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  • #941
  • May 11, 2011 7:59pm May 11, 2011 7:59pm
Quoting lasty
I have a couple of tech heads that I know who came up with a similar level.. Its always good to have a couple who dont know each others work
Dont ask me how they came to it.. Cos they are both crackers but good at drawing lines..
Well it was a good place to bail out of a long... just surprised by the drop on everything... Anyhow im staying out for the time being... slept badly and my neck is cactus, cant think straight... are you gonna punt on the news?
  • #942
  • May 11, 2011 8:11pm May 11, 2011 8:11pm
Quoting Jazznos
Well it was a good place to bail out of a long... just surprised by the drop on everything... Anyhow im staying out for the time being... slept badly and my neck is cactus, cant think straight... are you gonna punt on the news?
Yes will place order to sell near mild resistance at 1.0740 on a lucky bounce as well and again at 1.0780-00

The real winner was GBP/AUD Im kicking myself for not getting on that one in the low 1.50's
  • #943
  • May 11, 2011 8:26pm May 11, 2011 8:26pm
Key Event on the risk.
Employment data and Unemployment rate.

Eye focus on this event for the possible rate hike in June for good data.

A 4.8% unemployment rate (market expectations 4.9%) or over 30000 increase in jobs (concensus of around 18000 increase) could be worth 50pips higher on the Aussie vs the USD while jobs increase of less than 10000 could
spark a similar size decline.

Good luck to all traders.
  • #944
  • May 11, 2011 8:29pm May 11, 2011 8:29pm
Quoting lasty
Yes will place order to sell near mild resistance at 1.0740 on a lucky bounce as well and again at 1.0780-00

The real winner was GBP/AUD Im kicking myself for not getting on that one in the low 1.50's
Have never tried other AUD crosses.. hows the movement? volatility etc?
  • #945
  • May 11, 2011 8:34pm May 11, 2011 8:34pm
Aussie total employment fall ~ -22100.
it is not surprise that Aussie drop 90 pips after the news.

Aussie trade @ 1.0616 now..
This should signal lower probability of rate hike in June.
  • #946
  • May 11, 2011 8:37pm May 11, 2011 8:37pm
Quoting Jazznos
Have never tried other AUD crosses.. hows the movement? volatility etc?
Choppy.. but a level like 1.5000 historical low .. psych point... worth a punt.. just reduce the trade size and
  • #947
  • May 11, 2011 8:41pm May 11, 2011 8:41pm
Quoting evelee8
Aussie total employment fall ~ -22100.
it is not surprise that Aussie drop 90 pips after the news.

Aussie trade @ 1.0616 now..
This should signal lower probability of rate hike in June.
I think even if it was a good number AUD would have struggled.



Next target 1.0560 then 1.0480-00
  • #948
  • May 11, 2011 8:42pm May 11, 2011 8:42pm
Welcome to Aussie's two tiered economy. The resources sector, and then everything else. The everything else part has been on it's way to the toilet for some time, most Aussie's already know this. At least the rest of the world is now getting a clearer picture of the disparity that exists.

There were incidentally, bear flags on the S&P and Oil charts yesterday. This south traffic should continue for some time. So far it is behaving in classic fashion.

The chart is the bear flag on the S&P (CFD's).
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  • #949
  • May 11, 2011 10:35pm May 11, 2011 10:35pm
No serious buyers or sellers at present level.
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Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd daily.gif Size: 160 KB

Cheers
  • #950
  • Edited 11:18pm May 11, 2011 10:50pm | Edited 11:18pm
we are about 50% retracement on the 90 pips down...i am shorting now.


...so much for that idea...im flat again
  • #951
  • May 11, 2011 11:32pm May 11, 2011 11:32pm
just broke out; looks like it is going up today:
long @ 1.0645 stop @ 1.0615

going to bed!
  • #952
  • May 11, 2011 11:42pm May 11, 2011 11:42pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
just broke out; looks like it is going up today:
long @ 1.0645 stop @ 1.0615

going to bed!
I hope you dont toss and turn in bed like your AUD possie's..
  • #953
  • May 11, 2011 11:42pm May 11, 2011 11:42pm
Mistake.
Closed Long 1.0478 entry @ 1.0610 (132 pips) on technical reversal indicator by adjusting my TP.

Lesson learn:
should wait and see the further 1-hour market movement instead of adjust the TP for so fast.

After trading for so long - I am still making this easy mistake which is the hardest thing to be controlled by human - MIND rational thinking.
  • #954
  • May 11, 2011 11:47pm May 11, 2011 11:47pm
Quoting lasty
I think even if it was a good number AUD would have struggled.



Next target 1.0560 then 1.0480-00
If it is a good number - the Aus will rise for ~50 pips - accompany with the higher probability on rate hike in June. This is the main concern for all banker and the market player. It is more likely to hit 1.0860 resistance level.

If it is the other case - the Aussie will trembling down. followed by not a possible rate hike in June - it will send Aussie further down which it breaks the 1.06 resistance level. This is a double suicidal news to Aussie.
  • #955
  • May 12, 2011 12:11am May 12, 2011 12:11am
Quoting evelee8
If it is a good number - the Aus will rise for ~50 pips - accompany with the higher probability on rate hike in June. This is the main concern for all banker and the market player. It is more likely to hit 1.0860 resistance level.

If it is the other case - the Aussie will trembling down. followed by not a possible rate hike in June - it will send Aussie further down which it breaks the 1.06 resistance level. This is a double suicidal news to Aussie.
The Aussie was under pressure from the get go.. a good number would have presented better levels to sell it..
USD gaining strength across the board.
Problem lies with China.. Less tightening means slowdown.. That was warning yesterday.. RBA will be looking closely at that rather than employment numbers.
Economists are brazenly suggesting 2 rate hikes this year.. If China doesnt perform we will be having rate cuts..
The economy is two tier... one tier is woeful but is being gloss over by the resource sector..If that tap gets turned off look out below.
  • #956
  • May 12, 2011 12:21am May 12, 2011 12:21am
Youth unemployment (in my state) is running at 17.8%. Worse in other states.

Swannie's budget speech told the story in advance - wants to share the resources sector joy around because the rest of our economy is in pain due to the high AUD hurting exports and tourism, i.e. shrinking job supply + the real estate sector is on the slide, raising rates would kill this off altogether, not to mention be political suicide.

Swan wants to compel more young people into more useless training because this is where AU hides it's unemployed. If they are doing 15 hours a week of training, they are off the unemployment list.

Now add to this, China is talking about cutting rates. AU will very likely have to follow suit to arrest the rot that is setting in to the non-resources sector of our economy.
  • #957
  • May 12, 2011 12:26am May 12, 2011 12:26am
Quoting Jade Gate
Youth unemployment (in my state) is running at 17.8%. Worse in other states.

Swannie's budget speech told the story in advance - wants to share the resources sector joy around because the rest of our economy is in pain due to the high AUD hurting exports and tourism, i.e. shrinking job supply + the real estate sector is on the slide, raising rates would kill this off altogether, not to mention be political suicide.

Swan wants to compel more young people into more useless training because this where AU hides it's unemployed. If they are doing...
  • #958
  • May 12, 2011 1:57am May 12, 2011 1:57am
Am short @ 1.0598 based on 50% retracement from previous down move, ABCD... then breakout confirmation through a few 19.1 support fibs around the area... may be a bit of a punt given further support not too far below, but im wanting to get out around 1.0545-50 region...
  • #959
  • May 12, 2011 2:09am May 12, 2011 2:09am
UCHF has run into a 200 ema brick wall here - if it can't break through (which it may not, given doubts about the USD and given upcoming data speculation) we may see some retracement here (or not).

When market runs short really hot, the bulls are generally not convinced and often see certain levels as a buying opportunity. Just take some care, shorting at this point in the lead up to US equities is not always a good plan. (Because the perennial optimists don't quit in a hurry and because there is a not insignificant risk that the USD will not be supported even if equities run short).
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  • #960
  • May 12, 2011 2:16am May 12, 2011 2:16am
Yes its already looking like a bad idea. In many respects it DOES look like a sensible place to go long. Could be a double bottom forming on the H1 right now for all I can see... May consolidate for a bit too... So im left to wonder if i should cut and run or give it a chance....?
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