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vsa with Malcolm

  • #19,621
  • May 12, 2011 5:45pm May 12, 2011 5:45pm
Hope this helps a bit.......I probably wouldn`t trade at this time of day/night. Great help fo me was to go over pres78 charts again and again, where he explains how certain bars ( their spread, their close, high and low ) influence the following price action.

Actually, to show bar by bar how price reacts to high volume bars and their levels is IMHO unique to this type of trading - it adds further confidence.

My best wishes for success.

Regards,


___________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #19,622
  • May 12, 2011 5:50pm May 12, 2011 5:50pm
thanks pres....yes thats exactly what happen...was bias to down ,saw the 3 down bars on high volume and figured "short"!..thanks for the explanation...any read on whereaj may be headed?...angain thanks, really helped me out there...appreciate your time....TX
  • #19,623
  • May 12, 2011 6:01pm May 12, 2011 6:01pm
really like the chart you posted!! appreciate it!!! makes alot of sense...gotta get to where i can see this in foresight!!!...thanks to everyone who helped out on this...will probably just close trade and call it a lessoned learned!!!....back to the book!!LOL..best regards, TX
  • #19,624
  • May 12, 2011 6:03pm May 12, 2011 6:03pm
Quoting Trader_X
thanks pres....yes thats exactly what happen...was bias to down ,saw the 3 down bars on high volume and figured "short"!..thanks for the explanation...any read on whereaj may be headed?...angain thanks, really helped me out there...appreciate your time....TX
None what-so ever to be honest I don't spend much time watching JPY pairs as I don't trade them and I do not like the way they move.

My feel looking at the 1hr chart is that we head back up some at least... look at the daily bar... increased volume close well of the low with what good be a buying tail. If Friday is an upday then I think we head back up to test this years high. Today's volume is actually highest volume all week making it a possible SO and if tommorow confirms buyers then this years high shouldn't be a stretch. Strength in today's bar needs to be confirmed though.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,625
  • May 12, 2011 6:08pm May 12, 2011 6:08pm
ok thanks again for all your help...just re-read your post and makes complete sense..straight out of the MTM book...i gotta lot to learn i can see...regards, TX
  • #19,626
  • May 12, 2011 6:10pm May 12, 2011 6:10pm
Quoting Trader_X
really like the chart you posted!! appreciate it!!! makes alot of sense...gotta get to where i can see this in foresight!!!...thanks to everyone who helped out on this...will probably just close trade and call it a lessoned learned!!!....back to the book!!LOL..best regards, TX
SM gave you a couple of nice outs of your short... Volume dropped off on that 3rd downbar and then we almost englufed it on the next bar. Then after we headed up they gave you back 26 pips on that no selling pressure bar...
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,627
  • May 12, 2011 6:23pm May 12, 2011 6:23pm
thats the thing...look at my chart i got increased volume on that 3rd bar down!!! it was the selling factor for me...figured strong down candle on higher volume was a good clue to go down further!!! now i see , thanks to your post, that isnt enough to draw a decision from...i just completely screwed this up!!LOL...but thanks to ya'lls post at least i learned something from it!!! regards, TX...edit...WOW...im at home on my laptop and that bar on this fxcm chart is lower...but on fxcm at my office its higher!!! geez...that sucks!! probably see alot of that though....shouldnt of mattered though..reading everybody's post i can see there was plenty of evedince to show that a short was not a good trade to take, regardless of the bar...clear case of inexperience on my part!!!
  • #19,628
  • May 12, 2011 6:29pm May 12, 2011 6:29pm
yes pres i see that daily high volume bar that closed well off the low...does NOT promote a short trade does it!!! LOL!!!..thanks again for all the help guys!!! TX
  • #19,629
  • May 12, 2011 7:51pm May 12, 2011 7:51pm
Daily looks suspect to me, squat with higher volume, see what tomorrow brings.
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  • #19,630
  • May 12, 2011 8:06pm May 12, 2011 8:06pm
It looks like a rather clear rejection off the top trend line eu 2H and 4H. Should we expect heavy volume pushing down ?
  • #19,631
  • Edited 9:25pm May 12, 2011 8:08pm | Edited 9:25pm
Hi all,

Malcolm and everyone else, I have a question.

First off, thank you Malcolm for this fabulous thread. I have been reading and following this forum since the start, and finally managed to open an account and join to learn and to hopefully teach after I learn like everyone here.

On the 8h, 4h, and 1hr shows effort to rise or maybe a no demand testing 1.4270; closing BELOW the high volume down bar triggers, has been rejected across those timeframes.I remember reading in MTM that background strength is very important along with what most of you say that trigger (highest volume) is as important.

So, this is what happened on my charts; the daily has closed ABOVE yesterday's close and april 5th's trigger, and april 17th's shake out.

So my question; was yesterday's daily's move a sign of strength to see a possible up move back to 1.45 rather than below 1.4120 given that the daily bar has closed above all background strength, while the smaller timeframe shows sign of weakness?

I just couldn't resist and needed to ask this.

Thanks guys, and hope to meet most of you here.
  • #19,632
  • May 12, 2011 9:02pm May 12, 2011 9:02pm
managed to salvage the my bad aj trade,..closed with -8 pips...i can live with that!!! thanks to evryone here for the guidance...best regards, TX
  • #19,633
  • May 12, 2011 10:25pm May 12, 2011 10:25pm
1.4230 is our trigger line .. if this breaks tomorrow in us session then 4320 / 4400 could be target . I will look for break up on high volume ( mark up) and then test

However the up candle that ended at london close was not broken to the upside. ... and the volume was pretty high , so watching this carefully.

We have had a large down move and some form of retrace should take place.
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Quoting SimpleDev
Daily looks suspect to me, squat with higher volume, see what tomorrow brings.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,634
  • May 12, 2011 10:46pm May 12, 2011 10:46pm
Here is my Wcykoff wave analysis & gameplan for EU..

Game plan:
1: test on PS
2: Rally to AR point
3: Break AR & test of breakout..
4 Target to 38 & 50% fib recovery level (4450 & 4500 respectively, round it off..)

Exceptions: Since EU is now sitting on 4200 level with appearnace of a basic test this morning, It may ignore tested onto PS altogether. But of coz UK open markdown should be expected then we mostly like have a meaningful spring off on PS.

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rgds:
Kave
  • #19,635
  • May 13, 2011 1:55am May 13, 2011 1:55am
I hope this entry to hold till it hit 1.4500
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  • #19,636
  • May 13, 2011 3:09am May 13, 2011 3:09am
Is it going to go up? But now just struggling?!

A: Down bar, high vol, and the next bar is up. It isn't seems to be selling.

B: Struggling bar. high vol, closing in the middle and the next bar is down. Some weakness here.

C: Up bar with higher volume.

D: Shakeout bar

E:Test/NS bar.
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  • #19,637
  • May 13, 2011 5:58am May 13, 2011 5:58am
As Malc would say marked up in Asian to be sold in London. Break .41 and see .39 next stop IMO anyways.
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  • #19,638
  • May 13, 2011 6:06am May 13, 2011 6:06am
Quoting Evak
Here is my Wcykoff wave analysis & gameplan for EU..

Game plan:
1: test on PS
2: Rally to AR point
3: Break AR & test of breakout..
4 Target to 38 & 50% fib recovery level (4450 & 4500 respectively, round it off..)

Exceptions: Since EU is now sitting on 4200 level with appearnace of a basic test this morning, It may ignore tested onto PS altogether. But of coz UK open markdown should be expected then we mostly like have a meaningful spring off on PS.

Attachment

rgds:
Kave
update:
After breakout of AR level we have a potential test of a breakout soon with volume tapering lower...a mini-spring is also possible.
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  • #19,639
  • May 13, 2011 7:08am May 13, 2011 7:08am
30 min looks dicey

no result on effort to rise ... we were in a down trend of london highs.

This could be major weakness before news , caused me to close long

Missed my tp by 5 pip *!!!***!!! ...lol..... still 60 pip better than kick in arse

If price breaks 1.4300 in us i will re- enter long on a test with tp 1.4380. BUT for now i consider that 30 to be weakness

Below us 1.4250 is my trigger line , that breaks i will enter sells on no demands / ut on a 5 min into 4150
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Quoting Evak
update:
After breakout of AR level we have a potential test of a breakout soon with volume tapering lower...a mini-spring is also possible.
Attachment
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,640
  • May 13, 2011 7:39am May 13, 2011 7:39am
Quoting Evak
update:
After breakout of AR level we have a potential test of a breakout soon with volume tapering lower...a mini-spring is also possible.
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Price was mark down on increase volume prior to the news, I was anticipating a spring so entry was made just prior....

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rgds,
Kave
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