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vsa with Malcolm

  • #19,601
  • May 12, 2011 8:41am May 12, 2011 8:41am
Quoting PipPipPip
i spy a high volume wide spread up bar forming on the hourly. ya baby. lets see what happens.
Highest upbar volume since the drop from 1.48-1.49.
  • #19,602
  • May 12, 2011 8:47am May 12, 2011 8:47am
This is all in hindsight. But I marked up a chart to get people's thoughts and opinions. Criticism is welcome. Thanks.

http://i51.tinypic.com/2hhhu69.gif
  • #19,603
  • May 12, 2011 8:56am May 12, 2011 8:56am
Here I only saw weakness in the background aside from stopping volume (SV). Arguably the next candle may be deemed a squat. But since then I only saw weakness. What did I miss?

http://i52.tinypic.com/bi9urn.gif
  • #19,604
  • May 12, 2011 9:00am May 12, 2011 9:00am
Lowest close is NS.
  • #19,605
  • May 12, 2011 9:04am May 12, 2011 9:04am
This seemed easier to read. stopping volume, upthrust, and increasing volume on down bars and several NDs for entry. Again, I am very new at this so please criticize. Thanks.

http://i55.tinypic.com/29za8op.gif
  • #19,606
  • May 12, 2011 9:08am May 12, 2011 9:08am
Quoting juhanimi
Lowest close is NS.
Got it. cheers!
  • #19,607
  • May 12, 2011 9:15am May 12, 2011 9:15am
is it safe to say that using any thing less than a 1h TF for a beginer is NOT a good idea?..regards, RB
  • #19,608
  • May 12, 2011 9:23am May 12, 2011 9:23am
Quoting dvarrin
Malcolm,

What do we do during days like today? Do we stay out of any trade? For example for EURUSD the long term trade is down, but today it is going up on M15 (except for a little trade at London opening).

Would you still take a short today if a SOW occurs?
Not Malc but will throw in my 2cents... It all depends on how you trade. Malc trades mainly longer term so he will want to see SOS appear on higher TF to confirm trend change from bears to bulls... If you trade intraday stopping volume or SO and testing on 15min would be enough to find an entry to go long against the trend. Intel who hasn't been around in a bit trades that way... counter-trend getting in on the changes in direction even if only temporary... he goes for 1:1 and collects his profits.

You really need to choose how you want to trade. Myself I take some longer term trades but the bulk of what I do personally is get in off 15min SOS or SOW with entries off the 10 or 5 min charts. With my intraday trades I use longer TF trend as a way to determine whether it could turn into a longer held trade or not.

We were in an uptrend for most of the year so far with only minor retraces but I took long and short trades the whole way up with the swings as price does not move in a straight line.

Trade with the trend first and foremost until you get comfortable. I know some traders who trade intraday but will ONLY take trades matching the 1hr and up trend. So for them they would not have gone long on EU today even though the set-ups may have been there until the longer TF's say we are now in an uptrend again.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,609
  • May 12, 2011 9:27am May 12, 2011 9:27am
Sorry Mal not to have showed any setup !!
Today we got 1.4250 and not 1.4050. But you are right, next time I will explain with VSA setup. Today I just saw that price closed off the low for a few candles with big volume on 15min timeframe. I know it is not enough but I am still learning.
It was countertrend and I need to learn to only follow the trend.
Thanks again Mal for your help...
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  • #19,610
  • May 12, 2011 9:45am May 12, 2011 9:45am
Quoting Robbin Banks
is it safe to say that using any thing less than a 1h TF for a beginer is NOT a good idea?..regards, RB
I learned to trade VSA off 15min and 5 min charts... It's all about how you want to trade. 1hr and up should be safer set-ups but they come with 2 drawbacks IMHO;

  1. Less often set-ups but when they happen they are usually for a good run
  2. Require larger SL as they typically do come with larger TP

Malc does well trading larger TF's and some of us do well on the smaller ones... what type of trading do you want to do?

In all honesty as I continue to get older and my kids get older I will have less and less time to trade and will try and get my head more wrapped around what Malc does so I can spend less time starring at charts...

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,611
  • May 12, 2011 11:00am May 12, 2011 11:00am
there will be up and down days , in fact I saw two signs strength , one in london and one just after news that took eu up 100 pip . I would have taken it if I had time to watch the charts as the second entry was confirmation of strength seen in the London lows ...

It did cause me to close all sell trades thankfully , weeks range low was also 1.4120 and prior support from april . now question is do we take out 1.4280 and move back into 1.44 area.

I am out for balance of week ... got my weekly target and some


Quoting dvarrin
Malcolm,

What do we do during days like today? Do we stay out of any trade? For example for EURUSD the long term trade is down, but today it is going up on M15 (except for a little trade at London opening).

Would you still take a short today if a SOW occurs?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,612
  • May 12, 2011 11:04am May 12, 2011 11:04am
I will explain later why at the time you posted this 8 hours back was NOT the best trade neither was it accumulation per se .... you were under a very high volume down bar form yesterday and had not had the strength confirmed .

I also will trade trend changes but as I have mentioned before i always need to see ocnfirmation of trend change

Quoting letsarb
Sorry Mal not to have showed any setup !!
Today we got 1.4250 and not 1.4050. But you are right, next time I will explain with VSA setup. Today I just saw that price closed off the low for a few candles with big volume on 15min timeframe. I know it is not enough but I am still learning.
It was countertrend and I need to learn to only follow the trend.
Thanks again Mal for your help...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,613
  • May 12, 2011 12:05pm May 12, 2011 12:05pm
hey man could one of you just glance at the A/J and tell me what i SHOULD be seeing...im short and-50 pips and i dont knwo what im looking at ...obviously!!!!..any guidence would really be appreciated...i dont want a hold/close it answer...i want to know what i should be reading here cause clearly im not interputing something correctly...best regards, RB
  • #19,614
  • May 12, 2011 12:20pm May 12, 2011 12:20pm
Quoting Robbin Banks
hey man could one of you just glance at the A/J and tell me what i SHOULD be seeing...im short and-50 pips and i dont knwo what im looking at ...obviously!!!!..any guidence would really be appreciated...i dont want a hold/close it answer...i want to know what i should be reading here cause clearly im not interputing something correctly...best regards, RB
I will look when I get home from work and offer up my opinion... what TF did you enter off?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,615
  • May 12, 2011 1:55pm May 12, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting Robbin Banks
hey man could one of you just glance at the A/J and tell me what i SHOULD be seeing...im short and-50 pips and i dont knwo what im looking at ...obviously!!!!..any guidence would really be appreciated...i dont want a hold/close it answer...i want to know what i should be reading here cause clearly im not interputing something correctly...best regards, RB
Just thought i'd offer up my two cents, not too in depth but this is my first impression on looking at the chart.

I've taken two triggers on the chart from the highest volume bars. One from 02:30am BST last night and one from 13:30 BST today. As you can see, a lot of today's price action was in around Trigger 1 (Red) price reacted to this area a couple of times. Trigger 2 is taken from an up bar which is potentially weakness but if this area is tested from above it can be good for a long. It isn't the best example of a test (probably more a no supply bar) but it looks like it happened here. Price once again reacted to the triggers on the right hand side of the chart.

The low of this screen shot, the test like bar in the centre looks to have had some buying in it as well.

Hope this helps a bit. Pres will probably give you a better run down.

Edit - Didn't you post as Trader_X a minute ago? Where has that gone? I'm sure you said you took the trade off a 15min or have I been looking at charts for too long today?
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  • #19,616
  • May 12, 2011 2:04pm May 12, 2011 2:04pm
first of thanks for the response...yeah..i have a couple of avatars here...but apparently ff is cutting everyone down to one!! not sure why. always had at least 2....but whatever !!! makes things confusing though...anyway so on the aj thing , larger tf , what do you read? to me (4h)i see an attempt to rise but then on the last completed bar, price rose but volume sank..so te me that seems like the steam to run up , ran out!! but im really new to this so im probably wrong..just trying to decide what to do with this trade thats -50 pips!..thanks again for the interputation....TX
no kinsalefx your not seeing things...lol..me and the staff at FF are butting heads at the momment..wont be suprised if they just lock me out!!! but yes i did take it off the 15 m and heres the chart...to me what i saw was these 3 down candles..(highlighted)...on the last candle the volume increased!! so im thinking here we go!...nothing couldve been further from the truth! now i gotta either cut my losses or ride it out..but i dont trust my inturpertations enough to make a sound decision...thanks TX..sorry for the avatar confusion..!!!
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  • #19,617
  • May 12, 2011 2:21pm May 12, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting Trader_X
first of thanks for the response...yeah..i have a couple of avatars here...but apparently ff is cutting everyone down to one!! not sure why. always had at least 2....but whatever !!! makes things confusing though...anyway so on the aj thing , larger tf , what do you read? to me (4h)i see an attempt to rise but then on the last completed bar, price rose but volume sank..so te me that seems like the steam to run up , ran out!! but im really new to this so im probably wrong..just trying to decide what to do with this trade thats -50 pips!..thanks again...
If you look at my chart, the volume doesn't increase on the bar you're talking about. If you're just using a free MT4 feed i can assure you my feed is a little more reliable. But that's besides the point. Looking at your chart, with volume increasing on that bar you should be thinking "increase in volume may mean hidden buying" this is confirmed by the next bar being up, this is a two bar reversal. A potential sign of strength, not weakness.

As for the four hour charts, mine probably starts/finishes at a different time to yours. My current bar has only 40min left in it and whilst there's a bit to go it looks like it could be a low volume test. Potentially more strength. Not overly familiar with 4h charts though.
  • #19,618
  • Edited 3:18pm May 12, 2011 2:58pm | Edited 3:18pm
hmmmm..ok brother thank you for that....clearly i just dont know enough to to be trading this live cause i completely miss read that chart..but look at this 30m chart of the same currency...from the red line right..i see price moving gradually up on decreasing volume...what does this say to you???am i just completely wrong in thinking there is no real demand here?...btw, what charts do you use?...thanks again for your input..TX
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  • #19,619
  • May 12, 2011 3:36pm May 12, 2011 3:36pm
ya know man...after your explanation i can easily see what your telling me.....increased volume with increasing price...then price falls on equal / little less volume and then from there, exactly as you laid it out...hmmm...i really mis- read that...i had a strong bias to short going into this and i believe it seriously skewed my perception!...thanks again for your input....it really cleared things up...now i gotta figure out what to do with this bad trade....hmmmm?...best regards, TX
  • #19,620
  • May 12, 2011 3:42pm May 12, 2011 3:42pm
Quoting Trader_X
first of thanks for the response...yeah..i have a couple of avatars here...but apparently ff is cutting everyone down to one!! not sure why. always had at least 2....but whatever !!! makes things confusing though...anyway so on the aj thing , larger tf , what do you read? to me (4h)i see an attempt to rise but then on the last completed bar, price rose but volume sank..so te me that seems like the steam to run up , ran out!! but im really new to this so im probably wrong..just trying to decide what to do with this trade thats -50 pips!..thanks again...
#1 rule to remember is strength appears in downbars and weaknes in upbars. Increasing volume in a downbar means they are either absorbing demand or we have hidden buyers. Increasing volume on downbars or upbars is not in itself a VSA signal and is not a reason to enter. After those 3 downbars you would want to see a ND or a weak retrace ending with a ND or a test (low volume UT) or even an UT followed by a downbar to confirm the weakness.

That is the biggest mistake many make and how SM traps traders... people see 2 or 3 downbars on increasing volume and jump on short all the while SM has been buying and are ready to head back up.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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