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Elliot wave, Harmonic And Ichimoku in CHINESE STYLE

  • #5,081
  • May 14, 2011 6:54am May 14, 2011 6:54am
Update EUR with more Detail...
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Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #5,082
  • May 14, 2011 7:38am May 14, 2011 7:38am
Quoting Raza
I still believe this is a Leading Diagonal...

Not even a double Zz... Vincy
Hi Raza,

sentiment data as well as COT-data are against you.

At the end of last week we had 96% Euro bulls and after the drop they were around 85%. The nature of a leading diagonal is indecisiveness.

See the COT data here and tel me about the likelihood of a long decline in EURUSD:
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  • #5,083
  • May 14, 2011 7:42am May 14, 2011 7:42am
Quoting budak baru
Hello guys.im always newbie in EW counting.so i hope we can share our idea regarding this style.this is my first euro count.diagonal triangle.
see my answer already given to Raza here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post4617981
  • #5,084
  • May 14, 2011 8:37am May 14, 2011 8:37am
Hi, all,

Euro got big hit, drop with 900 plus pips. Before euro was too hot, too sex girl, too many followers.

Now, it is balanced. Only, brave boys like to chase her, brave boys never forget her.

What would happen for euro in next week? Downside loss a bit of momentum. My Wave counting is here.

Cheers!
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  • #5,085
  • May 14, 2011 10:55am May 14, 2011 10:55am
Seeing a lot of bullishness in this thread. Guys, euro is in a clear downward channel and closed below the 1.4160 level and the weekly trendline. In my opinion, its a sell until it is able to close back above thos levels and above the channel. At times where the count can be uncertain, it's better just to play it with technical levels. Best of luck to everyone.
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #5,086
  • May 14, 2011 11:43am May 14, 2011 11:43am
Quoting RamsesII
Seeing a lot of bullishness in this thread. Guys, euro is in a clear downward channel and closed below the 1.4160 level and the weekly trendline. In my opinion, its a sell until it is able to close back above thos levels and above the channel. At times where the count can be uncertain, it's better just to play it with technical levels. Best of luck to everyone.
I thnk its in the psyche to want to see capitulation for the nxt move lower, but you are right...

Personally, If we dont see above 4160....then the 37's will come a callin...I think Monday, if a nice move either direction will be beneficial.
  • #5,087
  • May 14, 2011 4:09pm May 14, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Raza,

sentiment data as well as COT-data are against you.

At the end of last week we had 96% Euro bulls and after the drop they were around 85%. The nature of a leading diagonal is indecisiveness.

See the COT data here and tel me about the likelihood of a long decline in EURUSD:
I dont know much about fundamentals or COT data... but here is what I read and believed in from past till now that could happen.

You are favouring Dollar, VS Euro.....

What about SDR?

-------------x------------------------x------------------x-------------


If not the dollar, then who?
If the dollar is such a questionable investment, why do central banks continue to buy and hold U.S. dollars? The answer is simple; the U.S. dollar has traditionally been one of the most resilient of the major currencies and has long been considered a "safe harbor" during uncertain times.
Even though this reputation has been tarnished of late, a fundamental question remains; if not the dollar, what other option is there?

The euro? Let's be honest, with emergency bailouts for three Eurozone nations already and counting, the euro carries significant risk.

The British pound? While it can be argued the pound was the global currency before the dollar, the days of the pound serving in this capacity are long gone. Ultimately, anointing any single currency as the reserve currency leaves the investor vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations.
As you can imagine, China has been less-than-thrilled with the Federal Reserve's ultra-low interest rate policy and the resulting low-dollar valuation over the past few years.
Track currencies

One possible alternative is a "basket" comprising several currencies and even certain commodities. Using the concept of a basket in this manner minimizes the impact one single currency or commodity could have on a central bank's reserve assets.
Interestingly, such a basket already exists in the form of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) available through the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF recently proposed the idea of using these synthetic assets to serve not only as reserve funds, but also as the means for pricing commodities to negate the impact of a weakening dollar.
So far, the idea of SDRs to replace the dollar has never really progressed beyond the discussion stage, but should countries like China abandon the dollar in favor of SDRs, the impact on the dollar's value could be significant.
For starters, the value of the dollar would plummet and consumers would face higher prices.
Assuming the government could even find buyers willing to purchase U.S. bonds, it would be necessary to dramatically increase yields in order to entice investors.
This would add greatly to overall borrowing costs and could compel the government of the day to implement drastic spending cuts to close the deficit gap.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,088
  • May 14, 2011 4:18pm May 14, 2011 4:18pm
Quoting budak baru
Hello guys.im always newbie in EW counting.so i hope we can share our idea regarding this style.this is my first euro count.diagonal triangle.
There are 2 kinds of Diagonal Triangles.

Sixer and I seeing Leading diagonal.

Infinitius and others seeing Ending Diagonal.

Vincy is having a Double Zz.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,089
  • May 14, 2011 5:37pm May 14, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting Raza
There are 2 kinds of Diagonal Triangles.

Sixer and I seeing Leading diagonal.

Infinitius and others seeing Ending Diagonal.

Vincy is having a Double Zz.

Welcome to EWT....LOL....the part that makes EW great is when a solid impulse is established.....but until then its a rear view mirror.... Im all for it, but have been burnt with it as well
  • #5,090
  • May 14, 2011 11:22pm May 14, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting Raza
There are 2 kinds of Diagonal Triangles.

Sixer and I seeing Leading diagonal.

Infinitius and others seeing Ending Diagonal.

Vincy is having a Double Zz.

Hi Raza,

this it what I saw:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jIjpD8Bybd...ish+eurusd.gif
  • #5,091
  • May 14, 2011 11:48pm May 14, 2011 11:48pm
Quoting Raza
I dont know much about fundamentals or COT data... but here is what I read and believed in from past till now that could happen.

You are favouring Dollar, VS Euro.....

What about SDR?

-------------x------------------------x------------------x-------------


If not the dollar, then who?
If the dollar is such a questionable investment, why do central banks continue to buy and hold U.S. dollars? The answer is simple; the U.S. dollar has traditionally been one of the most resilient of the major currencies and has long been considered...


Hehe, the more people talk about the doom and demise of the USD, the more it will not happen - I like sentiment :-)

SDR are there since Bretton Woods. And talk about the USD to be replaced by it or by other currencies happen every here and then.

Interestingly: as no one wanted to buy obviously USD over the last months, it seemed that everybody wanted to buy US treasury. Hmmmmm.......
Foreigners have increased their US treasury holdings to an all time high of about 2.675 trillion.

Do all this US treasury buyers have an interest in dumping the USD? I do not believe.
  • #5,092
  • May 15, 2011 12:03am May 15, 2011 12:03am
Quoting infinitus
Hehe, the more people talk about the doom and demise of the USD, the more it will not happen - I like sentiment :-)

SDR are there since Bretton Woods. And talk about the USD to be replaced by it or by other currencies happen every here and then.

Interestingly: as no one wanted to buy obviously USD over the last months, it seemed that everybody wanted to buy US treasury. Hmmmmm.......
Foreigners have increased their US treasury holdings to an all time high of about 2.675 trillion.

Do all this US treasury buyers have an interest in dumping the...
Good evening/ morning ...whatever it is.

Who knows ....Guess time will tell...

What is your DOWN ultimate target for E/U?
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,093
  • May 15, 2011 12:13am May 15, 2011 12:13am
Quoting needpips
Welcome to EWT....LOL....the part that makes EW great is when a solid impulse is established.....but until then its a rear view mirror.... Im all for it, but have been burnt with it as well
GREETINGS, N.P

We can only do educated guesses....

My entry is gonna burn me only for 10 pips....No more than that on

E/U using E.W.T..... and thats for swing set up. So no worries.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,094
  • May 15, 2011 1:29am May 15, 2011 1:29am
Quoting Raza
Good evening/ morning ...whatever it is.

Who knows ....Guess time will tell...

What is your DOWN ultimate target for E/U?


I have since a few days the idea of a gigantic triangle where EUR and USD floating around each other (maybe kind of eternal triangle?), because I have a theory that both currencies are heavily dependent on each other and are both to big to fail.

Since the triangle is slightly upsloping at the moment the target for this move down may be stopped shortly after parity.

If it drops significantly further down, then I am back to Prechters scenario, which offers much more downside. I had initially targets between 0.65 and 0.85. In case of a destruction of the EUR much much deeper.

Here once again Prechter view and my view:


For a good overview of actual long term counts see my blog here:


http://singulorum001.blogspot.com/20...f-various.html


(sorry for pop ups (from Dukascopy) at my blog - do actually not know where they stem from in the code)
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  • #5,095
  • May 15, 2011 1:36am May 15, 2011 1:36am
infinitius,

read this article and you will come to another currency outlook:

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/div...?storyid=16081

Sixer
  • #5,096
  • May 15, 2011 2:20am May 15, 2011 2:20am
Quoting Sixer
infinitius,

read this article and you will come to another currency outlook:

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/div...?storyid=16081

Sixer

Never ever LOL

Goldseiten can be seen as highly biased. Right now they feel good, because the gold mania is on track........

Right now Gold (as other asset classes too) is set for a nice decline.

I know that there is a count out for gold, that "only" sees us drop to 1000-1200. We will see at that point.

But I can not see the connection between Gold and EURUSD. Both currencies are in a very bad shape, and the question is not wich of the two is the stronger but which is the weaker one.

After nearly 900pips drop in EURUSD I see much more drop in the cards (technically), especialy when I see that the USD bulls only inclined by a meager 10% in the last week up to around 16%. When we see the bulls have reached 85-95%, then might be the time to change view again (like last summer at 1.18, when EURUSD dropped in a stampede by 3400pips.

We will see.....
  • #5,097
  • May 15, 2011 9:15am May 15, 2011 9:15am
IN GOD I TRUST
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  • #5,098
  • May 15, 2011 10:20am May 15, 2011 10:20am
Quoting japfx
IN GOD I TRUST
If we do go down in an ending diagonl, I'd prefer to to be wave C since you don't often see it finish that way in wave As. I've added this as the alternate. We will know by the end of this week if the main count in white is correct as we would have to see a very strong impulsive move to the downside.
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #5,099
  • May 16, 2011 10:57am May 16, 2011 10:57am
Quoting RamsesII
If we do go down in an ending diagonl, I'd prefer to to be wave C since you don't often see it finish that way in wave As. I've added this as the alternate. We will know by the end of this week if the main count in white is correct as we would have to see a very strong impulsive move to the downside.
possible wave ii appears to be in the process of completing
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #5,100
  • May 16, 2011 11:31am May 16, 2011 11:31am
wave 2 then wave three should bring about a definite new low....maybe that LTL that looms around 1.37xx






Quoting RamsesII
possible wave ii appears to be in the process of completing
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