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Better-than-the-wormhole 555 replies

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The WoRmHoLe

  • #12,361
  • May 12, 2011 1:50pm May 12, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting ams
Wormie, What do you see now. You still hold the same opinion or any change there? Would you be taking any trades now.

ta
ams
Hi ams

Still the same opinion regarding fibre & cable, bearish on both. I was just looking at cable chart, even the intraday bias hadn't changed, went up & tested yesterday's low @6321 exactly to the pip & turned back down. The euro went a bit further but found the resistance I posted last week @4258 a bit too much & also turned back down

Quoting wormboy
4335 was it vlady. We done for the week.

Next minor I have is @4258, major @4195. Let's leave some for next week


It could well push a bit higher, but given it's so close to eod & absolutely nothing on the HTF to suggest the drop had ceased, I'm not convinced in this upmove at all. Looks like a normal retrace to me.
And no, I'm not trading. The short taken way back at FO was a cheeky punt, I won't be burning cash anymore
Reading the news re the King's appointment got me all excited lol
Thank You
  • #12,362
  • May 12, 2011 2:16pm May 12, 2011 2:16pm
USDX D1 pinbar & double top formation @ monthly R1 level, do your own homework though.
http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/5959/usdx.png
  • #12,363
  • May 12, 2011 2:36pm May 12, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting ruffryders
USDX D1 pinbar & double top formation @ monthly R1 level, do your own homework though.
http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/5959/usdx.png
It doesn't mean anything unless tomorrow's close is bearish my friend. This was what that had got many people in so much trouble buying off the D1 hammer off the D1 EU & D1 GU a few days ago. You need a confirmation bearish/bullish candle to trigger the validity of those hammers/pinbars.
And it is not a double top. A double top is a top reversal pattern, which in this case is not. The first wick highlighted on the 18th & 19th of April came on the back of a consolidation period in a downtrend. The current daily wick at the 75.5 resistance is days after upmove off the 72.77 lows. You'd want to zoom out the daily a little bit more to see that there are significant difference where the 2 wicks are.
And double tops, just like H&S are not valid patterns until the "neckline" is broken.
Sorry I have to sound this out as there's a broad misconception on how to succesfully trade the patterns.

Good luck.
Thank You
  • #12,364
  • May 12, 2011 2:45pm May 12, 2011 2:45pm
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/7357/usdxppz.png

ok Azim I hear you, we zoom out, and by looks of it, the 75.62 is PPZ anyway, so rejection of recent MR1 and 75.62 being a PPZ at least suggests that gains on usdx could be short lived for now.
  • #12,365
  • May 12, 2011 3:15pm May 12, 2011 3:15pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Cheers wormie! Your knowledge matters as you do this for a living much better than I could ever do.

You seems right this move is more of a profit taking from the dollar bulls. QE2 is coming to end. Smart money is getting out of their trades, and rest are looking for some direction. Market is expecting a lot of volatility June onwards. To be honest it has started already.


Yeah, lucky scott got contract at the age of 60. No retirement for him yet!!

With all your interests and command over english it seems you are more or less connected to the UK?

ta
ams






Quoting wormboy
Hi ams

Still the same opinion regarding fibre & cable, bearish on both. I was just looking at cable chart, even the intraday bias hadn't changed, went up & tested yesterday's low @6321 exactly to the pip & turned back down. The euro went a bit further but found the resistance I posted last week @4258 a bit too much & also turned back down



It could well push a bit higher, but given it's so close to eod & absolutely nothing on the HTF to suggest the drop had ceased, I'm not convinced in this upmove at all. Looks like a normal retrace to me.
And...
  • #12,366
  • May 12, 2011 3:16pm May 12, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting ruffryders
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/7357/usdxppz.png

ok Azim I hear you, we zoom out, and by looks of it, the 75.62 is PPZ anyway, so rejection of recent MR1 and 75.62 being a PPZ at least suggests that gains on usdx could be short lived for now.
I've pointed out 75.5 resistance since yesterday before we tested it today, where did you think I got it from

But that's not exactly the point of my previous post is it. Again I will stress that even if the dx falls, it is not because of a double top formation & taking a reverse position based on one single candle is very dangerous even if it's coming off a strong resistance level. Only a bearish close tomorrow, will confirm a rejection of which you are anticipating.
A counter anticipation would be for you to turn to the W1 have a look at bullish engulfer which is forming on the DX. Looks tempting to bet the whole farm on dollar bulls no? Not really, because unless it closes like it looks right now or higher, just like the D1 pinbar you mentioned, both are not confirmed & means absolutely nothing.
I'd really suggest to wait till tomorrow's close before deciding.

Have a good one
Thank You
  • #12,367
  • May 12, 2011 3:22pm May 12, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting ams

Yeah, lucky scott got contract at the age of 60. No retirement for him yet!!

With all your interests and command over english it seems you are more or less connected to the UK?

ta
ams
Hope not, old whiskey nose over the other end of m62 is still at it at what now, 70? lol our King is still very young!
I used to live in Cardiff years back mate, that probably has to do with the interest I have in the UK
Thank You
  • #12,368
  • May 12, 2011 3:26pm May 12, 2011 3:26pm
Azim agreed completely that it's prolly the best. Im currently looking on D1 PB on gold/crude and looking to initiate some longs during asian session, depending on todays close, I think gold has enough time before important options/futures settlement date in June to rally and reach 1600.

Also on another note, pretty interesting that EU initiated it's steep decline right before may options/futures settlement days in US, which were 5th and 6th of May 2011. After all it kinda reminds me that the time I put into the options game is worthwhile .
  • #12,369
  • May 12, 2011 3:27pm May 12, 2011 3:27pm
i just hope the hourly bearish flag on eu and gu won't trigger during asia time...

will wait for the day close in 30 mins and then go to sleep

see ya tomorrow guys
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #12,370
  • May 12, 2011 3:34pm May 12, 2011 3:34pm
Quoting wormboy
He's back!!


"Liverpool handing Kenny Dalglish a three-year contract means the King has risen at last.
At last, the King is risen. After the most tumultuous two years in Liverpool’s history, Anfield can finally stand united behind the one man who inspires the complete faith of Boot Room, boardroom, dressing room and stands."


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pS0a-...eature=related
lol - what took them so long! Top 4 next year?
  • #12,371
  • May 12, 2011 3:38pm May 12, 2011 3:38pm
Quoting ruffryders
Azim agreed completely that it's prolly the best. Im currently looking on D1 PB on gold/crude and looking to initiate some longs during asian session, depending on todays close, I think gold has enough time before important options/futures settlement date in June to rally and reach 1600.

Also on another note, pretty interesting that EU initiated it's steep decline right before may options/futures settlement days in US, which were 5th and 6th of May 2011. After all it kinda reminds me that the time I put into the options game is worthwhile . ...
D1 comms ie gold/crude looks to be all over the place atm. Bearish engulfer two day back, likely pb today's close. Looks to me like we'll be consolidating for a little while likely. You're very brave to position yourself under these circumstances on a Friday

Anyway, good luck with your trade my friend
Right I'm off, time to watch some porn. Bye!
Thank You
  • #12,372
  • May 12, 2011 3:39pm May 12, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting bbakker
lol - what took them so long! Top 4 next year?
TOP!
Thank You
  • #12,373
  • May 12, 2011 3:39pm May 12, 2011 3:39pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
The media says he is 60 so we can take their word for it. Although age doesn't matter to this boy's spirit.

Ah, that explains it.

I do not see any point in trading yet. Useless day other than 1-2 scalps i did. Market is on a SL hunt kind of mode. So i'll wait until you trade

Cheers
ams



Quoting wormboy
Hope not, old whiskey nose over the other end of m62 is still at it at what now, 70? lol our King is still very young!
I used to live in Cardiff years back mate, that probably has to do with the interest I have in the UK
  • #12,374
  • May 12, 2011 3:42pm May 12, 2011 3:42pm
Quoting ams
The media says he is 60 so we can take their word for it. Although age doesn't matter to this boy's spirit.

Ah, that explains it.

I do not see any point in trading yet. Useless day other than 1-2 scalps i did. Market is on a SL hunt kind of mode. So i'll wait until you trade

Cheers
ams
the 70 year old whiskey nose I was referring to was Alex Ferguson mate
Thank You
  • #12,375
  • May 12, 2011 3:52pm May 12, 2011 3:52pm
Quote
You're very brave to position yourself under these circumstances on a Friday

be the first one to get in and the first one to get out, I like to positions myself early before hustlers get the trade crowded too much. when john paulson hit hard on the mortgage cds everyone thought he was crazy, now look what's he up to today.
  • #12,376
  • May 12, 2011 4:11pm May 12, 2011 4:11pm
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Glad, I had to check his age again thought maybe I am getting to much into charts.

Serves him (Alex) right

Quoting wormboy
the 70 year old whiskey nose I was referring to was Alex Ferguson mate
  • #12,377
  • May 12, 2011 6:01pm May 12, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting wormboy
TOP!
You want some money on that... I will give you 4/1 because I am nice like that
  • #12,378
  • May 13, 2011 12:05am May 13, 2011 12:05am
Quoting sailor68
I just take a trade, short Nzd/Usd according the last 1H candle (i was stop at BE with this strong retrace) this setup look like yesterday with Gu, confluence of WP/MP and DP we are just above this confluence, Stop Loss 0.8020
Hi all,

Nzd/Usd close my short at the MP (+30), look like Bull flag 1H, wait LO for next trade.
Trade with the momentum
  • #12,379
  • Edited 1:24am May 13, 2011 12:54am | Edited 1:24am
quick scalp because of this chart... looking to retest at least DP
Long@6266 TP 6285 SL 6226

EDIT: wow, 0,1pips to TP, great, hope this will be closed at BE...great morning...
EDIT2: yep, closed at BE...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 185 KB
  • #12,380
  • May 13, 2011 1:34am May 13, 2011 1:34am
Quoting scurt
quick scalp because of this chart... looking to retest at least DP
Long@6266 TP 6285 SL 6226

EDIT: wow, 0,1pips to TP, great, hope this will be closed at BE...great morning...
EDIT2: yep, closed at BE...
If you're scalping , don't be so rigid with the TPs - especially FO/LO - so much volume coming in it makes the analysis we do normally less effective.
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