. Keep it simple.

SR and trend is all I need to trade profitably, but do you REALLY understand what SR is and what is a trend?
  • #188
  • May 14, 2011 3:34pm May 14, 2011 3:34pm
To CindyXXX's point, as I've read through this thread, I keep wondering which box you are talking about? There's more than one, or at least, thinking about it as a multi-box reality may help move the thread along.
  • #189
  • May 14, 2011 4:45pm May 14, 2011 4:45pm
Quoting nubcake
there really isn't much in the way of thinking outside of the box in here.
I agree.

Quoting nubcake
crucial point was the last person to write something that sparked some ideas, and before that smjones... but that's it for me.
Care to direct me to these threads/comments? ive read a lot of crucial's stuff but not smjones's...

Quoting nubcake
i was expecting in return either your own clarifications or further thought-provoking text.
Ive said what was on my mind and tried to get this going with questions. If my questions aint the appropriate well so be it. Thats the current level im at.

What needs be clarified? As for thought-provoking text well... you've already seen it all havent you? bit of sarcasm doesnt hurt.

Quoting nubcake
perhaps i should have just ignored your questions altogether and then no one at all would have replied?
Well in all honesty your replies havent helped at all. So that so far has been pointless. What i will say though, is that its interesting to read on how others perceive things differently.

We all live inside our own little boxes i guess...
  • #190
  • May 14, 2011 4:48pm May 14, 2011 4:48pm
Thanks Marv!

Yeah I see your points.

About inertia thats interesting. Never thought of that.

So far my thoughts are that the faster price moves in a given direction the faster you can mitigate risk. Velocity/accel is key imho and something im currently working on with a friend testing-wise.

Interesting results i must say.

Thanks for your comments
  • #191
  • May 14, 2011 9:37pm May 14, 2011 9:37pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Care to direct me to these threads/comments? ive read a lot of crucial's stuff but not smjones's...
both are in the bin and gone forever. but google parrondo's paradox if you haven't already.

as for the rest of your post. i don't know what your issue is, so perhaps just put me on ignore and be done with it.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #192
  • May 14, 2011 10:11pm May 14, 2011 10:11pm
Mr. Nub is right on target. I found out years ago that the #1 factor that makes trading difficult is "time frames". Most traders look at their chosen time frame and make decisions based on what they see. As we all know, one time frame will be indicating "long" while the other is saying "short" (utilizing the same criteria). So we then look for confluence by observing 2 or maybe 3 time frames in order to get direction. What we must understand is that standardization transcending all time frames is indeed the answer.
  • #193
  • May 14, 2011 10:38pm May 14, 2011 10:38pm
Quoting Adal
I'm working on something which I believe is sort of out of the box - using Oanda Box options in another way than they are meant to. And I'm not talking about arbitraging them. I never heard about something similar on FF, I only encountered something remotely close in a few quant papers.

I will not go into details, but not because I'm afraid that somebody else will also do this and I will be left without an edge.
you have got some wicked stuff going on in your head. i'd love to "being john malkovich" your brain and just soak it all in. i just googled oanda box option and to me it seems like another thing to simply confuse most people, lol. or perhaps an options ability with training wheels, or something along those lines. interesting trading concept nonetheless and no doubt if you can make it profitable then you've got it all worked out, options and spot.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #194
  • May 14, 2011 10:43pm May 14, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
The problem with this thread is that the "box" was never really defined.

One mans box may be another mans matrix or something like that...
if there is another thread for a topic, then it's inside the box. we've all seen the same ideas thrashed a hundred different ways in all of the other threads, and they all win and all lose depending on when you look at them. 50/50 crapshoots don't cut it. actually it should be 50/50/100... 50% win / 50% lose / 100% unprofitable.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #195
  • May 14, 2011 11:40pm May 14, 2011 11:40pm
Quoting Warburg
As we all know, one time frame will be indicating "long" while the other is saying "short" (utilizing the same criteria). So we then look for confluence by observing 2 or maybe 3 time frames in order to get direction.
I disagree.

The trend could be bullish on the weekly chart, but I can still make a series of profitable selling scalps on the 1 minute chart. The daily or weekly charts in this case would mean nothing to me.

You see, it all depends on your trade's range. That's what should define your timeframe and how "relevant" other timeframes are to you. If my trade's range is 15 pips (5 pips SL and 10 pips TP) then the higher the timeframe, the more irrelevant it becomes to me (and vice versa). In other words, it's good to try to zoom back to see the bigger picture, but you'll reach a point that once you cross, the further you zoom back the more irrelevant the chart becomes to your trade. And vice versa for zooming in.

Looking at the weekly chart when my trade's range is 15 pips is like trying to know/predict the road while driving a car by looking at the world's map. And vice versa, you can't figure our where New Zealand is simply by looking at a map of your local town.

The scope of the map you should be looking at should be relative to the size of what you're targeting.
  • #196
  • Edited 10:54am May 15, 2011 12:46am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting Warburg
Mr. Nub is right on target. I found out years ago that the #1 factor that makes trading difficult is "time frames". Most traders look at their chosen time frame and make decisions based on what they see. As we all know, one time frame will be indicating "long" while the other is saying "short" (utilizing the same criteria). So we then look for confluence by observing 2 or maybe 3 time frames in order to get direction. What we must understand is that standardization transcending all time frames is indeed the answer.
Spot on. What may look like a perfectly valid trend on the lower timeframes will most likely be just a retracement / pullback / profit taking on the higher timeframes.

Swissy was the perfect example on Friday.

As at 8am gmt.

I knew the monthly trend was down yet Mays candle is bullish / green. Long bias.

The weekly candle was also bullish / green. Long bias.

Thursdays daily candle closed red / bearish (profit taking) but we were in a strong bullish pullback / swing at about 38% (I don't trade fibs but you have to look at what the herd may be doing)

H4, had closed as a shooting star below an ascending trendline so I was looking for short term shorts.

H1, I went short 0.8862 expecting it to test old support at 0.8800 ish then I expected it to resume the h4 trend long to test 0.8950 ish, which coincidently was the 50% fib of the recent weekly downswing.

H1 then became a perfect 2b reversal long that I would like to say I traded but I was on the beach chilling out.

All we are doing is trading the big players games. This sort of analysis gets me into nice trades almost every morning and you do not have to spend all day staring at charts.

My apologies for the slightly off topic post.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #197
  • May 15, 2011 3:08am May 15, 2011 3:08am
Here's what I've found.

Purposely thinking inside the box transports you outside the box.

Everyone is trying so hard to be "outside the box". Everyone is trying to figure out the answer to the riddle. They don't see that the act of trying to be outside the box, trying to beat the game, trying to find the answer, is what inadvertently keeps you inside the box. All the while you think you're working towards freedom.

That's the matrix.

Things are simple. Not easy, but simple. What you need to win is before you.
  • #198
  • May 15, 2011 3:55am May 15, 2011 3:55am
Quoting nubcake
both are in the bin and gone forever. but google parrondo's paradox if you haven't already.

as for the rest of your post. i don't know what your issue is, so perhaps just put me on ignore and be done with it.
Ah gotcha ye i did manage to look over it, although i found it by reading the indis vs. price thread...

There was a link to a thread in trade2win to a fella "john1".
I did end up in contact with him with regards to the so called paradox.

Just wondering if you've read some of this guys comments:

http://www.forexfactory.com/tradevector

Some folks say he talks BS, but then again most (threads) on this forum do aswell

As for problems i havent got any with you.
  • #199
  • May 15, 2011 3:58am May 15, 2011 3:58am
Quoting Trankuility
Here's what I've found.

Purposely thinking inside the box transports you outside the box.
I agree. I think the first step is for each person to define their "box", like someone mentioned its pretty much multiple boxes. Everyone is in their own...

Once you know 100% whats under the hood you can pretty much come up with all sorts of improvements.

And finally i do believe in heavily testing all those ideas very thoroughly, be them old or new.
  • #200
  • May 15, 2011 11:50am May 15, 2011 11:50am
Here is a question that may lead to some critical thinking about what lies outside the not-well-defined box (kind of gets back to my post about more than one box).

What roll does character play in trading, and how you view the box? By character, I mean your attitude (e.g., negative or positive impact on your trading and those around you), your moral and ethical beliefs (e.g., stewardship of your money, allowing greed or fear to take over your trading), willingness to accept responsibility (e.g., nothing works and no one is profitable, vs. I need to work harder and assume that my losses are my fault), willingness to take a risk (e.g., I delay taking a trade vs. enter when my trading process says to enter), etc.

If the box is just technical or fundamental stuff, then I think a big piece about becoming a trader will be missing. Besides, anyone who has a new TA indicator or FA approach is not going to share here.
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