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Better-than-the-wormhole 555 replies

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The WoRmHoLe

  • #12,481
  • May 13, 2011 11:11am May 13, 2011 11:11am
Quoting wormboy
It doesn't mean anything unless tomorrow's close is bearish my friend. This was what that had got many people in so much trouble buying off the D1 hammer off the D1 EU & D1 GU a few days ago. You need a confirmation bearish/bullish candle to trigger the validity of those hammers/pinbars.
And it is not a double top. A double top is a top reversal pattern, which in this case is not. The first wick highlighted on the 18th & 19th of April came on the back of a consolidation period in a downtrend. The current daily wick at the 75.5 resistance...
See what I mean.
I honestly hope people will unlearn that single pinbar/hammer/doji bollocks. It's like a coin toss when using them without confirmation candles. They can be very costly, especially when you take them from the HTF.
Attached Image
Thank You
  • #12,482
  • May 13, 2011 11:15am May 13, 2011 11:15am
ok better if i don't look at those charts.... eheheh else i will get rather angry
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #12,483
  • May 13, 2011 11:19am May 13, 2011 11:19am
Quoting dario1002
ok better if i don't look at those charts.... eheheh else i will get rather angry
Being right while not trading is a bit like masturbating without ejaculating.

But, you shouldn't be angry, you should be happy regardless that you were right. You did the right thing all day today & if that's a rarity for you, you might want to make notes of what you saw today that made those predictions right. They'll come in handy in the future for sure.
Thank You
  • #12,484
  • May 13, 2011 11:25am May 13, 2011 11:25am
Quoting dario1002
the thing is that i was ready to short from r2... as it looked like a bearflag forming... If u add that usdx is at 74.91 and eurx is at 110.88 and them both are marked on my charts as S/R lines...
when i and u disagree on something and i am about to pull the trigger i usually don't place the trade. Most of the times u were right of course, but still

that is what i saw today... not much else... if consider that we are in a downtrend.... then that was just as pure and simple as it is... plus the H&S to me looked more like a bear flag (as i posted before). The combinations with eurx and dx when they are respectively to some S/R is usually rather strong and explosive.... but let's face it.. i chickened out
well... one more brick to my self consciousness building process
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #12,485
  • May 13, 2011 11:27am May 13, 2011 11:27am
Quoting wormboy
Only 95 pips daily range so far, still plenty of room left before eod methinks & I personally think 6154 is on the way, but that's just me.

Good luck tho.
Check mate.



And that W1 usdx now has a massive bullish engulfing pattern.
The ship is turning like the Titanic, but it's turning. Now we can plan ahead since the bottom on the HTF is also in place.
Bye guys.
Thank You
  • #12,486
  • May 13, 2011 11:32am May 13, 2011 11:32am
The Parabolic Sar has now broken on weekly on GU. When it broke to the upside at the end of January, it generated over 800 pips. Lets see what the downside brings GL all and hope you have a nice weekend.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #12,487
  • May 13, 2011 11:56am May 13, 2011 11:56am
Azim actually it did slide, while I was in traffic, however had my mini asus with 4g with me on the passenger sit so closed at -44 pips with 2 lots, kinda was pissed, because with normal access to my tradestation I would flip short at the same time when exiting, because downside was pretty clear as well.

Still got nice 73 pips (normally I would close at H5 level on such momentum buying, however I missed the best spot cause was driving home) on the loonie with 3 lots there, because PB + daily cam LONG was triggered at a strong support level, my entry is right there on the chart. all in all the day is not great, and the reason is that I chickened out of the stellar short on gold - it was a freaking classic WP/MP retest - rejected, and finally ejected to 1480 area ... the range for today is done and who's there to blame but me anyway?

Also at the end of the day I realize that trading requires patience and time, and I got kinda limited resources on both, because of the high-paced job in the oil company.

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/5409/looniel.png
  • #12,488
  • May 13, 2011 12:02pm May 13, 2011 12:02pm
and once again Azim, appreciate your input as always, it's great to be a part of the group you got going here! Have a good one over weekend and do come back next week please!
  • #12,489
  • May 13, 2011 12:08pm May 13, 2011 12:08pm
Hi azim is that Buy guys or Bye guys
cheers ray
  • #12,490
  • May 13, 2011 2:35pm May 13, 2011 2:35pm
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/1043/usdxdaily.png

USDX D1 chart with a possible scenario considering todays strong momentum and engulfer on W1 according to Azim, I think definitely with a strong close today this will mean more upside for USDX. a equals to b on the chart mark up.
  • #12,491
  • May 13, 2011 3:02pm May 13, 2011 3:02pm
http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/7424/ejchart.png

currently very good R/R on EJ, it's very close to completing it's AMR and also channel bottom, so right now upside beats downside like at least 10 to 1, so I will want to see it bottom out early next week at 113.00-113.40 and see how PA reacts in that range. I highlighted the two very likely target zones, if we confirm reversal and bottoming around 113.
  • #12,492
  • May 13, 2011 3:08pm May 13, 2011 3:08pm
Quote
dude your balance is too much..r u playing for bank or personal institute ??

thanks! I do my own trading in metals and on FX, however I also do options/futures in energies for the oil company that I work for. This is generally to hedge against price fluctuations, however also some months I manage to pull off some decent returns on crude futures - make money for the company and the side bonus, which is always nice. Still more money this year was made by just simple stock pile and hold strategy, meaning that we basically store oil and sell it once prices reach new highs.
  • #12,493
  • May 14, 2011 3:19am May 14, 2011 3:19am
http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/7...uarterlyd1.png

Here's cable D1 quarterly analysis with S/Rs. Some comments:

1) PA was rejected at midpivot @ 6740.
2) PA was rejected with D1 PB @ R1
3) 6150 cracked so downside to expand
4) PA follows an expanding triangle on D1 if zoomed in
5) quarterly pivot is @ 5959 - the next very likely target on the downmove
6) PA around QP is important will indicate PA structure for the remainder of May & June
7) 1000 point swing from A to B likely to be mirrored by C to D swing of 1000 points, which derives us 5700 target on the downside before any serious retrace.
8) 5700 is also an important quarterly mid pivot.

Currently I personally will look for retest of QP, for right now selling rallies seems a good strategy, once QP is reached we can expect a decent bounce = good to buy back at QP level, and then depending on QP PA will decide - break below QP -> 5700, if QP holds -> look @ buying dips if PA reverses @ QP.
  • #12,494
  • May 14, 2011 3:33am May 14, 2011 3:33am
I don't feel like doing another chart with such detail on Euro / EJ / dragon, however here are the QPs:

1) EU - 1.3760
2) EJ - 114.42
3) dragon - 130.44

As you can see EJ is slightly below and dragon currently @ QP, so it's kinda at crossroads right now. if EJ slips below current levels it's all the way to 110. dragon - 125. However current R/R is favoring upside, still I can't decipher how EJ/GJ upside correlates with EU/GU downside for now, there must be some strong action in the yen (rebound) to open that upside on crosses.
  • #12,495
  • May 14, 2011 4:10am May 14, 2011 4:10am
Enlightening views
cheers and have a good weekend


Quoting ruffryders
Here's cable D1 quarterly analysis with S/Rs. Some comments:

1) PA was rejected at midpivot @ 6740.
2) PA was rejected with D1 PB @ R1
3) 6150 cracked so downside to expand
4) PA follows an expanding triangle on D1 if zoomed in
5) quarterly pivot is @ 5959 - the next very likely target on the downmove
6) PA around QP is important will indicate PA structure for the remainder of May & June
7) 1000 point swing from A to B likely to be mirrored by C to D swing of 1000 points, which derives us 5700 target on the downside before...
  • #12,496
  • Edited 5:27am May 14, 2011 5:16am | Edited 5:27am
loonie H4 update - looking for the upside to expand next week and retest upper band of the channel @ 0.98-0.99, looks a decent buyback from 9640-9680

supp to the charts quarterly S/Rs

1.0333R3
1.0167R2
0.9933R1
0.9767quarter pivot
0.9533S1
0.9367S2
0.9133S3




http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/9...ieh4retest.png

EW confirmation of further upside:

http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/4353/usdcadm30ew.png
  • #12,497
  • May 14, 2011 12:29pm May 14, 2011 12:29pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Blimey, It actually went to 16150 as you said!!!

I was thinking 6280 should hold, stronf support broken.
We are in the account killer zone 160- 16250 again.. I see it all the way to 160, your thoughts?


ta
ams


Quoting wormboy
See what I mean.
I honestly hope people will unlearn that single pinbar/hammer/doji bollocks. It's like a coin toss when using them without confirmation candles. They can be very costly, especially when you take them from the HTF.
  • #12,498
  • May 15, 2011 12:12pm May 15, 2011 12:12pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...al-system.html

I think this is worth checking out.
  • #12,499
  • May 15, 2011 1:18pm May 15, 2011 1:18pm
FYI, here's the analysis I did on euro and IEURX.

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/9485/ieurxd1.png

http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/6094/euforks.png

http://img852.imageshack.us/img852/193/euew.png
  • #12,500
  • May 15, 2011 9:20pm May 15, 2011 9:20pm
Very good analysis here!

My take over GU is correction of last leg on 4h til 618 (6375) or 786% (6463).
We just had a 3 drive pattern so we should see a little bounce from here. Then further down move to complete a larger AB=CD of 480 pips each leg.
(Goodman ref).

If yesteday low dosen't hold, then strike to FE 1.68 of last ABCD to 6030 in confluence whit 88.6 of move of 5936/6745.

Let's see good trading!
Mattz
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Click to Enlarge Name: GU 15 mai 2011.jpg Size: 273 KB
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