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vsa with Malcolm

  • #19,541
  • May 11, 2011 2:15pm May 11, 2011 2:15pm
The great and fearless leader of our forum malcomb went on record and called this drop almost perfectly (well done).

I have posted a chart on my views of what we should see in the market withing the next 48 hours. There has been a definite paradigm shift in the markets concerning the Euro and its problems at home. Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting traders and institutions starting to re-balance their positions in the cross which has been reflected by the drop. A lot of talk has been made of the 4150 level and its importance as support.

The drop in the last 24 hours has been significant and I will be looking for a pullback and a short around the 4275 area. I will be watching the 15 min time frame for a nd or most preferably a low volume test to see if supply in this area is gone. First target would be 4150 and if broken 4000.

Don't trade vsa though, volume doesn't exist we are stupid.
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  • #19,542
  • May 11, 2011 2:19pm May 11, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
The great and fearless leader of our forum malcomb went on record and called this drop almost perfectly (well done).

I have posted a chart on my views of what we should see in the market withing the next 48 hours. There has been a definite paradigm shift in the markets concerning the Euro and its problems at home. Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting traders and institutions starting to re-balance their positions in the cross which has been reflected by the drop. A lot of talk has been made of the 4150 level and its importance as support.

The...
Volume? Is that what we are trading with here? Man I thought that histogram at the bottom of my chart was a live feed from my brokers MACD-ometer.

Good god you guys are all crazy
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,543
  • May 11, 2011 2:21pm May 11, 2011 2:21pm
ok thanks...i understand!!!..basically your telling me is the es /eu thing is like a confirmation ...the 2 out of sync , on a larger tf, combined with more definate vsa signals agreeing with a direction would be a strong analogy..is that correct?..es/eu is more of an overall guid kinda thing..regards, RB
  • #19,544
  • May 11, 2011 2:27pm May 11, 2011 2:27pm
I have never considered the correlation of any charts to be honest

Trade the chart you are looking at , correlations can work and they cannot

Quoting Robbin Banks
ok pres78 thanks for such a detailed explanation...i put up both charts and i see EXACTLY what your saying...yes i was aware of sp500 being future but never traded it and didnt understand the correaltion with eu very well..Now i get it...is it safe to say that when you see such a deviation between the 2 that one way or the other they will both re-sync? is that a correct assumption?..thanks for the reply...RB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,545
  • May 11, 2011 2:28pm May 11, 2011 2:28pm
macd rocks .... HARD SHYT SCUBA MACD trading is the only way to go

OMG eu bounced 30 pip ... lets all go long 6700 here we come ... lol ( joking of course)

I am with sono .. bounce to 4250 / 4280 area is great for a sell if there is a valid HARD SHYT SCUBA MACD sell signal there

Quoting pres78
Volume? Is that what we are trading with here? Man I thought that histogram at the bottom of my chart was a live feed from my brokers MACD-ometer.

Good god you guys are all crazy
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,546
  • May 11, 2011 2:29pm May 11, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting malcolmb14
macd rocks .... HARD SHYT SCUBA MACD trading is the only way to go
Amen to that brother...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,547
  • May 11, 2011 2:33pm May 11, 2011 2:33pm
ok...but now im abit confused i guess...when you said the es/eu thing yesterday took place it was a clue as to what was going to happen..so im taking it that although you saw that and recognized it , it didnt really have a huge impact on your direction bias for today...is that correct?..sorry just trying to wrap my head around what you guys see and how you interput that..i relalize you cant just explain it as 2+2 =4..i know this ..you cant teach "feel"..just trying to get an understanding..appreciate your patients..RB
  • #19,548
  • May 11, 2011 2:38pm May 11, 2011 2:38pm
ya know what..i understand what your telling me i do...i know better than to ever try and trade the correaltion..but i can see where someone new would read that and run off and try to attempt it....i think your just telling me the out sync of the es/eu you saw just added to the move you already saw coming based on vsa..is that about it?..thanks, RB
  • #19,549
  • May 11, 2011 2:40pm May 11, 2011 2:40pm
EU and es were different posts and different charts. I never once thought about them together.

I was expecting a drop in the es due to fridays price action . Yesterday got sold Heavy again at closeo n 30 min chart , right on that 1355 area. That was my line I was watching premarket , in fact had a sell 1354 with 3 point stop

EU is based we had an up move off 1.4260 BUT only got 160 pip higher after a 600 pip down move NOT even 38 % reatrcement and as mentioned yesterday 60 min was being sold into off 1.4380 area....asia ( sneaky chinks) took it up to 1,4420....a not even 38% reatrcement means NO longs , wait for down move and test on a 12 hr , 8 hr , 4 hour what ever time frame you have on mt4 .... and then go long after confirmation of the strength.



Quoting Robbin Banks
ok...but now im abit confused i guess...when you said the es/eu thing yesterday took place it was a clue as to what was going to happen..so im taking it that although you saw that and recognized it , it didnt really have a huge impact on your direction bias for today...is that correct?..sorry just trying to wrap my head around what you guys see and how you interput that..i relalize you cant just explain it as 2+2 =4..i know this ..you cant teach "feel"..just trying to get an understanding..appreciate your patients..RB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,550
  • May 11, 2011 2:52pm May 11, 2011 2:52pm
man ... i must be getting tired...ok ill just keep following along...LOL..i do get what your telling me ..overall..strong move down on eu and weak attempt to rise that eventually failed ...bringing eu down harder...i can see ive got ALOT to learn..could you just put all this into a "blue line crosses the red line" thingy !!!LOL...thanks malcolm , for all your instruction, i know its a pain in the @ss!!!..but it is apprciated!!!..regarsd, RB
  • #19,551
  • May 11, 2011 2:56pm May 11, 2011 2:56pm
malcolm..i see that...e/u 1h being sold at that 4380 area...geez, after you see it i wonder how i coulve NOT seen it!!!LOL...wow , thats kinda cool..regards, robbin
  • #19,552
  • May 11, 2011 6:52pm May 11, 2011 6:52pm
could someone here grade my homework ...on this 30m aj chart...right of the red vertical line...price increased as volume decreased, which tells me there was no real SM money demand behind the move up ..as the small move up lost its drive volume increased and price began to fall , meaning there was an valid increase in supply and sellers...right or wrong?..any critique is appreciated..regards, RB
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  • #19,553
  • May 11, 2011 6:55pm May 11, 2011 6:55pm
Malc, thanks for some great calls and good explanatins... you are sooo good its spooky

Im reading MTM 2nd time now, and will probably start over after finishing.... I understand that the background is important, but when I looked at the PA on 10/5 I noticed the 2 bar reversal you mentioned but the strongest sign IMO was the SO bar right after it... the price never got under it , and it has the highest volume that day...

so for me that day did not sang "weakness" (yes, I will read MTM again ...lol) anyway - I must understand how did you know that the 2 bar reversal is more important then the highst vol-bar that formed after them ??

Quoting malcolmb14
...Go look at a 30 min chart at this area for us session prior day ( 2nd chart) // majors supply in the 4390 area formed a 2 bar reversal in US session

2nd vertical line is the one I entered on today as it was just under my 3380 trigger line and at 4:30 am my time when i wake up , up move with uh volume = supply.....two bar reversal

the weakness showed up prior day at 1,4390 , showed up again start London and contimued into US session ....

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  • #19,554
  • May 11, 2011 7:38pm May 11, 2011 7:38pm
can someone tell me what the magenta colored volume bar means?
and what does "churn" mean as well...thanks for any help..regards, RB
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  • #19,555
  • May 11, 2011 8:08pm May 11, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting Robbin Banks
can someone tell me what the magenta colored volume bar means?
and what does "churn" mean as well...thanks for any help..regards, RB
Here you go. Don't get too bogged down on the colors... focus on the volume and spread... one can trade VSA with all volume bars the same color and be just as successful.
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File Type: pdf Better_Volume_Indicator 2[1].pdf   322 KB | 786 downloads
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,556
  • May 11, 2011 8:33pm May 11, 2011 8:33pm
ok thanks pres78..regards, RB
  • #19,557
  • May 11, 2011 9:22pm May 11, 2011 9:22pm
That candle is a squat down bar on ultra high volume . That is buyers .. not sellers and did in fact knock the market sideways. If i saw that at start of US session i would expect up move and then down move / testing to prove the strength

Most likely it is due to it being the end of london session or something.

Tradeguider did in fact pick it up as stopping volume. However since then price has dropped 100 pip in asia .. hence the requirement to wait for that test / shake out for confirmation of the SOS
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Quoting Robbin Banks
could someone here grade my homework ...on this 30m aj chart...right of the red vertical line...price increased as volume decreased, which tells me there was no real SM money demand behind the move up ..as the small move up lost its drive volume increased and price began to fall , meaning there was an valid increase in supply and sellers...right or wrong?..any critique is appreciated..regards, RB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,558
  • May 11, 2011 9:28pm May 11, 2011 9:28pm
i always look and consider as many time frames as possible ... here is the 2 hour . I think this will clearly show you why I was still bearish . supply hit the market heavy and this bar did not close above 1.3380
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Quoting pipon
Malc, thanks for some great calls and good explanatins... you are sooo good its spooky ...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,559
  • May 11, 2011 9:35pm May 11, 2011 9:35pm
12 hr chart

this kind of set up does not come along every day. There was supply hitting es hard on friday , i mentioned it on the weekend .

Then we had a fake out break out for no apparent reason .... but as soon as that 1355 gave way today , in the words of Magik...timberrrrrrrr

some times take the time to step back / look at higher time frames .. get your heads out of those 1 min charts to see the bigger picture


with all that overhead supply 1300 / 1250 on the cards
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  • #19,560
  • May 11, 2011 9:37pm May 11, 2011 9:37pm
ok over to euro thread to see the train wrecks .... lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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