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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #961
  • May 12, 2011 2:26am May 12, 2011 2:26am
Quoting Jazznos
Yes its already looking like a bad idea. In many respects it DOES look like a sensible place to go long. Could be a double bottom forming on the H1 right now for all I can see... May consolidate for a bit too... So im left to wonder if i should cut and run or give it a chance....?
Ok so yes that was pretty dumb..! Like i said earlier my neck is stuffed and im not thinking straight... sticking to that story ;-)
  • #962
  • May 12, 2011 2:39am May 12, 2011 2:39am
the employment data is really disappointing..i get the feeling is US data turned out to be bad, there will be sharp move toward 1.02xx..
  • #963
  • May 12, 2011 3:30am May 12, 2011 3:30am
The AUD/USD at the levels we have seen lately?

Give me a break.

I love Australia...but really....really.

This shit is getting to easy.

Be patient.

Strong Capital.

Nice.
  • #964
  • May 12, 2011 5:40am May 12, 2011 5:40am
Quoting Astroman
The AUD/USD at the levels we have seen lately?

Give me a break.

I love Australia...but really....really.
Do however, need to be mindful of the dead cat bounce, and the fact that US equities closed up off their lows, heading north yesterday. And of course, the fact that the US loves AU - as someone else said, it's the leper with the most fingers left. We'll see what today brings.
  • #965
  • May 12, 2011 6:44am May 12, 2011 6:44am
things are getting slowly ahead US session.
China raise reserve ratio requirements 50bps
Disappointing employment data this morning
will there be risk aversion tonight?
  • #966
  • May 12, 2011 9:36am May 12, 2011 9:36am
Quoting FX-Petra
Added another long @ 1.0705. Stop loss for both lots is 1.0480.

Regards,
Took one more lot long @ 1.0580 on the big dip overnight. Will look to close it @ 1.0700 and let the other two run. We'll see what happens!

Regards,
  • #967
  • May 12, 2011 5:24pm May 12, 2011 5:24pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Took one more lot long @ 1.0580 on the big dip overnight. Will look to close it @ 1.0700 and let the other two run. We'll see what happens!

Regards,
Good trading. I cant believe i went short there. If i can just stop these stupid impulsive trades I'll be home free...!

I know youve been around here for years - read on your profile that you find all systems to have negative expectancy... so are you just trading s/r? Or how have you survived this long??!
  • #968
  • May 12, 2011 5:44pm May 12, 2011 5:44pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd daily.gif Size: 158 KB


Lets see if buyers can bid this up.

Cheers
  • #969
  • May 12, 2011 6:07pm May 12, 2011 6:07pm
Morning all..

Target at 1.0560 first objective met..

1.0710 shud cap and would look to sell into strength there..
suggest SL above 1.0740 and reset short at 1.0775-85 level

Downside support shud be ard 1.0590-10 zone clear break of 1.0550-60 spells danger signs for 1.0480 and then target towards 1.0370

Happy punting...
  • #970
  • May 12, 2011 6:43pm May 12, 2011 6:43pm
Quantitative Easing 2, a euphanism for monetizing the US debt, is scheduled to end on June 30. This is Bernanke's program to buy $600 billion in US bonds, using freshly printed Dollars. Expect bond prices to fall and interest rates to rise as a result. When QE1 ended, the stock market slid and so did the carry trade including AUD/USD. As the $15 billion per week from the Fed ends, expect the excess Dollars to disappear quickly into bank vaults around the world, leaving a shortage of $'s.
It takes buying to drive up prices; but it does not take selling to drive them down. When volume drys up, gravity steps in and prices fall under their own weight. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
At the same time, the US is bumping up against the debt ceiling. Republican Speaker of the House Boehner is demanding $trillions of cuts in government spending in return for raising the debt limit. Obama is saying no.
I plan to move my 401k from stocks into a money market fund before 6/30. I shall also be expecting the carry trade to unwind after 6/30.
  • #971
  • May 12, 2011 9:40pm May 12, 2011 9:40pm
China raise its reserve requirement again.
Au do not react much to this news..
But do pay attention to Shang Hai composite.
Any significant weakness to this composite will bring Au down further.

Au trade @ 1.0638 now...
  • #972
  • May 12, 2011 9:44pm May 12, 2011 9:44pm
Aud/Usd - Trend:

All my technical indicator are in red / Oversold.
1-hour trending turn to be neutral.
1-day trending turn to be slightly bearish.

Overall - it is a shorting period.
I will watch for a significant level to Long again (to cover my 1.0478 closed entry...)
  • #973
  • May 13, 2011 5:56am May 13, 2011 5:56am
Cup and Handle forming on EUR/AUD. The rule is that this retracement on the handle should stop around 50% and then explode north (i.e. AU going short big time). If the retracement is more than 50% the pattern is invalidated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud30m.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #974
  • May 13, 2011 7:39am May 13, 2011 7:39am
Quoting FX-Petra
Took one more lot long @ 1.0580 on the big dip overnight. Will look to close it @ 1.0700 and let the other two run. We'll see what happens!

Regards,
Closed my 0580 @ 0700 as planned. Holding my 2 lots from 0702 for more upside.

regards,
  • #975
  • May 13, 2011 7:55am May 13, 2011 7:55am
Quoting Jazznos
Good trading. I cant believe i went short there. If i can just stop these stupid impulsive trades I'll be home free...!

I know youve been around here for years - read on your profile that you find all systems to have negative expectancy... so are you just trading s/r? Or how have you survived this long??!
Yes, I believe all short term (daytrading) efforts will end in failure. I rarely open a trade with the intention of closing it the same day... although it does happen occasionally. Over 50% of my trades are open 5 days or longer, and some go on for weeks at a time.

Regards,
  • #976
  • May 13, 2011 10:12am May 13, 2011 10:12am
Quoting FX-Petra
Closed my 0580 @ 0700 as planned. Holding my 2 lots from 0702 for more upside.

regards,
Here we go again. Bought another lot @ 0590. We'll see where she goes!

Regards!
  • #977
  • May 13, 2011 10:50am May 13, 2011 10:50am
1.05750 is a possible buy zone, if UCHF chokes here on the 200 ema 4H. Nasty session, lot of big holes blown in lots of accounts, hope you guys are ok.

btw, UCHF has a small gap right at the bottom of this up move @ 0.88000. I'm also still half expecting it to hit 0.84350 (161.8 fib) before the serious push north begins. But it isn't outside the realm of the possible that it could make a run early.
  • #978
  • May 13, 2011 1:24pm May 13, 2011 1:24pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Here we go again. Bought another lot @ 0590. We'll see where she goes!

Regards!
Joined you at 1.0585

M15:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0074.png Size: 40 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #979
  • May 13, 2011 6:49pm May 13, 2011 6:49pm
Looking at AUD/USD on the daily, do I see a double bottom bouncing off of the 50 ma? Or do I see a head and shoulders formation? Must be my imagination, maybe. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
  • #980
  • Edited 10:20pm May 15, 2011 5:28pm | Edited 10:20pm
Looks like 1.05 is an interim support area. If the daily candle breaks this support line price should find buyers down in the red rectangle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd daily.gif Size: 159 KB


Lets see later in the day on directions.

Cheers
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