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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #24,841
  • Edited 12:51pm May 11, 2011 10:48am | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting fti
BOJ can only intervene to stop the diarea markets causing.
If she rallys too much, then will only play into the hand of the specuating masses. thereby attracting new waves of selling to force her hand to give away free money. I feel there's " too big to fails" behind the game. Not know if its with CB blessings. But i suspect is not Nic Leeson.

So she need time her responses well. Already i believe the jap presses are begun printing, so the impact will hit markets. The problem is the printing need consistent managing less they over do and create...
Well put, seems too big too fail only has one blessing from the CB, no one else that I can see would be behind (or is) this type of arrangement.

Regards.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...74A3GZ20110511
  • #24,842
  • May 11, 2011 10:49am May 11, 2011 10:49am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Back in 2008 and 2009 it happened a few times. I remember one time for sure because I got caught. It was news of a emergency FOMC rate reduction. This happened as a surprise before everything really began going to hell and before the market got used to the crisis.

Bottom line the market has way to many black swan events. The worst can really happen at anytime. Just imagine a well timed rescue from the price action were all used to. But instead another flash crash type action takes place and price moves 1,000 pips. This is not impossible. Easily...
Two Thumbs Up GuerillaWar

If I may add to that:-

"Master the instrument, master the music. Then, forget all that shit and play."


Pip Well
Philip
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #24,843
  • Edited 12:19pm May 11, 2011 11:45am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting Sylar
Two Thumbs Up GuerillaWar

If I may add to that:-

"Master the instrument, master the music. Then, forget all that shit and play."


Pip Well
Philip
If i may add...

TAF Trading is like playing the piano first you must learn to play by the rules then you must forget the rules and play from your heart quote.


V

PS: this AU drop kicked my foreign money out...good lesson learned.

PPS: BTW i am recently getting loving to listen lot of acoustic music anyone have some suggestions...

Inserted Video
  • #24,844
  • May 11, 2011 12:30pm May 11, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
If i may add...

TAF Trading is like playing the piano first you must learn to play by the rules then you must forget the rules and play from your heart quote.


V

PS: this AU drop kicked my foreign money out...good lesson learned.

PPS: BTW i am recently getting loving to listen lot of acoustic music anyone have some suggestions...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG0Prs_EqLE
that AU dropp was expected it had been signaling for a while, so you should have been paying attention (i dont mean to be rude, i am a newbie and you might be more experienced than me).

however i feel that i might help you with this criticism, the markets have changed, the hand of the FED and US government is at play.
raising margin requirements for gold and silver was the first clue
is it not AUD a commodity currency?

GBP/ EUR have been dropping and having trouble finding their footing against the green back.

is AUD not a correlating pair? that would have been clue #2

finally the clues where withing AUD itself, watch the conviction of the bullish run.
watch acceleration off the key price level 1.05 as it traveled north it did lost mommentum, decelerating as it reached 1.08,
it tested and retested bullish price levels, not to much thrust in price movement.


no excuse for you not to be watching the market. dont focus on a pair and beleive its completely independent from the overall market.

dollar is strengthening across the board, how far this will go? who knows
is it a corrective impulse or a reversal?

did you see the NFP was positive? slowly but surely the US is finding traction
when the debt ceiling is reached, and congress has to face their inneficency to reduce expenses we MIGHT see another bearish turn for the USD.
or not, depending on the market and how it would like to price that in.

so far.
monetary policy intact
but intervetions are being carried out indirectly through punishing speculators or making it harder for speculators to control so much commodities

oil, silver, gold, have somewhat come down from their highs (mommentarily)
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24,845
  • May 11, 2011 1:30pm May 11, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting tubguy
Hi Piccolo, MetaTrader can be run on Linux quite easily. I have it running on mine. If you have the desire to run it on Linux shoot me a PM and I would be glad to help you get it going.

Mike
what Linux distribution and/or version you are using?
  • #24,846
  • May 11, 2011 1:50pm May 11, 2011 1:50pm
FTI!

Thanks for your guidance and support. About seniority and sincerity I' ll keep that in mind.

MaMood!

Thank you for replying. I feel a bit about the fact that you all have been here for quite some time and have mutually groomed each other. I being a complete stranger......but then the 'demand' to say it all and learn motivates me.

To All,
The news of trade balance of CAD was neutral and that of USD was negative today. The CAD trade balance being neutral or slightly positive meant imports being equal to exports or exports slightly exceeding imports ...........meaning/indicating prevailing weakness in CAD.

Now USD negative trade balance suggests imports exceeding exports, thus indicating prevailing strength of of USD.

The pair USD/CAD however instead of going south went to north.....have I interpreted trade balance rightly?......if yes then why did the pair not go southwards? please comment
  • #24,847
  • May 11, 2011 1:51pm May 11, 2011 1:51pm
Hi friends,

I want to ask you a question. I'm taking that one with me for a long time already. I'm very unsure about your reactions and comments. However - I decided to just ask you. I'm sure you will give me your honest opinion ....

Would it be of any use for you or some newcomer, when I would provide my trading live and in realtime to you? Im trading nearly almost every day and I'm making good profits also nearly every day. So it could give you an idea, how straight it could be to trade the dance actively.

Yeah - I'm aware of possible drawbacks. But I'm very interested in your valuable opinions, especially on fti's comment. I'm not sure, if that would be according to his intension ...

However,
Curious about your reactions.

CU,
Niels
  • #24,848
  • May 11, 2011 2:05pm May 11, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

I want to ask you a question. I'm taking that one with me for a long time already. I'm very unsure about your reactions and comments. However - I decided to just ask you. I'm sure you will give me your honest opinion ....

Would it be of any use for you or some newcomer, when I would provide my trading live and in realtime to you? Im trading nearly almost every day and I'm making good profits also nearly every day. So it could give you an idea, how straight it could be to trade the dance actively.

Yeah - I'm aware of possible drawbacks....

Thanks Niels!
I would be very interested to see your live trading. I do think it would be beneficial to many - especially to new traders.
  • #24,849
  • May 11, 2011 2:10pm May 11, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

I want to ask you a question. I'm taking that one with me for a long time already. I'm very unsure about your reactions and comments. However - I decided to just ask you. I'm sure you will give me your honest opinion ....

Would it be of any use for you or some newcomer, when I would provide my trading live and in realtime to you? Im trading nearly almost every day and I'm making good profits also nearly every day. So it could give you an idea, how straight it could be to trade the dance actively.

Yeah - I'm aware of possible...
I strongly endorse the idea.

Personally throughout my interaction with you when I see come into contact TAF you have help me reinforce and cement what was been taught by Fti within this pages of TAF.

Please continue to do what you can to guide/assist those lost traders' soul


Pip Well
Philip
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #24,850
  • May 11, 2011 2:17pm May 11, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting cuthbert
what Linux distribution and/or version you are using?

Hey cuthbert!

I'm running Linux Mint 10 with a dual boot for Win 7. I only use windows when I have to. Such as on weekends if I want to play with Forex Tester.
  • #24,851
  • May 11, 2011 2:23pm May 11, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

I want to ask you a question. I'm taking that one with me for a long time already. I'm very unsure about your reactions and comments. However - I decided to just ask you. I'm sure you will give me your honest opinion ....

Would it be of any use for you or some newcomer, when I would provide my trading live and in realtime to you? Im trading nearly almost every day and I'm making good profits also nearly every day. So it could give you an idea, how straight it could be to trade the dance actively.

Yeah - I'm aware of possible...

At the moment going through the TAF for the third time, not fully understanding but taking my time but seeing you trade live i know would help me alot. Thanks.
  • #24,852
  • May 11, 2011 3:03pm May 11, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

I want to ask you a question. I'm taking that one with me for a long time already. I'm very unsure about your reactions and comments. However - I decided to just ask you. I'm sure you will give me your honest opinion ....

Would it be of any use for you or some newcomer, when I would provide my trading live and in realtime to you? Im trading nearly almost every day and I'm making good profits also nearly every day. So it could give you an idea, how straight it could be to trade the dance actively.

Yeah - I'm aware of possible drawbacks....

Hi Niels,

I think you know my take on this. LOL

I think it would be great. Most can learn faster by example.

I would however, caution you that it could affect your own trading by pressuring you to perform.

Also need to be aware that anyone in the states cannot trade quite the same as yourself. Such as hedging.

Just a couple of points for consideration.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #24,853
  • May 11, 2011 3:11pm May 11, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

I want to ask you a question. I'm taking that one with me for a long time already. I'm very unsure about your reactions and comments. However - I decided to just ask you. I'm sure you will give me your honest opinion ....

Would it be of any use for you or some newcomer, when I would provide my trading live and in realtime to you? Im trading nearly almost every day and I'm making good profits also nearly every day. So it could give you an idea, how straight it could be to trade the dance actively.

Yeah - I'm aware of possible drawbacks....

Niels,
That would be great, specially since you seem to have really understood FTI's teachings. That would be like running with the torch, only problem is I hope in doing so it doesn't put any unnecessary pressure on you to "perform".
Thanks for the offer, I would love to see you trade live.

Alex
If only I knew then what I know now...
  • #24,854
  • May 11, 2011 3:33pm May 11, 2011 3:33pm
Hi again,

thanx for your very positive response so far.
Just want to give two more inputs:

1. I'm not using hedging as "trading technique" for some time now.
2. About the possible "pressure" when I have to perform publically:
That is just what I take as a very egoistical benefit out of that experiment. I want to create some more pressure and stress on my shoulders to get used to the situation, when trading Other Peoples Money. Have not had any better idea to get closer to that scenario...
I hope you feel not abused by that egoistic intension of mine ....

CU During London session again.

All the best,
Niels
  • #24,855
  • May 11, 2011 3:49pm May 11, 2011 3:49pm
Quoting the redlion
that AU dropp was expected it had been signaling for a while, so you should have been paying attention (i dont mean to be rude, i am a newbie and you might be more experienced than me).

however i feel that i might help you with this criticism, the markets have changed, the hand of the FED and US government is at play.
raising margin requirements for gold and silver was the first clue
is it not AUD a commodity currency?

GBP/ EUR...

Thanks for ur input....


V
  • #24,856
  • May 11, 2011 4:26pm May 11, 2011 4:26pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

thanx for your very positive response so far.
Just want to give two more inputs:

1. I'm not using hedging as "trading technique" for some time now.
2. About the possible "pressure" when I have to perform publically:
That is just what I take as a very egoistical benefit out of that experiment. I want to create some more pressure and stress on my shoulders to get used to the situation, when trading Other Peoples Money. Have not had any better idea to get closer to that scenario...
I hope you feel not abused by that egoistic intension...

Hey Niels,

Seems like you have it well thought out, so I will be more than happy to help you with your "egotistic intentions". You very well may be overwhelmed with people wanting to help as well. You are offering what all new and some older traders dream of. I know I consider it a blessing and an honor. I'm sure others will too.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #24,857
  • May 11, 2011 4:48pm May 11, 2011 4:48pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

thanx for your very positive response so far.
Just want to give two more inputs:

1. I'm not using hedging as "trading technique" for some time now.
2. About the possible "pressure" when I have to perform publically:
That is just what I take as a very egoistical benefit out of that experiment. I want to create some more pressure and stress on my shoulders to get used to the situation, when trading Other Peoples Money. Have not had any better idea to get closer to that scenario...
I hope you feel not abused by that egoistic...
Talent makes capital dance. I just read a book by that name.
  • #24,858
  • May 11, 2011 6:21pm May 11, 2011 6:21pm
Quoting tubguy
Hey Niels,

Seems like you have it well thought out, so I will be more than happy to help you with your "egotistic intentions". You very well may be overwhelmed with people wanting to help as well. You are offering what all new and some older traders dream of. I know I consider it a blessing and an honor. I'm sure others will too.

Good Trading
Mike
Yes Mike, You are 100% correct. We can "help" Niels to be stressed out very easily, of course if He wishes so.
But seriously, it would be a blessing and an honor as you pointed out.
Regards,
Jaro
  • #24,859
  • Edited 10:52pm May 11, 2011 7:43pm | Edited 10:52pm
I would not mind, but I am afraid that carbon copies will be made that do not reflect our capabilities. A little knowledge is dangerous. Never the less I would like to watch your trading as I tend to have a very "close to the market" style as you do. Please let me know when you decide to do this. It is summer vacation over here and this is perfect timing.

Additionally, I would like to speak about troop calculations and the MO in general with you when you have the time. I have not been actively trading for a while now, though I have been running demos. A quick "refresher" would be great, especially now that I plan to start a small account live within this month.

EDIT: on second thought, perhaps it is better if you stick to yourself, who knows what your experiment could do to your mindset? Perhaps it is best to wait for fti's response, but common sense indicates that it's going to be difficult to trade and be watched at the same time. There must be better ways to test your stress. When you are trading other people's money publicly, you should only need to worry about your account and what you are doing. You seem pretty capable and confident already. You should be able to do what you need to do, so long as you keep up your mindset as you do normally. If you start competing beyond your capabilities, the mindset dies and you are prone to make bad decisions. Also, you'll be performing publicly anyways, so you'll get your experience soon enough. This seems less of a stress issue than a confidence issue. Just do what you do normally and you are all good.


Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

I want to ask you a question. I'm taking that one with me for a long time already. I'm very unsure about your reactions and comments. However - I decided to just ask you. I'm sure you will give me your honest opinion ....

Would it be of any use for you or some newcomer, when I would provide my trading live and in realtime to you? Im trading nearly almost every day and I'm making good profits also nearly every day. So it could give you an idea, how straight it could be to trade the dance actively.

Yeah - I'm aware of possible...
  • #24,860
  • May 12, 2011 12:39am May 12, 2011 12:39am
Hedging.
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